Estimation and inference under economic restrictions

Estimation of economic relationships often requires imposition of constraints such as positivity or monotonicity on each observation. Methods to impose such constraints, however, vary depending upon the estimation technique employed. We describe a general methodology to impose (observation-specific) constraints for the class of linear regression estimators using a method known as constraint weighted bootstrapping. While this method has received attention in the nonparametric regression literature, we show how it can be applied for both parametric and nonparametric estimators. A benefit of this method is that imposing numerous constraints simultaneously can be performed seamlessly. We apply this method to Norwegian dairy farm data to estimate both unconstrained and constrained parametric and nonparametric models.

Message-passing for inference and optimization of real variables on sparse graphs

The inference and optimization in sparse graphs with real variables is studied using methods of statistical mechanics. Efficient distributed algorithms for the resource allocation problem are devised. Numerical simulations show excellent performance and full agreement with the theoretical results. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006.

Variational mean-field algorithm for efficient inference in large systems of stochastic differential equations

This work introduces a Gaussian variational mean-field approximation for inference in dynamical systems which can be modeled by ordinary stochastic differential equations. This new approach allows one to express the variational free energy as a functional of the marginal moments of the approximating Gaussian process. A restriction of the moment equations to piecewise polynomial functions, over time, dramatically reduces the complexity of approximate inference for stochastic differential equation models and makes it comparable to that of discrete time hidden Markov models. The algorithm is demonstrated on state and parameter estimation for nonlinear problems with up to 1000 dimensional state vectors and compares the results empirically with various well-known inference methodologies.

Parallelization of Logical Inference for Confluent Rule-based System

* This paper was made according to the program № 14 of fundamental scientific research of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the project 06-I-П14-052

Tail Inference for a Law in a Max-Semistable Domain of Attraction

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62G32, 62G05.

Statistical Inference for Processes Depending on Environments and Application in Regenerative Processes

We build the Conditional Least Squares Estimator of 0 based on the observation of a single trajectory of {Zk,Ck}k, and give conditions ensuring its strong consistency. The particular case of general linear models according to 0=( 0, 0) and among them, regenerative processes, are studied more particularly. In this frame, we may also prove the consistency of the estimator of 0 although it belongs to an asymptotic negligible part of the model, and the asymptotic law of the estimator may also be calculated.

Inference of helicopter airframe condition

The goal of this paper is to model normal airframe conditions for helicopters in order to detect changes. This is done by inferring the flying state using a selection of sensors and frequency bands that are best for discriminating between different states. We used non-linear state-space models (NLSSM) for modelling flight conditions based on short-time frequency analysis of the vibration data and embedded the models in a switching framework to detect transitions between states. We then created a density model (using a Gaussian mixture model) for the NLSSM innovations: this provides a model for normal operation. To validate our approach, we used data with added synthetic abnormalities which was detected as low-probability periods. The model of normality gave good indications of faults during the flight, in the form of low probabilities under the model, with high accuracy (>92 %). © 2013 IEEE.

Phylogenetic and ontogenetic influences on the distribution of anthocyanins and betacyanins in leaves of tropical plants

We examined the anatomy of expanding, mature, and senescing leaves of tropical plants for the presence of red pigments: anthocyanins and betacyanins. We studied 463 species in total, 370 genera, belonging to 94 families. This included 21 species from five families in the Caryophyllales, where betacyanins are the basis for red color. We also included 14 species of ferns and gymnosperms in seven families and 29 species with undersurface coloration at maturity. We analyzed 399 angiosperm species (74 families) for factors (especially developmental and evolutionary) influencing anthocyanin production during expansion and senescence. During expansion, 44.9% produced anthocyanins and only 13.5% during senescence. At both stages, relatively few patterns of tissue distributions developed, primarily in the mesophyll, and very few taxa produced anthocyanins in dermal and ground tissue simultaneously. Of the 35 species producing anthocyanins both in development and senescence, most had similar cellular distributions. Anthocyanin distributions were identical in different developing leaves of three heteroblastic taxa. Phylogeny has influenced the distribution of anthocyanins in the epidermis and mesophyll of expanding leaves and the palisade parenchyma during senescence, although these influences are not strong. Betacyanins appear to have similar distributions in leaves of taxa within the Caryophyllales and, perhaps, similar functions. The presence of anthocyanins in the mesophyll of so many species is inconsistent with the hypothesis of protection against UV damage or fungal pathogens, and the differing tissue distributions indicate that the pigments may function in different ways, as in photoprotection and freeradical scavenging.

Phylogenetic and ecological significance in the evolution of Cetacean tonal sounds

Cetaceans are aquatic mammals that rely primarily on sound for most daily tasks. A compendium of sounds is emitted for orientation, prey detection, and predator avoidance, and to communicate. Communicative sounds are among the most studied Cetacean signals, particularly those referred to as tonal sounds. Because tonal sounds have been studied especially well in social dolphins, it has been assumed these sounds evolved as a social adaptation. However, whistles have been reported in ‘solitary’ species and have been secondarily lost three times in social lineages. Clearly, therefore, it is necessary to examine closely the association, if any, between whistles and sociality instead of merely assuming it. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolutionary history of Cetacean tonal sounds. The main goal of this dissertation is to cast light on the evolutionary history of tonal sounds by testing these hypotheses by combining comparative phylogenetic and field methods. This dissertation provides the first species-level phylogeny of Cetacea and phylogenetic tests of evolutionary hypotheses of cetacean communicative signals. Tonal sounds evolution is complex in that has likely been shaped by a combination of factors that may influence different aspects of their acoustical structure. At the inter-specific level, these results suggest that only tonal sound minimum frequency is constrained by body size. Group size also influences tonal sound minimum frequency. Species that live in large groups tend to produce higher frequency tonal sounds. The evolutionary history of tonal sounds and sociality may be intertwined, but in a complex manner rejecting simplistic views such as the hypothesis that tonal sounds evolved ‘for’ social communication in dolphins. Levels of social and tonal sound complexity nevertheless correlate indicating the importance of tonal sounds in social communication. At the intraspecific level, tonal sound variation in frequency and temporal parameters may be product of genetic isolation and local levels of underwater noise. This dissertation provides one of the first insights into the evolution of Cetacean tonal sounds in a phylogenetic context, and points out key species where future studies would be valuable to enrich our understanding of other factors also playing a role in tonal sound evolution. ^

Phylogenetic analysis of within -host serially-sampled viral data

The primary goal of this dissertation is the study of patterns of viral evolution inferred from serially-sampled sequence data, i.e., sequence data obtained from strains isolated at consecutive time points from a single patient or host. RNA viral populations have an extremely high genetic variability, largely due to their astronomical population sizes within host systems, high replication rate, and short generation time. It is this aspect of their evolution that demands special attention and a different approach when studying the evolutionary relationships of serially-sampled sequence data. New methods that analyze serially-sampled data were developed shortly after a groundbreaking HIV-1 study of several patients from which viruses were isolated at recurring intervals over a period of 10 or more years. These methods assume a tree-like evolutionary model, while many RNA viruses have the capacity to exchange genetic material with one another using a process called recombination. ^ A genealogy involving recombination is best described by a network structure. A more general approach was implemented in a new computational tool, Sliding MinPD, one that is mindful of the sampling times of the input sequences and that reconstructs the viral evolutionary relationships in the form of a network structure with implicit representations of recombination events. The underlying network organization reveals unique patterns of viral evolution and could help explain the emergence of disease-associated mutants and drug-resistant strains, with implications for patient prognosis and treatment strategies. In order to comprehensively test the developed methods and to carry out comparison studies with other methods, synthetic data sets are critical. Therefore, appropriate sequence generators were also developed to simulate the evolution of serially-sampled recombinant viruses, new and more through evaluation criteria for recombination detection methods were established, and three major comparison studies were performed. The newly developed tools were also applied to "real" HIV-1 sequence data and it was shown that the results represented within an evolutionary network structure can be interpreted in biologically meaningful ways. ^

Serial evolutionary networks of within-patient HIV-1 sequences reveal patterns of evolution of X4 strains

Background The HIV virus is known for its ability to exploit numerous genetic and evolutionary mechanisms to ensure its proliferation, among them, high replication, mutation and recombination rates. Sliding MinPD, a recently introduced computational method [1], was used to investigate the patterns of evolution of serially-sampled HIV-1 sequence data from eight patients with a special focus on the emergence of X4 strains. Unlike other phylogenetic methods, Sliding MinPD combines distance-based inference with a nonparametric bootstrap procedure and automated recombination detection to reconstruct the evolutionary history of longitudinal sequence data. We present serial evolutionary networks as a longitudinal representation of the mutational pathways of a viral population in a within-host environment. The longitudinal representation of the evolutionary networks was complemented with charts of clinical markers to facilitate correlation analysis between pertinent clinical information and the evolutionary relationships. Results Analysis based on the predicted networks suggests the following:: significantly stronger recombination signals (p = 0.003) for the inferred ancestors of the X4 strains, recombination events between different lineages and recombination events between putative reservoir virus and those from a later population, an early star-like topology observed for four of the patients who died of AIDS. A significantly higher number of recombinants were predicted at sampling points that corresponded to peaks in the viral load levels (p = 0.0042). Conclusion Our results indicate that serial evolutionary networks of HIV sequences enable systematic statistical analysis of the implicit relations embedded in the topology of the structure and can greatly facilitate identification of patterns of evolution that can lead to specific hypotheses and new insights. The conclusions of applying our method to empirical HIV data support the conventional wisdom of the new generation HIV treatments, that in order to keep the virus in check, viral loads need to be suppressed to almost undetectable levels.

Phylogenetic and Ecological Significance in the Evolution of Cetacean Tonal Sounds

Cetaceans are aquatic mammals that rely primarily on sound for most daily tasks. A compendium of sounds is emitted for orientation, prey detection, and predator avoidance, and to communicate. Communicative sounds are among the most studied Cetacean signals, particularly those referred to as tonal sounds. Because tonal sounds have been studied especially well in social dolphins, it has been assumed these sounds evolved as a social adaptation. However, whistles have been reported in ‘solitary’ species and have been secondarily lost three times in social lineages. Clearly, therefore, it is necessary to examine closely the association, if any, between whistles and sociality instead of merely assuming it. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolutionary history of Cetacean tonal sounds. The main goal of this dissertation is to cast light on the evolutionary history of tonal sounds by testing these hypotheses by combining comparative phylogenetic and field methods. This dissertation provides the first species-level phylogeny of Cetacea and phylogenetic tests of evolutionary hypotheses of cetacean communicative signals. Tonal sounds evolution is complex in that has likely been shaped by a combination of factors that may influence different aspects of their acoustical structure. At the inter-specific level, these results suggest that only tonal sound minimum frequency is constrained by body size. Group size also influences tonal sound minimum frequency. Species that live in large groups tend to produce higher frequency tonal sounds. The evolutionary history of tonal sounds and sociality may be intertwined, but in a complex manner rejecting simplistic views such as the hypothesis that tonal sounds evolved ‘for’ social communication in dolphins. Levels of social and tonal sound complexity nevertheless correlate indicating the importance of tonal sounds in social communication. At the intraspecific level, tonal sound variation in frequency and temporal parameters may be product of genetic isolation and local levels of underwater noise. This dissertation provides one of the first insights into the evolution of Cetacean tonal sounds in a phylogenetic context, and points out key species where future studies would be valuable to enrich our understanding of other factors also playing a role in tonal sound evolution.

Geochemistry, fatty acid content and phylogenetic affiliation of soil samples from Livingston Island, South Shetland Archipelago, Antarctica

Microorganisms inhabit very different soil habitats in the ice-free areas of Antarctica, playing a major role in nutrient cycling in cold environments. We studied the soil characteristics and the dominant bacterial composition from nine different soil profiles located on Livingston Island (maritime Antarctica). The total carbon (TC) and total nitrogen (TN) values were high for the vegetated soils, decreasing with depth, whereas the values for the mineral soils were generally low. Soil pH was more acidic for moss-covered soils and neutral to alkaline for mineral soils. Numbers of culturable heterotrophic bacteria were higher at vegetated sites, but significant numbers were also detectable in carbon-depleted soils. Patterns of denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) revealed a highly heterogeneous picture throughout the soil profiles. Subsequent sequencing of DGGE bands revealed in total 252 sequences that could be assigned to 114 operational taxonomic units, showing the dominance of members of the Bacteroidetes and Acidobacteria. The results of phospholipid fatty acid analysis showed a lack of unsaturated fatty acids for most of the samples. Samples with a prevalence of unsaturated over saturated fatty acids were restricted to several surface samples. Statistical analysis showed that the dominant soil bacterial community composition is most affected by TC and TN contents and soil physical factors such as grain size and moisture, but not pH. Keywords

Phylogenetic relationships among hadal amphipods of the Superfamily Lysianassoidea : Implications for taxonomy and biogeography

Date of Acceptance: 30/8/15 Acknowledgements We thank the chief scientists, crew and company of the Japanese RV Hakuho-Maru (KH0703 and KH0803), the RV Tansei-Maru (KT-09-03), the RV Kairei (KR0716), the German FS Sonne (SO197 and SO 209) and the New Zealand RV Kaharoa (KAH0190, KAH1109, KAH1202, KAH1301 and KAH1310). This work was supported by the HADEEP projects, funded by the Nippon Foundation, Japan (2009765188), the Natural Environmental Research Council, UK (NE/E007171/1) and the Total Foundation, France. We acknowledge additional support from the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS) funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Ref: HR09011) and contributing institutions. We also acknowledge support from the Leverhulme Research Fellowship granted to SBP. Additional sea time was supported by NIWA’s ‘Impact of Resource Use on Vulnerable Deep-Sea Communities’ project (CO1_0906). From NIWA we thank Malcolm Clark, Ashley Rowden, Kareen Schnabel, Sadie Mills for logistical support at the NIWA Invertebrate Collection. We also thank Fredrik Søreide from Promare, USA, for supply of the Puerto-Rico samples, Marius Wenzel for helpful comments on manuscript drafts, and Dr. Tammy Horton (NOCS, UK) for identifying some of the earlier amphipod samples