991 resultados para Perspectives futures


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From the 1950s up to the early 1990s the All-India data show an ever-declining share of informal credit in the total outstanding debt of rural households. Contemporaneous micro-level studies, using more qualitative research methodologies, provide evidence that questions the strength of this trend, and more recent All-India credit surveys show, first, a levelling, and then a rise, in the share of rural informal credit in 1990/91 and 2000/01, respectively. By reference to findings of a study of village moneylenders in Rajasthan, the paper notes lessons to be drawn. First, informal financial agents have not disappeared from the rural financial landscape in India. Second, formal-sector financial institutions can learn much about rural financial service needs from the financial products and processes of their informal counterparts. Third, a national survey of informal agents, similar to that of the 1921 Census survey of indigenous bankers and moneylenders, would provide valuable pointers towards policy options for the sector. A recent Reserve Bank of India Report on Moneylender Legislation not only explores incentive mechanisms to better ensure fair practice, but also proposes provision for a new category of loan providers that would explicitly link the rural informal and formal financial sectors.

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The Mediterranean region is one of the major centres of origin and diversification of cultivated plants and many crop wild relatives are found there. In addition, many native species are still widely harvested from the wild for food, medicine and other uses and some of these have potential for development as alternative crop especially in marginal zones. While there have been several recent initiatives that address the cataloguing and conservation of these species, such as the Network on Identification, Conservation and Use of Wild Plants in the Mediterranean Region (MEDUSA and the Bioversity International (IPGRI) studies on Underutilized Mediterranean Species (VMS), no comprehensive assessment has yet been made and little work undertaken on their agricultural potential. It has been confidently predicted that consequences of global change in the Mediterranean region - population movements and migrations, changes in disturbance regimes, and climate change - will be serious. One the one hand, this will affect the survival prospects of many of these underutilized species and on the other hand it will enhance their importance as the source of potential new crop germplasm. The conservation and availability of genetic diversity of both crops and underutilized species is essential if we are to be able to meet the increasing demand for food and other crops that will be adapted to the new ecoclimatic envelopes that will develop in the region as a consequence of global change. The rapid rate of climatic and other change that is expected adds urgency to the task of assessing, conserving and sustainably using this rich diversity of wild species of economic value in the region but new strategies will be need to be developed to achieve this. The Mediterranean region has the potential of becoming a major source of new crop development in the coming decades.

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Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A review is given of the major conceptual changes that have taken place during the last 50 years in our understanding of the nature of plant conservation and of the principal methodological advances in undertaking conservation assessments and actions, largely through the incorporation of tools and techniques from other disciplines. The interrelationships between conservation and sustainable use are considered as well as the impact of the development of the discipline of conservation biology, the effects of the general acceptance of the concept of biodiversity and the practical implications of the implementation of the Convention on Biological diversity. The effect on conservation policy and management of the accelerating loss or conversion of habitats throughout the world and approaches for combating this are discussed.

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The UK construction industry is in the process of trying to adopt a new culture based on the large-scale take up of innovative practices. Through the Demonstration Project process many organizations are implementing changed practices and learning from the experiences of others. This is probably the largest experiment in innovation in any industry in recent times. The long-term success will be measured by the effectiveness of embedding the new practices in the organization. As yet there is no recognized approach to measuring the receptivity of the organization to the innovation process as an indication of the likelihood of long-term development. The development of an appropriate approach is described here. Existing approaches to the measurement of the take up of innovation were reviewed and where appropriate used as the base for the development of a questionnaire. The questionnaire could be applicable to multi-organizational construction project situations such that the output could determine an individual organization's innovative practices via an innovation scorecard, a project team's approach or it could be used to survey a wide cross-section of the industry.

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Anticipating the future is increasingly being seen as a useful way to align, direct and improve current organizational strategy. Several such 'future studies' have been produced which envision various construction industry scenarios which result from technological and socio-economic trends and influences. Thirteen construction-related future studies are critically reviewed. Most studies fail to address the complexities and uncertainties of both the present and the future, and fail to explore the connections between global, local, construction-specific and more widespread factors. The methodological approaches used in these studies do not generate any significantly different advice or recommendations for the industry than those emerging from the much larger canon of non-future oriented construction research. As such, these reports are less about the future than the present. If future studies are to make a worthwhile contribution to construction, it is critical that they develop our appreciation of the practical ability of stakeholders to influence some aspects of the future and not others, and an awareness of the competing agendas and the relative benefits and disadvantages of specific futures within the construction sector. Only then can future studies provide insights and help in preparing for the opportunities and threats the future may bring.

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School absenteeism and particularly unauthorized absenteeism or truancy has been the focus of a number of, so far largely unsuccessful, recent policy initiatives. The paper draws upon two sources of data, the British Household Panel Survey and detailed interviews with a group of persistent truants, to consider the extent, consequences and explanations for truancy from secondary schools. Truancy increases steadily across the years of secondary school and, especially in the later years of compulsory schooling there is evidence that patterns of truancy established in one year carry on into the next. Truancy is strongly associated with negative outcomes in terms of not staying in education post-16, GCSE results and becoming unemployed. Coming from families of low socio-economic status, parents not monitoring homework, negative attitudes towards teachers and the value of education are all associated with higher levels of truancy. However, the majority of young people in these situations do not truant and there are many truants who do not have these characteristics. A major explanation given by young people themselves for their non-attendance is poor relationships with teachers, including teachers failing to match their expectations. Other factors mentioned by young people include bullying but also a more general dislike of the atmosphere of the school, sometimes associated with a change of school. There was little evidence of negative responses to the curriculum leading to truancy. It is suggested that we can distinguish between socio-economic and attitudinal factors which make young people vulnerable to truancy and precipitating events or processes which result in truanting behaviour.