The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to innumerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as studying monetary policy implications. On their turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test if no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross section (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on U.S. Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and Root Mean Square Errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.

A (semi-)parametric functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we propose a class of ACD-type models that accommodates overdispersion, intermittent dynamics, multiple regimes, and sign and size asymmetries in financial durations. In particular, our functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration (FC-ACD) model relies on a smooth-transition autoregressive specification. The motivation lies on the fact that the latter yields a universal approximation if one lets the number of regimes grows without bound. After establishing that the sufficient conditions for strict stationarity do not exclude explosive regimes, we address model identifiability as well as the existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for the FC-ACD model with a fixed number of regimes. In addition, we also discuss how to consistently estimate using a sieve approach a semiparametric variant of the FC-ACD model that takes the number of regimes to infinity. An empirical illustration indicates that our functional coefficient model is flexible enough to model IBM price durations.

Non- parametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the estimation and testing of conditional duration models by looking at the density and baseline hazard rate functions. More precisely, we foeus on the distance between the parametric density (or hazard rate) function implied by the duration process and its non-parametric estimate. Asymptotic justification is derived using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, whereas finite sample properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures by carrying out an empirical assessment of whether autoregressive conditional duration models are appropriate to oIs for modelling price durations of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange.

Regulation and wage adjustment patterns : non parametric evidence from longitudinal data

This paper gives a first step toward a methodology to quantify the influences of regulation on short-run earnings dynamics. It also provides evidence on the patterns of wage adjustment adopted during the recent high inflationary experience in Brazil.The large variety of official wage indexation rules adopted in Brazil during the recent years combined with the availability of monthly surveys on labor markets makes the Brazilian case a good laboratory to test how regulation affects earnings dynamics. In particular, the combination of large sample sizes with the possibility of following the same worker through short periods of time allows to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of longitudinal statistics based on observed earnings (e.g., monthly and annual rates of change).The empirical strategy adopted here is to compare the distributions of longitudinal statistics extracted from actual earnings data with simulations generated from minimum adjustment requirements imposed by the Brazilian Wage Law. The analysis provides statistics on how binding were wage regulation schemes. The visual analysis of the distribution of wage adjustments proves useful to highlight stylized facts that may guide future empirical work.

Improved combinations of parametric and nonparametric Regression estimators

This paper provides a systematic and unified treatment of the developments in the area of kernel estimation in econometrics and statistics. Both the estimation and hypothesis testing issues are discussed for the nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. A discussion on the choice of windowwidth is also presented.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parametric analyses of anxiety in zebrafish scototaxis

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Notes on vibration control of a micro/macromanipulator mounted on a flexible structure

The objective of this study is to describe the design and the implementation of an experimental set-up used to study the dynamics, the experimental identification, and the active vibration control of a flexible structure mounted manipulator system. The system consists of a three-degree-of-freedom cylindrical manipulator system with a flexible link on its tip. A two-degree-of-freedom polar rigid manipulator is mounted on the flexible macromanipulator. The dynamic modelling and experimental modal analysis identification in the frequency domain are being applied to design active digital control strategies for the micro-manipulator system to damp the mechanical vibrations of the flexible structure on the tip of the macro-manipulator system.

Damping behavior of continuous fiber/metal composite materials by the free vibration method

Fiber metal laminates (FML) offer significant improvements over current available materials for aircraft structures due to their excellent mechanical characteristics and relatively low density. Non-destructive testing techniques are being used in the characterization of composite materials. Among these, vibration testing is one of the most used tools because it allows the determination of the mechanical properties. In this work, the viscoelastic properties such as elastic (E') and viscous (E) responses were obtained for aluminum 2024 alloy; carbon fiber/epoxy; glass fiber/epoxy and their hybrids aluminum 2024 alloy/carbon fiber/epoxy and aluminum 2024 alloy/glass fiber/epoxy composites. The experimental results were compared to calculated E modulus values by using the composite micromechanics approach. For all specimens studied, the experimental values showed good agreement with the theoretical values. The damping behavior, i.e. The storage modulus and the loss factor, from the aluminum 2024 alloy and fiber epoxy composites can be used to estimate the viscoelastic response of the hybrid FML. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A New Approach for Real Time Fault Diagnosis in Induction Motors Based on Vibration Measurement

Condition monitoring is used to increase machinery availability and machinery performance, reducing consequential damage, increasing machine life, reducing spare parts inventories, and reducing breakdown maintenance. An efficient real time vibration measurement and analysis instruments is capable of providing warning and predicting faults at early stages. In this paper, a new methodology for the implementation of vibration measurement and analysis instruments in real time based on circuit architecture mapped from a MATLAB/Simulink model is presented. In this study, signal processing applications such as FIR filters and fast Fourier transform are treated as systems, which are implemented in hardware using a system generator toolbox, which translates a Simulink model in a hardware description language - HDL for FPGA implementations.

Optimal design of smart structures using bonded plezoelectrics for vibration control

Smart material technology has become an area of increasing interest for the development of lighter and stronger structures which are able to incorporate actuator and sensor capabilities for collocated control. In the design of actively controlled structures, the determination of the actuator locations and the controller gains, is a very important issue. For that purpose, smart material modelling, modal analysis methods, control and optimization techniques are the most important ingredients to be taken into account. The optimization problem to be solved in this context presents two interdependent aspects. The first one is related to the discrete optimal actuator location selection problem which is solved in this paper using genetic algorithms. The second is represented by a continuous variable optimization problem, through which the control gains are determined using classical techniques. A cantilever Euler-Bernoulli beam is used to illustrate the presented methodology.

Optimal placement of piezoelectric sensor/actuators for smart structures vibration control

Smart material technology has become an area of increasing interest for the development of lighter and stronger structures that are able to incorporate actuator and sensor capabilities for collocated control. In the design of actively controlled structures, the determination of the actuator locations and the controller gains is a very important issue. For that purpose, smart material modeling, modal analysis methods, and control and optimization techniques are the most important ingredients to be taken into account. The optimization problem to be solved in this context presents two interdependent aspects. The first is related to the discrete optimal actuator location selection problem, which is solved in this paper using genetic algorithms. The second is represented by a continuous variable optimization problem, through which the control gains are determined using classical techniques. A cantilever Euler-Bernoulli beam is used to illustrate the presented methodology.

System identification and active vibration control of a flexible structure

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Identification of lubricant contamination by biodiesel using vibration analysis and neural network

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide information on lubricant contamination by biodiesel using vibration and neural network.Design/methodology/approach - The possible contamination of lubricants is verified by analyzing the vibration and neural network of a bench test under determinated conditions.Findings - Results have shown that classical signal analysis methods could not reveal any correlation between the signal and the presence of contamination, or contamination grade. on other hand, the use of probabilistic neural network (PNN) was very successful in the identification and classification of contamination and its grade.Research limitations/implications - This study was done for some specific kinds of biodiesel. Other types of biodiesel could be analyzed.Practical implications Contamination information is presented in the vibration signal, even if it is not evident by classical vibration analysis. In addition, the use of PNN gives a relatively simple and easy-to-use detection tool with good confidence. The training process is fast, and allows implementation of an adaptive training algorithm.Originality/value - This research could be extended to an internal combustion engine in order to verify a possible contamination by biodiesel.

Identification of Mechanical Systems through Kautz Filter

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)