Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Distributed transpressive continental deformation: The Varto Fault Zone, eastern Turkey

The convergence between the Eurasian and Arabian plates has created a complicated structural setting in the Eastern Turkish high plateau (ETHP), particularly around the Karlıova Triple Junction (KTJ) where the Eurasian, Arabian, and Anatolian plates intersect. This region of interest includes the junction of the North Anatolian Shear Zone (NASZ) and the East Anatolian Shear Zone (EASZ), which forms the northern border of the westwardly extruding Anatolian Scholle and the western boundary of the ETHP, respectively. In this study, we focused on a poorly studied component of the KTJ, the Varto Fault Zone (VFZ), and the adjacent secondary structures, which have complex structural settings. Through integrated analyses of remote sensing and field observations, we identified a widely distributed transpressional zone where the Varto segment of the VFZ forms the most northern boundary. The other segments, namely, the Leylekdağ and Çayçatı segments, are oblique-reverse faults that are significantly defined by uplifted topography along their strikes. The measured 515 and 265 m of cumulative uplifts for Mt. Leylek and Mt. Dodan, respectively, yield a minimum uplift rate of 0.35 mm/a for the last 2.2 Ma. The multi-oriented secondary structures were mostly correlated with “the distributed strike-slip” and “the distributed transpressional” in analogue experiments. The misfits in strike of some of secondary faults between our observations and the experimental results were justified by about 20° to 25° clockwise restoration of all relevant structures that were palaeomagnetically measured to have happened since ~ 2.8 Ma ago. Our detected fault patterns and their true nature are well aligned as being part of a transpressional tectonic setting that supports previously suggested stationary triple junction models.

Contrasting PT paths within the Barchi-Kol UHP terrain (Kokchetav Complex): Implications for subduction and exhumation of continental crust

The Barchi-Kol terrain is a classic locality of ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphism within the Kokchetav metamorphic belt. We provide a detailed and systematic characterization of four metasedimentary samples using dominant mineral assemblages, mineral inclusions in zircon and monazite, garnet zonation with respect to major and trace elements, and Zr-in-rutile and Ti-in-zircon temperatures. A typical diamond-bearing gneiss records peak conditions of 49 ± 4 kbar and 950–1000 °C. Near isothermal decompression of this rock resulted in the breakdown of phengite associated with a pervasive recrystallization of the rock. The same terrain also contains mica schists that experienced peak conditions close to those of the diamond-bearing rocks, but they were exhumed along a cooler path where phengite remained stable. In these rocks, major and trace element zoning in garnet has been completely equilibrated. A layered gneiss was metamorphosed at UHP conditions in the coesite field, but did not reach diamond-facies conditions (peak conditions: 30 kbar and 800–900 °C). In this sample, garnet records retrograde zonation in major elements and also retains prograde zoning in trace elements. A garnet-kyanite-micaschist that reached significantly lower pressures (24 ± 2 kbar, 710 ± 20 °C) contains garnet with major and trace element zoning. The diverse garnet zoning in samples that experienced different metamorphic conditions allows to establish that diffusional equilibration of rare earth element in garnet likely occurs at ~900–950 °C. Different metamorphic conditions in the four investigated samples are also documented in zircon trace element zonation and mineral inclusions in zircon and monazite. U-Pb geochronology of metamorphic zircon and monazite domains demonstrates that prograde (528–521 Ma), peak (528–522 Ma), and peak to retrograde metamorphism (503–532 Ma) occurred over a relatively short time interval that is indistinguishable from metamorphism of other UHP rocks within the Kokchetav metamorphic belt. Therefore, the assembly of rocks with contrasting P-T trajectories must have occurred in a single subduction-exhumation cycle, providing a snapshot of the thermal structure of a subducted continental margin prior to collision. The rocks were initially buried along a low geothermal gradient. At 20–25 kbar they underwent near isobaric heating of 200 °C, which was followed by continued burial along a low geothermal gradient. Such a step-wise geotherm is in good agreement with predictions from subduction zone thermal models.

Constraints on the thermal evolution of the Adriatic margin during Jurassic continental break-up: U–Pb dating of rutile from the Ivrea–Verbano Zone, Italy

The Ivrea–Verbano Zone (IVZ), northern Italy, exposes an attenuated section through the Permian lower crust that records high-temperature metamorphism under lower crustal conditions and a protracted history of extension and exhumation associated partly with the Jurassic opening of the Alpine Tethys ocean. This study presents SHRIMP U–Pb geochronology of rutile from seven granulite facies metapelites from the base of the IVZ, collected from locations spanning ~35 km along the strike of Paleozoic fabrics. Rutile crystallised during Permian high-temperature metamorphism and anatexis, yet all samples give Jurassic rutile U–Pb ages that record cooling through 650–550 °C. Rutile age distributions are dominated by a peak at ~160 Ma, with a subordinate peak at ~175 Ma. Both ~160 and ~175 Ma age populations show excellent agreement between samples, indicating that the two distinctive cooling stages they record were synchronous on a regional scale. The ~175 Ma population is interpreted to record cooling in the footwall of rift-related faults and shear zones, for which widespread activity in the Lower Jurassic has been documented along the western margin of the Adriatic plate. The ~160 Ma age population postdates the activity of all known rift-related structures within the Adriatic margin, but coincides with extensive gabbroic magmatism and exhumation of sub-continental mantle to the floor of the Alpine Tethys, west of the Ivrea Zone. We propose that this ~160 Ma early post-rift age population records regional cooling following episodic heating of the distal Adriatic margin, likely related to extreme lithospheric thinning and associated advection of the asthenosphere to shallow levels. The partial preservation of the ~175 Ma age cluster suggests that the post-rift (~160 Ma) heating pulse was of short duration. The regional consistency of the data presented here, which is in contrast to many other thermochronometers in the IVZ, demonstrates the value of the rutile U–Pb technique for probing the thermal evolution of high-grade metamorphic terrains. In the IVZ, a significant decoupling between Zr-in-rutile temperatures and U–Pb ages of rutile is observed, with the two systems recording events ~120 Ma apart.

Breaking Points: Mutiny in the Continental Army

The mutinies of the Continental Army during the American Revolution threatened both the integrity of the army and the viability of the Revolution itself. They were complex phenomena, stemming from numerous underlying physical and psychological causes. Having slowly developed over the course of the war, the problems confronting the Continental Army eventually brought it to the breaking point. No less than four major mutinies, involving soldiers or officers, occurred between 1780-1783. This essay focuses on the reasons for the mutinies and how the participants justified their actions. It also examines responses from General Washington and other senior officers, and what effects these actions had on the army. Finally, this essay addresses the question of why so few major mutinies occurred given the miserable state of the Continental Army.

{[N.N.], Szenenfoto, Gruppenbildnis, in: Igor Stravinsky: The Flood, Hamburg: Staatsoper, 1963, Inszenierung: Günther Rennert

Signatur des Originals: S 36/F11346

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Dengue transmission risk maps of the continental United States

Dengue fever is a strictly human and non-human primate disease characterized by a high fever, thrombocytopenia, retro-orbital pain, and severe joint and muscle pain. Over 40% of the world population is at risk. Recent re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Texas and Florida following the re-introduction of competent Aedes mosquito vectors in the United States have raised growing concerns about the potential for increased occurrences of dengue fever outbreaks throughout the southern United States. Current deficiencies in vector control, active surveillance and awareness among medical practitioners may contribute to a delay in recognizing and controlling a dengue virus outbreak. Previous studies have shown links between low-income census tracts, high population density, and dengue fever within the United States. Areas of low-income and high population density that correlate with the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes result in higher potential for outbreaks. In this retrospective ecologic study, nine maps were generated to model U.S. census tracts’ potential to sustain dengue virus transmission if the virus was introduced into the area. Variables in the model included presence of a competent vector in the county and census tract percent poverty and population density. Thirty states, 1,188 counties, and 34,705 census tracts were included in the analysis. Among counties with Aedes mosquito infestation, the census tracts were ranked high, medium, and low risk potential for sustained transmission of the virus. High risk census tracts were identified as areas having the vector, ≥20% poverty, and ≥500 persons per square mile. Census tracts with either ≥20% poverty or ≥500 persons per square mile and have the vector present are considered moderate risk. Census tracts that have the vector present but have <20% poverty and <500 persons per square mile are considered low risk. Furthermore, counties were characterized as moderate risk if 50% or more of the census tracts in that county were rated high or moderate risk, and high risk if 25% or greater were rated high risk. Extreme risk counties, which were primarily concentrated in Texas and Mississippi, were considered having 50% or greater of the census tracts ranked as high risk. Mapping of geographic areas with potential to sustain dengue virus transmission will support surveillance efforts and assist medical personnel in recognizing potential cases. ^

87Sr/86Sr ratios, Sr and Rb concentrations and stable oxygen isotope values for some basalts from ODP Hole 504B (Table 1)

Seventeen whole-rock samples, generally taken at 25-50 m intervals from 5 to 560 m sub-basement in Hole 504B, drilled in 6.2 m.y. old crust, were analysed for 87Sr/86Sr ratios, Sr and Rb concentrations, and 18O/16O ratios. Sr isotope ratios for 8 samples from the upper 260 m of the hole range from 0.70287 to 0.70377, with a mean of 0.70320. In the 330-560 m interval, 5 samples have a restricted range of 0.70255-0.70279, with a mean of 0.70266, the average value for fresh mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB). In the 260-330 m interval, approximately intermediate Sr isotopic ratios are found. Delta18O values (?) range from 6.4 to 7.8 in the upper 260 m, 6.2-6.4 in the 270-320 m interval, and 5.8-6.2 in the 320-560 m interval. The values in the upper 260 m are typical for basalts which have undergone low-temperature seawater alteration, whereas the values for the 320-560 m interval correspond to MORB which have experienced essentially no oxygen isotopic alteration. The higher 87Sr/86Sr and 18O/16O ratios in the upper part of the hole can be interpreted as the result of a greater overall water/rock ratio in the upper part of the Hole 504B crust than in the lower part. Interaction of basalt with seawater (87Sr/86Sr = 0.7091) increased basalt 87Sr/86Sr ratios and produced smectitic alteration products which raised whole-rock delta18O values. Seawater circulation in the lower basalts may have been partly restricted by the greater number of relatively impermeable massive lava flows below about 230 m sub-basement. These flows may have helped to seal off lower basalts from through-flowing seawater.