Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.

Exercise and nonspecific low back pain: a literature review.

We reviewed the literature to clarify the effects of exercise in preventing and treating nonspecific low back pain. We evaluated several characteristics of exercise programs including specificity, individual tailoring, supervision, motivation enhancement, volume, and intensity. The results show that exercise is effective in the primary and secondary prevention of low back pain. When used for curative treatment, exercise diminishes disability and pain severity while improving fitness and occupational status in patients who have subacute, recurrent, or chronic low back pain. Patients with acute low back pain are usually advised to continue their everyday activities to the greatest extent possible rather than to start an exercise program. Supervision is crucial to the efficacy of exercise programs. Whether general or specific exercises are preferable is unclear, and neither is there clear evidence that one-on-one sessions are superior to group sessions. Further studies are needed to determine which patient subsets respond to specific characteristics of exercise programs and which exercise volumes and intensities are optimal.

LIF and sIL-2R plasma concentrations in IVF patients on the day of embryo transfer: predictive markers of IVF outcome.

Successful implantation is still the limiting step in IVF. We hypothesized that maternal plasma concentrations of certain cytokines at the time of embryo transfer could predict the likelihood of successful implantation and pregnancy. sIL-2R, IL-6, LIF, and MMP2 concentrations were measured in plasma from 160 IVF patients (natural and stimulated IVF cycles) on the morning of the embryo transfer (ET0) and 14days later (ET+14). Patients were ultimately subdivided into four groups depending on the IVF treatment outcome (pregnancy failure, biochemical pregnancy, first-trimester miscarriage and normal term delivery). In natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, sIL-2R concentrations were threefold higher in biochemical pregnancies than in pregnancy failures (P=0.020), and in natural cycles only, 2.5-fold higher in normal term deliveries than in pregnancy failures (P=0.023). Conversely, in natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, LIF concentrations were one third lower in biochemical pregnancies/first-trimester miscarriages compared with pregnancy failures (P=0.042). We suggest that high sIL-2R and low LIF concentrations in maternal plasma on the morning of the embryo transfer might be associated with increased risks of early pregnancy loss, while a basal level of sIL-2R is necessary for normal term delivery outcome. Both cytokine measurements might therefore be useful in the management of IVF patients, and modulation of their concentrations could be investigated as a therapeutic alternative for women with abnormal concentrations at the time of embryo transfer.

The Effect of Teacher Expectations on Student Achievement: Does The Pygmalion Effect Hold True for Cape Verde?

The present study is about the relationship between teacher expectations and student achievement. Do teachers have the power to influence student achievement? This is the question at hand. Are students under the influence of their teachers in regards to how they perceive themselves as achievers and ultimately how well they perform? What are the other factors that come into play when assessing student’s academic achievement? In light of the literature written on this topic, the two most prevalent theories are (1) Pygmalion in the Class and (2) The Sustaining Effect. These theories show a direct and determinant relationship between teacher expectations and student achievement. The main objective of this study was to investigate if in Cape Verde, teachers follow the same trend. Responses to teacher and student surveys carried out at Domingos Ramos High School gave revealing insights into how Capeverdean teachers view their students and the role the teachers themselves play in supporting the studen’s academic performance. Is the teacher’s expectation of their students the last word? In general, teachers do have a powerful influence on their students for good or for bad, but the key questions are: (1) are they aware of this power and (2) how well do they manage it? This paper includes an in-depth discussion on the different factors that influence student achievement and research carried out at an urban secondary school which characterizes how teachers and students view their roles in the student’s academic success. Recommendations are also provided to assist teachers in managing their expectations to maximize their role as a positive contributor to the success of their students.

Influence of the timing of cardiac surgery on the outcome of patients with infective endocarditis and stroke.

BACKGROUND: The timing of cardiac surgery after stroke in infective endocarditis (IE) remains controversial. We examined the relationship between the timing of surgery after stroke and the incidence of in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. METHODS: Data were obtained from the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study of 4794 patients with definite IE who were admitted to 64 centers from June 2000 through December 2006. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate the impact of early surgery on hospital and 1-year mortality after adjustments for other significant covariates. RESULTS: Of the 857 patients with IE complicated by ischemic stroke syndromes, 198 who underwent valve replacement surgery poststroke were available for analysis. Overall, 58 (29.3%) patients underwent early surgical treatment vs 140 (70.7%) patients who underwent late surgical treatment. After adjustment for other risk factors, early surgery was not significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality rates (odds ratio, 2.308; 95% confidence interval [CI], .942-5.652). Overall, probability of death after 1-year follow-up did not differ between 2 treatment groups (27.1% in early surgery and 19.2% in late surgery group, P = .328; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.138; 95% CI, .802-1.650). CONCLUSIONS: There is no apparent survival benefit in delaying surgery when indicated in IE patients after ischemic stroke. Further observational analyses that include detailed pre- and postoperative clinical neurologic findings and advanced imaging data (eg, ischemic stroke size), may allow for more refined recommendations on the optimal timing of valvular surgery in patients with IE and recent stroke syndromes.

Voting after the bombing: Can terrorist attacks change the outcome of democratic elections?

Economists have recently turned their attention to the effects of terrorism. One much debated effect of terrorist attacks is its impact on the results of democratic elections. We use the electoral consequences of the terrorist attacks of the 11-M in Madrid to analyze this issue. We consider this particular experiment since the attack took place only three days before the 2004 Congressional Election, which allows the use of credible identification criteria. In particular, we use the advance voting by Spanish residents abroad, who cast their vote before the terrorist attack, to identify the effect of the bombing. We exploit this macabre natural experiment to run a difference-in-differences estimation using data on three consecutive Congressional elections. Our empirical results indicate that a terrorist attack can have a large impact on the outcome of democratic elections.

Stroke initial severity and outcome relative to insurance status in a universal health care system in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND:  Socioeconomic status is thought to have a significant influence on stroke incidence, risk factors and outcome. Its influence on acute stroke severity, stroke mechanisms, and acute recanalisation treatment is less known. METHODS:  Over a 4-year period, all ischaemic stroke patients admitted within 24 h were entered prospectively in a stroke registry. Data included insurance status, demographics, risk factors, time to hospital arrival, initial stroke severity (NIHSS), etiology, use of acute treatments, short-term outcome (modified Rankin Scale, mRS). Private insured patients (PI) were compared with basic insured patients (BI). RESULTS:  Of 1062 consecutive acute ischaemic stroke patients, 203 had PI and 859 had BI. They were 585 men and 477 women. Both populations were similar in age, cardiovascular risk factors and preventive medications. The onset to admission time, thrombolysis rate, and stroke etiology according to TOAST classification were not different between PI and BI. Mean NIHSS at admission was significantly higher for BI. Good outcome (mRS ≤ 2) at 7 days and 3 months was more frequent in PI than in BI. CONCLUSION:  We found better outcome and lesser stroke severity on admission in patients with higher socioeconomic status in an acute stroke population. The reason for milder strokes in patients with better socioeconomic status in a universal health care system needs to be explained.

Severe stroke: patient profile and predictors of favorable outcome.

Summary.  Background:  Severe stroke carries high rates of mortality and morbidity. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics of patients who initially presented with severe ischemic stroke, and to identify acute and subacute predictors of favorable clinical outcome in these patients. Methods:  An observational cohort study, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), was analyzed, and all patients presenting with severe stroke - defined as a National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥ 20 on admission - were compared with all other patients. In a multivariate analysis, associations with demographic, clinical, pathophysiologic, metabolic and neuroimaging factors were determined. Furthermore, we analyzed predictors of favorable outcome (modified Rankin scale score of ≤ 3 at 3 months) in the subgroup of severe stroke patients. Results:  Of 1915 consecutive patients, 243 (12.7%) presented with severe stroke. This was significantly associated with cardio-embolic stroke mechanism (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.54), unknown stroke onset (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.14-4.83), more neuroimaging signs of early ischemia (mostly computed tomography; OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.79-3.92), arterial occlusions on acute imaging (OR 27.01, 95% CI 11.5-62.9), fewer chronic radiologic infarcts (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.26-0.72), lower hemoglobin concentration (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99), and higher white cell count (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11). In the 68 (28%) patients with favorable outcomes despite presenting with severe stroke, this was predicted by lower age (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.97), preceding cerebrovascular events (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.01-8.97), hypolipemic pretreatment (OR 3.82, 95% CI 1.34-10.90), lower acute temperature (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.78), lower subacute glucose concentration (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.97), and spontaneous or treatment-induced recanalization (OR 4.51, 95% CI 1.96-10.41). Conclusions:  Severe stroke presentation is predicted by multiple clinical, radiologic and metabolic variables, several of which are modifiable. Predictors in the 28% of patients with favorable outcome despite presenting with severe stroke include hypolipemic pretreatment, lower acute temperature, lower glucose levels at 24 h, and arterial recanalization.

Long-term swimming exercise does not modulate the Akt-dependent endothelial nitric oxide synthase phosphorylation in healthy mice.

Molecular mechanisms by which exercise exerts cardiovascular benefits are poorly understood. Exercise-induced increase of endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) phosphorylation through the protein kinase Akt has been shown to be a key mechanism underlying the beneficial effect of exercise in coronary artery disease patients. We examined whether this protective pathway might also be activated in long-term-exercised healthy mice. C57BL/6 wild-type mice swam for 24 weeks. A group of sedentary animals were used as controls. Aortic levels of total protein kinase Akt (protein kinase B), phosphorylated Akt at ser473 (p-Akt), total eNOS, phosphorylated eNOS at Ser1177 (p-eNOS), and PECAM-1 (platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1) were assessed by Western blotting. Protein expressions of Akt, p-Akt, eNOS, p-eNOS, and PECAM-1 were not modulated by 24 weeks of exercise. The Akt-dependent eNOS phosphorylation did not seem to be a primary molecular adaptation in response to long-term exercise in healthy mice.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of isolated extracerebral relapses of primary central nervous system lymphoma: a case series.

There is very limited data on isolated systemic relapses of primary central nervous system lymphomas (PCNSL). We retrospectively reviewed the clinical characteristics and outcome of 10 patients with isolated systemic disease among 209 patients with PCNSL mainly treated with methotrexate-based chemotherapy (CT) with or without radiation therapy (RT). Isolated systemic relapse remained rare (4.8%, 10/209 patients). Median time from initial diagnosis to relapse was 33 months (range, 3-94). Sites of relapse were mostly extranodal. Three patients presented with early extra-cerebral (EC) relapse 3, 5 and 8 months from the beginning of initial treatment, respectively, and 7 patients had later relapses (range, 17-94 months). Treatment at relapse included surgery alone, RT alone, CT with or without radiotherapy, or CT with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). Median overall survival (OS) after relapse was 15.5 months (range, 5.8-24.5) compared to 4.6 months (range, 3.6-6.5) for patients with central nervous system (CNS) relapse (p = 0.35). In conclusion, isolated systemic relapses exist but are infrequent. Early EC relapse suggests the presence of systemic disease undetectable by conventional evaluation at initial diagnosis. Patient follow-up must be prolonged because systemic relapse can occur as late as 10 years after initial diagnosis. Whether EC relapses of PCNSL have a better prognosis than CNS relapses needs to be assessed in a larger cohort. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

MGMT promoter methylation is prognostic but not predictive for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy in anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors: a report from EORTC Brain Tumor Group Study 26951.

PURPOSE: O6-methylguanine-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation has been shown to predict survival of patients with glioblastomas if temozolomide is added to radiotherapy (RT). It is unknown if MGMT promoter methylation is also predictive to outcome to RT followed by adjuvant procarbazine, lomustine, and vincristine (PCV) chemotherapy in patients with anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors (AOT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer study 26951, 368 patients with AOT were randomly assigned to either RT alone or to RT followed by adjuvant PCV. From 165 patients of this study, formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue was available for MGMT promoter methylation analysis. This was investigated with methylation specific multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. RESULTS: In 152 cases, an MGMT result was obtained, in 121 (80%) cases MGMT promoter methylation was observed. Methylation strongly correlated with combined loss of chromosome 1p and 19q loss (P = .00043). In multivariate analysis, MGMT promoter methylation, 1p/19q codeletion, tumor necrosis, and extent of resection were independent prognostic factors. The prognostic significance of MGMT promoter methylation was equally strong in the RT arm and the RT/PCV arm for both progression-free survival and overall survival. In tumors diagnosed at central pathology review as glioblastoma, no prognostic effect of MGMT promoter methylation was observed. CONCLUSION: In this study, on patients with AOT MGMT promoter methylation was of prognostic significance and did not have predictive significance for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy. The biologic effect of MGMT promoter methylation or pathogenetic features associated with MGMT promoter methylation may be different for AOT compared with glioblastoma.

Pregnancy outcome following maternal exposure to statins: a multicentre prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: This contribution addresses the risk associated with exposure to statins during pregnancy. DESIGN: Multicentre observational prospective controlled study. SETTING: European Network of Teratology Information Services. POPULATION: Pregnant women who contacted one of 11 participating centres, seeking advice about exposure to statins during pregnancy, or to agents known to be nonteratogenic. METHODS: Pregnancies exposed during first trimester to statins were followed up prospectively, and their outcomes were compared with a matched control group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of major birth defects, live births, miscarriages, elective terminations, preterm deliveries and gestational age and birthweight at delivery. RESULTS: We collected observations from 249 exposed pregnancies and 249 controls. The difference in the rate of major birth defects between the statin-exposed and the control groups was small and statistically nonsignificant (4.1% versus 2.7% odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.5-4.5, P = 0.43). In an adjusted Cox model, the difference between miscarriage rates was also small and not significant (hazard ratio 1.36, 95% CI 0.63-2.93, P = 0.43). Premature birth was more frequent in exposed pregnancies (16.1% versus 8.5%; OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-3.8, P = 0.019). Nonetheless, median gestational age at birth (39 weeks, interquartile range [IQR] 37-40 versus 39 weeks, IQR 38-40, P = 0.27) and birth weight (3280 g, IQR 2835-3590 versus 3250 g, IQR 2880-3630, P = 0.95) did not differ between exposed and non-exposed pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not detect a teratogenic effect of statins. Its statistical power remains insufficient to challenge current recommendations of treatment discontinuation during pregnancy.