Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Nino Southern Oscillation case study

The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997–1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.

A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

Field trials to assess the uptake of arsenic by vegetables from contaminated soils and soil remediation with iron oxides

The uptake of arsenic (As) by plants from contaminated soils presents a health hazard that may affect the use of agricultural and former industrial land. Methods for limiting the hazard are desirable. A proposed remediation treatment comprises the precipitation of iron (Fe) oxides in the contaminated soil by adding ferrous sulfate and lime. The effects on As bioavailability were assessed using a range of vegetable crops grown in the field. Four UK locations were used, where soil was contaminated by As from different sources. At the most contaminated site, a clay loam containing a mean of 748 mg As kg(-1) soil, beetroot, calabrese, cauliflower, lettuce, potato, radish and spinach were grown. For all crops except spinach, ferrous sulfate treatment caused a significant reduction in the bioavailability of As in some part of the crop. Application of ferrous sulfate in solution, providing 0.2% Fe oxides in the soil (0-10 cm), reduced As uptake by a mean of 22%. Solid ferrous sulfate was applied to give concentrations of 0.5% and 1% Fe oxides: the 0.5% concentration reduced As uptake by a mean of 32% and the 1% concentration gave no significant additional benefit. On a sandy loam containing 65 mg As kg(-1) soil, there was tentative evidence that ferrous sulfate treatment up to 2% Fe oxides caused a significant reduction in lettuce As, but calabrese did not respond. At the other two sites, the effects of ferrous sulfate treatment were not significant, but the uptake of soil As was low in treated and untreated soils. Differences between sites in the bioavailable fraction of soil As may be related to the soil texture or the source of As. The highest bioavailability was found on the soil which had been contaminated by aerial deposition and had a high sand content. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geochemical changes to dredged canal sediments following land spreading: a review.

This paper brings together some of the recent research on trace metals in dredged sediments, and in particular freshwater canal sediments. Following a description of the general UK background, geochemical processes that affect metal release and retention in dredged canal sediments are considered, particularly the role of redox and sulphur on metal associations, and the use of sequential extraction for the derivation of metal associations in sediments. The review outlines the importance of oxidation on metal-mobility and shows that many studies have illustrated the increase in metal-leachability from sediments during oxidation. Suggestions are given for sediment-testing requirements which should include an examination of both anoxic and oxidised sediment as well as ecotoxicology in order to account for changes to metal-speciation after disposal to land.

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool: a simple model of diffuse P loss from agricultural land to water

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool provides a catchment-scale estimation of diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface waters using the most appropriate indicators of P loss. The Tool provides a framework that may be applied across the UK to estimate P loss, which is sensitive not only to land use and management but also to environmental factors such as climate, soil type and topography. The model complexity incorporated in the P Indicators Tool has been adapted to the level of detail in the available data and the need to reflect the impact of changes in agriculture. Currently, the Tool runs on an annual timestep and at a 1 km(2) grid scale. We demonstrate that the P Indicators Tool works in principle and that its modular structure provides a means of accounting for P loss from one layer to the next, and ultimately to receiving waters. Trial runs of the Tool suggest that modelled P delivery to water approximates measured water quality records. The transparency of the structure of the P Indicators Tool means that identification of poorly performing coefficients is possible, and further refinements of the Tool can be made to ensure it is better calibrated and subsequently validated against empirical data, as it becomes available.

Managing land-use conflict around urban centres: Australian poultry farmer attitudes towards relocation

In analysing the release of agricultural land to urban development, the urban fringe literature has not focused on whether farmers are able to relocate from the urban fringe to remoter rural areas. Through interviews with representatives from the poultry industry in two Australian states, this paper identifies that poultry farm relocation strategies are constrained by off-farm economic relations, the land-use planning system and financial considerations. Closely aligned to these constraints on relocation is the on-going process of poultry farm intensification, which is seen as presenting rising problems for land-use management around expanding metropolitan centres in Australia. Of particular concern is the potential for amenity complaints and associated land-use conflicts, which have not been comprehensively investigated. Recognising that existing environmental and land-use planning controls are ineffective in producing amicable solutions when conflict involving poultry farming is at its most intense, the paper calls for improvements to the regulatory system, including greater consideration for how the process of relocation can be encouraged. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of calcite and gypsum in the leaching of potassium in a sandy soil

Pulses of potassium (K+) applied to columns of repacked calcium (Ca2+) saturated soil were leached with distilled water or calcium chloride (CaCl2) solutions of various concentrations at a rate of 12 mm h(-1). With increased Ca2+ concentration, the rate of movement of K+ increased, as did the concentration of K+ in the displaced pulse, which was less dispersed. The movement of K+ in calcite-amended soil leached with water was at a similar rate to that of the untreated soil leached with 1 mM CaCl2, and in soil containing gypsum, movement was similar to that leached with 15 mM CaCl2. The Ca2+ concentrations in the leachates were about 0.4 and 15 mM respectively the expected values for the dissolution of the two amendments. Soil containing native K+ was leached with distilled water or CaCl2 solutions. The amount of K+ leached increased as Ca2+ concentration increased, with up to 34% of the exchangeable K+ being removed in five pore volumes of 15 mM CaCl2. Soil amended with calcite and leached with water lost K+ at a rate between that for leaching the unamended soil with 1 mM CaCl2 and that with water. Soil containing gypsum and leached with water lost K+ at a similar rate to unamended soil leached with 15 mM CaCl2. The presence of Ca2+ in irrigation water and of soil minerals able to release Ca2+ are of importance in determining the amounts of K+ leached from soils. The LEACHM model predicted approximately the displacement of K+, and was more accurate with higher concentrations of displacing solution. The shortcomings of this model are its inability to account for rate-controlled processes and the assumption that K+:Ca2+ exchange during leaching can be described using a constant adsorption coefficient. As a result, the pulse is predicted to appear a little earlier and the following edge has less of a tail than chat measured. In practical agriculture, the model will be more useful in soils containing gypsum or leached with saline water than in either calcareous or non-calcareous soils leached with rainwater.

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Kenya between 1990 and 2030

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Non-Annex 1 countries such as Kenya are obliged to report green house gas (GHG) emissions from all sources where possible, including those from soils as a result of changes in land use or land management. At present, the convention encourages countries to estimate emissions using the most advanced methods possible, given the country circumstances and resources. Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes were made for Kenya using the Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. The tool conducts analysis using three methods: (1) the Century general ecosystem model; (2) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (3) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. The required datasets included: land use history, monthly mean precipitation, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures for all the agro-climatic zones of Kenya and historical vegetation cover. Soil C stocks of 1.4-2.0 Pg (0-20 cm), compared well with a Soil and Terrain (SOTER) based approach that estimated similar to .8-2.0 Pg (0-30 cm). In 1990 48% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 20% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1), whereas in 2000 56% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 31% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1). Conversion of natural vegetation to annual crops led to the greatest soil C losses. Simulations suggest that soil C losses remain substantial throughout the modelling period of 1990-2030. All three methods involved in the GEFSOC System estimated that there would be a net loss of soil C between 2000 and 2030 in Kenya. The decline was more marked with RothC than with Century or the IPCC method. In non-hydric soils the SOC change rates were more pronounced in high sandy soils compared to high clay soils in most land use systems. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.