Generalised Riccati solution and pinning control of complex stochastic networks

This paper considers the global synchronisation of a stochastic version of coupled map lattices networks through an innovative stochastic adaptive linear quadratic pinning control methodology. In a stochastic network, each state receives only noisy measurement of its neighbours' states. For such networks we derive a generalised Riccati solution that quantifies and incorporates uncertainty of the forward dynamics and inverse controller in the derivation of the stochastic optimal control law. The generalised Riccati solution is derived using the Lyapunov approach. A probabilistic approximation type algorithm is employed to estimate the conditional distributions of the state and inverse controller from historical data and quantifying model uncertainties. The theoretical derivation is complemented by its validation on a set of representative examples.

Optimization Problem in a Class of Linear System. Application to Multiple Drug Administration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H15, 62P10.

A Stochastic Control Approach to a Parabolic Equation, Reciprocal Processes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: 49L60, 60J60, 93E20.

A production/recycling model with quality consideration

An integrated production–recycling system is investigated. A constant demand can be satisfied by production and recycling. The used items might be bought back and then recycled. The not recycled products are disposed off. Two types of models are analyzed. The first model examines and minimizes the EOQ related cost. The second model generalizes the first one by introducing additionally linear waste disposal, recycling, production and buyback costs. This basic model was examined by the authors in a previous paper. The main results are that a pure strategy (either production or recycling) is optimal. This paper extends the model for the case of quality consideration: it is asked for the quality of the bought back products. In the former model we have assumed that all returned items are serviceable. One can put the following question: Who should control the quality of the returned items? If the suppliers examine the quality of the reusable products, then the buyback rate is strongly smaller than one, α<1. If the user does it, then not all returned items are recyclable, i.e. the use rate is smaller than one, δ<1. Which one of the control systems are more cost advantageous in this case?

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal control with transit signal priority at isolated intersections using parallel genetic algorithms

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal timing is one of the most complex problems in traffic control systems. This dissertation presents a new method that applies the parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) to optimize adaptive traffic signal control in the presence of transit signal priority (TSP). The method can optimize the phase plan, cycle length, and green splits at isolated intersections with consideration for the performance of both the transit and the general vehicles. Unlike the simple genetic algorithm (GA), PGA can provide better and faster solutions needed for real-time optimization of adaptive traffic signal control. ^ An important component in the proposed method involves the development of a microscopic delay estimation model that was designed specifically to optimize adaptive traffic signal with TSP. Macroscopic delay models such as the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model are unable to accurately consider the effect of phase combination and phase sequence in delay calculations. In addition, because the number of phases and the phase sequence of adaptive traffic signal may vary from cycle to cycle, the phase splits cannot be optimized when the phase sequence is also a decision variable. A "flex-phase" concept was introduced in the proposed microscopic delay estimation model to overcome these limitations. ^ The performance of PGA was first evaluated against the simple GA. The results show that PGA achieved both faster convergence and lower delay for both under- or over-saturated traffic conditions. A VISSIM simulation testbed was then developed to evaluate the performance of the proposed PGA-based adaptive traffic signal control with TSP. The simulation results show that the PGA-based optimizer for adaptive TSP outperformed the fully actuated NEMA control in all test cases. The results also show that the PGA-based optimizer was able to produce TSP timing plans that benefit the transit vehicles while minimizing the impact of TSP on the general vehicles. The VISSIM testbed developed in this research provides a powerful tool to design and evaluate different TSP strategies under both actuated and adaptive signal control. ^

Essays in dynamic optimal taxation: working experience, unemployment scarring and poverty

This thesis investigates the design of optimal tax systems in dynamic environments. The first essay characterizes the optimal tax system where wages depend on stochastic shocks and work experience. In addition to redistributive and efficiency motives, the taxation of inexperienced workers depends on a second-best requirement that encourages work experience, a social insurance motive and incentive effects. Calibrations using U.S. data yield higher expected optimal marginal income tax rates for experienced workers for most of the inexperienced workers. They confirm that the average marginal income tax rate increases (decreases) with age when shocks and work experience are substitutes (complements). Finally, more variability in experienced workers' earnings prospects leads to increasing tax rates since income taxation acts as a social insurance mechanism. In the second essay, the properties of an optimal tax system are investigated in a dynamic private information economy where labor market frictions create unemployment that destroys workers' human capital. A two-skill type model is considered where wages and employment are endogenous. I find that the optimal tax system distorts the first-period wages of all workers below their efficient levels which leads to more employment. The standard no-distortion-at-the-top result no longer holds due to the combination of private information and the destruction of human capital. I show this result analytically under the Maximin social welfare function and confirm it numerically for a general social welfare function. I also investigate the use of a training program and job creation subsidies. The final essay analyzes the optimal linear tax system when there is a population of individuals whose perceptions of savings are linked to their disposable income and their family background through family cultural transmission. Aside from the standard equity/efficiency trade-off, taxes account for the endogeneity of perceptions through two channels. First, taxing labor decreases income, which decreases the perception of savings through time. Second, taxation on savings corrects for the misperceptions of workers and thus savings and labor decisions. Numerical simulations confirm that behavioral issues push labor income taxes upward to finance saving subsidies. Government transfers to individuals are also decreased to finance those same subsidies.

Welke 'acteur' neemt de controllerrol als extraverte business partner?

Which 'actor' takes the management accountant role as an extravert business partner? Does a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling a management accountant role as a business partner exist? Open Universiteit Nederland End thesis MSc Management, Accounting & Finance Support 1: Prof. dr. A.C.N. van de Ven RA Support 2: dr. P.C.M. Claes Examinator: dr. P. Kamminga Date of approval: September 3, 2014 student: P.R. van der Wal (studentnumber 839104017 email petervanderwal2003@yahoo.com The main question of this research is: Does a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling a management accountant role as a business partner exist? This research is based on the dataset obtained by the controller survey 2013, executed in commission of the 'Open Universiteit' (Bork & van der Wal, 2014). From the literature review it is clear: among other management accountant roles we need business partners. And there is a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling the role as business partner. At the same time a lack of necessary personal traits for this role has been noticed, among which is Extraversion. The factor- and cluster analyses reported by Bork & van der Wal (2014) resulted in the identification of two types of management accountant roles. In this extended research TYPE II is identified as a business partner because (s)he practices activity-combinations which are related to strategy, analyzing, supporting management in decision making, advisory, change-agency and representing the organization. 36% of the population of Dutch management accountants with a master degree (or similar) meet with the role of the business partner. Although the fulfillment of the role (TYPE II) is not purely business partnering. E.g. reporting and scorekeeping are still activities executed by TYPE II and it is not clear to what extent. Apart from that, role TYPE I executes change management and risk-management activities, which are (according to the definition) activities that belong to the business partner. The role as business partner is practiced but not that optimal as defined in theory. The logistic regression analyses on the survey-data show that Extraversion among three other triggers is significant for the prediction of the fulfillment of the management accountant role (Bork & van der Wal, 2014). A more extravert personal trait predicts a preference for TYPE II, which relates to the business partner. This 'in depth research' concentrated on the relation between the Big Five personal traits and the six activity-combinations (factors) instead of on the two clusters (I and II). The statistic analyses confirm the predicting influence of Extraversion on the business partner role. Although, except for one factor, no extra significance has been found in this additional research. The essential question can be confirmed positively: the management accountant role business partner exists in practice, some management accountants are more extravert then others, and there is a positive relation between extraversion and fulfilling the business partner role. Some formulated research limitations are related to the statistical weakness of some prediction outcomes and to interpretation differences that might occur. Further research can e.g. concentrate on the other personal traits and the significance for role-differentiation in education programs. The management accountant survey 2013 Management accountant roles in 2013 in the Netherlands Open Universiteit Nederland End thesis MSc Management, Accounting & Finance Support 1: Prof. dr. A.C.N. van de Ven RA Support 2: dr. P.C.M. Claes Examinator: dr. P. Kamminga Date of approval: September 3, 2014 student: P.R. van der Wal and H.J. Bork studentnumber: 839104017 and 838532340) email: petervanderwal2003@yahoo.com and hjbork@hotmail.com This paper describes the conceptual model and results of the 'management accountants survey 2013'. The survey is part of a longitudinal survey, earlier executed in 2004, 2007 and 2010 under responsibility of the 'Open Universiteit Nederland'. Secondly the dataset of this survey will be used by us to do our own analyses on the predicting value of the triggers 'personality factor: extraversion' and 'lever of control: interactive controls' on the management accounting role that comes close to a role defined as 'Business Partner'. Scientific research shows that there are different management accounting roles, and that these roles change and that preferences exist for certain roles (Verstegen B. , Loo, Mol, Slagter, & Geerkens, 2007). The main question that will be answered in this paper is which coherent combinations of activities are being executed by management accountants in 2013 in the Netherlands by master-graduates? And secondly which triggers of management accountants' activities predict to which cluster a management accountant belongs? The conceptual model of this research has been developed in 2004 (Verstegen B. , Loo, Mol, Slagter, & Geerkens, 2007). For this research the same 37 activities as in the former researches are included (appendix 1). In the trigger-set (appendix 1) some adaptations have been made for reasons of restricting the length of the survey and to pinpoint on particular research goals (e.g. personality and levers of control). The coherent combinations of activities were found by a factor-analysis and the groups of controllers by a cluster analysis. A regression analysis shows which trigger-items are most significant. The survey has been sent to 2.353 students that finished a controller-study on a Dutch University. There was a 9% (211) response with a completely filled survey. 137 of which indicated to work in a controller-function at the moment. These controllers have been included in the results. The factor-analysis results in six different coherent combinations of activities (factors). Shortly these factors are: advising top management on strategic level with result-effecting information (1), organizing internal reporting (2) organizing and representing the organization on external reporting (3), advising and managing changes by shortcomings in processes and control systems (4), maintaining and managing administrative organization- , information- and control systems (5) and organizing/executing risk management and internal audit (6). Factors 4, 5 and 6 are clustered in cluster TYPE I (125 controllers) and factors 1, 2 and 3 in cluster TYPE II (69 controllers). TYPE II can be associated with the management accountant role 'Business Partner', although the accountant keeps partly active in a scorekeeper role. The four most significant triggers for predicting being a TYPE II controller are 'Executing a risk-management task in order to meet compliance standards' (1), extraversion (2), company size in terms of fte (3) and gender (4).

Threat Analysis of BlackEnergy Malware for Synchrophasor based Real-time Control and Monitoring in Smart Grid

The BlackEnergy malware targeting critical infrastructures has a long history. It evolved over time from a simple DDoS platform to a quite sophisticated plug-in based malware. The plug-in architecture has a persistent malware core with easily installable attack specific modules for DDoS, spamming, info-stealing, remote access, boot-sector formatting etc. BlackEnergy has been involved in several high profile cyber physical attacks including the recent Ukraine power grid attack in December 2015. This paper investigates the evolution of BlackEnergy and its cyber attack capabilities. It presents a basic cyber attack model used by BlackEnergy for targeting industrial control systems. In particular, the paper analyzes cyber threats of BlackEnergy for synchrophasor based systems which are used for real-time control and monitoring functionalities in smart grid. Several BlackEnergy based attack scenarios have been investigated by exploiting the vulnerabilities in two widely used synchrophasor communication standards: (i) IEEE C37.118 and (ii) IEC 61850-90-5. Specifically, the paper addresses reconnaissance, DDoS, man-in-the-middle and replay/reflection attacks on IEEE C37.118 and IEC 61850-90-5. Further, the paper also investigates protection strategies for detection and prevention of BlackEnergy based cyber physical attacks.

Residence Time Distribution (Rtd) Associated with Statistical Weighted Moments to Fit Mathematical Models Using In Industrial Systems Diagnosis

This work presents a computational, called MOMENTS, code developed to be used in process control to determine a characteristic transfer function to industrial units when radiotracer techniques were been applied to study the unit´s performance. The methodology is based on the measuring the residence time distribution function (RTD) and calculate the first and second temporal moments of the tracer data obtained by two scintillators detectors NaI positioned to register a complete tracer movement inside the unit. Non linear regression technique has been used to fit various mathematical models and a statistical test was used to select the best result to the transfer function. Using the code MOMENTS, twelve different models can be used to fit a curve and calculate technical parameters to the unit.

Lógica borrosa para la estimación de estados críticos de una pila de combustible PEM

La determinación en tiempo real de los estados críticos de operación de la pila de combustible de membrana intercambio protónico (siglas en ingles, PEM) es uno de los principales retos para los sistemas de control de pilas de combustible PEM. En este trabajo, se presenta el desarrollo e implementación de un método no invasivo de bajo coste basado en técnicas de decisión borrosa que permite estimar los estados críticos de operación de la pila de combustible PEM. La estimación se realiza mediante perturbaciones al estado de operación de la pila y el análisis posterior de la evolución temporal del voltaje generado por la pila. La implementación de esta técnica de estimulación-percepción de estado de la pila de combustible para la detección de estados críticos constituye una novedad y un paso hacia el control autónomo en óptimas condiciones de la operación de las pilas de combustible PEM.

MACVIA-ARIA Sentinel NetworK for allergic rhinitis (MASK-rhinitis): the new generation guideline implementation

Several unmet needs have been identified in allergic rhinitis: identification of the time of onset of the pollen season, optimal control of rhinitis and comorbidities, patient stratification, multidisciplinary team for integrated care pathways, innovation in clinical trials and, above all, patient empowerment. MASK-rhinitis (MACVIA-ARIA Sentinel NetworK for allergic rhinitis) is a simple system centred around the patient which was devised to fill many of these gaps using Information and Communications Technology (ICT) tools and a clinical decision support system (CDSS) based on the most widely used guideline in allergic rhinitis and its asthma comorbidity (ARIA 2015 revision). It is one of the implementation systems of Action Plan B3 of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA). Three tools are used for the electronic monitoring of allergic diseases: a cell phone-based daily visual analogue scale (VAS) assessment of disease control, CARAT (Control of Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Test) and e-Allergy screening (premedical system of early diagnosis of allergy and asthma based on online tools). These tools are combined with a clinical decision support system (CDSS) and are available in many languages. An e-CRF and an e-learning tool complete MASK. MASK is flexible and other tools can be added. It appears to be an advanced, global and integrated ICT answer for many unmet needs in allergic diseases which will improve policies and standards.

Modeling perspective for the relevant market of voice services: mobile to mobile

Los mercados asociados a los servicios de voz móvil a móvil, brindados por operadoras del Sistema Móvil Avanzado en Latinoamérica, han estado sujetos a procesos regulatorios motivados por la dominancia en el mercado de un operador, buscando obtener óptimas condiciones de competencia. Específicamente en Ecuador, la Superintendencia de Telecomunicaciones (Organismo Técnico de Control de Telecomunicaciones) desarrolló un modelo para identificar acciones de regulación que puedan proporcionar al mercado efectos sostenibles de competencia en el largo plazo. Este artículo trata sobre la aplicación de la ingeniería de control para desarrollar un modelo integral del mercado, empleando redes neuronales para la predicción de trarifas de cada operador y un modelo de lógica difusa para predecir la demanda. Adicionalmente, se presenta un modelo de inferencia de lógica difusa para reproducir las estrategias de mercadeo de los operadores y la influencia sobre las tarifas. Dichos modelos permitirían la toma adecuada de decisiones y fueron validados con datos reales.

Optimal sequence of landfills in solid waste management

Given that landfills are depletable and replaceable resources, the right approach, when dealing with landfill management, is that of designing an optimal sequence of landfills rather than designing every single landfill separately. In this paper we use Optimal Control models, with mixed elements of both continuous and discrete time problems, to determine an optimal sequence of landfills, as regarding their capacity and lifetime. The resulting optimization problems involve splitting a time horizon of planning into several subintervals, the length of which has to be decided. In each of the subintervals some costs, the amount of which depends on the value of the decision variables, have to be borne. The obtained results may be applied to other economic problems such as private and public investments, consumption decisions on durable goods, etc.

Branch and Bound algorithms in greenhouse climate control

The horticultural sector has become an increasingly important sector of food production, for which greenhouse climate control plays a vital role in improving its sustainability. One of the methods to control the greenhouse climate is Model Predictive Control, which can be optimized through a branch and bound algorithm. The application of the algorithm in literature is examined and analyzed through small examples, and later extended to greenhouse climate simulation. A comparison is made of various alternative objective functions available in literature. Subsequently, a modidified version of the B&B algorithm is presented, which reduces the number of node evaluations required for optimization. Finally, three alternative algorithms are developed and compared to consider the optimization problem from a discrete to a continuous control space.

Pressure management in water distribution systems: current status, proposals, and future trends

Pressure management (PM) is commonly used in water distribution systems (WDSs). In the last decade, a strategic objective in the field has been the development of new scientific and technical methods for its implementation. However, due to a lack of systematic analysis of the results obtained in practical cases, progress has not always been reflected in practical actions. To address this problem, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the most innovative issues related to PM. The methodology proposed is based on a case-study comparison of qualitative concepts that involves published work from 140 sources. The results include a qualitative analysis covering four aspects: (1) the objectives yielded by PM; (2) types of regulation, including advanced control systems through electronic controllers; (3) new methods for designing districts; and (4) development of optimization models associated with PM. The evolution of the aforementioned four aspects is examined and discussed. Conclusions regarding the current status of each factor are drawn and proposals for future research outlined