Three essays on major trends in a slow clockspeed industry : the case of industrial automation

The motivation for this research initiated from the abrupt rise and fall of minicomputers which were initially used both for industrial automation and business applications due to their significantly lower cost than their predecessors, the mainframes. Later industrial automation developed its own vertically integrated hardware and software to address the application needs of uninterrupted operations, real-time control and resilience to harsh environmental conditions. This has led to the creation of an independent industry, namely industrial automation used in PLC, DCS, SCADA and robot control systems. This industry employs today over 200'000 people in a profitable slow clockspeed context in contrast to the two mainstream computing industries of information technology (IT) focused on business applications and telecommunications focused on communications networks and hand-held devices. Already in 1990s it was foreseen that IT and communication would merge into one Information and communication industry (ICT). The fundamental question of the thesis is: Could industrial automation leverage a common technology platform with the newly formed ICT industry? Computer systems dominated by complex instruction set computers (CISC) were challenged during 1990s with higher performance reduced instruction set computers (RISC). RISC started to evolve parallel to the constant advancement of Moore's law. These developments created the high performance and low energy consumption System-on-Chip architecture (SoC). Unlike to the CISC processors RISC processor architecture is a separate industry from the RISC chip manufacturing industry. It also has several hardware independent software platforms consisting of integrated operating system, development environment, user interface and application market which enables customers to have more choices due to hardware independent real time capable software applications. An architecture disruption merged and the smartphone and tablet market were formed with new rules and new key players in the ICT industry. Today there are more RISC computer systems running Linux (or other Unix variants) than any other computer system. The astonishing rise of SoC based technologies and related software platforms in smartphones created in unit terms the largest installed base ever seen in the history of computers and is now being further extended by tablets. An underlying additional element of this transition is the increasing role of open source technologies both in software and hardware. This has driven the microprocessor based personal computer industry with few dominating closed operating system platforms into a steep decline. A significant factor in this process has been the separation of processor architecture and processor chip production and operating systems and application development platforms merger into integrated software platforms with proprietary application markets. Furthermore the pay-by-click marketing has changed the way applications development is compensated: Three essays on major trends in a slow clockspeed industry: The case of industrial automation 2014 freeware, ad based or licensed - all at a lower price and used by a wider customer base than ever before. Moreover, the concept of software maintenance contract is very remote in the app world. However, as a slow clockspeed industry, industrial automation has remained intact during the disruptions based on SoC and related software platforms in the ICT industries. Industrial automation incumbents continue to supply systems based on vertically integrated systems consisting of proprietary software and proprietary mainly microprocessor based hardware. They enjoy admirable profitability levels on a very narrow customer base due to strong technology-enabled customer lock-in and customers' high risk leverage as their production is dependent on fault-free operation of the industrial automation systems. When will this balance of power be disrupted? The thesis suggests how industrial automation could join the mainstream ICT industry and create an information, communication and automation (ICAT) industry. Lately the Internet of Things (loT) and weightless networks, a new standard leveraging frequency channels earlier occupied by TV broadcasting, have gradually started to change the rigid world of Machine to Machine (M2M) interaction. It is foreseeable that enough momentum will be created that the industrial automation market will in due course face an architecture disruption empowered by these new trends. This thesis examines the current state of industrial automation subject to the competition between the incumbents firstly through a research on cost competitiveness efforts in captive outsourcing of engineering, research and development and secondly researching process re- engineering in the case of complex system global software support. Thirdly we investigate the industry actors', namely customers, incumbents and newcomers, views on the future direction of industrial automation and conclude with our assessments of the possible routes industrial automation could advance taking into account the looming rise of the Internet of Things (loT) and weightless networks. Industrial automation is an industry dominated by a handful of global players each of them focusing on maintaining their own proprietary solutions. The rise of de facto standards like IBM PC, Unix and Linux and SoC leveraged by IBM, Compaq, Dell, HP, ARM, Apple, Google, Samsung and others have created new markets of personal computers, smartphone and tablets and will eventually also impact industrial automation through game changing commoditization and related control point and business model changes. This trend will inevitably continue, but the transition to a commoditized industrial automation will not happen in the near future.

A Robust Multiple Feature Approach To Endpoint Detection In Car Environment Based On Advanced Classifiers

In this paper we propose an endpoint detection system based on the use of several features extracted from each speech frame, followed by a robust classifier (i.e Adaboost and Bagging of decision trees, and a multilayer perceptron) and a finite state automata (FSA). We present results for four different classifiers. The FSA module consisted of a 4-state decision logic that filtered false alarms and false positives. We compare the use of four different classifiers in this task. The look ahead of the method that we propose was of 7 frames, which are the number of frames that maximized the accuracy of the system. The system was tested with real signals recorded inside a car, with signal to noise ratio that ranged from 6 dB to 30dB. Finally we present experimental results demonstrating that the system yields robust endpoint detection.

Issue review : construction status and operating costs of new corrections beds.

This issue review provides information on the Department of Corrections construction and of proposed staffing for additional beds in the prison system and community-based corrections.

Genotype and environment interaction on soybean yield in Mato Grosso State, Brazil

The objective of this work was to investigate the genotype-environment interaction in Mato Grosso State, MT. The relative importance of locations, years, sowing dates and cultivars and their interactions was analyzed from data collected in regional yield trials performed in a randomized complete block design with four replications, from 1994-1995 through 1999-2000, in nine locations and two sowing dates. Individual and pooled analyses of variance over years and locations were performed. Complementary analyses of variances partitioned MT State in two main and five smaller regions, respectively: North and South of Cuiabá; and MT-South-A (Pedra Preta area), MT-South-B (Rondonópolis and Itiquira), MT-East (Primavera do Leste and Campo Verde), MT-Central (Nova Mutum, Lucas do Rio Verde and Sorriso) and MT-Parecis (Campo Novo dos Parecis and Sapezal). Locations are relatively more important than years for yield testing soybeans in the MT State, therefore, investment should be made in increasing locations rather than years to improve experimental precision. Partitioning the MT State into regions has little impact on soybean yield testing results and, consequently, on the efficiency of the soybean breeding program in the State. Breeding genotypes with broad adaptation for the MT State is an efficient strategy for cultivar development.

The path: sustainable development in conjunction with meeting the demands of a changing environment.

In the context of severe economic recession, the Library is compelled to adapt to this changing environment, in order to meet the requirements and demands of users with very specific needs. Taking the pillars of sustainable development as a reference point, and extrapolating them to our domain, we establish the next main goals

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

Pattern-based sensing of nucleotides in aqueous solution with a multicomponent indicator displacement assay

A multicomponent indicator displacement assay ( MIDA) based on an organometallic receptor and three dyes can be used for the identification and quantification of nucleotides in aqueous solution at neutral pH.

Sensing the environment : a role for the mouse olfactory subsystems

Summary : Four distinct olfactory subsystems compose the mouse olfactory system, the main olfactory epithelium (MOE), the septal organ of Masera (SO), the vomeronasal organ (VNO) and the Grueneberg ganglion (GG). They are implicated in the sensory modalities of the animal and they evolved to analyse and discriminate molecules carrying chemical messages, such as odorants and pheromones. In this thesis, the VNO, principally implicated in pheromonal communications as well as the GG, which had no function attributed until this work, were investigated from their morphology to their physiological functions, using an array of biochemical and physiological methods. First, the roles of a particular protein, the CNGA4 ion channel, were investigated in the VNO. In the MOE, CNGA4 is expressed as a modulatory channel subunit implicated in odour discrimination and adaptation. Interestingly, this calcium channel is the unique member of the cyclic nucleotide-gated (CNG) family to be expressed in the VNO and up to this work its functions remained unknown. Using a combination of transgenic and knockout mice, as well as histological and physiological approaches, we have characterized CNGA4 expression in the VNO. A strong expression in immature neurons was found as well as in the microvilli of mature neurons (putative site of chemodetection). Interestingly and confirming its dual localisation, the genetic invalidation of the CNGA4 channel has, as consequences, a strong impairment in vomeronasal maturation as well as deficit in pheromone sensing. Thus the CNGA4 channel appears to be a multifunctional protein in the mouse VNO playing essential role(s) in this organ. During the second part of the work, the morphology of the most recently described olfactory subsystem, the Grueneberg ganglion, was investigated in detail. Interestingly we found that glial cells and ciliated neurons compose this olfactory ganglion. This particular morphological aspect was similar to the olfactory AWC neurons from C. elegans which was used for further comparisons. Thus as for AWC neurons, we found that GG neurons are sensitive to temperature changes and are able to detect highly volatile molecules. Indeed, the presence of alarm pheromones (APs) secreted by stressed mice, elicit strong cellular responses, as well as a GG dependent behavioural changes. Investigations on the signaling elements present in GG neurons revealed that, as for AWC neurons, or pGC-D expressing neurons from the MOE, proteins participating in a cGMP pathway were found in GG neurons such as pGC-G and CNGA3 channels. These two proteins might be implicated in chemosensing as well as in thermosensing, two apparent properties of this organ. In this thesis, the multisensory modalities of two mouse olfactory subsystems were described and are related to a high degree of complexity required for the animal to sense its environment

Demonstration Project 85, Video Imagery Systems for Highway Applications, HR-1047, 1990

The report describes the state of the art video equipment used and experiences gained from the 6,800 mile field test. The first objective of this project was to determine if laser disc equipment could capture and store usable roadway images while operating in a mobile environment. The second objective was to evaluate methods of using optical disc storage and retrieval features to enhance highway planning and design function. Several highway departments have attempted to use video technology to replace the traditional 16 and 35 mm film format used in photologging. These attempts have met with limited success because of the distortion caused by video technology not being capable of dealing with highway speeds. The distortion has caused many highway signs to be unreadable and, therefore, clients have labeled the technology unusable. Two methods of using optical laser disc storage and retrieval have been successfully demonstrated by Wisconsin and Connecticut Departments of Transportation. Each method provides instantaneous retrieval and linking of images with other information. However, both methods gather the images using 35 mm film techniques. The 35 mm film image is then transferred to laser disc. Eliminating the film conversion to laser disc has potential for saving $4 to $5 per logging mile. In addition to a cost savings, the image would be available immediately as opposed to delays caused by film developing and transferring to laser disc. In June and November of 1986 Iowa DOT staff and cooperating equipment suppliers demonstrated the concept of direct image capture. The results from these tests were promising and an FHWA Demonstration program established. Since 1986 technology advancements have been incorporated into the design that further improve the image quality originally demonstrated.

Development of Object-Oriented Design and Specifications for Iowa DOT and Urban Standards: Phase I, TR-487, 2004

Currently, individuals including designers, contractors, and owners learn about the project requirements by studying a combination of paper and electronic copies of the construction documents including the drawings, specifications (standard and supplemental), road and bridge standard drawings, design criteria, contracts, addenda, and change orders. This can be a tedious process since one needs to go back and forth between the various documents (paper or electronic) to obtain information about the entire project. Object-oriented computer-aided design (OO-CAD) is an innovative technology that can bring a change to this process by graphical portrayal of information. OO-CAD allows users to point and click on portions of an object-oriented drawing that are then linked to relevant databases of information (e.g., specifications, procurement status, and shop drawings). The vision of this study is to turn paper-based design standards and construction specifications into an object-oriented design and specification (OODAS) system or a visual electronic reference library (ERL). Individuals can use the system through a handheld wireless book-size laptop that includes all of the necessary software for operating in a 3D environment. All parties involved in transportation projects can access all of the standards and requirements simultaneously using a 3D graphical interface. By using this system, users will have all of the design elements and all of the specifications readily available without concerns of omissions. A prototype object-oriented model was created and demonstrated to potential users representing counties, cities, and the state. Findings suggest that a system like this could improve productivity to find information by as much as 75% and provide a greater sense of confidence that all relevant information had been identified. It was also apparent that this system would be used by more people in construction than in design. There was also concern related to the cost to develop and maintain the complete system. The future direction should focus on a project-based system that can help the contractors and DOT inspectors find information (e.g., road standards, specifications, instructional memorandums) more rapidly as it pertains to a specific project.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Biological Sampling and Physical Habitat Assessment Standard Operating Procedure for Iowa Wadeable Streams and Rivers, July 24, 2015

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources uses benthic macroinvertebrate and fish sampling data to assess stream biological condition and the support status of designated aquatic life uses (Wilton 2004; IDNR 2013). Stream physical habitat data assist with the interpretation of biological sampling results by quantifying important physical characteristics that influence a stream’s ability to support a healthy aquatic community (Heitke et al., 2006; Rowe et al. 2009; Sindt et al., 2012). This document describes aquatic community sampling and physical habitat assessment procedures currently followed in the Iowa stream biological assessment program. Standardized biological sampling and physical habitat assessment procedures were first established following a pilot sampling study in 1994 (IDNR 1994a, 1994b). The procedure documents were last updated in 2001 (IDNR 2001a; 2001b). The biological sampling and physical habitat assessment procedures described below are evaluated on a continual basis. Revision of this working document will occur periodically to reflect additional changes.

Genes, environment and sex : perspectives from ectothermic vertebrates

RESUMELes modèles classiques sur l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels supposent que des gènes sexe- antagonistes s'accumulent sur les chromosomes sexuels, entraînant ainsi l'apparition d'une région non- recombinante, qui se répand progressivement en favorisant l'accumulation de mutations délétères. En accord avec cette théorie, les chromosomes sexuels que l'on observe aujourd'hui chez les mammifères et les oiseaux sont considérablement différenciés. En revanche, chez la plupart des vertébrés ectothermes, les chromosomes sexuels sont indifférenciés et il existe une impressionnante diversité de mécanismes de détermination du sexe. Au cours de cette thèse, j'ai étudié l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels chez les vertébrés ectothermes, en outre pour mieux comprendre ce contraste avec les vertébrés endothermes. L'hypothèse « high-turnover » postule que les chromosomes sexuels sont remplacés régulièrement à partir d'autosomes afin d'éviter leur dégénérescence. L'hypothèse « fountain-of-youth » propose que la recombinaison entre le chromosome X et le chromosome Y au sein de femelles XY empêche la dégénérescence. Les résultats de ma thèse, basés sur des études théoriques et empiriques, suggèrent que les deux processus peuvent être entraînés par l'environnement et ainsi jouent un rôle important dans l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels chez les vertébrés ectothermes.SUMMARYClassical models of sex-chromosome evolution assume that sexually antagonistic genes accumulate on sex chromosomes leading to a non-recombining region, which progressively expands and favors the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Concordant with this theory, sex chromosomes in extant mammals and birds are considerably differentiated. In most ectothermic vertebrates, such as frogs, however, sex chromosomes are undifferentiated and a striking diversity of sex determination systems is observed. This thesis was aimed to investigate this apparent contrast of sex chromosome evolution between endothermic and ectothermic vertebrates. The "high-turnover" hypothesis holds that sex chromosomes arose regularly from autosomes preventing decay. The "fountain-of-youth" hypothesis posits that sex chromosomes undergo episodic X-Y recombination in sex-reversed XY females, thereby purging ("rejuvenating") the Y chromosome. We suggest that both processes likely played an important role in sex chromosome evolution of ectothermic vertebrates. The literature largely views sex determination as a dichotomous process: individual sex is assumed to be determined either by genetic (genotypic sex determination, GSD) or by environmental factors (environmental sex determination, ESD), most often temperature (temperature sex determination, TSD). We endorsed an alternative view, which sees GSD and TSD as the ends of a continuum. The conservatism of molecular processes among different systems of sex determination strongly supports the continuum view. We proposed to define sex as a threshold trait underlain by a liability factor, and reaction norms allowing modeling interactions between genotypic and temperature effects. We showed that temperature changes (due to e.g., climatic changes or range expansions) are expected to provoke turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms maintaining homomorphic sex chromosomes. The balanced lethal system of crested newts might be the result of such a sex determination turnover, originating from two variants of ancient Y-chromosomes. Observations from a group of tree frogs, on the other hand, supported the 'fountain of youth' hypothesis. We then showed that low rates of sex- reversals in species with GSD might actually be adaptive considering joint effects of deleterious mutation purging and sexually antagonistic selection. Ongoing climatic changes are expected to threaten species with TSD by biasing population sex ratios. In contrast, species with GSD are implicitly assumed immune against such changes, because genetic systems are thought to necessarily produce even sex ratios. We showed that this assumption may be wrong and that sex-ratio biases by climatic changes may represent a previously unrecognized extinction threat for some GSD species.

Multivariate analyses of genotype x environment interaction of popcorn

The objectives of this work were to evaluate the genotype x environment (GxE) interaction for popcorn and to compare two multivariate analyses methods. Nine popcorn cultivars were sown on four dates one month apart during each of the agricultural years 1998/1999 and 1999/2000. The experiments were carried out using randomized block designs, with four replicates. The cv. Zélia contributed the least to the GxE interaction. The cv. Viçosa performed similarly to cv. Rosa-claro. Optimization of GxE was obtained for cv. CMS 42 for a favorable mega-environment, and for cv. CMS 43 for an unfavorable environment. Multivariate analysis supported the results from the method of Eberhart & Russell. The graphic analysis of the Additive Main effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) model was simple, allowing conclusions to be made about stability, genotypic performance, genetic divergence between cultivars, and the environments that optimize cultivar performance. The graphic analysis of the Genotype main effects and Genotype x Environment interaction (GGE) method added to AMMI information on environmental stratification, defining mega-environments and the cultivars that optimized performance in those mega-environments. Both methods are adequate to explain the genotype x environment interactions.

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.