Investigation of orographic features influencing spatial distribution of rainfall over the Western Ghats of India using satellite data

Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.

India-Madagascar paleo-fit based on flexural isostasy of their rifted margins

The present study contributes new constraints on, and definitions of, the reconstructed plate margins of India and Madagascar based on flexural isostasy along the Western Continental Margin of India (WCMI) and the Eastern Continental Margin of Madagascar (ECMM). We have estimated the nature of isostasy and crustal geometry along the two margins, and have examined their possible conjugate structure. Here we utilize elastic thickness (Te) and Moho depth data as the primary basis for the correlation of these passive margins. We employ the flexure inversion technique that operates in spatial domain in order to estimate the spatial variation of effective elastic thickness. Gravity inversion and flexure inversion techniques are used to estimate the configuration of the Moho/Crust-Mantle Interface that reveals regional correlations with the elastic thickness variations. These results correlate well with the continental and oceanic segments of the Indian and African plates. The present study has found a linear zone of anomalously low-Te (1-5 km) along the WCMI (similar to 1680 km), which correlates well with the low-Te patterns obtained all along the ECMM. We suggest that the low-Te zones along the WCMI and ECMM represent paleo-rift inception points of lithosphere thermally and mechanically weakened by the combined effects of the Marion hotspot and lithospheric extension due to rifting. We have produced an India-Madagascar paleo-fit representing the initial phase of separation based on the Te estimates of the rifted conjugate margins, which is confirmed by a close-fit correlation of Moho geometry and bathymetry of the shelf margins. The matching of tectonic lineaments, lithologies and geochronological belts between India and Madagascar provide an additional support for the present plate reconstruction. (C) 2014 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of high-pressure mafic granulites and pelitic gneisses from NE Madagascar: Tectonic implications

The occurrence of high-pressure mafic-ultramafic bodies within major shear zones is one of the indicators of paleo-subduction. In mafic granulites of the Andriamena complex (north-eastern Madagascar) we document unusual textures including garnet-clinopyroxene-quartz coronas that formed after the breakdown of orthopyroxene-plagioclase-ilmenite. Textural evidence and isochemical phase diagram calculations in the Na2O-CaO-K2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O-TiO2 system indicate a pressure-temperature (P-T) evolution from an isothermal (780 degrees C) pressure up to c. 24 kbar to decompression and cooling. Such a P-T trajectory is typically attained in a subduction zone setting where a gabbroic/ultramafic complex is subducted and later exhumed to the present crustal level during oceanic closure and final continental collision. The present results suggest that the presence of such deeply subducted rocks of the Andriamena complex is related to formation of the Betsimisaraka suture. LA-ICPMS U-Pb zircon dating of pelitic gneisses from the Betsimisaraka suture yields low Th/U ratios and protolith ages ranging from 2535 to 2625 Ma. A granitic gneiss from the Alaotra complex yields a zircon crystallization age of ca. 818 Ma and Th/U ratios vary from 1.08 to 2.09. K-Ar dating of muscovite and biotite from biotite-kyanite-sillimanite gneiss and garnet-biotite gneiss yields age of 486 +/- 9 Ma and 459 +/- 9 Ma respectively. We have estimated regional crustal thicknesses in NE Madagascar using a flexural inversion technique, which indicates the presence of an anomalously thick crust (c. 43 km) beneath the Antananarivo block. This result is consistent with the present concept that subduction beneath the Antananarivo block resulted in a more competent and thicker crust. The textural data, thermodynamic model, and geophysical evidence together provide a new insight to the subduction history, crustal thickening and evolution of the high-pressure Andriamena complex and its link to the terminal formation of the Betsimisaraka suture in north-eastern Madagascar. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential source identification for aerosol concentrations over a site in Northwestern India

The collocated measurements of aerosols size distribution (ASD) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) are analyzed simultaneously using Grimm aerosol spectrometer and MICROTOP II Sunphotometer over Jaipur, capital of Rajasthan in India. The contrast temperature characteristics during winter and summer seasons of year 2011 are investigated in the present study. The total aerosol number concentration (TANC, 0.3-20 mu m) during winter season was observed higher than in summer time and it was dominated by fine aerosol number concentration (FANC < 2 mu m). Particles smaller than 0.8 mu m (at aerodynamic size) constitute similar to 99% of all particles in winter and similar to 90% of particles in summer season. However, particles greater than 2 mu m contribute similar to 3% and similar to 0.2% in summer and winter seasons respectively. The aerosols optical thickness shows nearly similar AOT values during summer and winter but corresponding low Angstrom Exponent (AE) values during summer than winter, respectively. In this work, Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis is applied to identify locations of sources that influenced concentrations of aerosols over study area in two different seasons. PSCF analysis shows that the dust particles from That Desert contribute significantly to the coarse aerosol number concentration (CANC). Higher values of the PSCF in north from Jaipur showed the industrial areas in northern India to be the likely sources of fine particles. The variation in size distribution of aerosols during two seasons is clearly reflected in the log normal size distribution curves. The log normal size distribution curves reveals that the particle size less than 0.8 pm is the key contributor in winter for higher ANC. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the fine-scale structure of the diurnal cycle of tropical rain and lightning

In this study, the fine-scale structure of the diurnal variability of ground-based lightning is systematically compared with satellite-based rain. At the outset, it is shown that tropical variability of lightning exhibits a prominent diurnal mode, much like rain. A comparison of the geographical distribution of the timing of the diurnal maximum shows that there is very good agreement between the two observables over continental and coastal regions throughout the tropics. Following this global tropical comparison, we focus on two regions, Borneo and equatorial South America, both of which show the interplay between oceanward and landward propagations of the phase of the diurnal maximum. Over Borneo, both rain and lightning clearly show a climatological cycle of ``breathing in'' (afternoon to early morning) and ``breathing out'' (morning to early afternoon). Over the equatorial east coast of South America, landward propagation is noticed in rain and lightning from early afternoon to early morning. Along the Pacific coast of South America, both rain and lightning show oceanward propagation. Though qualitatively consistent, over both regions the propagation is seen to extend further in rainfall. Additionally, given that lightning highlights vigorous convection, the timing of its diurnal maximum often precedes that of rainfall in the convective life cycle. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

Meridional gradients in aerosol vertical distribution over Indian Mainland: Observations and model simulations

Multi-year observations from the network of ground-based observatories (ARFINET), established under the project `Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India' (ARFI) of Indian Space Research Organization and space-borne lidar `Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization' (CALIOP) along with simulations from the chemical transport model `Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport' (GOCART), are used to characterize the vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosols over the Indian landmass and its spatial structure. While the vertical distribution of aerosol extinction showed higher values close to the surface followed by a gradual decrease at increasing altitudes, a strong meridional increase is observed in the vertical spread of aerosols across the Indian region in all seasons. It emerges that the strong thermal convections cause deepening of the atmospheric boundary layer, which although reduces the aerosol concentration at lower altitudes, enhances the concentration at higher elevations by pumping up more aerosols from below and also helping the lofted particles to reach higher levels in the atmosphere. Aerosol depolarization ratios derived from CALIPSO as well as the GOCART simulations indicate the dominance of mineral dust aerosols during spring and summer and anthropogenic aerosols in winter. During summer monsoon, though heavy rainfall associated with the Indian monsoon removes large amounts of aerosols, the prevailing southwesterly winds advect more marine aerosols over to landmass (from the adjoining oceans) leading to increase in aerosol loading at lower altitudes than in spring. During spring and summer months, aerosol loading is found to be significant, even at altitudes as high as 4 km, and this is proposed to have significant impacts on the regional climate systems such as Indian monsoon. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigations of aerosol black carbon from a semi-urban site in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region

Long-term (2009-2012) data from ground-based measurements of aerosol black carbon (BC) from a semi-urban site, Pantnagar (29.0 degrees N, 79.5 degrees E, 231 m amsl), in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) near the Himalayan foothills are analyzed to study the regional characterization. Large variations are seen in BC at both diurnal and seasonal scales, associated with the mesoscale and synoptic meteorological processes, and local/regional anthropogenic activities. BC diurnal variations show two peaks (morning and evening) arising from the combined effects of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics and local emissions. The diurnal amplitudes as well as the rates of diurnal evolution are the highest in winter season, followed by autumn, and the lowest in summer-monsoon. BC exhibits nearly an inverse relation with mixing layer depth in all seasons; being strongest in winter (R-2 = 0.89) and weakest (R-2 = 0.33) in monsoon (July-August). Unlike BC, co-located aerosol optical depths (AOD) and aerosol absorption are highest in spring over IGP, probably due to the presence of higher abundances of aerosols (including dust) above the ABL (in the free troposphere). AOD (500 nm) showed annual peak (>0.6) in May-June, dominated by coarse mode, while fine mode aerosols dominated in late autumn and early winter. Aerosols profiles from CALIPSO show highest values close to the surface in winter/autumn, similar to the feature seen in surface BC, whereas at altitudes > 2 km, the extinction is maximum in spring/summer. WRF-Chem model is used to simulate BC temporal variations and then compared with observed BC. The model captures most of the important features of the diurnal and seasonal variations but significantly underestimated the observed BC levels, suggesting improvements in diurnal and seasonal varying BC emissions apart from the boundary layer processes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the under-estimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial pattern of mineral dust over the Indian region. We find that both meteorological forcing and emission formulation contribute to these differences. Since AOD is column integrated parameter, description of vertical profiles in both models, especially since elevated aerosol layers are often observed over Indian region, could be also a contributing factor. Additionally, differences in the prescription of the optical properties of BC between the models appear to affect the AOD simulations. We also compared simulation of sea-salt concentration in the two models and found that WRF-Chem underestimated its concentration vis-a-vis SPRINTARS. The differences in near-surface oceanic wind speeds appear to be the main source of this difference. In-spite of these differences, we note that there are similarities in their simulation of spatial patterns of various aerosol species (with each other and with observations) and hence models could be valuable tools for aerosol-related studies over the Indian region. Better estimation of emission inventories could improve aerosol-related simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.

Quasi-geostrophic dynamics in the presence of moisture gradients

The derivation of a quasi-geostrophic system from the rotating shallow-water equations on a midlatitude -plane coupled with moisture is presented. Condensation is prescribed to occur whenever the moisture at a point exceeds a prescribed saturation value. It is seen that a slow condensation time-scale is required to obtain a consistent set of equations at leading order. Further, since the advecting wind fields are geostrophic, changes in moisture (and hence precipitation) occur only via non-divergent mechanisms. Following observations, a saturation profile with gradients in the zonal and meridional directions is prescribed. A purely meridional gradient has the effect of slowing down the dry Rossby waves, through a reduction in the equivalent gradient' of the background potential vorticity. A large-scale unstable moist mode results on the inclusion of a zonal gradient by itself, or in conjunction with a meridional moisture gradient. For gradients that are are representative of the atmosphere, the most unstable moist mode propagates zonally in the direction of increasing moisture, matures over an intraseasonal time-scale and has small phase speed.

Anthropogenic aerosol fraction over the Indian region: model simulations versus multi-satellite data analysis

Anthropogenic aerosols play a crucial role in our environment, climate, and health. Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in anthropogenic aerosols is essential to determine their impact. Aerosols are of natural and anthropogenic origin and together constitute a composite aerosol system. Information about either component needs elimination of the other from the composite aerosol system. In the present work we estimated the anthropogenic aerosol fraction (AF) over the Indian region following two different approaches and inter-compared the estimates. We espouse multi-satellite data analysis and model simulations (using the CHIMERE Chemical transport model) to derive natural aerosol distribution, which was subsequently used to estimate AF over the Indian subcontinent. These two approaches are significantly different from each other. Natural aerosol satellite-derived information was extracted in terms of optical depth while model simulations yielded mass concentration. Anthropogenic aerosol fraction distribution was studied over two periods in 2008: premonsoon (March-May) and winter (November-February) in regard to the known distinct seasonality in aerosol loading and type over the Indian region. Although both techniques have derived the same property, considerable differences were noted in temporal and spatial distribution. Satellite retrieval of AF showed maximum values during the pre-monsoon and summer months while lowest values were observed in winter. On the other hand, model simulations showed the highest concentration of AF in winter and the lowest during pre-monsoon and summer months. Both techniques provided an annual average AF of comparable magnitude (similar to 0.43 +/- 0.06 from the satellite and similar to 0.48 +/- 0.19 from the model). For winter months the model-estimated AF was similar to 0.62 +/- 0.09, significantly higher than that (0.39 +/- 0.05) estimated from the satellite, while during pre-monsoon months satellite-estimated AF was similar to 0.46 +/- 0.06 and the model simulation estimation similar to 0.53 +/- 0.14. Preliminary results from this work indicate that model-simulated results are nearer to the actual variation as compared to satellite estimation in view of general seasonal variation in aerosol concentrations.