Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations

In this paper, we describe how to analyze boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations over an infinite interval. Several physical problems of interest are governed by such systems. The seminumerical schemes described here offer some advantages over solutions obtained by using traditional methods such as finite differences, shooting method, etc. These techniques also reveal the analytic structure of the solution function. For illustrative purposes, several physical problems, mainly drawn from fluid mechanics, are considered; they clearly demonstrate the efficiency of the techniques presented here.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations

In this paper, we describe how to analyze boundary value problems for third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations over an infinite interval. Several physical problems of interest are governed by such systems. The seminumerical schemes described here offer some advantages over solutions obtained by using traditional methods such as finite differences, shooting method, etc. These techniques also reveal the analytic structure of the solution function. For illustrative purposes, several physical problems, mainly drawn from fluid mechanics, are considered; they clearly demonstrate the efficiency of the techniques presented here.

On an asymptotic method of Krylov-Bogoliubov for overdamped nonlinear systems

A general asymptotic method based on the work of Krylov-Bogoliubov is developed to obtain the response of nonlinear over damped systems. A second-order system with both roots real is treated first and the method is then extended to higher-order systems. Two illustrative examples show good agreement with results obtained by numerical integration.

Benedict-Webb-Rubin equation of state constants for N2O4 ⇄ 2NO2,NO,and O2

Benedict-Webb-Rubin equation of state constants for NO, O2, and the equilibrium mixture N2O4 ⇄ 2NO2 are reported.

A generalized equation for diffusion in liquids

The association parameter in the diffuswn equaiior, dye fo Wiike one Chong has been interpreted in deferminable properties, thus permitting easily the calculation of the same for unknown systems. The proposed eqyotion a!se holds goods for water as soiute in organic solvenfs. The over-all percentage error remains the sarrse as that of the original equation.

Extended self-similarity works for the Burgers equation and why

Extended self-similarity (ESS), a procedure that remarkably extends the range of scaling for structure functions in Navier-Stokes turbulence and thus allows improved determination of intermittency exponents, has never been fully explained. We show that ESS applies to Burgers turbulence at high Reynolds numbers and we give the theoretical explanation of the numerically observed improved scaling at both the IR and UV end, in total a gain of about three quarters of a decade: there is a reduction of subdominant contributions to scaling when going from the standard structure function representation to the ESS representation. We conjecture that a similar situation holds for three-dimensional incompressible turbulence and suggest ways of capturing subdominant contributions to scaling.

A nonlinear theory of wake development

A simple new series, using an expansion of the velocity profile in parabolic cylinder functions, has been developed to describe the nonlinear evolution of a steady, laminar, incompressible wake from a given arbitrary initial profile. The first term in this series is itself found to provide a very satisfactory prediction of the decay of the maximum velocity defect in the wake behind a flat plate or aft of the recirculation zone behind a symmetric blunt body. A detailed analysis, including higher order terms, has been made of the flat plate wake with a Blasius profile at the trailing edge. The same method yields, as a special case, complete results for the development of linearized wakes with arbitrary initial profile under the influence of arbitrary pressure gradients. Finally, for purposes of comparison, a simple approximate solution is obtained using momentum integral methods, and found to predict satisfactorily the decay of the maximum velocity defect. © 1970 Wolters-Noordhoff Publishing.

Electron energy equation for an atomic radiating plasma

The electron-energy equation for an atomic radiating plasma is considered in this work. Using the atomic model of Bates, Kingston and McWhirter, the radiation loss-term valid for all optical thicknesses is obtained. A study of the energy gained by electrons in inelastic collisions shows that the radiation loss term can be neglected only for rapidly-decaying or fast-growing plasmas. Emission from optically thin plasmas is considered next and an exact expression is given for the total radiation loss in a recombination continuum. A derivation of the Kramers-Unsöld approximation is presented and the error involved in estimating the total emitted recombination radiation by this approximation is shown to be small.

Application of D transforms in the analysis of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

The scope of application of Laplace transforms presently limited to the study of linear partial differential equations, is extended to the nonlinear domain by this study. This has been achieved by modifying the definition of D transforms, put forth recently for the study of classes of nonlinear lumped parameter systems. The appropriate properties of the new D transforms are presented to bring out their applicability in the analysis of nonlinear distributed parameter systems.

L2-Stability Of A Class Of Nonlinear-Systems

Sufficient conditions are given for the L2-stability of a class of feedback systems consisting of a linear operator G and a nonlinear gain function, either odd monotone or restricted by a power-law, in cascade, in a negative feedback loop. The criterion takes the form of a frequency-domain inequality, Re[1 + Z(jω)] G(jω) δ > 0 ω ε (−∞, +∞), where Z(jω) is given by, Z(jω) = β[Y1(jω) + Y2(jω)] + (1 − β)[Y3(jω) − Y3(−jω)], with 0 β 1 and the functions y1(·), y2(·) and y3(·) satisfying the time-domain inequalities, ∝−∞+∞¦y1(t) + y2(t)¦ dt 1 − ε, y1(·) = 0, t < 0, y2(·) = 0, t > 0 and ε > 0, and , c2 being a constant depending on the order of the power-law restricting the nonlinear function. The criterion is derived using Zames' passive operator theory and is shown to be more general than the existing criteria