Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

A structuralist Philips curve

This paper presents a structuralist model of the Philips curve and applies it to the US and Brazilian economies. The theoretical model starts from a simple markup rule to build a Philips curve based on the assumptions that firms have a desired rate of profit and wokers have a target real wage. Inflation expectations are modeled in terms of current inflation and the governments’ target, and the model shows that relative prices can have both a short-run and long-run influence on inflation. When applied to the US, the structuralist Philips curve results in a nonlinear model in which there are two steady states for inflation, and where the wageshare of income becomes the main instrument to drive inflation to the governments’ target. When applied to Brazil, the structuralist Philips curve reveals a nonlinear relationship between long-run inflation and the real exchange rate, so that the same inflation target can be consistent with more than one value of the exchange rate. The main conclusion of the paper is that a structuralist specification of the Philips curve is a useful instrument to model many macroeconomic topics as well as alternative theoretical closures.

The economics of wage-led recovery: analysis and policy recommendations

The financial crisis and Great Recession have been followed by a jobs shortage crisis that most forecasts predict will persist for years given current policies. This paper argues for a wage-led recovery and growth program which is the only way to remedy the deep causes of the crisis and escape the jobs crisis. Such a program is the polar opposite of the current policy orthodoxy, showing how much is at stake. Winning the argument for wage-led recovery will require winning the war of ideas about economics that has its roots going back to Keynes’ challenge of classical macroeconomics in the 1920s and 1930s. That will involve showing how the financial crisis and Great Recession were the ultimate result of three decades of neoliberal policy, which produced wage stagnation by severing the wage productivity growth link and made asset price inflation and debt the engine of demand growth in place of wages; showing how wage-led policy resolves the current problem of global demand shortage without pricing out labor; and developing a detailed set of policy proposals that flow from these understandings. The essence of a wage-led policy approach is to rebuild the link between wages and productivity growth, combined with expansionary macroeconomic policy that fills the current demand shortfall so as to push the economy on to a recovery path. Both sets of measures are necessary. Expansionary macro policy (i.e. fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy) without rebuilding the wage mechanism will not produce sustainable recovery and may end in fiscal crisis. Rebuilding the wage mechanism without expansionary macro policy is likely to leave the economy stuck in the orbit of stagnation.

Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency less attractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model and estimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from the dates surrounding the monetary policy committee meetings and the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. Indeed, we find that unexpected increases in interest rates tend to lead the Brazilian currency to depreciate. It follows that granting more independence to a central bank that focus solely on inflation is not always a free-lunch.

Avaliação microeconômica do comportamento de investidores frente às alterações de condições de mercado : os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros

Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos “links” com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de “market-share” na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de “share”.

Rising Publication Delays Inflate Journal Impact Factors

Journal impact factors have become an important criterion to judge the quality of scientific publications over the years, influencing the evaluation of institutions and individual researchers worldwide. However, they are also subject to a number of criticisms. Here we point out that the calculation of a journal’s impact factor is mainly based on the date of publication of its articles in print form, despite the fact that most journals now make their articles available online before that date. We analyze 61 neuroscience journals and show that delays between online and print publication of articles increased steadily over the last decade. Importantly, such a practice varies widely among journals, as some of them have no delays, while for others this period is longer than a year. Using a modified impact factor based on online rather than print publication dates, we demonstrate that online-to-print delays can artificially raise a journal’s impact factor, and that this inflation is greater for longer publication lags. We also show that correcting the effect of publication delay on impact factors changes journal rankings based on this metric. We thus suggest that indexing of articles in citation databases and calculation of citation metrics should be based on the date of an article’s online appearance, rather than on that of its publication in print.

Determinantes socioeconômicos e ambientais do declínio das hospitalizações por diarréias em lactentes no Rio Grande do Norte - 1992 a 2001

There was a significant decline in hospitalizations for acute diarrhea in children younger than 1 year of age in Brazil between 1992 to 2001. The less economically developed state of Rio Grande do Norte is a case example of the national trend. In this work, we show a significant association between improvements in socioeconomic variables as well as increased access to sanitation and the decreased rate of hospitalization. Additionally, we observed a positive, seasonal correlation between rainfall and hospitalizations. Most notably, however, we show that improvements in income and inflation were positively correlated with a decline in hospitalizations. Improvements in public health infrastructure, socioeconomic variables like education and literacy, and increased investment in health services were important in reducing severe early childhood diarrheas. However, the data suggests that increased buying power and reductions in poverty played an equally crucial role in reducing hospitalizations for acute diarrhea in infants in Brazil. The work includes elements of the demography of the period for the age groups involved, children under one year, women in fertile age and fertility rate

Desempenho do trator agrícola no manejo da cultura de cobertura e pressão de inflação do pneu da semeadora

O adequado manejo de culturas de cobertura no plantio direto tem-se mostrado excelente alternativa para melhorar as condições de semeadura. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho do trator agrícola no manejo dos restos culturais do sorgo (rolo-faca e triturador de palhas) e a pressão de inflação (525 e 385 kPa) do pneu da semeadora-adubadora, no estabelecimento da cultura do milho em plantio direto. O experimento foi conduzido na UNESP - Jaboticabal, em delineamento de blocos ao acaso, com parcela subdividida, e os tratamentos consistiram nos manejos da cultura de cobertura do solo e pressões de inflação do pneu da semeadora, com quatro repetições. Foram mensurados nas máquinas: velocidade de deslocamento, capacidade de campo, consumo de combustível e patinhagem do trator; no solo e nas plantas, foi acrescido o tratamento de manejo com herbicida: cobertura inicial, número de dias para emergência das plântulas, população inicial e final de plantas, distribuição longitudinal e produtividade de grãos. No manejo da palhada da cultura do sorgo, o rolo-faca proporcionou maior capacidade de campo e menores consumos de combustível. Os tratamentos manejos e pressão não interferiram na cobertura do solo, no número de dias para emergência do milho e na distribuição longitudinal.

Semeadora-adubadora: exigências em função do preparo do solo, da pressão de inflação do pneu e da velocidade

As semeadoras-adubadoras, responsáveis pela correta adição de semente e adubo ao solo, possuem mecanismos dosadores acionados por suas rodas motrizes, que giram em função do contato com a superfície do solo. Esse contato é influenciado, entre outros fatores, pela pressão de inflação dos pneus. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar o desempenho de uma semeadora-adubadora de precisão em função do preparo do solo (preparo convencional e plantio direto), das velocidades de deslocamento e da pressão de inflação do seu pneu. O trabalho foi realizado na UNESP de Jaboticabal (SP) no ano de 2006. Foram avaliadas as seguintes variáveis: força de tração e potência na barra, consumo de combustível (horário, ponderal, operacional e específico), capacidade de campo operacional, patinagem dos rodados do trator e da semeadora-adubadora, estande inicial e distribuição longitudinal de sementes. O sistema plantio direto demandou maior força (35 %), potência e consumo horário de combustível; o mesmo aconteceu na maior velocidade. A pressão de inflação das rodas da semeadora proporcionou menor patinagem e maior estande inicial de plântulas.

A comparison of statistical methods for genomic selection in a mice population

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of ridge regression for the prediction of early growth performance in crossbred calves

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação do contato pneu-solo em três modelos de pneus agrícolas

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of subcutaneous methadone, morphine, buprenorphine or saline on thermal and pressure thresholds in cats

This study compared pressure and thermal thresholds after administration of three opioids in eight cats. Pressure stimulation was performed via a bracelet taped around the forearm. Three ball-bearings were advanced against the forearm by inflation of a modified blood pressure bladder. Pressure in the cuff was recorded at the end point (leg shake and head turn). Thermal threshold was tested as previously reported using a heated probe held against the thorax [Dixon et al. (2002) Research in Veterinary Science, 72, 205]. After baseline recordings, each cat received subcutaneous methadone 0.2 mg/kg, morphine 0.2 mg/kg, buprenorphine 0.02 mg/kg or saline 0.3 mL in a four period cross-over study. Measurements were made at 15, 30, 45 min and 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 12 and 24 h after the injection. Data were analysed by ANOVA (P < 0.05). There were no significant changes in thresholds after saline. Thermal threshold increased at 45 min after buprenorphine (maximum 2.8 +/- 3 degrees C), 1-3 h after methadone (maximum 3.4 +/- 1.9 degrees C) and 45 min to 1 h (maximum 3.4 +/- 2 degrees C) after morphine. Pressure threshold increased 30-45 min (maximum 238 +/- 206 mmHg) after buprenorphine, 45-60 min after methadone (maximum 255 +/- 232 mmHg) and 45-60 min and 3-6 h (maximum 255 +/- 232 mmHg) after morphine. Morphine provided the best analgesia, and methadone appears a promising alternative. Buprenorphines limited effect was probably related to the subcutaneous route of administration. Previously, buprenorphine has produced much greater effects when given by other routes.

Efeitos da pressão limite (25 cmH2O) e mínima de "selo" do balonete de tubos traqueais sobre a mucosa traqueal do cão

JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: As lesões da mucosa traqueal em contato com o balonete do tubo traqueal são proporcionais à pressão exercida pelo balonete e ao tempo de exposição. O objetivo foi estudar as eventuais lesões da mucosa do segmento traqueal em contato com o balonete do tubo traqueal insuflado com volume de ar suficiente para se obter pressão de "selo" ou com a pressão limite de 25 cmH2O, abaixo da pressão crítica de 30 cm de água para produção de lesão da mucosa traqueal. MÉTODO: Dezesseis cães foram submetidos à anestesia venosa e ventilação artificial. Os cães foram distribuídos aleatoriamente em dois grupos de acordo com a pressão no balonete do tubo traqueal (Portex Blue-Line, Inglaterra): Gselo (n = 8) balonete com pressão mínima de "selo" para impedir vazamento de ar durante a respiração artificial; G25 (n = 8) balonete insuflado até obtenção da pressão de 25 cmH2O. A medida da pressão do balonete foi realizada por meio de manômetro digital no início (controle) e após 60, 120 e 180 minutos. Após o sacrifício dos cães, foram feitas biópsias nas áreas da mucosa traqueal adjacentes ao balonete e ao tubo traqueal para análise à microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV). RESULTADOS: A pressão média do balonete em G25 manteve-se entre 24,8 e 25 cmH2O e em Gselo entre 11,9 e 12,5 cmH2O durante o experimento. As alterações à MEV foram pequenas e não significantemente diferentes nos grupos (p > 0,30), mas ocorreram lesões mais intensas nas áreas de contato da mucosa traqueal com o balonete do tubo traqueal, nos dois grupos, em relação às áreas da mucosa adjacentes ou não ao tubo traqueal (p < 0,05). CONCLUSÕES: No cão, nas condições experimentais empregadas, a insuflação do balonete de tubo traqueal em volume de ar suficiente para determinar pressão limite de 25 cmH2O ou de "selo" para impedir vazamento de ar determina lesões mínimas da mucosa traqueal em contato com o balonete e sem diferença significante entre elas.