Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Patterns of alcohol consumption in young Australian women: socio-demographic factors, health-related behaviours and physical health

Objective: To determine which sociodemographic factors. health-related behaviours and physical health conditions are associated with non-drinking, binge drinking and hazardous/harmful drinking in young Australian women. Methods: Cross-sectional data were obtained from the baseline survey of 14,762 young women (aged 18-23 years) enrolled in the Women's Health Australia study in 1996. Associations between a range of drinking patterns and sociodemographic factors, health-related behaviours and health conditions were examined. Results: Half the women were 'low intake' drinkers, a third 'rarely drank' and 9% were non-drinkers; however, 70% reported binge drinking with one-quarter of the binge drinkers doing so at least weekly. Nondrinkers were more likely than drinkers to be married, pregnant, non-smokers, born in non-English speaking countries, to live in the Northern Territory, and to have lower levels of education, employment, and private health insurance. Low intake/binge weekly' drinkers (12%) and 'hazardous/ harmful' drinkers (5%) were more likely than 'low risk' drinkers to be unmarried; to live in shared accommodation, alone or with their parents; to live in rural or remote areas; to have ever had any sexually transmitted infection; to be current smokers or ex-smokers and to have used unhealthy weight-control practices. Conclusions: The results confirm findings from other countries about the importance of social conditions as determinants of alcohol consumption by young women. Implications: Health promotion to reduce young women's alcohol consumption needs to be carefully targeted to take account of their demographies, living environments and beliefs.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

Preliminary experiences with a single-patient trials service in general practice

Objective: To pilot a single-patient trials (SPTs) service in general practice, designed to improve decision-making about long-term medications for chronic conditions. Design: 12-week within-patient, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover comparison of ibuprofen with paracetamol for osteoarthritis, involving three pairs of two-week treatment periods for each participating patient. Setting and patients: Patients attending an academic general practice with a clinical diagnosis of osteoarthritis, with pain of at least a month's duration severe enough to warrant consideration of long-term non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use. Main outcome measures: Pain and stiffness; measures of overall arthritis compared with previous fortnight; preference for NSAID at the end of each two-week treatment period; use of escape analgesia; side effects; and management changes as a result of the SPTs. Results: Eight of 14 patients completed SPTs. One was a clear responder to NSAIDs, five were non-responders, and two were indefinite. Of the five who were using NSAIDs before the SPT, two continued and three ceased using them. Clinically useful information assisted decision-making for all eight participants. Medication management changed for six. Conclusions: Single-patient trials can be successfully implemented in general practice and might be a valuable method for GPs to identify patients who respond to medication for chronic stable conditions such as osteoarthritis, in which individual response to medication is variable.

Overseas visitors admitted to Queensland hospitals for water-related injuries

Objective: To determine the number of overseas visitors admitted to Queensland hospitals for water-related injuries over three years, the causes of their injuries, the resulting conditions treated, and the type of hospitals to which they were admitted. Design: Retrospective analysis of admissions of overseas visitors to Queensland hospitals over the three financial years 1995/96, 1996/97 and 1997/98. Patients: 296 overseas visitors admitted for water-related injuries, identified from hospital records by their usual place of residence. Main outcome measures: Number of admissions, causes of injuries, conditions treated. and bed days occupied by these patients at different types of hospitals (metropolitan, regional and rural public hospitals, and private hospitals). Results: The 296 overseas visitors accounted for a total of 596 separate admissions, many of these the result of patients with decompression illness being admitted several times to a regional hospital hyperbaric chamber for treatment as day patients. The largest number of injuries involved the use of diving equipment. The main conditions treated were decompression illness (54.7%), fractures and dislocations (15.5%), and drowning and non-fatal submersion (14.9%). Overall, overseas visitors admitted to hospital following a water-related incident occupied 1215 bed days; 90% of these admissions were to regional hospitals. Conclusions: The main reason for admission of overseas visitors is for decompression illness, suggesting that the prevention of injuries among scuba divers requires further coordinated efforts by health and tourism authorities.

Mesoionic pyridopyrimidinylium and pyridooxazinylium olates and non-mesoionic pyridopyrimidinones. Structures in the solid state, solution, and matrices

X-Ray crystal structures, C-13 NMR spectra and theoretical calculations (B3LYP/6-31G*) are reported for the mesoionic (zwitterionic) pyridopyrimidinylium- and pyridooxazinyliumolates 2a, 3a and 5a,b as well as the enol ether 11b and the enamine 11c. The 1-NH compounds like 1a, 2a and 3a exist in the mesoionic form in the crystal and in solution, but the OH tautomers such as 1b and 2b dominate in the gas phase as revealed by the Ar matrix IR spectra in conjunction with DFT calculations. All data indicate that the mesoionic compounds can be regarded as intramolecular pyridine-ketene zwitterions (cf. 16 --> 17) with a high degree of positive charge on the pyridinium nitrogen, a long pyridinium N-CO bond (ca. 1.44-1.49 Angstrom), and normal C=O double bonds (ca. 1.22 Angstrom). All mesoionic compounds exhibit a pronounced tilting of the olate C=O groups (the C=O groups formally derived from a ketene) towards the pyridinium nitrogen, giving NCO angles of 110-118 degrees. Calculations reveal a hydrogen bond with 6-CH, analogous to what is found in ketene-pyridine zwitterions and the C3O2-pyridine complex. The 2-OH tautomers of type 1b, 2b, and 11 also show a high degree of zwitterionic character as indicated by the canonical structures 11 12.

Kinematic and non-linear analysis of foldable barrel vaults

Kinematic analysis is conducted to derive the geometric constraints for the geometric design of foldable barrel vaults (FBV) composed of polar or angulated scissor units. Non-linear structural analysis is followed to determine the structural response of FBVs in the fully deployed configuration under static loading. Two load cases are considered: cross wind and longitudinal wind. The effect of varying member sizes, depth-to-span ratio and geometric imperfections is examined. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Youth suicide trends in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, 1988-1997

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine trends in suicide among 15-34-year-olds living in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas between 1988 and 1997. Method: Suicide and population data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We calculated overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-24 and 25-34-year-old males and females separately, according to area of residence defined as non-metropolitan (less than or equal to 20 000 people) or metropolitan. Results: Between 1988 and 1997 suicide rates in 15-24-year-old non-metropolitan males were consistently 50% higher than metropolitan 15-24-year-olds. In 1995-1997, for example, the rates were: 38.2 versus 25.1 per 100 000 respectively (p < 0.0001). The reverse pattern was seen in 25-34-year-old females with higher rates in metropolitan areas (7.5 per 100 000) compared with non-metropolitan areas (6.1 per 100 000, p = 0.21) in 1995-1997. There were no significant differences according to area of residence in 25-34-year-old males or 15-24-year-old females. Over the years studied we found no clear evidence that suicide rates increased to a greater extent in rural than urban areas. Rates of hanging suicide have approximately doubled in both sexes and age groups in both settings over this time. Despite an approximate halving in firearm suicide, rates remain 3-fold higher among non-metropolitan residents. Conclusion: Non-metropolitan males aged 15-24 years have disproportionately higher rates of suicide than their metropolitan counterparts. Reasons for this require further investigation. Hanging is now the most favoured method of non-metropolitan suicide replacing firearms from 10 years ago. Although legislation may reduce method-specific suicide the potential for method-substitution means that overall rates may not fall. More comprehensive interventions are therefore required.

Multiple conformational epitopes are recognized by natural and induced immunity to the E7 protein of human papilloma virus type 16 in man

The reactivity of sera from patients with cervical cancer with the E7 protein of human papilloma virus type 16 (HPV16) was estimated using a novel non-radioactive immunoprecipitation assay and four established protein-and peptide-based immunoassays. Six of 14 sera from patients with cervical cancer and 1 of 10 sera from healthy laboratory staff showed repeated reactivity with E7 in at least one assay. Four of the 7 reactive sera were consistently reactive in more than one assay, but only one was reactive in all four assays. Following immunization with E7, 2 of 5 patients with cervical cancer had increased E7-specific reactivity, measurable in one or more assays. No single assay was particularly sensitive for E7 reactivity, or predictive of cervical cancer. Mapping of E7 reactivity to specific E7 peptides was unsuccessful, suggesting that natural or induced E7 reactivity in human serum is commonly directed to conformational epitopes of E7, These results suggest that each assay employed with is study measures a different aspect of E7 reactivity, and that various reactivities to E7 may manifest following HPV infection or immunization. This finding is of significance for monitoring of E7 immunotherapy and for serological screening for cervical cancer. Copyright (C) 2000 S.Karger, AG. Basel.

Book Review of: Supervising postgraduates from non-English speaking backgrounds

No abstract

A randomized trial of a problem-based learning approach for teaching epidemiology

Purpose. To conduct a controlled trial of traditional and problem-based learning (PBL) methods of teaching epidemiology. Method. All second-year medical students (n = 136) at The University of Western Australia Medical School were offered the chance to participate in a randomized controlled trial of teaching methods fur an epidemiology course. Students who consented to participate (n = 80) were randomly assigned to either a PBL or a traditional course. Students who did not consent or did not return the consent form (n = 56) were assigned to the traditional course, Students in both streams took identical quizzes and exams. These scores, a collection of semi-quantitative feedback from all students, and a qualitative analysis of interviews with a convenience sample of six students from each stream were compared. Results. There was no significant difference in performances on quizzes or exams between PBL and traditional students. Students using PBL reported a stronger grasp of epidemiologic principles, enjoyed working with a group, and, at the end of the course, were more enthusiastic about epidemiology and its professional relevance to them than were students in the traditional course. PBL students worked more steadily during the semester but spent only marginally more time on the epidemiology course overall. Interviews corroborated these findings. Non-consenting students were older (p < 0.02) and more likely to come from non-English-speaking backgrounds (p < 0.005). Conclusions. PBL provides an academically equivalent but personally far richer learning experience. The adoption of PBL approaches to medical education makes it important to study whether PBL presents particular challenges for students whose first language is not the language of instruction.

Reducing the harms caused by cannabis use: the policy debate in Australia

The debate about cannabis policy in Australia has revolved around the harms that cannabis causes to users and the community, on the one hand, and the harms that are caused by the prohibition of its use, on the other. This paper assesses evidence on: (1) the harms caused to users and the community by cannabis use (derived from the international scientific literature) and (2) the harms that arise from prohibition (as reflected in Australian research). The most probable harms caused by cannabis use include: an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents; respiratory disease; dependence; adverse effects on adolescent development; and the exacerbation of psychosis. The harms of the current prohibition on cannabis use policy are less tangible but probably include: the creation of a large blackmarket; disrespect for a widely broken law; harms to the reputation of the unlucky few cannabis users who are caught and prosecuted; lack of access to cannabis for medical uses; and an inefficient use of law enforcement resources. Cannabis policy unavoidably involves trade offs between competing values that should be made by the political process. Australian cannabis policy has converged on a solution which continues to prohibit cannabis but reduces the severity of penalties for cannabis use by either removing criminal penalties or diverting first time cannabis offenders into treatment and education. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.