The network origins of aggregate fluctuations

This paper argues that in the presence of intersectoral input-output linkages, microeconomicidiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. In particular, itshows that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregatevolatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages.Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importanceof different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers as well as theirrole as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher-order interconnectionscapture the possibility of "cascade effects" whereby productivity shocks to asector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also indirectlyto the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility isobtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetryin the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the "sparseness" of theinput-output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.

A new compact linear programming formulation for choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management model incorporates customer purchase behavioras a function of the offered products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel networkrevenue management, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization.The optimization problem is a stochastic dynamic program and is intractable. A certainty-equivalencerelaxation of the dynamic program, called the choice deterministic linear program(CDLP) is usually used to generate dyamic controls. Recently, a compact linear programmingformulation of this linear program was given for the multi-segment multinomial-logit (MNL)model of customer choice with non-overlapping consideration sets. Our objective is to obtaina tighter bound than this formulation while retaining the appealing properties of a compactlinear programming representation. To this end, it is natural to consider the affine relaxationof the dynamic program. We first show that the affine relaxation is NP-complete even for asingle-segment MNL model. Nevertheless, by analyzing the affine relaxation we derive a newcompact linear program that approximates the dynamic programming value function betterthan CDLP, provably between the CDLP value and the affine relaxation, and often comingclose to the latter in our numerical experiments. When the segment consideration sets overlap,we show that some strong equalities called product cuts developed for the CDLP remain validfor our new formulation. Finally we perform extensive numerical comparisons on the variousbounds to evaluate their performance.

Endogenous spillovers, increased competition and re-organization waves

We consider an entrepreneur that is the sole producer of a costreducing skill, but the entrepreneur that hires a team to usethe skill cannot prevent collusive trade for the innovation related knowledge between employees and competitors. We showthat there are two types of diffusion avoiding strategies forthe entrepreneur to preempt collusive communication i) settingup a large productive capacity (the traditional firm) and ii)keeping a small team (the lean firm). The traditional firm ischaracterized by its many "marginal" employees that work shortdays, receive flat wages and are incompletely informed about the innovation. The lean firm is small in number of employees,engages in complete information sharing among members, that are paid with stock option schemes. We find that the lean firm is superior to the traditional firm when technological entry costsare low and when the sector is immature.

The male of Mischocyttarus nomurae Richards, with a re-examination of the limits and contents of the M. cerberus species group (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae, Mischocyttarini)

The male of Mischocyttarus nomurae Richards, 1978 is described for the first time, and relationships between this and other similar species are discussed in a context of redefining the limits of the M. cerberus species group.

Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade

This paper analyzes the flow of intermediate inputs across sectors by adopting a network perspective on sectoral interactions. I apply these tools to show how fluctuationsin aggregate economic activity can be obtained from independent shocks to individualsectors. First, I characterize the network structure of input trade in the U.S. On thedemand side, a typical sector relies on a small number of key inputs and sectors arehomogeneous in this respect. However, in their role as input-suppliers sectors do differ:many specialized input suppliers coexist alongside general purpose sectors functioningas hubs to the economy. I then develop a model of intersectoral linkages that can reproduce these connectivity features. In a standard multisector setup, I use this modelto provide analytical expressions linking aggregate volatility to the network structureof input trade. I show that the presence of sectoral hubs - by coupling productiondecisions across sectors - leads to fluctuations in aggregates.

Análise da (re) Configuração do Espaço Geográfico Estudo de Caso: Bairro de Lém-Cachorro – Cidade da Praia – Ilha de Santiago – Cabo Verde

Espaço geográfico é o objecto de estudo da Geografia. Ele é um conjunto constituído por objectos naturais - gerados pela natureza, objectos artificiais - produzidos pelo homem e pelas acções humanas impregnadas de objectivos e finalidades. Os objectos e as acções encontram-se interligados e, é dessa forma que orientam a reorganização espacial. Por isso, não são analisados de forma isolada pela Geografia: só os objectos ou só as acções. Considera-se que o perfil da sociedade encontra-se em constante alteração, como por exemplo, um modelo social de produção e consumo antes tido como padrão vem sendo substituído por modelos mais modernos com elevado grau de exigência e satisfação. Essa condição de modernidade é dada pelo contínuo desenvolvimento do meio científico e tecnológico. Assim, essa mudança no perfil de produção e de consumo permite ao ser humano desfrutar de práticas e conhecimentos antes considerados impossíveis. Por outro lado é importante observar que estas mudanças ocorrem e repercutem no espaço sob forma de elementos artificiais com ampla capacidade de comportar funções. Tal fato atribui novas configurações dentro do espaço urbano. Nessa perspectiva procura-se com este trabalho analisar a reconfiguração do espaço geográfico do bairro de Lém-Cachorro – cidade da Praia – Cabo Verde, contemplando o princípio da Geografia crítica, de não neutralidade dos aspectos políticos, sociais e económicos no estudo da realidade geográfica. Pois o engajamento de todos esses aspectos evitará contradições e enganos, além de favorecer uma leitura com elevado grau de aproximação da realidade do bairro de Lém-Cachorro. Espaço geográfico é o objecto de estudo da Geografia. Ele é um conjunto constituído por objectos naturais - gerados pela natureza, objectos artificiais - produzidos pelo homem e pelas acções humanas impregnadas de objectivos e finalidades. Os objectos e as acções encontram-se interligados e, é dessa forma que orientam a reorganização espacial. Por isso, não são analisados de forma isolada pela Geografia: só os objectos ou só as acções. Considera-se que o perfil da sociedade encontra-se em constante alteração, como por exemplo, um modelo social de produção e consumo antes tido como padrão vem sendo substituído por modelos mais modernos com elevado grau de exigência e satisfação. Essa condição de modernidade é dada pelo contínuo desenvolvimento do meio científico e tecnológico. Assim, essa mudança no perfil de produção e de consumo permite ao ser humano desfrutar de práticas e conhecimentos antes considerados impossíveis. Por outro lado é importante observar que estas mudanças ocorrem e repercutem no espaço sob forma de elementos artificiais com ampla capacidade de comportar funções. Tal fato atribui novas configurações dentro do espaço urbano. Nessa perspectiva procura-se com este trabalho analisar a reconfiguração do espaço geográfico do bairro de Lém-Cachorro – cidade da Praia – Cabo Verde, contemplando o princípio da Geografia crítica, de não neutralidade dos aspectos políticos, sociais e económicos no estudo da realidade geográfica. Pois o engajamento de todos esses aspectos evitará contradições e enganos, além de favorecer uma leitura com elevado grau de aproximação da realidade do bairro de Lém-Cachorro.Espaço geográfico é o objecto de estudo da Geografia. Ele é um conjunto constituído por objectos naturais - gerados pela natureza, objectos artificiais - produzidos pelo homem e pelas acções humanas impregnadas de objectivos e finalidades. Os objectos e as acções encontram-se interligados e, é dessa forma que orientam a reorganização espacial. Por isso, não são analisados de forma isolada pela Geografia: só os objectos ou só as acções. Considera-se que o perfil da sociedade encontra-se em constante alteração, como por exemplo, um modelo social de produção e consumo antes tido como padrão vem sendo substituído por modelos mais modernos com elevado grau de exigência e satisfação. Essa condição de modernidade é dada pelo contínuo desenvolvimento do meio científico e tecnológico. Assim, essa mudança no perfil de produção e de consumo permite ao ser humano desfrutar de práticas e conhecimentos antes considerados impossíveis. Por outro lado é importante observar que estas mudanças ocorrem e repercutem no espaço sob forma de elementos artificiais com ampla capacidade de comportar funções. Tal fato atribui novas configurações dentro do espaço urbano. Nessa perspectiva procura-se com este trabalho analisar a reconfiguração do espaço geográfico do bairro de Lém-Cachorro – cidade da Praia – Cabo Verde, contemplando o princípio da Geografia crítica, de não neutralidade dos aspectos políticos, sociais e económicos no estudo da realidade geográfica. Pois o engajamento de todos esses aspectos evitará contradições e enganos, além de favorecer uma leitura com elevado grau de aproximação da realidade do bairro de Lém-Cachorro. Assim, assume-se como metodologia o estudo de caso dentro de uma abordagem dedutiva. Optou-se por essa metodologia por permitir um elevado grau de detalhamento das condições geográficas do bairro e a construção de cadeias de raciocínio que conduzem a conclusões específicas. Com essa metodologia, tem-se a garantia do alcance do objectivo geral da pesquisa que é analisar a reconfiguração geográfica de Lém-Cachorro, bem como dos objectivos específicos que são: caracterizar a área de estudo, aplicar os conceitos relativos a espaço geográfico e analisar a reconfiguração da paisagem geográfica do bairro.

Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

IκB-ζ controls the constitutive NF-κB target gene network and survival of ABC DLBCL.

Constitutive activation of the nuclear factor-κ B (NF-κB) pathway is a hallmark of the activated B-cell-like (ABC) subtype of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Recurrent mutations of NF-κB regulators that cause constitutive activity of this oncogenic pathway have been identified. However, it remains unclear how specific target genes are regulated. We identified the atypical nuclear IκB protein IκB-ζ to be upregulated in ABC compared with germinal center B-cell-like (GCB) DLBCL primary patient samples. Knockdown of IκB-ζ by RNA interference was toxic to ABC but not to GCB DLBCL cell lines. Gene expression profiling after IκB-ζ knockdown demonstrated a significant downregulation of a large number of known NF-κB target genes, indicating an essential role of IκB-ζ in regulating a specific set of NF-κB target genes. To further investigate how IκB-ζ mediates NF-κB activity, we performed immunoprecipitations and detected a physical interaction of IκB-ζ with both p50 and p52 NF-κB subunits, indicating that IκB-ζ interacts with components of both the canonical and the noncanonical NF-κB pathway in ABC DLBCL. Collectively, our data demonstrate that IκB-ζ is essential for nuclear NF-κB activity in ABC DLBCL, and thus might represent a promising molecular target for future therapies.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, International Lottery Schemes: You're the Loser!, April 2004

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: International Lottery Schemes: You're the Loser!

Early Stage Primary Bone Lymphoma: A Retrospective, Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study

Purpose/Objective(s): Primary bone lymphoma (PBL) represents less than 1% of all malignant lymphomas, and 4-5% of all extranodal lymphomas. In this study, we assessed the disease profile, outcome, and prognostic factors in patients with stage I and II PBL.Materials/Methods: Between 1987 and 2008, 116 consecutive patients with PBL treated in 13 RCNinstitutions were included in this study. Inclusion criteriawere: age.17 yrs, PBLin stage I and II, andminimum6months follow-up. The median agewas 51 yrs (range: 17-93).Diagnosticwork-up included plain boneXray (74%of patients), scintigraphy (62%), CT-scan (65%),MRI (58%), PET (18%), and bone-marrow biopsy (84%).All patients had biopsy-proven confirmation of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). The histopathological type was predominantly diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (78%) and follicular lymphoma (6%), according to theWHOclassification. One hundred patients had a high-grade, 7 intermediate and 9 low-gradeNHL. Ninety-three patients had anAnn-Arbor stage I, and 23 had a stage II. Seventy-seven patients underwent chemoradiotherapy (CXRT), 12 radiotherapy (RT) alone, 10 chemotherapy alone (CXT), 9 surgery followed by CXRT, 5 surgery followed by CXT, and 2 surgery followed by RT. One patient died before treatment.Median RT dosewas 40Gy (range: 4-60).Themedian number ofCXTcycleswas 6 (range, : 2-8).Median follow-upwas 41months (range: 6-242).Results: Following treatment, the overall response rate was 91% (CR 74%, PR 17%). Local recurrence was observed in 12 (10%) patients, and systemic recurrence in 17 (15%) patients. Causes of death included disease progression in 16, unrelated disease in 6, CXT-related toxicity in 1, and secondary cancer in 2 patients. The 5-yr overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), lymphoma- specific survival (LSS), and local control (LC) were 76%, 69%, 78%, and 92%, respectively. In univariate analyses (log-rank test), favorable prognostic factors for survival were: age\50 years (p = 0.008), IPI score #1 (p = 0.009), complete response (p\0.001), CXT (p = 0.008), number of CXT cycles $6 (p = 0.007), and RT dose . 40 Gy (p = 0.005). In multivariate analysis age, RT dose, complete response, and absence of B symptoms were independent factors influencing the outcome. There were 3 patients developing grade 3 or more (CTCAE.V3.0) toxicities.Conclusions: This large multicenter study, confirms the relatively good prognosis of early stage PBL, treated with combined CXRT. Local control was excellent, and systemic failure occurred infrequently. A sufficient dose of RT (. 40 Gy) and completeCXT regime (. 6 cycles) were associated with a better outcome. Combined modality appears to be the treatment of choice.Author Disclosure: L. Cai, None; M.C. Stauder, None; Y.J. Zhang, None; P. Poortmans, None; Y.X. Li, None; N. Constantinou, None; J. Thariat, None; S. Kadish, None; M. Ozsahin, None; R.O. Mirimanoff, None.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, International Lottery Schemes: You're the Loser!, April 2004

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: International Lottery Schemes: You're the Loser!

An analysis of the accounting principles applied by the European Farm Accountancy Data Network

In spite of its relative importance in the economy of many countriesand its growing interrelationships with other sectors, agriculture has traditionally been excluded from accounting standards. Nevertheless, to support its Common Agricultural Policy, for years the European Commission has been making an effort to obtain standardized information on the financial performance and condition of farms. Through the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), every year data are gathered from a rotating sample of 60.000 professional farms across all member states. FADN data collection is not structured as an accounting cycle but as an extensive questionnaire. This questionnaire refers to assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses, and seems to try to obtain a "true and fair view" of the financial performance and condition of the farms it surveys. However, the definitions used in the questionnaire and the way data is aggregated often appear flawed from an accounting perspective. The objective of this paper is to contrast the accounting principles implicit in the FADN questionnaire with generally accepted accounting principles, particularly those found in the IVth Directive of the European Union, on the one hand, and those recently proposed by the International Accounting Standards Committee’s Steering Committeeon Agriculture in its Draft Statement of Principles, on the other hand. There are two reasons why this is useful. First, it allows to make suggestions how the information provided by FADN could be more in accordance with the accepted accounting framework, and become a more valuable tool for policy makers, farmers, and other stakeholders. Second, it helps assessing the suitability of FADN to become the starting point for a European accounting standard on agriculture.