Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

Clustering barotrauma patients in ICU–A data mining based approach using ventilator variables

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 9273

Benchmarking sobre técnicas de otimização para modelos de apoio à decisão na medicina intensiva

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Polymicrobial interactions in infections: the case Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Candida albicans in ventilator-associated pneumonia

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Engenharia Clinica)

Pervasive patient timeline

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Controlo e prevenção da infeção associada aos cuidados de saúde numa unidade de cuidados intensivos

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Enfermagem da Pessoa em Situação Crítica

A morte em cuidados intensivos: uma reflexão fenomenológica sobre a experiência dos enfermeiros

Dissertação de mestrado em Enfermagem da Pessoa em Situação Crítica

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation: update, controversies and new advances

Cardiopulmonary arrest is a medical emergency in which the lapse of time between event onset and the initiation of measures of basic and advanced support, as well as the correct care based on specific protocols for each clinical situation, constitute decisive factors for a successful therapy. Cardiopulmonary arrest care cannot be restricted to the hospital setting because of its fulminant nature. This necessitates the creation of new concepts, strategies and structures, such as the concept of life chain, cardio-pulmonary resuscitation courses for professionals who work in emergency medical services, the automated external defibrillator, the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, and mobile intensive care units, among others. New concepts, strategies and structures motivated by new advances have also modified the treatment and improved the results of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the hospital setting. Among them, we can cite the concept of cerebral resuscitation, the application of the life chain, the creation of the universal life support algorithm, the adjustment of drug doses, new techniques - measure of the end-tidal carbon dioxide levels and of the coronary perfusion pressure - and new drugs under research.

The bussola study. Final results, conclusions and proposals

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use of thrombolytic and acetylsalicylic acid therapies in acute myocardial infarct patients as well as the availability of technical and human resources for the care of these patients in the emergency units of the city of Rio de Janeiro. Additional objectives were the evaluation of the use of primary angioplasty and the level of acceptance of SBC /RJ as an entity responsible for programs of continued medical education. METHODS: Interviews with physicians at 46 emergency units in the city of Rio de Janeiro. RESULTS: Of the 46 emergency units inspected, a policy of encouragement to use thrombolytic therapy was only prescribed in 6.5%. In 1/3 of the public wards no thrombolytic agents were available, and in none of them was access to primary angioplasty regularly available; 45.9% did not offer the minimal conditions required for the handling of cases of acute myocardial infarction; 60% of the physicians on-call (at both public and private emergency units), appeared not to know the importance of the use of acetylsalicylic acid in acute myocardial infarct patients; all physicians interviewed would participate in programs of continued medical education organized by the SBC/RJ. CONCLUSION: The study suggests there was: 1) the low probability of the use of thrombolytic therapy in the majority of the emergency units in of the city of Rio de Janeiro due to the inadequate policy of waiting for the transfer of the patient to coronary or intensive care unit; 2) a low awareness to the importance of early use of acetylsalic acid in acute myocardial infarct; 3) half of the emergency units of the public net do not have the minimal conditions required for the handling of cases of acute myocardial infarction; 4) a high level of credibility exists that would enable the SBC/RJ to set up programs for continued medical education to change the mentality regarding the use of thrombolytic therapy and of acetylsalicylic acid.

Prognostic factors of the results of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in a cardiology hospital

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the early and late results of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in a cardiology hospital and to try to detect prognostic determinants of both short- and long-term survival. METHODS: A series of 557 patients who suffered cardiorespiratory arrest (CRA) at the Dante Pazzanese Cardiology Institute over a period of 5 years was analyzed to examine factors predicting successful resuscitation and long-term survival. RESULTS: Ressuscitation maneuvers were tried in 536 patients; 281 patients (52.4%) died immediately, and 164 patients (30.6%) survived for than 24 hours. The 87 patients who survived for more than 1 month after CRA were compared with nonsurvivors. Coronary disease, cardiomyopathy, and valvular disease had a better prognosis. Primary arrhythmia occurred in 73.5% of the >1-month survivor group and heart failure occurred in 12.6% of this group. In those patients in whom the initial mechanism of CRA was ventricular fibrillation, 33.3% survived for more than 1 month, but of those with ventricular asystole only 4.3% survived. None of the 10 patients with electromechanical dissociation survived. There was worse prognosis in patients included in the extreme age groups (zero to 10 years and 70 years or more). The best results occurred when the cardiac arrest took place in the catheterization laboratories. The worst results occurred in the intensive care unit and the hemodialysis room. CONCLUSION: The results in our series may serve as a helpful guide to physicians with the difficult task of deciding when not to resuscitate or when to stop resuscitation efforts.

Mini-sternotomy for the treatment of aortic valve lesions

OBJECTIVE: To compare inverted-L mini-sternotomy performed above the sternal furcula with conventional sternotomy in patients with aortic valve diseases who undergo surgical treatment. METHODS: We operated upon 30 patients who had aortic valve lesions that had clinical and hemodynamic findings. All patients underwent inverted-L sternotomy, which extended from above the manubrium of the sternum to the 3rd right intercostal space, without opening the pleural cavity. Their ages ranged from 32 to 76 years, and 18 were males and 12 were females. We used negative pressure in a venous ¼-inch cannula, and the patients were maintained in Trendelemburg's position. Twenty-seven patients received bioprostheses with diameters ranging from 23 to 29mm. Three patients underwent only removal of the calcifications of the aortic valve leaflets and aortic commissurotomy. RESULTS: The mean duration of anoxic cardiac arrest was 63.11min. Access was considered good in all patients. One death was due to pulmonary and renal problems not related to the incision. All patients had a better recovery in the intensive care unit, got out of bed sooner, coughed more easily, and performed prophylactic physiotherapeutic maneuvers for respiratory problems more easily and with less pain in the incision. Early ambulation was more easily carried out by all patients. CONCLUSION: Mini-sternotomy proved to be better than the conventional sternotomy because it provided morecomfort for the patients in the early postoperative period, with less pain and greater desire for early ambulation and all its inherent advantages.

Assessment of splanchnic perfusion with gastric tonometry in the immediate postoperative period of cardiac surgery in children

OBJECTIVE - A prospective, nonrandomized clinical study to assess splanchnic perfusion based on intramucosal pH in the postoperative period of cardiac surgery and to check the evolution of patients during hospitalization. METHODS - We studied 10 children, during the immediate postoperative period after elective cardiac surgery. Sequential intramucosal pH measurements were taken, without dobutamine (T0) and with 5mcg/kg/min (T1) and 10 (T2) mcg/kg/min. In the pediatric intensive care unit, intramucosal pH measurements were made on admission and 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours thereafter. RESULTS - The patients had an increase in intramucosal pH values with dobutamine 10mcg/kg/min [7.19± 0.09 (T0), 7.16±0.13(T1), and 7.32±0.16(T2)], (p=0.103). During the hospitalization period, the intramucosal pH values were the following: 7.20±0.13 (upon admission), 7.27±0.16 (after 4 hours), 7.26±0.07 (after 8 hours), 7.32±0.12 (after 12 hours), and 7.38±0.08 (after 24 hours), (p=0.045). No deaths occurred, and none of the patients developed multiple organ and systems dysfunction. CONCLUSION - An increase in and normalization of intramucosal pH was observed after dobutamine use. Measurement of intramucosal pH is a type of monitoring that is easy to perform and free of complications in children during the postoperative period of cardiac surgery.

Critical events in mechanically ventilated patients

Mechanical Ventilation is an artificial way to help a Patient to breathe. This procedure is used to support patients with respiratory diseases however in many cases it can provoke lung damages, Acute Respiratory Diseases or organ failure. With the goal to early detect possible patient breath problems a set of limit values was defined to some variables monitored by the ventilator (Average Ventilation Pressure, Compliance Dynamic, Flow, Peak, Plateau and Support Pressure, Positive end-expiratory pressure, Respiratory Rate) in order to create critical events. A critical event is verified when a patient has a value higher or lower than the normal range defined for a certain period of time. The values were defined after elaborate a literature review and meeting with physicians specialized in the area. This work uses data streaming and intelligent agents to process the values collected in real-time and classify them as critical or not. Real data provided by an Intensive Care Unit were used to design and test the solution. In this study it was possible to understand the importance of introduce critical events for Mechanically Ventilated Patients. In some cases a value is considered critical (can trigger an alarm) however it is a single event (instantaneous) and it has not a clinical significance for the patient. The introduction of critical events which crosses a range of values and a pre-defined duration contributes to improve the decision-making process by decreasing the number of false positives and having a better comprehension of the patient condition.

Pervasive adaptive data acquisition gateway for critical healthcare

The data acquisition process in real-time is fundamental to provide appropriate services and improve health professionals decision. In this paper a pervasive adaptive data acquisition architecture of medical devices (e.g. vital signs, ventilators and sensors) is presented. The architecture was deployed in a real context in an Intensive Care Unit. It is providing clinical data in real-time to the INTCare system. The gateway is composed by several agents able to collect a set of patients’ variables (vital signs, ventilation) across the network. The paper shows as example the ventilation acquisition process. The clients are installed in a machine near the patient bed. Then they are connected to the ventilators and the data monitored is sent to a multithreading server which using Health Level Seven protocols records the data in the database. The agents associated to gateway are able to collect, analyse, interpret and store the data in the repository. This gateway is composed by a fault tolerant system that ensures a data store in the database even if the agents are disconnected. The gateway is pervasive, universal, and interoperable and it is able to adapt to any service using streaming data.

Real-Time models to predict the use of vasopressors in monitored patients

The needs of reducing human error has been growing in every field of study, and medicine is one of those. Through the implementation of technologies is possible to help in the decision making process of clinics, therefore to reduce the difficulties that are typically faced. This study focuses on easing some of those difficulties by presenting real-time data mining models capable of predicting if a monitored patient, typically admitted in intensive care, will need to take vasopressors. Data Mining models were induced using clinical variables such as vital signs, laboratory analysis, among others. The best model presented a sensitivity of 94.94%. With this model it is possible reducing the misuse of vasopressors acting as prevention. At same time it is offered a better care to patients by anticipating their treatment with vasopressors.