Incremental filter and wrapper approaches for feature discretization

Discrete data representations are necessary, or at least convenient, in many machine learning problems. While feature selection (FS) techniques aim at finding relevant subsets of features, the goal of feature discretization (FD) is to find concise (quantized) data representations, adequate for the learning task at hand. In this paper, we propose two incremental methods for FD. The first method belongs to the filter family, in which the quality of the discretization is assessed by a (supervised or unsupervised) relevance criterion. The second method is a wrapper, where discretized features are assessed using a classifier. Both methods can be coupled with any static (unsupervised or supervised) discretization procedure and can be used to perform FS as pre-processing or post-processing stages. The proposed methods attain efficient representations suitable for binary and multi-class problems with different types of data, being competitive with existing methods. Moreover, using well-known FS methods with the features discretized by our techniques leads to better accuracy than with the features discretized by other methods or with the original features. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks Training Through Charged System Search and its Application for Non-Technical Losses Detection

The non-technical loss is not a problem with trivial solution or regional character and its minimization represents the guarantee of investments in product quality and maintenance of power systems, introduced by a competitive environment after the period of privatization in the national scene. In this paper, we show how to improve the training phase of a neural network-based classifier using a recently proposed meta-heuristic technique called Charged System Search, which is based on the interactions between electrically charged particles. The experiments were carried out in the context of non-technical loss in power distribution systems in a dataset obtained from a Brazilian electrical power company, and have demonstrated the robustness of the proposed technique against with several others natureinspired optimization techniques for training neural networks. Thus, it is possible to improve some applications on Smart Grids.

A New Heuristic Providing an Effective Initial Solution for a Simulated Annealing approach to Energy Resource Scheduling in Smart Grids

An intensive use of dispersed energy resources is expected for future power systems, including distributed generation, especially based on renewable sources, and electric vehicles. The system operation methods and tool must be adapted to the increased complexity, especially the optimal resource scheduling problem. Therefore, the use of metaheuristics is required to obtain good solutions in a reasonable amount of time. This paper proposes two new heuristics, called naive electric vehicles charge and discharge allocation and generation tournament based on cost, developed to obtain an initial solution to be used in the energy resource scheduling methodology based on simulated annealing previously developed by the authors. The case study considers two scenarios with 1000 and 2000 electric vehicles connected in a distribution network. The proposed heuristics are compared with a deterministic approach and presenting a very small error concerning the objective function with a low execution time for the scenario with 2000 vehicles.

Condition-Based Diagnosis of Mechatronic Systems Using a Fractional Calculus Approach

While fractional calculus (FC) is as old as integer calculus, its application has been mainly restricted to mathematics. However, many real systems are better described using FC equations than with integer models. FC is a suitable tool for describing systems characterised by their fractal nature, long-term memory and chaotic behaviour. It is a promising methodology for failure analysis and modelling, since the behaviour of a failing system depends on factors that increase the model’s complexity. This paper explores the proficiency of FC in modelling complex behaviour by tuning only a few parameters. This work proposes a novel two-step strategy for diagnosis, first modelling common failure conditions and, second, by comparing these models with real machine signals and using the difference to feed a computational classifier. Our proposal is validated using an electrical motor coupled with a mechanical gear reducer.

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Clinical decisions in breast cancer, a heterogenous disease

RESUMO: Introdução: Tratamento do carcinoma da mama Este trabalho inicia-se com a história do tratamento do carcinoma da mama, desde os primeiros documentos que descrevem doentes com carcinoma da mama até 1950. Desde 1950 até 2000 o diagnóstico, risco e as modalidades terapêuticas usadas no tratamento das doentes são mais detalhadas com ênfase nas terapêuticas locais, regionais e sistémicas. Parte 1:Quem tratar com terapêutica sistémica adjuvante Capítulo 1: A classificação TNM não está morta no carcinoma da mama Tem sido dito que a classificação TNM não é adequada para usar como ferramenta de prognóstico e decisão terapêutica no carcinoma da mama, especialmente em doentes com carcinoma detectado através de rastreio, que tem geralmente menores dimensões. A razão desta classificação não ser adequada prendese com o facto de não estarem incluidos parâmetros biológicos na classificação TNM atual. Pusemos a hipótese de que numa população com alta percentagem de carcinoma da mama não detectado em exames de rastreio, com uma mediana de idade baixa e com alta percentagem de estadios II e III, o estadiamento clássico, pela classificação TNM, é mais descriminatório que as características biológicas na determinação do prognóstico. Para isto analisámos uma população de doentes com carcinoma da mama tratados consecutivamente na mesma instituição, durante 10 anos. Caracterizámos os fatores de prognóstico do estadiamento clássico incluídos na classificação TNM e as variantes biológicas, presentemente não incluídas na classificação TNM. Quantificámos a capacidade de cada um dos factores de prognóstico para para prever a sobrevivência. A população é de 1699 doentes com carcinoma da mama que foram tratádos com terapêutica sistémica adjuvante. Individualmente, cada um dos fatores de prognostico, clássicos ou biológicos, diferem significativamente entre doentes que sobrevivem e que não sobrevivem. Explicitamente, como previsto, doentes com tumores maiores, envolvimento dos gânglios axilares, estadios TNM mais avançados, que não expressam recetor de esrogéneo, com amplificação do gene Her2, triplos negativos ou de menor diferenciação têm menor sobrevida. Na análise multivariada, só os fatores de prognostico da classificação TNM, o grau histológico e a amplificação do gene Her2, esta última com menos significância estatistica são preditores independentes de sobrevivência. Capítulo 2: Em busca de novos factores de prognostico: Poder preditivo e mecanismo das alterações de centrossomas em carcinoma da mama Compilámos inúmeros grupos de experiências de genómica feitas em tumores primários de doentes com carcinoma da mama para as quais existe informação prognóstica. Estas experiências são feitas com o objectivo de descobrir novos factores de prognóstico. Reanalisámos os dados, repetindo a mesma pergunta: Quais são os genes com expressão diferencial estatisticamente significativa entre doentes que recaíram e doentes que não recaíram. Identificámos 65 genes nestas condições e o MKI67, o gene que codifica a proteina Ki67, estava nesse grupo. Identificámos vários genes que se sabe estarem envolvidos no processo de agregação de centrossomas. O gene que considerámos mais promissor foi a kinesina KiFC1, que já tinha sido identificada como regulador da agregação de centrossomas. Anomalias cetrossomais numéricas e estruturais têm sido observadas em neoplasias. Há dados correlacionando anolmalias centrossomais estruturais e e numéricas com o grau de malignidade e os eventos precoces da carcinogénese. Mas estas anomalias centrossomais têm um peso para a célula que deve adapatar-se ou entrará em apoptose. Os nossos resultados sugerem que existe um mecanismo adaptativo, a agregação de centrossomas, com impacto prognóstico negativo. O nosso objetivo foi quantificar o valor prognóstico das anomalias centrossomais no carcinoma da mama. Para isto usámos material de doentes dos quais sabemos a história natural. Avaliámos os genes de agregação de centrossomas, KIFC1 e TACC3, nas amostras tumorais arquivadas em parafina: primeiro com PCR (polymerase chain reaction) quantitativa e depois com imunohistoquímica (IHQ). Apenas a proteína KIFC1 foi discriminatória em IHQ, não se tendo conseguido otimizar o anticorpo da TACC3. Os níveis proteicos de KIFC1 correlacionam-se com mau prognóstico. Nas doentes que recaíram observámos, no tumor primário, maior abundância desta proteína com localização nuclear. Em seguida, demonstrámos que a agregação de centrossomas é um fenómeno que ocorre in vivo. Identificámos centrossomas agregados em amostras de tumores primários de doentes que recaíram. Tecnicamente usámos microscopia de fluorescência e IHQ contra proteínas centrossomais que avaliámos nos tumores primários arquivados em blocos de parafina. Observámos agregação de centrossomas num pequeno número de doentes que recaíram, não validámos, ainda, este fenótipo celular em larga escala. Parte 2: Como tratar com terapêutica sistémica os vários subtipos de carcinoma da mama Capítulo 3: Quantas doenças estão englobadas na definição carcinoma da mama triplo negativo? (revisão) O carcinoma da mama triplo negativo é um tumor que não expressa três proteínas: recetor de estrogénio, recetor de progesterona e o recetor do fator de crescimento epidermico tipo 2 (Her2). As doentes com estes tumores não são ainda tratadas com terapêutica dirigida, possivelmente porque esta definição negativa não tem ajudado. Sabemos apenas as alterações genéticas que estes tumores não têm, não as que eles têm. Talvez por esta razão, estes tumores são o subtipo mais agressivo de carcinoma da mama. No entanto, na prática clínica observamos que estas doentes não têm sempre mau prognóstico, além de que dados de histopatologia e epidemiologia sugerem que esta definição negativa não está a capturar um único subtipo de carcinoma da mama, mas vários. Avaliámos criticamente esta evidência, clínica, histopatológica, epidemiológica e molecular. Há evidência de heterogeneidade, mas não é claro quantos subtipos estão englobados nesta definição de carcinoma da mama triplo negativo. A resposta a esta pergunta, e a identificação do fundamento molecular desta heterogeneidade vai ajudar a melhor definir o prognóstico e eventualmente a definir novos alvos terapêuticos nesta população difícil. Capítulo 4: Terapêuica sistémica em carcinoma da mama triplo negativo (revisão) A quimioterapia é a única terapêutica sistémica disponível para as doentes com carcinoma da mama triplo negativo, ao contrário dos outros dois subtipo de carcinoma da mama que têm com a terapêutica antiestrogénica e anti Her2, importantes benefícios. Apesar de terem surgido várias opções terapêuticas para estes doentes nennhuma terapêutica dirigida foi validada pelos ensaios clínicos conduzidos, possivelmente porque a biologia deste carcinoma ainda não foi elucidada. Muitos ensaios demonstram que os tumores triplos negativos beneficiam com quimioterapia e que as mais altas taxas de resposta patológica completa à terapêutica neoadjuvante são observadas precisamente nestes tumors. A resposta patológica completa correlaciona-se com a sobrevivência. Estamos a estudar regimes adjuvantes específicos para doentes com estes tumors, mas, neste momento, regimes de terceira geração com taxanos e antraciclinas são os mais promissores. O papel de subgrupos de fármacos específicos, como os sais de platina, mantémse mal definido. Quanto às antraciclinas e taxanos, estes grupos não mostraram beneficio específico em carcinoma da mama triplo negativo quando comparado com os outros subtipos. Os próprios carcinomas da mama triplos negativos são heterogéneos e carcinomas da mama basais triplos negativos com elevada taxa de proliferação e carcinomas da mama triplos negativos surgidos em doentes com mutação germinal BRCA1 poderão ser mais sensíveis a sais de platino e menos sensíveis a taxanos. Como a definição molecular ainda não foi explicada a busca de terapêutica dirigida vai continuar. Capítulo 5: Ensaio randomizado de fase II do anticorpo monoclonal contra o recetor do fator de crescimento epidérmico tipo 1 combinado com cisplatino versus cisplatino em monoterapia em doentes com carcinoma da mama triplo negativo metastizado O recetor do fator de crescimento epidérmico tipo 1 está sobre expresso nos tumores das doentes com carcinoma da mama triplo negativo metastizado, um subtipo agressivo de carcinoma da mama. Este ensaio investigou a combinação de cetuximab e cisplatino versus cisplatino isolado em doentes deste tipo. Doentes em primeira ou segunda linha de terapêutica para doença metastizada foram randomizadas, num sistema de 2 para 1, para receber até 6 ciclos da combinação de cisplatino e cetuximab ou cisplatino isolado. Às doentes randomizadas para o braço de monoterapia podiamos, após progressão, acrescentar cetuximab ou tratá-las com cetuximab isolado. O objetivo primário foi a taxa de resposta global. Os objetivos secundários foram a sobrevivência livre de doença, a sobrevivência global e o perfil de segurança dos fármacos. A população em análise foram 115 doentes tratadas com a combinação e 58 doentes tratadas com cisplatino em monoterapia, 31 destas em quem se documentou progressão passaram a ser tratadas com um regime que incluía cetuximab, isolado ou em combinação. A taxa de resposta global foi de 20% no braço da combinaçao e de 10% no braço da monoterapia (odds ratio, 2.13). A sobrevivência livre de doença foi de 3.7 meses no braço da combinação e de 1.5 meses no braço em monoterapia (hazard ratio, 0.67). A sobrevivência global foi de 12.9 meses no braço da combinação versus 9.4 meses no braço de cisplatino. Conclui-se que, apesar de não ter sido alcançado o objectivo primário, acrescentar cetuximab, duplica a resposta e prolonga tanto a sobrevivência livre de doença como a sobrevivência global. Capítulo 6: Bloquear a angiogénese para tratar o carcinoma da mama (revisão) A angiogénese é uma característica que define a neoplasia, porque tumores com mais de 1mm precisam de formar novos vasos para poderem crescer. Desde que se descobriram as moléculas que orquestram esta transformação, que se têm procurado desenvolver e testar fármacos que interfiram com este processo. No carcinoma da mama o bevacizumab foi o primeiro fármaco aprovado pela FDA em primeira linha para tratar doença metastática. Depois foram estudados um grupo de inibidores de tirosina cinase associados aos recetores transmembranares envolvidos na angiogénese como o VEGFR, PDGFR, KIT, RET, BRAF e Flt3: sunitinib, sorafenib, pazopanib e axitinib Neste capítulo, analisaram-se e resumiram-se os dados dos ensaios clínicos das drogas anti-angiogénicas no tratamaneto do carcinoma da mama. Os ensaios de fase III do bevacizumab em carcinoma da mama mostraram uma redução na progressão de doença de 22 a 52% e aumento da sobrevivência livre de doença de 1.2 a 5.5 meses mas nunca foi demonstrado prolongamento de sobrevivência. Os ensaios de fase III em carcinoma da mama adjuvante com bevacizumab são dois e foram ambos negativos. O ensaio de fase III com o inibidor da tirosina cinase, sunitinib foi negativo, enquanto que os ensaios de fase II com os inibidores da tirosina cinase sorafenib e pazopanib melhoraram alguns indicadores de resposta e sobrevivência. A endostatina foi testada no contexto neoadjuvante com antraciclinas e melhorou a taxa de resposta, mas, mais ensaios são necessários para estabelecer este fármaco. A maioria dos ensaios clínicos dos agentes antiangiogénicos em carcinoma da mama reportaram aumento da taxa de resposta e de sobrevivência livre de doença mas nunca aumento da sobrevivência global quando comparado com quimioterapia isolada o que levou ao cepticismo a que assistimos atualmente em relação ao bloqueio da angiogénese. Ensaios clínicos selecionados em doentes específicas com objetivos translacionais relacionados com material biológico colhido, preferefencialmente em diferentes intervalos da terapêutica, serão cruciais para o bloqueio da angiogénese sobreviver como estratégia terapêutica em carcinoma da mama. Capítulo 7: A resposta à hipoxia medeia a resistência primária ao sunitinib em carcinoma da mama localmente avançado O sunitinib é um fármaco antiangiogénico que nunca foi avaliado isolado em doentes com carcinoma da mama não tratadas. O nosso objetivo foi caracaterizar a atividade do sunitinib isolado e em combinação com o docetaxel em carcinoma da mama não tratado, localmente avançado ou operável, mas de dimensão superior a 2 cm, para compreender os mecanismos de resposta. Doze doentes foram tratadas com duas semanas iniciais de sunitinib seguido de quatro ciclos de combinação de sunitinib e docetaxel. A resposta, a reistência e a toxicidade foram avaliadas de acordo com parametros clínicos, ressonância magnética nuclear, tomografia de emissão de positrões, histopatologia e perfis de expressão genómica. Detetámos resistência primária ao sunitinib na janela inicial de duas semanas, evidenciada em quatro doentes que não responderam. À data da cirurgia, cinco doentes tinham tumor viável na mama e axila, quatro tinahm tumor viável na mama e três foram retiradas do ensaio. Não houve respostas patológicas completas. A comparação dos perfis de expressão genómica entre os respondedores e os não respondedores, aos quinze dias iniciais, permitiu-nos identificar sobre expressão de VEGF e outras vias angiogénicas nos não respondedores. Especificamente, em tumores resistentes ao sunitinib isolado detectámos uma resposta transcricional à hipoxia caracterizada por sobre expressão de vários dos genes alvo do HIF1α. Neste ensaio de sunitinib isolado em doentes não tratadas com carcinoma da mama localmente avançado, encontrámos evidência molecular de resistência primária ao sunitinib possivelmente mediada por sobre expressão de genes que respondem à hipoxia. Parte 3: Quando parar a terapêutica sistémica às doentes com carcinoma da mama Capítulo 8: Agressividade terapêutica ns últimos três meses de vida num estudo retrospetivo dum centro único Incluímos todos os adultos que morreram com tumores sólidos na instituição em 2003 e foram tratados com quimioterapia para tratar neoplaias metastizadas. Colhemos dados detalhados relacionados com quimioterapia e toxicidade nos últimos três meses de vida a partir do processo clínico. Trezentas e dezanove doentes foram incluídos, a mediana de idade foi 61 anos. A mediana de sobrevivência de doença metastática foi de 11 meses. 66% (211) dos doentes foram tratados com QT nos últimos 3 meses de vida, 37% foram tratados com QT no úlimo mês de vida e 21% nas últimas duas semanas. Nos doentes que foram tratados com QT nos últimos três meses de vida, 50% começaram um novo regime terapêutico neste período e 14% começaram um novo regime no último mês. Identificámos como determinantes de tratamento com QT no fim de vida a idade jovem, o carcinoma da mama, do ovário e do pâncreas. Concluímos que administrámos QT no fim de vida frequentemente e iniciámos novos regimes terapêuticos no último mês de vida em 14% dos casos. Precisamos de aprofundar este trabalho para compreender se esta atitude agressiva resulta em melhor paliação de sintomas e qualidade de vida no fim de vida dos doentes com neoplasias disseminadas. Capítulo 9: O tratamento do carcinoma da mama no fim de vida está a mudar? Quisémos caracterizar a modificação da tendência no uso de QT e de estratégias paliativas no fim de vida das doentes com carcinoma da mama em diferentes instituições e em intervalos de tempo diferentes. Para isto selecionámos doentes que morreram de carcinoma da mama durante 6 anos, entre 2007 e 2012, num hospital geral e comparámos com as doentes que morreram de carcinoma da mama em 2003 num centro oncológico. Avaliámos um total de 232 doentes. O grupo mais recente tem 114 doentes e o grupo anterior tem 118 doentes. Usámos estatística descritiva para caracterizar QT no fim de vida e o uso de estratégias paliativas. Ambas as coortes são comparáveis em termos das características do carcinoma da mama. Observámos aumento do uso de estatégias paliativas: consulta da dor, consulta de cuidados paliativos e radioterapia paliativa no cuidado das doentes com carcinoma da mama metastizado. Evidenciámos aumento do número de mortes em serviços de cuidados paliativos. No entanto, a QT paliativa continua a ser prolongada até aos últimos meses de vida, embora tenhamos mostrado uma diminuição desta prática. Outros indicadores de agressividade como a admissão hospitalar também mostraram diminuição. Confirmámos a nossa hipótese de que há maior integração da medicina paliativa multidisciplinar e menos agressividade na terapêutica sistémica das doentes com carcinoma da mama nos últimos meses de vida. Chapter 10: Porque é que os nossos doentes são tratados com quimioterapia até ao fim da vida? (editorial) Este capítulo começa por dar o exmeplo duma jovem de 22 anos que viveu três meses após começar QT paliatva. Este caso epitomiza a futilidade terapêutica e é usado como ponto de partida para explorar as razões pelas quais administramos QT no fim de vida aos doentes quando é inútil, tóxica, logisticamente complexa e cara. Será que estamos a prescrever QT até tarde demais? Os oncologistas fazem previsões excessivamente otimistas e têm uma atitude pró terapêutica excessiva e são criticados por outros intervenientes nas instituições de saúde por isto. Crescentemente doentes, familiares, associações de doentes, definidores de políticas de saúde, jornalistas e a sociedade em geral afloram este tema mas tornam-se inconsistentes quando se trata dum doente próximo em que se modifica o discurso para que se façam terapêuticas sitémicas agressivas. Há uma crescente cultura de preservação da qualidade de vida, paliação, abordagem sintomática, referenciação a unidades de cuidados paliativos e outros temas do fim de vida dos doentes oncológicos terminais. Infelizmente, este tema tem ganhado momentum não porque os oncologistas estejam a refletir criticamente sobre a sua prática, mas porque os custos dos cuidados de saúde são crescentes e incomportáveis. Seja qual fôr o motivo, as razões que levam os oncologistas a administrar QT no fim de vida devem ser criticamente elucidadas. Mas há poucos dados para nos guiar nesta fase delicada da vida dos doentes e os que existem são por vezes irreconciliáveis, é uma revisão destes dados que foi feita neste capítulo. Conclusão: A abordagem do carcinoma da mama no futuro? Na conclusão, tenta-se olhar para o futuro e prever como será a tomada a cargo dum doente com carcioma da mama amanhã. Faz-se uma avaliação das várias àreas desde prevenção, rastreio, suscetibilidade genética e comportamental e terapêutica. Na terapêutica separa-se a terapêutica locoregional, sistémica adjuvante e da doença metastizada. Nos três últimos parágrafos a história duma mulher com um carcinoma localmente avançado que sobre expressa o recetor Her2, serve como ilustração de como devemos estar preparados para incorporar evolução, heterogeneidade e dinamismo no cuidado de doentes com carcinoma da mama. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Introduction: Breast cancer care in the past This work starts with an overview of the treatment of breast cancer (BC). From the first reports of patients ill with BC until 1950. From 1950 until 2000, there is a more detailed account on how BC patients were treated with emphasis on the different modalities, local, regional and systemic treatments and their evolution. Part 1: Who to treat with adjuvant systemic therapy? Chapter 1: TNM is not dead in breast cancer It has been said that the current TNM staging system might not be suitable for predicting breast cancer (BC) outcomes and for making therapeutic decisions, especially for patients with screen detected BC which is smaller. The reason for this is also due to the non inclusion of tumor biology parameters in the current TNM system. We hypothesize that in a population where there is still a large abundance of non screen detected BC, with a low median age of incidence and abundance of high TNM staged lesions, biology is still second to classical staging in predicting prognosis. We analyzed a population of consecutive BC patients from a single institution during ten years. We characterized current established prognostic factors, classical staging variables included in the current TNM staging system and biological variables, currently not included in the TNM system. We quantified the capacity of individual prognostic factors to predict survival. We analyzed a population of 1699 consecutive BC patients. We found that individually both the TNM system prognostic factors and the biological prognostic factors are differing among BC survivors and dead patients in a statistically significant distribution. Explicitly, patients with larger tumors, positive nodes, higher stage lesions, ER negative, HER2 positive, TN or lower differentiation tumors show decreased survival. In the multivariate analysis we can conclude that in a population such as ours classical TNM staging variables, irrespective of tumor biological features, are still the most powerful outcome predictors. Chapter 2: Defining breast cancer prognosis: The predictive power and mechanism of centrosome alterations in breast cancer We performed a systematic analysis of the literature and compiled an extensive data set of gene expression data originated in primary tumours of BC patients with prognostic information. We analysed this data seeking for genes consistently up or down regulated in poor prognosis BC, i.e. that relapsed after initial treatment. In the course this bioinformatics analysis our lab identified 65 genes statistically significant across multiple datasets that can discriminate between relapsed and non-relapsed BC patients. Among the identified genes, we have detected genes such as MKI67, a marker of mitotic activity which is routinely used in the clinic. Unexpectedly, we also discovered several genes found to be involved in centrosome clustering, The most prominent of these is the kinesin KIFC1, also called HSET, and previously identified as regulator of centrosome clustering. Centrosome abnormalities (numerical, structural) have been observed in cancer. Indeed, compelling data has shown that cells from many cancers have multiple and abnormal centrosomes, that are either correlated with tumour malignancy or considered an early tumorigenesis event. However, extra centrosomes come at a cost and cells must be able to handle such abnormalities or otherwise die. Thus our results suggested a new mechanism of breast cancer progression with negative prognostic value. We aimed at quantifying the predictive power of centrosome clustering in BC clinical setting and at detecting this process in BC patient material. We validated the centrosome clustering genes KIFC1 and TACC3 in formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) BC patient material, using quantitative real-time PCR (RT-qPCR) technology. Our results indicate that the tested KIFC1 has a clear IHC signal (1) and that the protein expression patterns and levels correlate with prognosis, with relapsing patients having increased expression and nuclear localisation of this kinesin (2). Next we were able to show that centrosome clustering does occur in vivo. We identified centrosome amplification and clustering in breast cancer samples, and we established a fluorescence microscopy-based IHC approach by staining FFPE samples with centrosomal markers. Using this approach we have observed centrosome amplification and clustering in a small set of poor prognosis samples. By expanding the number of samples in which we have characterised the number of centrosomes, we were able to confirm our preliminary observation that centrosomes are clustered in relapsed BC. Part 2: How to treat breast cancer subtypes? Chapter 3: How many diseases is triple negative breast cancer? (review) Triple negative breast cancer is a subtype of breast cancer that does not express the estrogen receptor, the progesterone receptor and the epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (Her2). These tumors are not yet treated with targeted therapies probably because no positive markers have been described to reliably classify them - they are described for what they are not. Perhaps for this reason, they are among the most aggressive of breast carcinomas, albeit with very heterogenous clinical behavior. The clinical observation that these patients do not carry a uniformly dismal prognosis, coupled with data coming from pathology and epidemiology, suggests that this negative definition is not capturing a single clinical entity, but several. We critically evaluate this evidence in this paper, reviewing clinical and epidemiological data, as well as molecular data. There is evidence for heterogeneity, but it is not clear how many diseases are grouped into triple negative breast cancer. Answering this question, and identifying the molecular basis of heterogeneity will help define prognosis and, eventually, the identification of new targeted therapies. Chapter 4: Systemic treatment for triple negative breast cancer (review) Chemotherapy remains the backbone of treatment for triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Despite the appearance of new targeted and biologic agents there has been no targeted therapy validated for TNBC, possibly because the biology of TNBC has not been conclusively elucidated. Many studies have shown that TNBC derive significant benefit of chemotherapy in the neoadjuvant, adjuvant and metastatic treatment, possibly more benefit than other BC subtypes. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy studies have repeatedly shown higher response rates in TNBC than non-TNBC. Pathologic complete response has been shown to predict improved long term outcomes in BC. Although specific adjuvant regimens for TNBC are under study, third generation chemotherapy regimens utilizing dose dense or metronomic polychemotherapy are among the most effective tools presently available. The role of specific chemotherapy agents, namely platinum salts, in the treatment of TNBC remains undefined. Taxanes and anthracyclines are active in TNBC and remain important agents, but have not shown specific benefit over non-TNBC. TNBC is itself a heterogeneous group in which subgroups like basal like BC defined by higher proliferation and including those TNBC arising in BRCA1 mutation carriers may be more sensitive to platinum agents and relatively less sensitive to taxanes. The molecular characterization of TNBC is lacking and therefore the search for targeted therapy is still ongoing. Chapter 5: Randomized phase II study of the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibody cetuximab with cisplatin versus cisplatin alone in patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer Epidermal growth factor receptor is overexpressed in metastatic triple-negative breast cancers, an aggressive subtype of breast cancer. Our randomized phase II study investigated cisplatin with or without cetuximab in this setting. Patients who had received no more than one previous chemotherapy regimen were randomly assigned on a 2:1 schedule to receive no more than six cycles of cisplatin plus cetuximab or cisplatin alone. Patients receiving cisplatin alone could switch to cisplatin plus cetuximab or cetuximab alone on disease progression. The primary end point was overall response rate (ORR). Secondary end points studied included progressionfree survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety profiles. The full analysis set comprised 115 patients receiving cisplatin plus cetuximab and 58 receiving cisplatin alone; 31 patients whose disease progressed on cisplatin alone switched to cetuximab-containing therapy. The ORR was 20% with cisplatin plus cetuximab and 10% with cisplatin alone (odds ratio, 2.13). Cisplatin plus cetuximab resulted in longer PFS compared with cisplatin alone (median, 3.7 v 1.5 months; hazard ratio, 0.67. Corresponding median OS was 12.9 versus 9.4 months. While the primary study end point was not met, adding cetuximab to cisplatin doubled the ORR and appeared to prolong PFS and OS, warranting further investigation in mTNBC. Chapter 6: Blocking angiogenesis to treat breast cancer (review) Angiogenesis is a hallmark of cancer because tumors larger than 1mm need new vessels to sustain their growth. Since the discovery of the molecular players of this process and some inhibitors, that angiogenesis became a promising therapeutic target. Bevacizumab was the first molecular-targeted antiangiogenic therapy approved by the FDA and is used as first-line therapy in metastatic breast cancer. A second class of approved inhibitors (sunitinib, sorafenib, pazopanib and axitinib) include oral small-molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors that target vascular endothelial growth factor receptors, platelet-derived growth factor receptors, and other kinases including KIT, Ret, BRAF and Flt-3, but none of these have gained approval to treat breast cancer. This review analyzes and summarizes data from clinical trials of anti-angiogenic agents in the treatment of BC. Phase III trials of bevacizumab in advanced BC have demonstrated a reduction in disease progression (22–52%), increased response rates and improvements in progression-free survival of 1.2 to 5.5 months, but no improvements in OS. Bevacizumab phase III trials in early BC have both been negative. Bevacizumab combined with chemotherapy is associated with more adverse events. Phase III trials of the tyrosine kinase inhibitor sunitinib were negative, while randomized phase II trials of sorafenib and pazopanib have improved some outcomes. Endostatin has been tested in neoadjuvant clinical trials in combination with anthracyclinebased chemotherapy in treatment-naive patients and has increased the clinical response rate, but more trials are needed to establish this drug. Most trials of anti-angiogenic agents in BC have reported improved RR and PFS but no increase in OS compared to chemotherapy alone, leading to skepticism towards blocking angiogenesis. Selected trials in selected BC populations with translational endpoints related to harvested tumor tissue and other biological material samples, preferentially at several timepoints, will be crucial if antiangiogenesis is to survive as a strategy to treat BC. Chapter 7: Does hypoxic response mediate primary resistance to sunitinib in untreated locally advanced breast cancer? The antiangiogenic drug sunitinib has never been evaluated as single agent in untreated BC patients. We aimed to characterize the activity of sunitinib, alone and with docetaxel, in untreated locally advanced or operable BC, and, to uncover the mechanisms of response. Twelve patients were treated with an upfront window of sunitinib followed by four cycles of sunitinib plus docetaxel. Response, resistance and toxicity were evaluated according to standard clinical parameters, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, pathology characterization and gene expression profiling. We detected primary resistance to sunitinib upfront window in untreated BC, as evidenced by four non-responding patients. At surgery, five patients had viable disease in the breast and axilla, four had viable tumor cells in the breast alone and three were taken off study due to unacceptable toxicity and thus not evaluated. Early functional imaging was useful in predicting response. There were no pathologic complete responses (pCR). Comparison of gene expression profiling tumor data between early responders and non-responders allowed us to identify upregulation of VEGF and angiogenic pathways in non responders. Specifically, in tumors resistant to the single-agent sunitinib we detected a transcriptional response to hypoxia characterized by over-expression of several HIF1α target genes. In this report of single-agent sunitinib treatment of untreated localized BC patients, we found molecular evidence of primary resistance to sunitinib likely mediated by up-regulation of hypoxia responsive genes. Part 3: When to stop systemic treatment of breast cancer patients? Chapter 8: The aggressiveness of cancer care in the last three months of life: a retrospective single centre analysis. All adult patients with solid tumors who died in our hospital in 2003 and received chemotherapy for advanced cancer, were included. Detailed data concerning chemotherapy and toxicity, in the last three months of life, were collected from patientsʼ clinical charts. A total of 319 patients were included. Median age was 61 years. Median time from diagnosis of metastatic disease to death was 11 months. The proportion of patients who received chemotherapy in the last three months of life was 66% (n=211), in the last month 37% and in the last two weeks 21%. Among patients who received chemotherapy in the last three months of life, 50% started a new chemotherapy regimen in this period and 14% in the last month. There was an increased probability of receiving chemotherapy in the last three months of life in younger patients and in patients with breast, ovarian and pancreatic carcinomas. There was a large proportion of patients who received chemotherapy in the last three months of life, including initiation of a new regimen within the last 30 days. Thus, further study is needed to evaluate if such aggressive attitude results in better palliation of symptoms at the end of life. Chapter 9: Is breast cancer treatment in the end of life changing? We aimed to characterize the shifting trends in use of anti-cancer chemotherapy and palliative care approaches in the end of life of BC patients in different institutions and times. For this, we selected women that died of BC during six years, from 2007 to 2012, and were treated in a central acute care general hospital and compared it with the BC patients that died in 2003 and were treated in a large cancer center. We analyzed a total of 232 patients: the more recent group has 114 women and the older cohort has 118. We used descriptive statistics to characterize CT in the EoL and use of palliative care resources. Both populations were similar in terms of BC characteristics. We observed more palliative care resources, pain clinic, palliative care teams and palliative radiotherapy, involved in the care of MBC patients and a shift towards more deaths at hospices. Systemic anti cancer treatments continue to be prolonged until very late in patients’ lives, notwithstanding, we could show a decrease in the use of such treatments. Other indicators of aggressiveness, namely hospital admissions, also show a decrease. We confirmed our hypothesis that there is more integration of multidisciplinary palliative care and less aggressiveness in the treatment of metastatic cancer patients, specifically, use of palliative anti-cancer treatment and hospital admissions. Nonetheless, we use systemic therapy until too late with underutilization of palliative medicine. Chapter 10: Why do our patients get chemotherapy until the end of life? (editorial) The editorial starts with a clinical case of a 21 year old patient that lives three months after starting palliative chemotherapy for the first time, a case that illustrates therapeutic futility at the end of life. Why are we not ceasing chemotherapy when it is useless, toxic, logistically complex and expensive? Are we prescribing chemotherapy until too late in solid tumor patientsʼ lives? Medical oncologists have overly optimistic predictions and, excessive, treatment-prone attitude and they are criticized by other health care providers for this. Increasingly, patients, their families, advocacy groups, policy makers, journalists and society at large dwell on this topic, which is a perplexing conundrum, because sometimes they are the ones demanding not to stop aggressive systemic anticancer treatments, when it comes to their loved ones. There is a growing culture of awareness toward preserving quality of life, palliative care, symptom-directed care, hospice referral and end of life issues regarding terminal cancer patients. Sadly, this issue is gaining momentum, not because oncologists are questioning their practice but because health care costs are soaring. Whatever the motive, the reasons for administering chemotherapy at the end of life should be known. There are few and conflicting scientific data to guide treatments in this delicate setting and we review this evidence in this paper. Conclusion: What is the future of breast cancer care? This work ends with a view into the future of BC care. Looking into the different areas from prevention, screening, hereditary BC, local, regional and systemic treatments of adjuvant and metastatic patients. The last three paragraphs are a final comment where the story of a patient with Her2 positive locally advanced breast cancer is used as paradigm of evolution, heterogeneity and dynamism in the management of BC.

Effect on renal function of tenofovir co-administered with either efavirenz or boosted lopinavir or boosted atazanavir: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Reduced re'nal function has been reported with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). It is not clear whether TDF co-administered with a boosted protease inhibitor (PI) leads to a greater decline in renal function than TDF co-administered with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI).Methods: We selected ail antiretroviral therapy-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with calibrated or corrected serum creatinine measurements starting antiretroviral therapy with TDF and either efavirenz (EFV) or the ritonavir-boosted PIs, lopinavir (LPV/r) or atazanavir (ATV/r). As a measure of renal function, we used the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We calculated the difference in eGFR over time between two therapies using a marginal model for repeated measures. In weighted analyses, observations were weighted by the product of their point of treatment and censoring weights to adjust for differences both in the sort of patients starting each therapy and in the sort of patients remaining on each therapy over time.Results: By March 2011, 940 patients with at least one creatinine measurement on a first therapy with either TDF and EFV (n=484), TDF and LPVlr (n=269) or TDF and ATV/r (n=187) had been followed for a median of 1. 7, 1.2 and 1.3 years, respectively. Table 1 shows the difference in average estimated GFR (eGFR) over time since starting cART for two marginal models. The first model was not adjusted for potential confounders; the second mode! used weights to adjust for confounders. The results suggest a greater decline in renal function during the first 6 months if TDF is used with a PI rather than with an NNRTI, but no further difference between these therapies after the first 6 months. TDF and ATV/r may lead to a greater decline in the first 6 months than TDF and LPVlr.Conclusions: TDF co-administered with a boosted PI leads to a greater de cline in renal function over the first 6 months of therapy than TDF co-administered with an NNRTI; this decline may be worse with ATV/r than with LPV/r.

Constitutive activation of Wnt signaling favors generation of memory CD8 T cells.

T cell factor-1 (TCF-1) and lymphoid enhancer-binding factor 1, the effector transcription factors of the canonical Wnt pathway, are known to be critical for normal thymocyte development. However, it is largely unknown if it has a role in regulating mature T cell activation and T cell-mediated immune responses. In this study, we demonstrate that, like IL-7Ralpha and CD62L, TCF-1 and lymphoid enhancer-binding factor 1 exhibit dynamic expression changes during T cell responses, being highly expressed in naive T cells, downregulated in effector T cells, and upregulated again in memory T cells. Enforced expression of a p45 TCF-1 isoform limited the expansion of Ag-specific CD8 T cells in response to Listeria monocytogenes infection. However, when the p45 transgene was coupled with ectopic expression of stabilized beta-catenin, more Ag-specific memory CD8 T cells were generated, with enhanced ability to produce IL-2. Moreover, these memory CD8 T cells expanded to a larger number of secondary effectors and cleared bacteria faster when the immunized mice were rechallenged with virulent L. monocytogenes. Furthermore, in response to vaccinia virus or lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection, more Ag-specific memory CD8 T cells were generated in the presence of p45 and stabilized beta-catenin transgenes. Although activated Wnt signaling also resulted in larger numbers of Ag-specific memory CD4 T cells, their functional attributes and expansion after the secondary infection were not improved. Thus, constitutive activation of the canonical Wnt pathway favors memory CD8 T cell formation during initial immunization, resulting in enhanced immunity upon second encounter with the same pathogen.

IFN stimulated gene expression in the liver is a better predictor of treatment response in chronic hepatitis c than the IL28b (IFN lambda 3) genotype

Background: Therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pegIFNa/ribavirin achieves sustained virologic response (SVR) in ~55%. Pre-activation of the endogenous interferon system in the liver is associated non-response (NR). Recently, genome-wide association studies described associations of allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response and with spontaneous clearance of the virus. We investigated if the IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) in the liver of patients with CHC. Methods: We genotyped 93 patients with CHC for 3 IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, rs12979860, rs8099917, rs12980275), extracted RNA from their liver biopsies and quantified the expression of IL28B and of 8 previously identified classifier genes which discriminate between SVR and NR (IFI44L, RSAD2, ISG15, IFI22, LAMP3, OAS3, LGALS3BP and HTATIP2). Decision tree ensembles in the form of a random forest classifier were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. Results: The minor IL28B allele (bad risk for treatment response) was significantly associated with increased expression of ISGs, and, unexpectedly, with decreased expression of IL28B. Stratification of the patients into SVR and NR revealed that ISG expression was conditionally independent from the IL28B genotype, i.e. there was an increased expression of ISGs in NR compared to SVR irrespective of the IL28B genotype. The random forest feature score (RFFS) identified IFI27 (RFFS = 2.93), RSAD2 (1.88) and HTATIP2 (1.50) expression and the HCV genotype (1.62) as the strongest predictors of treatment response. ROC curves of the IL28B SNPs showed an AUC of 0.66 with an error rate (ERR) of 0.38. A classifier with the 3 best classifying genes showed an excellent test performance with an AUC of 0.94 and ERR of 0.15. The addition of IL28B genotype information did not improve the predictive power of the 3-gene classifier. Conclusions: IL28B genotype and hepatic ISG expression are conditionally independent predictors of treatment response in CHC. There is no direct link between altered IFNλ3 expression and pre-activation of the endogenous system in the liver. Hepatic ISG expression is by far the better predictor for treatment response than IL28B genotype.

B and T lymphocyte attenuator regulates CD8+ T cell-intrinsic homeostasis and memory cell generation.

B and T lymphocyte attenuator (BTLA) is a negative regulator of T cell activation, but its function in vivo is not well characterized. Here we show that mice deficient in full-length BTLA or its ligand, herpesvirus entry mediator, had increased number of memory CD8(+) T cells. The memory CD8(+) T cell phenotype resulted from a T cell-intrinsic perturbation of the CD8(+) T cell pool. Naive BTLA-deficient CD8(+) T cells were more efficient than wild-type cells at generating memory in a competitive antigen-specific system. This effect was independent of the initial expansion of the responding antigen-specific T cell population. In addition, BTLA negatively regulated antigen-independent homeostatic expansion of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells. These results emphasize two central functions of BTLA in limiting T cell activity in vivo.

Perinatal choline supplementation reveals a dissociation between two types of spatial strategies.

Choline supplementation improving memory functions in rodents is assumed to increase the synthesis and release of acetylcholine in the brain. We have found that a combined pre- and postnatal supplementation results in long-lasting facilitation of spatial memory in juvenile rats when training was conducted in presence of a local salient cue. The present work was aimed at analysing the effects of peri- and postnatal choline supplementation on spatial abilities of naive adult rats. Rats given a perinatal choline supplementation were trained in various cued procedures of the Morris navigation task when aged 5 months. The treatment had a specific effect of reducing the escape latency of the rats when the platform was at a fixed position in space and surrounded by a suspended cue. This effect was associated with an increased spatial bias when the cue and platform were removed. In this condition, the control rats showed impaired spatial discrimination following the removal of the target cue, most likely due to an overshadowing of the distant environmental cues. This impairment was not observed in the treated rats. Further training with the suspended cue at unpredictable places in the pool revealed longer escape latencies in the control than in the treated rats suggesting that this procedure induced a selective perturbation of the normal but not of the treated rats. A special probe trial with the cue at an irrelevant position and no escape platform revealed a significant bias of the control rats toward the cue and of the treated rats toward the uncued spatial escape position. This behavioural dissociation suggests that a salient cue associated with the target induces an alternative "non spatial" guidance strategy in normal rats, with the risk of overshadowing of the more distant spatial cues. In this condition, the choline supplementation facilities a spatial reliance on the cue, that is an overall facilitation of learning a set of spatial relations between several visual cues. As a consequence, the improved escape in presence of the cue is associated with a stronger memory of the spatial position following disappearance of the cue. This and previous observations suggest that a specific spatial attention process relies on the buffering of highly salient visual cues.to facilitate integration of their relative position in the environment.

Oligocene CO2 decline promoted C4 photosynthesis in grasses.

C4 photosynthesis is an adaptation derived from the more common C3 photosynthetic pathway that confers a higher productivity under warm temperature and low atmospheric CO2 concentration [1, 2]. C4 evolution has been seen as a consequence of past atmospheric CO2 decline, such as the abrupt CO2 fall 32-25 million years ago (Mya) [3-6]. This relationship has never been tested rigorously, mainly because of a lack of accurate estimates of divergence times for the different C4 lineages [3]. In this study, we inferred a large phylogenetic tree for the grass family and estimated, through Bayesian molecular dating, the ages of the 17 to 18 independent grass C4 lineages. The first transition from C3 to C4 photosynthesis occurred in the Chloridoideae subfamily, 32.0-25.0 Mya. The link between CO2 decrease and transition to C4 photosynthesis was tested by a novel maximum likelihood approach. We showed that the model incorporating the atmospheric CO2 levels was significantly better than the null model, supporting the importance of CO2 decline on C4 photosynthesis evolvability. This finding is relevant for understanding the origin of C4 photosynthesis in grasses, which is one of the most successful ecological and evolutionary innovations in plant history.