867 resultados para Multi-scale modelling


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One of the global phenomena with threats to environmental health and safety is artisanal mining. There are ambiguities in the manner in which an ore-processing facility operates which hinders the mining capacity of these miners in Ghana. These problems are reviewed on the basis of current socio-economic, health and safety, environmental, and use of rudimentary technologies which limits fair-trade deals to miners. This research sought to use an established data-driven, geographic information (GIS)-based system employing the spatial analysis approach for locating a centralized processing facility within the Wassa Amenfi-Prestea Mining Area (WAPMA) in the Western region of Ghana. A spatial analysis technique that utilizes ModelBuilder within the ArcGIS geoprocessing environment through suitability modeling will systematically and simultaneously analyze a geographical dataset of selected criteria. The spatial overlay analysis methodology and the multi-criteria decision analysis approach were selected to identify the most preferred locations to site a processing facility. For an optimal site selection, seven major criteria including proximity to settlements, water resources, artisanal mining sites, roads, railways, tectonic zones, and slopes were considered to establish a suitable location for a processing facility. Site characterizations and environmental considerations, incorporating identified constraints such as proximity to large scale mines, forest reserves and state lands to site an appropriate position were selected. The analysis was limited to criteria that were selected and relevant to the area under investigation. Saaty’s analytical hierarchy process was utilized to derive relative importance weights of the criteria and then a weighted linear combination technique was applied to combine the factors for determination of the degree of potential site suitability. The final map output indicates estimated potential sites identified for the establishment of a facility centre. The results obtained provide intuitive areas suitable for consideration

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Multi-frequency Eddy Current (EC) inspection with a transmit-receive probe (two horizontally offset coils) is used to monitor the Pressure Tube (PT) to Calandria Tube (CT) gap of CANDU® fuel channels. Accurate gap measurements are crucial to ensure fitness of service; however, variations in probe liftoff, PT electrical resistivity, and PT wall thickness can generate systematic measurement errors. Validated mathematical models of the EC probe are very useful for data interpretation, and may improve the gap measurement under inspection conditions where these parameters vary. As a first step, exact solutions for the electromagnetic response of a transmit-receive coil pair situated above two parallel plates separated by an air gap were developed. This model was validated against experimental data with flat-plate samples. Finite element method models revealed that this geometrical approximation could not accurately match experimental data with real tubes, so analytical solutions for the probe in a double-walled pipe (the CANDU® fuel channel geometry) were generated using the Second-Order Vector Potential (SOVP) formalism. All electromagnetic coupling coefficients arising from the probe, and the layered conductors were determined and substituted into Kirchhoff’s circuit equations for the calculation of the pickup coil signal. The flat-plate model was used as a basis for an Inverse Algorithm (IA) to simultaneously extract the relevant experimental parameters from EC data. The IA was validated over a large range of second layer plate resistivities (1.7 to 174 µΩ∙cm), plate wall thickness (~1 to 4.9 mm), probe liftoff (~2 mm to 8 mm), and plate-to plate gap (~0 mm to 13 mm). The IA achieved a relative error of less than 6% for the extracted FP resistivity and an accuracy of ±0.1 mm for the LO measurement. The IA was able to achieve a plate gap measurement with an accuracy of less than ±0.7 mm error over a ~2.4 mm to 7.5 mm probe liftoff and ±0.3 mm at nominal liftoff (2.42±0.05 mm), providing confidence in the general validity of the algorithm. This demonstrates the potential of using an analytical model to extract variable parameters that may affect the gap measurement accuracy.

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Introduction Quantitative and accurate measurements of fat and muscle in the body are important for prevention and diagnosis of diseases related to obesity and muscle degeneration. Manually segmenting muscle and fat compartments in MR body-images is laborious and time-consuming, hindering implementation in large cohorts. In the present study, the feasibility and success-rate of a Dixon-based MR scan followed by an intensity-normalised, non-rigid, multi-atlas based segmentation was investigated in a cohort of 3,000 subjects. Materials and Methods 3,000 participants in the in-depth phenotyping arm of the UK Biobank imaging study underwent a comprehensive MR examination. All subjects were scanned using a 1.5 T MR-scanner with the dual-echo Dixon Vibe protocol, covering neck to knees. Subjects were scanned with six slabs in supine position, without localizer. Automated body composition analysis was performed using the AMRA Profiler™ system, to segment and quantify visceral adipose tissue (VAT), abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT) and thigh muscles. Technical quality assurance was performed and a standard set of acceptance/rejection criteria was established. Descriptive statistics were calculated for all volume measurements and quality assurance metrics. Results Of the 3,000 subjects, 2,995 (99.83%) were analysable for body fat, 2,828 (94.27%) were analysable when body fat and one thigh was included, and 2,775 (92.50%) were fully analysable for body fat and both thigh muscles. Reasons for not being able to analyse datasets were mainly due to missing slabs in the acquisition, or patient positioned so that large parts of the volume was outside of the field-of-view. Discussion and Conclusions In conclusion, this study showed that the rapid UK Biobank MR-protocol was well tolerated by most subjects and sufficiently robust to achieve very high success-rate for body composition analysis. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource.

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Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

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Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

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A compositional multivariate approach is used to analyse regional scale soil geochemical data obtained as part of the Tellus Project generated by the Geological Survey Northern Ireland (GSNI). The multi-element total concentration data presented comprise XRF analyses of 6862 rural soil samples collected at 20cm depths on a non-aligned grid at one site per 2 km2. Censored data were imputed using published detection limits. Using these imputed values for 46 elements (including LOI), each soil sample site was assigned to the regional geology map provided by GSNI initially using the dominant lithology for the map polygon. Northern Ireland includes a diversity of geology representing a stratigraphic record from the Mesoproterozoic, up to and including the Palaeogene. However, the advance of ice sheets and their meltwaters over the last 100,000 years has left at least 80% of the bedrock covered by superficial deposits, including glacial till and post-glacial alluvium and peat. The question is to what extent the soil geochemistry reflects the underlying geology or superficial deposits. To address this, the geochemical data were transformed using centered log ratios (clr) to observe the requirements of compositional data analysis and avoid closure issues. Following this, compositional multivariate techniques including compositional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and minimum/maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis method were used to determine the influence of underlying geology on the soil geochemistry signature. PCA showed that 72% of the variation was determined by the first four principal components (PC’s) implying “significant” structure in the data. Analysis of variance showed that only 10 PC’s were necessary to classify the soil geochemical data. To consider an improvement over PCA that uses the spatial relationships of the data, a classification based on MAF analysis was undertaken using the first 6 dominant factors. Understanding the relationship between soil geochemistry and superficial deposits is important for environmental monitoring of fragile ecosystems such as peat. To explore whether peat cover could be predicted from the classification, the lithology designation was adapted to include the presence of peat, based on GSNI superficial deposit polygons and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) undertaken. Prediction accuracy for LDA classification improved from 60.98% based on PCA using 10 principal components to 64.73% using MAF based on the 6 most dominant factors. The misclassification of peat may reflect degradation of peat covered areas since the creation of superficial deposit classification. Further work will examine the influence of underlying lithologies on elemental concentrations in peat composition and the effect of this in classification analysis.

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The branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index is based on the relative abundance of branched tetraether lipids (brGDGTs) and the isoprenoidal GDGT crenarchaeol. In Lake Challa sediments the BIT index has been applied as a proxy for local monsoon precipitation on the assumption that the primary source of brGDGTs is soil washed in from the lake's catchment. Since then, microbial production within the water column has been identified as the primary source of brGDGTs in Lake Challa sediments, meaning that either an alternative mechanism links BIT index variation with rainfall or that the proxy's application must be reconsidered. We investigated GDGT concentrations and BIT index variation in Lake Challa sediments at a decadal resolution over the past 2200 years, in combination with GDGT time-series data from 45 monthly sediment-trap samples and a chronosequence of profundal surface sediments.

Our 2200-year geochemical record reveals high-frequency variability in GDGT concentrations, and therefore in the BIT index, superimposed on distinct lower-frequency fluctuations at multi-decadal to century timescales. These changes in BIT index are correlated with changes in the concentration of crenarchaeol but not with those of the brGDGTs. A clue for understanding the indirect link between rainfall and crenarchaeol concentration (and thus thaumarchaeotal abundance) was provided by the observation that surface sediments collected in January 2010 show a distinct shift in GDGT composition relative to sediments collected in August 2007. This shift is associated with increased bulk flux of settling mineral particles with high Ti / Al ratios during March–April 2008, reflecting an event of unusually high detrital input to Lake Challa concurrent with intense precipitation at the onset of the principal rain season that year. Although brGDGT distributions in the settling material are initially unaffected, this soil-erosion event is succeeded by a massive dry-season diatom bloom in July–September 2008 and a concurrent increase in the flux of GDGT-0. Complete absence of crenarchaeol in settling particles during the austral summer following this bloom indicates that no Thaumarchaeota bloom developed at that time. We suggest that increased nutrient availability, derived from the eroded soil washed into the lake, caused the massive bloom of diatoms and that the higher concentrations of ammonium (formed from breakdown of this algal matter) resulted in a replacement of nitrifying Thaumarchaeota, which in typical years prosper during the austral summer, by nitrifying bacteria. The decomposing dead diatoms passing through the suboxic zone of the water column probably also formed a substrate for GDGT-0-producing archaea. Hence, through a cascade of events, intensive rainfall affects thaumarchaeotal abundance, resulting in high BIT index values.

Decade-scale BIT index fluctuations in Lake Challa sediments exactly match the timing of three known episodes of prolonged regional drought within the past 250 years. Additionally, the principal trends of inferred rainfall variability over the past two millennia are consistent with the hydroclimatic history of equatorial East Africa, as has been documented from other (but less well dated) regional lake records. We therefore propose that variation in GDGT production originating from the episodic recurrence of strong soil-erosion events, when integrated over (multi-)decadal and longer timescales, generates a stable positive relationship between the sedimentary BIT index and monsoon rainfall at Lake Challa. Application of this paleoprecipitation proxy at other sites requires ascertaining the local processes which affect the productivity of crenarchaeol by Thaumarchaeota and brGDGTs.

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Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning. 

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This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.

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The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

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A major weakness among loading models for pedestrians walking on flexible structures proposed in recent years is the various uncorroborated assumptions made in their development. This applies to spatio-temporal characteristics of pedestrian loading and the nature of multi-object interactions. To alleviate this problem, a framework for the determination of localised pedestrian forces on full-scale structures is presented using a wireless attitude and heading reference systems (AHRS). An AHRS comprises a triad of tri-axial accelerometers, gyroscopes and magnetometers managed by a dedicated data processing unit, allowing motion in three-dimensional space to be reconstructed. A pedestrian loading model based on a single point inertial measurement from an AHRS is derived and shown to perform well against benchmark data collected on an instrumented treadmill. Unlike other models, the current model does not take any predefined form nor does it require any extrapolations as to the timing and amplitude of pedestrian loading. In order to assess correctly the influence of the moving pedestrian on behaviour of a structure, an algorithm for tracking the point of application of pedestrian force is developed based on data from a single AHRS attached to a foot. A set of controlled walking tests with a single pedestrian is conducted on a real footbridge for validation purposes. A remarkably good match between the measured and simulated bridge response is found, indeed confirming applicability of the proposed framework.

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Green energy and Green technology are the most of the quoted terms in the context of modern science and technology. Technology which is close to nature is the necessity of the modern world which is haunted by global warming and climatic alterations. Proper utilization of solar energy is one of the goals of Green Energy Movement. The present thesis deals with the work carried out in the eld of nanotechnology and its possible use in various applications (employing natural dyes) like solar cells. Unlike arti cial dyes, the natural dyes are available, easy to prepare, low in cost, non-toxic, environmentally friendly and fully biodegradable. Looking to the 21st century, the nano/micro sciences will be a chief contributor to scienti c and technological developments. As nanotechnology progresses and complex nanosystems are fabricated, a growing impetus is being given to the development of multi-functional and size-dependent materials. The control of the morphology, from the nano to the micrometer scales, associated with the incorporation of several functionalities can yield entirely new smart hybrid materials. They are special class of materials which provide a new method for the improvement of the environmental stability of the material with interesting optical properties and opening a land of opportunities for applications in the eld of photonics. Zinc oxide (ZnO) is one such multipurpose material that has been explored for applications in sensing, environmental monitoring, and bio-medical systems and communications technology. Understanding the growth mechanism and tailoring their morphology is essential for the use of ZnO crystals as nano/micro electromechanical systems and also as building blocks of other nanosystems.

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This work represents an original contribution to the methodology for ecosystem models' development as well as the rst attempt of an end-to-end (E2E) model of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE). The main purpose of the developed model is to build a tool for ecosystem-based management and decision making, reason why the credibility of the model is essential, and this can be assessed through confrontation to data. Additionally, the NHCE exhibits a high climatic and oceanographic variability at several scales, the major source of interannual variability being the interruption of the upwelling seasonality by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has direct e ects on larval survival and sh recruitment success. Fishing activity can also be highly variable, depending on the abundance and accessibility of the main shery resources. This context brings the two main methodological questions addressed in this thesis, through the development of an end-to-end model coupling the high trophic level model OSMOSE to the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical model ROMS-PISCES: i) how to calibrate ecosystem models using time series data and ii) how to incorporate the impact of the interannual variability of the environment and shing. First, this thesis highlights some issues related to the confrontation of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration of ecosystem models. We propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria along with the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. Additionally, a new Evolutionary Algorithm designed for the calibration of stochastic models (e.g Individual Based Model) and optimized for maximum likelihood estimation has been developed and applied to the calibration of the OSMOSE model to time series data. The environmental variability is explicit in the model: the ROMS-PISCES model forces the OSMOSE model and drives potential bottom-up e ects up the foodweb through plankton and sh trophic interactions, as well as through changes in the spatial distribution of sh. The latter e ect was taken into account using presence/ absence species distribution models which are traditionally assessed through a confusion matrix and the statistical metrics associated to it. However, when considering the prediction of the habitat against time, the variability in the spatial distribution of the habitat can be summarized and validated using the emerging patterns from the shape of the spatial distributions. We modeled the potential habitat of the main species of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem using several sources of information ( sheries, scienti c surveys and satellite monitoring of vessels) jointly with environmental data from remote sensing and in situ observations, from 1992 to 2008. The potential habitat was predicted over the study period with monthly resolution, and the model was validated using quantitative and qualitative information of the system using a pattern oriented approach. The nal ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE E2E ecosystem model for the NHCE was calibrated using our evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to t monthly time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. To conclude, some potential applications of the model for shery management are presented and their limitations and perspectives discussed.

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In questo lavoro di tesi si presenta il primo studio multi-scala e multi-frequenza focalizzato sul getto della radiogalassia IC1531 (z=0.026) con i satelliti Chandra, XMM-Newton e Fermi con l’obiettivo di tracciarne l’emissione alle alte energie; definire i processi radiativi responsabili dell’emissione osservata e stimare i principali parametri fisici del getto; stimare l’energetica del getto alle diverse scale. La sorgente è stata selezionata per la presenza di un getto esteso (≈5’’) osservato in radio e ai raggi X, inoltre, era riportata come possibile controparte della sorgente gamma 3FGLJ0009.6-3211 presente nel terzo catalogo Fermi (3FGL). La presenza di emissione ai raggi γ, confermata dal nostro studio, è importante per la modellizzazione della SED della regione nucleare. L’emissione X del nucleo è dominata da una componente ben riprodotta da una legge di potenza con indice spettrale Γ=2.2. L’analisi dell’emissione in banda gamma ha evidenziato una variabilità su scale di 5 giorni, dalla quale è stato possibile stimare le dimensioni delle regione emittente. Inoltre viene presentato lo studio della distribuzione spettrale dell’energia della regione nucleare di IC 1531 dalla banda radio ai raggi γ. I modelli ci permettono di determinare la natura dell’emissione gamma e stimare la potenza cinetica del getto a scale del su-pc. Gli osservabili sono stati utilizzati per ottenere le stime sui parametri del modello. La modellizzazione così ottenuta ha permesso di stimare i parametri fisici del getto e la potenza trasportata del getto a scale del sub-pc. Le stime a 151MHz suggerisco che il getto abbia basse velocita' (Γ≤7) e angolo di inclinazione rispetto alla linea di vista 10°<ϑ<20°; nel complesso, il trasporto di energia da parte del getto risulta efficiente. L’origine dell’emissione X del getto a grandi scale è consistente con un’emissione di sincrotrone, che conferma la classificazione di IC1531 come sorgente di bassa potenza MAGN.