The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Difference in mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae) and the transmission of Ross River Virus between coastline and inland areas in Brisbane, Australia

This study examined the distribution of major mosquito species and their roles in the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection for coastline and inland areas in Brisbane, Australia (27°28′ S, 153°2′ E). We obtained data on the monthly counts of RRV cases in Brisbane between November 1998 and December 2001 by statistical local areas from the Queensland Department of Health and the monthly mosquito abundance from the Brisbane City Council. Correlation analysis was used to assess the pairwise relationships between mosquito density and the incidence of RRV disease. This study showed that the mosquito abundance of Aedes vigilax (Skuse), Culex annulirostris (Skuse), and Aedes vittiger (Skuse) were significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRV in the coastline area, whereas Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, and Aedes notoscriptus (Skuse) were significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRV in the inland area. The results of the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis show that both occurrence and incidence of RRV were influenced by interactions between species in both coastal and inland regions. We found that there was an 89% chance for an occurrence of RRV if the abundance of Ae. vigifax was between 64 and 90 in the coastline region. There was an 80% chance for an occurrence of RRV if the density of Cx. annulirostris was between 53 and 74 in the inland area. The results of this study may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control of RRV and other mosquito-borne diseases.

Modelling of operating theatres using simulation

This paper describes the development of a simulation model for operating theatres. Elective patient scheduling is complicated by several factors; stochastic demand for resources due to variation in the nature and severity of a patient’s illness, unexpected complications in a patient’s course of treatment and the arrival of non-scheduled emergency patients which compete for resources. Extend simulation software was used for its ability to represent highly complex systems and analyse model outputs. Patient arrivals and lengths of surgery are determined by analysis of historical data. The model was used to explore the effects increasing patient arrivals and alternative elective patient admission disciplines would have on the performance measures. The model can be used as a decision support system for hospital planners.

Information dependencies between architects and services engineers for early design evaluation : a framework for an energy design tool for architects

Effective strategies for the design of effi cient and environmentally sensitive buildings require a close collaboration between architects and engineers in the design of the building shell and environmental control systems at the outset of projects. However, it is often not practical for engineers to be involved early on in the design process. It is therefore essential that architects be able to perform preliminary energy analyses to evaluate their proposed designs prior to the major building characteristics becoming fi xed. Subsequently, a need exists for a simplifi ed energy design tool for architects. This paper discusses the limitations of existing analysis software in supporting early design explorations and proposes a framework for the development of a tool that provides decision support by permitting architects to quickly assess the performance of design alternatives.

Research project for managing skid resistance is on the road

In December 2006, the Engineering and Technology Group of Queensland’s Department of Main Roads entered into a three-year skid resistance management research project with QUT Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering researchers and the QUT-based CRC for Integrated Engineering Asset Management (CIEAM). CIEAM undertakes a broad range of asset management research in the areas of defence, utilities, transportation and industrial processes. “The research project is an important activity of Main Roads’ Skid Resistance Management Plan published in June 2006.” said Main Roads project leader Mr Justin Weligamage. “The intended project output is a decision-support model for use by Road Asset Managers throughout a road network. The research objective is to enable road asset managers to better manage the surfacing condition of the road asset with specific focus on skid resistance,” said QUT project leader Professor Arun Kumar. The research project will review existing skid resistance investigatory levels, develop a risk-based method to establish skid resistance investigatory levels and improve the decision support methodology in order to minimise crashes. The new risk-based approach will be used to identify locations on the Queensland state-controlled road network that may have inadequate skid resistance. Once a high risk site is identified, the appropriate remedial action will be decided on. This approach will allow road asset managers to target optimal remedial actions, reducing the incidence and severity of crashes where inadequate skid resistance is a contributing cause.

A new and efficient intelligent collaboration scheme for fashion design

Technology-mediated collaboration process has been extensively studied for over a decade. Most applications with collaboration concepts reported in the literature focus on enhancing efficiency and effectiveness of the decision-making processes in objective and well-structured workflows. However, relatively few previous studies have investigated the applications of collaboration schemes to problems with subjective and unstructured nature. In this paper, we explore a new intelligent collaboration scheme for fashion design which, by nature, relies heavily on human judgment and creativity. Techniques such as multicriteria decision making, fuzzy logic, and artificial neural network (ANN) models are employed. Industrial data sets are used for the analysis. Our experimental results suggest that the proposed scheme exhibits significant improvement over the traditional method in terms of the time–cost effectiveness, and a company interview with design professionals has confirmed its effectiveness and significance.

Estimating the latent demand for rail transit : a case study in Perth, Western Australia

This paper presents a study on estimating the latent demand for rail transit in Australian context. Based on travel mode-choice modelling, a two-stage analysis approach is proposed, namely market population identification and mode share estimation. A case study is conducted on Midland-Fremantle rail transit corridor in Perth, Western Australia. The required data mainly include journey-to-work trip data from Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 and work-purpose mode-choice model in Perth Strategic Transport Evaluation Model. The market profile is analysed, such as catchment areas, market population, mode shares, mode specific trip distributions and average trip distances. A numerical simulation is performed to test the sensitivity of the transit ridership to the change of fuel price. A corridor-level transit demand function of fuel price is thus obtained and its characteristics of elasticity are discussed. This study explores a viable approach to developing a decision-support tool for the assessment of short-term impacts of policy and operational adjustments on corridor-level demand for rail transit.

A survey on the relationship between trust and interest similarity in online social networks

A remarkable growth in quantity and popularity of online social networks has been observed in recent years. There is a good number of online social networks exists which have over 100 million registered users. Many of these popular social networks offer automated recommendations to their users. This automated recommendations are normally generated using collaborative filtering systems based on the past ratings or opinions of the similar users. Alternatively, trust among the users in the network also can be used to find the neighbors while making recommendations. To obtain the optimum result, there must be a positive correlation exists between trust and interest similarity. Though the positive relations between trust and interest similarity are assumed and adopted by many researchers; no survey work on real life people’s opinion to support this hypothesis is found. In this paper, we have reviewed the state-of-the-art research work on trust in online social networks and have presented the result of the survey on the relationship between trust and interest similarity. Our result supports the assumed hypothesis of positive relationship between the trust and interest similarity of the users.

Developing trust networks based on user tagging information for recommendation making

Recommender systems are one of the recent inventions to deal with ever growing information overload. Collaborative filtering seems to be the most popular technique in recommender systems. With sufficient background information of item ratings, its performance is promising enough. But research shows that it performs very poor in a cold start situation where previous rating data is sparse. As an alternative, trust can be used for neighbor formation to generate automated recommendation. User assigned explicit trust rating such as how much they trust each other is used for this purpose. However, reliable explicit trust data is not always available. In this paper we propose a new method of developing trust networks based on user’s interest similarity in the absence of explicit trust data. To identify the interest similarity, we have used user’s personalized tagging information. This trust network can be used to find the neighbors to make automated recommendations. Our experiment result shows that the proposed trust based method outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering approach which uses users rating data. Its performance improves even further when we utilize trust propagation techniques to broaden the range of neighborhood.

SimTrust : a new method of trust network generation

Trust can be used for neighbor formation to generate automated recommendations. User assigned explicit rating data can be used for this purpose. However, the explicit rating data is not always available. In this paper we present a new method of generating trust network based on user’s interest similarity. To identify the interest similarity, we use user’s personalized tag information. This trust network can be used to find the neighbors to make automated recommendation. Our experiment result shows that the precision of the proposed method outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering approach.

Managing Trust in Online Social Networks

In recent years, there is a dramatic growth in number and popularity of online social networks. There are many networks available with more than 100 million registered users such as Facebook, MySpace, QZone, Windows Live Spaces etc. People may connect, discover and share by using these online social networks. The exponential growth of online communities in the area of social networks attracts the attention of the researchers about the importance of managing trust in online environment. Users of the online social networks may share their experiences and opinions within the networks about an item which may be a product or service. The user faces the problem of evaluating trust in a service or service provider before making a choice. Recommendations may be received through a chain of friends network, so the problem for the user is to be able to evaluate various types of trust opinions and recommendations. This opinion or recommendation has a great influence to choose to use or enjoy the item by the other user of the community. Collaborative filtering system is the most popular method in recommender system. The task in collaborative filtering is to predict the utility of items to a particular user based on a database of user rates from a sample or population of other users. Because of the different taste of different people, they rate differently according to their subjective taste. If two people rate a set of items similarly, they share similar tastes. In the recommender system, this information is used to recommend items that one participant likes, to other persons in the same cluster. But the collaborative filtering system performs poor when there is insufficient previous common rating available between users; commonly known as cost start problem. To overcome the cold start problem and with the dramatic growth of online social networks, trust based approach to recommendation has emerged. This approach assumes a trust network among users and makes recommendations based on the ratings of the users that are directly or indirectly trusted by the target user.

Trust and reputation management in web-based social network

know personally. They also communicate with other members of the network who are the friends of their friends and may be friends of their friend’s network. They share their experiences and opinions within the social network about an item which may be a product or service. The user faces the problem of evaluating trust in a service or service provider before making a choice. Opinions, reputations and ecommendations will influence users' choice and usage of online resources. Recommendations may be received through a chain of friends of friends, so the problem for the user is to be able to evaluate various types of trust recommendations and reputations. This opinion or ecommendation has a great influence to choose to use or enjoy the item by the other user of the community. Users share information on the level of trust they explicitly assign to other users. This trust can be used to determine while taking decision based on any recommendation. In case of the absence of direct connection of the recommender user, propagated trust could be useful.

Using GIS to visualise and evaluate student travel behaviour

Using GIS to evaluate travel behaviour is an important technique to increase our understanding of the relationship between accessibility and transport demand. In this paper, the activity space concept was used to identify the nature of participation in activities (or lack of it) amongst a group of students using a 2 day travel-activity diary. Three different indicators such as the number of unique locations visited, average daily distance travelled, and average daily activity duration were used to measure the size of activity spaces. These indicators reflect levels of accessibility, personal mobility, and the extent of participation respectively. Multiple regression analyses were used to assess the impacts of students socio-economic status and the spatial characteristics of home location. Although no differences were found in the levels of accessibility and the extent of participation measures, home location with respect to a demand responsive transport (DRT) service was found to be the most important determinant of their mobility patterns. Despite being able to travel longer distances, students who live outside of the DRT service area were found to be temporally excluded from some opportunities. Student activity spaces were also visualised within a GIS environment and a spatial analysis was conducted to underpin the evaluation of the performance of the DRT. This approach was also used to identify the activity spaces of individuals that are geographically excluded from the service. Evaluation of these results indicated that although the service currently covers areas of high demand, 90% of the activity spaces remained un-served by the DRT service. Using this data six new routes were designed to meet the coverage goal of public transport based on a measure of network impedance based on inverse activity density. Following assessment of public transport service coverage, the study was extended using a Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) technique to assess the effect of service provision on patronage.