Risk factors of pneumonia in traumatic spinal-cord-injured patients

Pneumonia is a well-documented and common respiratory infection in patients with acute traumatic spinal cord injuries, and may recur during the course of acute care. Using data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) for Spinal Cord Injury, the incidence, timing, and recurrence of pneumonia were analyzed. The two main objectives were (1) to investigate the time and potential risk factors for the first occurrence of pneumonia using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, and (2) to investigate pneumonia recurrence and its risk factors using a Counting Process model that is a generalization of the Cox Proportional Hazards model. The results from survival analysis suggested that surgery, intubation, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) grade, direct admission to a NACTN site and age (older than 65 or not) were significant risks for first event of pneumonia and multiple events of pneumonia. The significance of this research is that it has the potential to identify patients at the time of admission who are at high risk for the incidence and recurrence of pneumonia. Knowledge and the time of occurrence of pneumonias are important factors for the development of prevention strategies and may also provide some insights into the selection of emerging therapies that compromise the immune system. ^

Breast cancer risk with aromatase inhibition and phytoestrogen-free diet

In this thesis a mouse model was used to examine the effect of pubertal estrogen inhibition and a phytoestrogen-free diet on the development of mammary glands. The study question was does treatment with aromatase inhibitor during puberty increase susceptibility to breast cancer among cohorts that consumed a diet free of phytoestrogens. The study design consisted of a cohort of mice treated with aromatase inhibitor, letrozole, during puberty and a vehicular group that was used as a control. Both groups were fed a diet free of phytoestrogens from the time of weaning until sacrifice during adulthood. The study aimed to assess mammary gland development in terms of breast cancer risk. The methods employed in this research included morphological and histological analysis of mammary glands, as well as estradiol, RNA and protein analysis. The main finding of the study was that mice exposed to aromatase inhibitor during puberty developed mammary glands with specific characteristics suggestive of vulnerability to oncogenesis such as increased lateral branching, increased number of glands, increase ductal hyperplasia, and diminished expression of TGFβ and p27 protein levels. The conclusions suggest that puberty is a critical period in which the mammary gland is susceptible to environmental threats that may result in deleterious epigenetic effects leading to an increased breast cancer risk in adulthood. This study has several public health implications; the most significant is that environmental threats during puberty may result in adverse mammary gland development and that phytoestrogen sources in the diet are necessary for normal maturation of the mammary glands.^

Effect of primary care availability and health insurance coverage on risk and cost of Preventable Hospitalizations in Harris County

Preventable Hospitalizations (PHs) are hospitalizations that can be avoided with appropriate and timely care in the ambulatory setting and hence are closely associated with primary care access in a community. Increased primary care availability and health insurance coverage may increase primary care access, and consequently may be significantly associated with risks and costs of PHs. Objective. To estimate the risk and cost of preventable hospitalizations (PHs); to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs, first alone and then simultaneously; and finally, to estimate the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the burden of PHs among non-elderly adult residents of Harris County. Methods. The study population was residents of Harris County, age 18 to 64, who had at least one hospital discharge in a Texas hospital in 2008. The primary independent variables were availability of primary care physicians, availability of primary care safety net clinics and health insurance coverage. The primary dependent variables were PHs and associated hospitalization costs. The Texas Health Care Information Collection (THCIC) Inpatient Discharge data was used to obtain information on the number and costs of PHs in the study population. Risk of PHs in the study population, as well as average and total costs of PHs were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models and two-step Heckman regression models with log-transformed costs were used to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs respectively, while controlling for individual predisposing, enabling and need characteristics. Predicted PH risk and cost were used to calculate the predicted burden of PHs in the study population and the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the predicted burden. Results. In 2008, hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County had 11,313 PHs and a corresponding PH risk of 8.02%. Congestive heart failure was the most common PH. PHs imposed a total economic burden of $84 billion at an average of $7,449 per PH. Higher primary care safety net availability was significantly associated with the lower risk of PHs in the final risk model, but only in the uninsured. A unit increase in safety net availability led to a 23% decline in PH odds in the uninsured, compared to only a 4% decline in the insured. Higher primary care physician availability was associated with increased PH costs in the final cost model (β=0.0020; p<0.05). Lack of health insurance coverage increased the risk of PH, with the uninsured having 30% higher odds of PHs (OR=1.299; p<0.05), but reduced the cost of a PH by 7% (β=-0.0668; p<0.05). Expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage were associated with a reduction of about $1.6 million in PH burden at the highest level of expansion. Conclusions. Availability of primary care resources and health insurance coverage in hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County are significantly associated with the risk and costs of PHs. Expansions in these primary care access factors can be expected to produce significant reductions in the burden of PHs in Harris County.^

Venous thromboembolism in patients with acute leukemia: Prevalence, incidence, recurrence of thrombosis, risk factors, and impact on survival

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is the third most preventable cardiovascular disease and a growing public health problem in the United States. The incidence of VTE remains high with an annual estimate of more than 600,000 symptomatic events. DVT affects an estimated 2 million American each year with a death toll of 300,000 persons per year from DVT-related PE. Leukemia patients are at high risk for both hemorrhage and thrombosis; however, little is known about thrombosis among acute leukemia patients. The ultimate goal of this dissertation was to obtain deep understanding of thrombotic issue among acute leukemia patients. The dissertation was presented in a format of three papers. First paper mainly looked at distribution and risk factors associated with development of VTE among patients with acute leukemia prior to leukemia treatment. Second paper looked at incidence, risk factors, and impact of VTE on survival of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia during treatment. Third paper looked at recurrence and risk factors for VTE recurrence among acute leukemia patients with an initial episode of VTE. Descriptive statistics, Chi-squared or Fisher's exact test, median test, Mann-Whitney test, logistic regression analysis, Nonparametric Estimation Kaplan-Meier with a log-rank test or Cox model were used when appropriate. Results from analyses indicated that acute leukemia patients had a high prevalence, incidence, and recurrent rate of VTE. Prior history of VTE, obesity, older age, low platelet account, presence of Philadelphia positive ALL, use of oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy, presence of malignancies, and co-morbidities may place leukemia patients at an increased risk for VTE development or recurrence. Interestingly, development of VTE was not associated with a higher risk of death among hospitalized acute leukemia patients.^

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

Trastuzumab use and risk of congestive heart failure in older breast cancer patients

Trastuzumab is a humanized-monoclonal antibody, developed specifically for HER2-neu over-expressed breast cancer patients. Although highly effective and well tolerated, it was reported associated with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) in clinical trial settings (up to 27%). This leaves a gap where, Trastuzumab-related CHF rate in general population, especially older breast cancer patients with long term treatment of Trastuzumab remains unknown. This thesis examined the rates and risk factors associated with Trastuzumab-related CHF in a large population of older breast cancer patients. A retrospective cohort study using the existing Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Medicare linked de-identified database was performed. Breast cancer patients ≥ 66 years old, stage I-IV, diagnosed in 1998-2007, fully covered by Medicare but no HMO within 1-year before and after first diagnosis month, received 1st chemotherapy no earlier than 30 days prior to diagnosis were selected as study cohort. The primary outcome of this study is a diagnosis of CHF after starting chemotherapy but none CHF claims on or before cancer diagnosis date. ICD-9 and HCPCS codes were used to pool the claims for Trastuzumab use, chemotherapy, comorbidities and CHF claims. Statistical analysis including comparison of characteristics, Kaplan-Meier survival estimates of CHF rates for long term follow up, and Multivariable Cox regression model using Trastuzumab as a time-dependent variable were performed. Out of 17,684 selected cohort, 2,037 (12%) received Trastuzumab. Among them, 35% (714 out of 2037) were diagnosed with CHF, compared to 31% (4784 of 15647) of CHF rate in other chemotherapy recipients (p<.0001). After 10 years of follow-up, 65% of Trastuzumab users developed CHF, compared to 47% in their counterparts. After adjusting for patient demographic, tumor and clinical characteristics, older breast cancer patients who used Trastuzumab showed a significantly higher risk in developing CHF than other chemotherapy recipients (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.54 - 1.85). And this risk is increased along with the increment of age (p-value < .0001). Among Trastuzumab users, these covariates also significantly increased the risk of CHF: older age, stage IV, Non-Hispanic black race, unmarried, comorbidities, Anthracyclin use, Taxane use, and lower educational level. It is concluded that, Trastuzumab users in older breast cancer patients had 69% higher risk in developing CHF than non-Trastuzumab users, much higher than the 27% increase reported in younger clinical trial patients. Older age, Non-Hispanic black race, unmarried, comorbidity, combined use with Anthracycline or Taxane also significantly increase the risk of CHF development in older patients treated with Trastuzumab. ^

HIV prevalence and contextual risk-factors among injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Injection drug use is the third most frequent risk factor for new HIV infections in the United States. A dual mode of exposure: unsafe drug using practices and risky sexual behaviors underlies injection drug users' (IDUs) risk for HIV infection. This research study aims to characterize patterns of drug use and sexual behaviors and to examine the social contexts associated with risk behaviors among a sample of injection drug users. ^ This cross-sectional study includes 523 eligible injection drug users from Houston, Texas, recruited into the 2009 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance project. Three separate set of analyses were carried out. First, using latent class analysis (LCA) and maximum likelihood we identified classes of behavior describing levels of HIV risk, from nine drug and sexual behaviors. Second, eight separate multivariable regression models were built to examine the odds of reporting a given risk behavior. We constructed the most parsimonious multivariable model using a manual backward stepwise process. Third, we examined whether HIV serostatus knowledge (self-reported positive, negative, or unknown serostatus) is associated with drug use and sexual HIV risk behaviors. ^ Participants were mostly male, older, and non-Hispanic Black. Forty-two percent of our sample had behaviors putting them at high risk, 25% at moderate risk, and 33% at low risk for HIV infection. Individuals in the High-risk group had the highest probability of risky behaviors, categorized as almost always sharing needles (0.93), seldom using condoms (0.10), reporting recent exchange sex partners (0.90), and practicing anal sex (0.34). We observed that unsafe injecting practices were associated with high risk sexual behaviors. IDUs who shared needles had higher odds of having anal sex (OR=2.89, 95%CI: 1.69-4.92) and unprotected sex (OR=2.66, 95%CI: 1.38-5.10) at last sex. Additionally, homelessness was associated with needle sharing (OR=2.24, 95% CI: 1.34-3.76) and cocaine use was associated with multiple sex partners (OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.07-3.11). Furthermore, twenty-one percent of the sample was unaware of their HIV serostatus. The three groups were not different from each other in terms of drug-use behaviors: always using a new sterile needle, or in sharing needles or drug preparation equipment. However, IDUs unaware of their HIV serostatus were 33% more likely to report having more than three sexual partners in the past 12 months; 45% more likely to report to have unprotected sex and 85% more likely to use drug and or alcohol during or before at last sex compared to HIV-positive IDUs. ^ This analysis underscores the merit of LCA approach to empirically categorize injection drug users into distinct classes and identify their risk pattern using multiple indicators and our results show considerable overlap of high risk sexual and drug use behaviors among the high-risk class members. The observed clustering pattern of drug and sexual risk behavior among this population confirms that injection drug users do not represent a homogeneous population in terms of HIV risk. These findings will help develop tailored prevention programs.^

Frequencies and risk factors for bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw in cancer patients: A matched case-control study

Bisphosphonates represent a unique class of drugs that effectively treat and prevent a variety of bone-related disorders including metastatic bone disease and osteoporosis. High tolerance and high efficacy rates quickly ranked bisphosphonates as the standard of care for bone-related diseases. However, in the early 2000s, case reports began to surface that linked bisphosphonates with osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ). Since that time, studies conducted have corroborated the linkage. However, as with most disease states, many factors can contribute to the onset of disease. The aim of this study was to determine which comorbid factors presented an increased risk for developing ONJ in cancer patients.^ Using a case-control study design, investigators used a combination of ICD-9 codes and chart review to identify confirmed cases of ONJ at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC). Each case was then matched to five controls based on age, gender, race/ethnicity, and primary cancer diagnosis. Data querying and chart review provided information on variables of interest. These variables included bisphosphonate exposure, glucocorticoids exposure, smoking history, obesity, and diabetes. Statistical analysis was conducted using PASW (Predictive Analytics Software) Statistics, Version 18 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois).^ One hundred twelve (112) cases were identified as confirmed cases of ONJ. Variables were run using univariate logistic regression to determine significance (p < .05); significant variables were included in the final conditional logistic regression model. Concurrent use of bisphosphonates and glucocorticoids (OR, 18.60; CI, 8.85 to 39.12; p < .001), current smokers (OR, 2.52; CI, 1.21 to 5.25; p = .014), and presence of diabetes (OR, 1.84; CI, 1.06 to 3.20; p = .030) were found to increase the risk for developing ONJ. Obesity was not associated significantly with ONJ development.^ In this study, cancer patients that received bisphosphonates as part of their therapeutic regimen were found to have an 18-fold increase in their risk of developing ONJ. Other factors included smoking and diabetes. More studies examining the concurrent use of glucocorticoids and bisphosphonates may be able to strengthen any correlations.^

Dengue transmission risk maps of the continental United States

Dengue fever is a strictly human and non-human primate disease characterized by a high fever, thrombocytopenia, retro-orbital pain, and severe joint and muscle pain. Over 40% of the world population is at risk. Recent re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Texas and Florida following the re-introduction of competent Aedes mosquito vectors in the United States have raised growing concerns about the potential for increased occurrences of dengue fever outbreaks throughout the southern United States. Current deficiencies in vector control, active surveillance and awareness among medical practitioners may contribute to a delay in recognizing and controlling a dengue virus outbreak. Previous studies have shown links between low-income census tracts, high population density, and dengue fever within the United States. Areas of low-income and high population density that correlate with the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes result in higher potential for outbreaks. In this retrospective ecologic study, nine maps were generated to model U.S. census tracts’ potential to sustain dengue virus transmission if the virus was introduced into the area. Variables in the model included presence of a competent vector in the county and census tract percent poverty and population density. Thirty states, 1,188 counties, and 34,705 census tracts were included in the analysis. Among counties with Aedes mosquito infestation, the census tracts were ranked high, medium, and low risk potential for sustained transmission of the virus. High risk census tracts were identified as areas having the vector, ≥20% poverty, and ≥500 persons per square mile. Census tracts with either ≥20% poverty or ≥500 persons per square mile and have the vector present are considered moderate risk. Census tracts that have the vector present but have <20% poverty and <500 persons per square mile are considered low risk. Furthermore, counties were characterized as moderate risk if 50% or more of the census tracts in that county were rated high or moderate risk, and high risk if 25% or greater were rated high risk. Extreme risk counties, which were primarily concentrated in Texas and Mississippi, were considered having 50% or greater of the census tracts ranked as high risk. Mapping of geographic areas with potential to sustain dengue virus transmission will support surveillance efforts and assist medical personnel in recognizing potential cases. ^

Effectiveness of Community Case Management in Family Risk Reduction

This study evaluated a modified home-based model of family preservation services, the long-term community case management model, as operationalized by a private child welfare agency that serves as the last resort for hard-to-serve families with children at severe risk of out-of-home placement. The evaluation used a One-Group Pretest-Posttest design with a modified time-series design to determine if the intervention would produce a change over time in the composite score of each family's Child Well-Being Scales (CWBS). A comparison of the mean CWBS scores of the 208 families and subsets of these families at the pretest and various posttests showed a statistically significant decrease in the CWBS scores, indicating decreased risk factors. The longer the duration of services, the greater the statistically significant risk reduction. The results support the conclusion that the families who participate in empowerment-oriented community case management, with the option to extend service duration to resolve or ameliorate chronic family problems, have experienced effective strengthening in family functioning.

UNDERSTANDING INTERRUPTIONS IN HEALTHCARE: DEVELOPING A MODEL

Developing a Model Interruption is a known human factor that contributes to errors and catastrophic events in healthcare as well as other high-risk industries. The landmark Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, To Err is Human, brought attention to the significance of preventable errors in medicine and suggested that interruptions could be a contributing factor. Previous studies of interruptions in healthcare did not offer a conceptual model by which to study interruptions. As a result of the serious consequences of interruptions investigated in other high-risk industries, there is a need to develop a model to describe, understand, explain, and predict interruptions and their consequences in healthcare. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a model grounded in the literature and to use the model to describe and explain interruptions in healthcare. Specifically, this model would be used to describe and explain interruptions occurring in a Level One Trauma Center. A trauma center was chosen because this environment is characterized as intense, unpredictable, and interrupt-driven. The first step in developing the model began with a review of the literature which revealed that the concept interruption did not have a consistent definition in either the healthcare or non-healthcare literature. Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis was used to clarify and define the concept. The analysis led to the identification of five defining attributes which include (1) a human experience, (2) an intrusion of a secondary, unplanned, and unexpected task, (3) discontinuity, (4) externally or internally initiated, and (5) situated within a context. However, before an interruption could commence, five conditions known as antecedents must occur. For an interruption to take place (1) an intent to interrupt is formed by the initiator, (2) a physical signal must pass a threshold test of detection by the recipient, (3) the sensory system of the recipient is stimulated to respond to the initiator, (4) an interruption task is presented to recipient, and (5) the interruption task is either accepted or rejected by v the recipient. An interruption was determined to be quantifiable by (1) the frequency of occurrence of an interruption, (2) the number of times the primary task has been suspended to perform an interrupting task, (3) the length of time the primary task has been suspended, and (4) the frequency of returning to the primary task or not returning to the primary task. As a result of the concept analysis, a definition of an interruption was derived from the literature. An interruption is defined as a break in the performance of a human activity initiated internal or external to the recipient and occurring within the context of a setting or location. This break results in the suspension of the initial task by initiating the performance of an unplanned task with the assumption that the initial task will be resumed. The definition is inclusive of all the defining attributes of an interruption. This is a standard definition that can be used by the healthcare industry. From the definition, a visual model of an interruption was developed. The model was used to describe and explain the interruptions recorded for an instrumental case study of physicians and registered nurses (RNs) working in a Level One Trauma Center. Five physicians were observed for a total of 29 hours, 31 minutes. Eight registered nurses were observed for a total of 40 hours 9 minutes. Observations were made on either the 0700–1500 or the 1500-2300 shift using the shadowing technique. Observations were recorded in the field note format. The field notes were analyzed by a hybrid method of categorizing activities and interruptions. The method was developed by using both a deductive a priori classification framework and by the inductive process utilizing line-byline coding and constant comparison as stated in Grounded Theory. The following categories were identified as relative to this study: Intended Recipient - the person to be interrupted Unintended Recipient - not the intended recipient of an interruption; i.e., receiving a phone call that was incorrectly dialed Indirect Recipient – the incidental recipient of an interruption; i.e., talking with another, thereby suspending the original activity Recipient Blocked – the intended recipient does not accept the interruption Recipient Delayed – the intended recipient postpones an interruption Self-interruption – a person, independent of another person, suspends one activity to perform another; i.e., while walking, stops abruptly and talks to another person Distraction – briefly disengaging from a task Organizational Design – the physical layout of the workspace that causes a disruption in workflow Artifacts Not Available – supplies and equipment that are not available in the workspace causing a disruption in workflow Initiator – a person who initiates an interruption Interruption by Organizational Design and Artifacts Not Available were identified as two new categories of interruption. These categories had not previously been cited in the literature. Analysis of the observations indicated that physicians were found to perform slightly fewer activities per hour when compared to RNs. This variance may be attributed to differing roles and responsibilities. Physicians were found to have more activities interrupted when compared to RNs. However, RNs experienced more interruptions per hour. Other people were determined to be the most commonly used medium through which to deliver an interruption. Additional mediums used to deliver an interruption vii included the telephone, pager, and one’s self. Both physicians and RNs were observed to resume an original interrupted activity more often than not. In most interruptions, both physicians and RNs performed only one or two interrupting activities before returning to the original interrupted activity. In conclusion the model was found to explain all interruptions observed during the study. However, the model will require an even more comprehensive study in order to establish its predictive value.

Metropolitan Observatory for Street Children and Youngsters: A Chilean Experience of an Innovative Model

In Chile, street children and youngsters' situations have changed significantly over the last decades. The Metropolitan Observatory is an innovative organization that makes it possible to follow this velnerable group. The Observatory is becoming a pioneering actor in the subject, thanks to the participative work and agreed consensus of different institutions involved. The aim of this paper is to introduce the innovative cross-sectoral work done by the Metropolitan Observatory for street children and youth.

Instrumental variable method for the causal relationship between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE) and risk of pancreatic cancer

This thesis project is motivated by the potential problem of using observational data to draw inferences about a causal relationship in observational epidemiology research when controlled randomization is not applicable. Instrumental variable (IV) method is one of the statistical tools to overcome this problem. Mendelian randomization study uses genetic variants as IVs in genetic association study. In this thesis, the IV method, as well as standard logistic and linear regression models, is used to investigate the causal association between risk of pancreatic cancer and the circulating levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE). Higher levels of serum sRAGE were found to be associated with a lower risk of pancreatic cancer in a previous observational study (255 cases and 485 controls). However, such a novel association may be biased by unknown confounding factors. In a case-control study, we aimed to use the IV approach to confirm or refute this observation in a subset of study subjects for whom the genotyping data were available (178 cases and 177 controls). Two-stage IV method using generalized method of moments-structural mean models (GMM-SMM) was conducted and the relative risk (RR) was calculated. In the first stage analysis, we found that the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2070600 of the receptor for advanced glycation end-products (AGER) gene meets all three general assumptions for a genetic IV in examining the causal association between sRAGE and risk of pancreatic cancer. The variant allele of SNP rs2070600 of the AGER gene was associated with lower levels of sRAGE, and it was neither associated with risk of pancreatic cancer, nor with the confounding factors. It was a potential strong IV (F statistic = 29.2). However, in the second stage analysis, the GMM-SMM model failed to converge due to non- concaveness probably because of the small sample size. Therefore, the IV analysis could not support the causality of the association between serum sRAGE levels and risk of pancreatic cancer. Nevertheless, these analyses suggest that rs2070600 was a potentially good genetic IV for testing the causality between the risk of pancreatic cancer and sRAGE levels. A larger sample size is required to conduct a credible IV analysis.^

The risk prediction for SPM and its impact on the survival in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth common malignancy in the world, with high rates of developing second primary malignancy (SPM) and moderately low survival rates. This disease has become an enormous challenge in the cancer research and treatments. For HNSCC patients, a highly significant cause of post-treatment mortality and morbidity is the development of SPM. Hence, assessment of predicting the risk for the development of SPM would be very helpful for patients, clinicians and policy makers to estimate the survival of patients with HNSCC. In this study, we built a prognostic model to predict the risk of developing SPM in patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC. The dataset used in this research was obtained from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. For the first aim, we used stepwise logistic regression to identify the prognostic factors for the development of SPM. Our final model contained cancer site and overall cancer stage as our risk factors for SPM. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p-value= 0.15>0.05) showed the final prognostic model fit the data well. The area under the ROC curve was 0.72 that suggested the discrimination ability of our model was acceptable. The internal validation confirmed the prognostic model was a good fit and the final prognostic model would not over optimistically predict the risk of SPM. This model needs external validation by using large data sample size before it can be generalized to predict SPM risk for other HNSCC patients. For the second aim, we utilized a multistate survival analysis approach to estimate the probability of death for HNSCC patients taking into consideration of the possibility of SPM. Patients without SPM were associated with longer survival. These findings suggest that the development of SPM could be a predictor of survival rates among the patients with HNSCC.^

Risk factors for surgical site infections among patients undergoing major colon surgery in the United States 2007-2009

Background: Surgical site infections (SSIs) after abdominal surgeries account for approximately 26% of all reported SSIs. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines 3 types of SSIs: superficial incisional, deep incisional, and organ/space. Preventing SSIs has become a national focus. This dissertation assesses several associations with the individual types of SSI in patients that have undergone colon surgery. ^ Methods: Data for this dissertation was obtained from the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP); major colon surgeries were identified in the database that occurred between the time period of 2007 and 2009. NSQIP data includes more than 50 preoperative and 30 intraoperative factors; 40 collected postoperative occurrences are based on a follow-up period of 30 days from surgery. Initially, four individual logistic regressions were modeled to compare the associations between risk factors and each of the SSI groups: superficial, deep, organ/space and a composite of any single SSI. A second analysis used polytomous regression to assess simultaneously the associations between risk factors and the different types of SSIs, as well as, formally test the different effect estimates of 13 common risk factors for SSIs. The final analysis explored the association between venous thromboembolism (VTEs) and the different types of SSIs and risk factors. ^ Results: A total of 59,365 colon surgeries were included in the study. Overall, 13% of colon cases developed a single type of SSI; 8% of these were superficial SSIs, 1.4% was deep SSIs, and 3.8% were organ/space SSIs. The first article identifies the unique set of risk factors associated with each of the 4 SSI models. Distinct risk factors for superficial SSIs included factors, such as alcohol, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyspnea and diabetes. Organ/space SSIs were uniquely associated with disseminated cancer, preoperative dialysis, preoperative radiation treatment, bleeding disorder and prior surgery. Risk factors that were significant in all models had different effect estimates. The second article assesses 13 common SSI risk factors simultaneously across the 3 different types of SSIs using polytomous regression. Then each risk factor was formally tested for the effect heterogeneity exhibited. If the test was significant the final model would allow for the effect estimations for that risk factor to vary across each type of SSI; if the test was not significant, the effect estimate would remain constant across the types of SSIs using the aggregate SSI value. The third article explored the relationship of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and the individual types of SSIs and risk factors. The overall incidence of VTEs after the 59,365 colon cases was 2.4%. All 3 types of SSIs and several risk factors were independently associated with the development of VTEs. ^ Conclusions: Risk factors associated with each type of SSI were different in patients that have undergone colon surgery. Each model had a unique cluster of risk factors. Several risk factors, including increased BMI, duration of surgery, wound class, and laparoscopic approach, were significant across all 4 models but no statistical inferences can be made about their different effect estimates. These results suggest that aggregating SSIs may misattribute and hide true associations with risk factors. Using polytomous regression to assess multiple risk factors with the multiple types of SSI, this study was able to identify several risk factors that had significant effect heterogeneity across the 3 types of SSI challenging the use of aggregate SSI outcomes. The third article recognizes the strong association between VTEs and the 3 types of SSIs. Clinicians understand the difference between superficial, deep and organ/space SSIs. Our results indicate that they should be considered individually in future studies.^