Issues of robustness and high dimensionality in cluster analysis

Finite mixture models are being increasingly used to model the distributions of a wide variety of random phenomena. While normal mixture models are often used to cluster data sets of continuous multivariate data, a more robust clustering can be obtained by considering the t mixture model-based approach. Mixtures of factor analyzers enable model-based density estimation to be undertaken for high-dimensional data where the number of observations n is very large relative to their dimension p. As the approach using the multivariate normal family of distributions is sensitive to outliers, it is more robust to adopt the multivariate t family for the component error and factor distributions. The computational aspects associated with robustness and high dimensionality in these approaches to cluster analysis are discussed and illustrated.

Modelling of non-stationary processes using radial basis function networks

This paper reports preliminary progress on a principled approach to modelling nonstationary phenomena using neural networks. We are concerned with both parameter and model order complexity estimation. The basic methodology assumes a Bayesian foundation. However to allow the construction of pragmatic models, successive approximations have to be made to permit computational tractibility. The lowest order corresponds to the (Extended) Kalman filter approach to parameter estimation which has already been applied to neural networks. We illustrate some of the deficiencies of the existing approaches and discuss our preliminary generalisations, by considering the application to nonstationary time series.

A generative model for separating illumination and reflectance from images

It is well known that even slight changes in nonuniform illumination lead to a large image variability and are crucial for many visual tasks. This paper presents a new ICA related probabilistic model where the number of sources exceeds the number of sensors to perform an image segmentation and illumination removal, simultaneously. We model illumination and reflectance in log space by a generalized autoregressive process and Hidden Gaussian Markov random field, respectively. The model ability to deal with segmentation of illuminated images is compared with a Canny edge detector and homomorphic filtering. We apply the model to two problems: synthetic image segmentation and sea surface pollution detection from intensity images.

A three dimensional surface measurement and reconstruction system for respiratory function analysis

Respiration is a complex activity. If the relationship between all neurological and skeletomuscular interactions was perfectly understood, an accurate dynamic model of the respiratory system could be developed and the interaction between different inputs and outputs could be investigated in a straightforward fashion. Unfortunately, this is not the case and does not appear to be viable at this time. In addition, the provision of appropriate sensor signals for such a model would be a considerable invasive task. Useful quantitative information with respect to respiratory performance can be gained from non-invasive monitoring of chest and abdomen motion. Currently available devices are not well suited in application for spirometric measurement for ambulatory monitoring. A sensor matrix measurement technique is investigated to identify suitable sensing elements with which to base an upper body surface measurement device that monitors respiration. This thesis is divided into two main areas of investigation; model based and geometrical based surface plethysmography. In the first instance, chapter 2 deals with an array of tactile sensors that are used as progression of existing and previously investigated volumetric measurement schemes based on models of respiration. Chapter 3 details a non-model based geometrical approach to surface (and hence volumetric) profile measurement. Later sections of the thesis concentrate upon the development of a functioning prototype sensor array. To broaden the application area the study has been conducted as it would be fore a generically configured sensor array. In experimental form the system performance on group estimation compares favourably with existing system on volumetric performance. In addition provides continuous transient measurement of respiratory motion within an acceptable accuracy using approximately 20 sensing elements. Because of the potential size and complexity of the system it is possible to deploy it as a fully mobile ambulatory monitoring device, which may be used outside of the laboratory. It provides a means by which to isolate coupled physiological functions and thus allows individual contributions to be analysed separately. Thus facilitating greater understanding of respiratory physiology and diagnostic capabilities. The outcome of the study is the basis for a three-dimensional surface contour sensing system that is suitable for respiratory function monitoring and has the prospect with future development to be incorporated into a garment based clinical tool.

Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Meta-analysis of the population and phenotypic expression of CYP2C9/2C19 polymorphism on drug metabolism in different ethnicities

The term "pharmacogenetics" has been defined as the scientific study of inherited factors that affect the human drug response. Many pharmacogenetie studies have been published since 1995 and have focussed on the principal enzyme family involved in drug metabolism, the cytochrome P450 family, particularly cytochrome P4502C9 and 2C19. In order to investigate the pharmacogenetic aspect of pharmacotherapy, the relevant studies describing the association of pharmacogenetic factor(s) in drug responses must be retrieved from existing literature using a systematic review approach. In addition, the estimation of variant allele prevalence for the gene under study between different ethnic populations is important for pharmacogenetic studies. In this thesis, the prevalence of CYP2C9/2C19 alleles between different ethnicities has been estimated through meta-analysis and the population genetic principle. The clinical outcome of CYP2C9/2C19 allelic variation on the pharmacotherapy of epilepsy has been investigated; although many new antiepileptic drugs have been launched into the market, carbamazepine, phenobarbital and phenytoin are still the major agents in the pharmacotherapy of epilepsy. Therefore, phenytoin was chosen as a model AED and the effect of CYP2C9/2C19 genetic polymorphism on phenytoin metabolism was further examined.An estimation of the allele prevalence was undertaken for three CYP2C9/2C19 alleles respectively using a meta-analysis of studies that fit the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The prevalence of CYP2C9*1 is approximately 81%, 96%, 97% and 94% in Caucasian, Chinese, Japanese, African populations respectively; the pooled prevalence of CYP2C19*1 is about 86%, 57%, 58% and 85% in these ethnic populations respectively. However, the studies of association between CYP2C9/2C19 polymorphism and phenytoin metabolism failed to achieve any qualitative or quantitative conclusion. Therefore, mephenytoin metabolism was examined as a probe drug for association between CYP2C19 polymorphism and mephenytoin metabolic ratio. Similarly, analysis of association between CYP2C9 polymorphism and warfarin dose requirement was undertaken.It was confirmed that subjects carrying two mutated CYP2C19 alleles have higher S/R mephenytoin ratio due to deficient CYP2C19 enzyme activity. The studies of warfarin and CYP2C9 polymorphism did not provide a conclusive result due to poor comparability between studies.The genetic polymorphism of drug metabolism enzymes has been studied extensively, however other genetic factors, such as multiple drug resistance genes (MDR) and genes encoding ion channels, which may contribute to variability in function of drug transporters and targets, require more attention in future pharmacogenetic studies of antiepileptic drugs.

Evaluation and development of drainage and pipeline construction processes

In 1974 Dr D M Bramwell published his research work at the University of Aston a part of which was the establishment of an elemental work study data base covering drainage construction. The Transport and Road Research Laboratory decided to, extend that work as part of their continuing research programme into the design and construction of buried pipelines by placing a research contract with Bryant Construction. This research may be considered under two broad categories. In the first, site studies were undertaken to validate and extend the data base. The studies showed good agreement with the existing data with the exception of the excavation trench shoring and pipelaying data which was amended to incorporate new construction plant and methods. An inter-active on-line computer system for drainage estimating was developed. This system stores the elemental data, synthesizes the standard time of each drainage operation and is used to determine the required resources and construction method of the total drainage activity. The remainder of the research was into the general topic of construction efficiency. An on-line command driven computer system was produced. This system uses a stochastic simulation technique, based on distributions of site efficiency measurements to evaluate the effects of varying performance levels. The analysis of this performance data quantities the variability inherent in construction and demonstrates how some of this variability can be reconciled by considering the characteristics of a contract. A long term trend of decreasing efficiency with contract duration was also identified. The results obtained from the simulation suite were compared to site records collected from current contracts. This showed that this approach will give comparable answers, but these are greatly affected by the site performance parameters.

Wealth effects of mergers and acquisitions for US firms: using alternative pricing models

This empirical study employs a different methodology to examine the change in wealth associated with mergers and acquisitions (M&As) for US firms. Specifically, we employ the standard CAPM, the Fama-French three-factor model and the Carhart four-factor models within the OLS and GJR-GARCH estimation methods to test the behaviour of the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs). Whilst the standard CAPM captures the variability of stock returns with the overall market, the Fama-French factors capture the risk factors that are important to investors. Additionally, augmenting the Fama-French three-factor model with the Carhart momentum factor to generate the four-factor captures additional pricing elements that may affect stock returns. Traditionally, estimates of abnormal returns (ARs) in M&As situations rely on the standard OLS estimation method. However, the standard OLS will provide inefficient estimates of the ARs if the data contain ARCH and asymmetric effects. To minimise this problem of estimation efficiency we re-estimated the ARs using GJR-GARCH estimation method. We find that there is variation in the results both as regards the choice models and estimation methods. Besides these variations in the estimated models and the choice of estimation methods, we also tested whether the ARs are affected by the degree of liquidity of the stocks and the size of the firm. We document significant positive post-announcement cumulative ARs (CARs) for target firm shareholders under both the OLS and GJR-GARCH methods across all three methodologies. However, post-event CARs for acquiring firm shareholders were insignificant for both sets of estimation methods under the three methodologies. The GJR-GARCH method seems to generate larger CARs than those of the OLS method. Using both market capitalization and trading volume as a measure of liquidity and the size of the firm, we observed strong return continuations in the medium firms relative to small and large firms for target shareholders. We consistently observed market efficiency in small and large firm. This implies that target firms for small and large firms overreact to new information resulting in a more efficient market. For acquirer firms, our measure of liquidity captures strong return continuations for small firms under the OLS estimates for both CAPM and Fama-French three-factor models, whilst under the GJR-GARCH estimates only for Carhart model. Post-announcement bootstrapping simulated CARs confirmed our earlier results.

Perception of risk, feelings of vulnerability and effects on driving behaviour in women drivers across the lifespan.

Sustained driving in older age has implications for quality of life and mental health. Studies have shown that despite the recognised importance of driving in maintaining health and social engagement, many women give up driving prematurely or adopt self-imposed restrictive driving practices. Emotional responses to driving have been implicated in these decisions. This research examined the effect of risk perception and feelings of vulnerability on women’s driving behaviour across the lifespan. It also developed and tested a modified theory of planned behaviour intervention to positively affect driving habits. The first two studies (N=395) used quantitative analysis to model driving behaviours affected by risk perception and feelings of vulnerability, and established that feelings of vulnerability do indeed affect women’s driving behaviour, specifically resulting in increases in driving avoidance and the adoption of maladaptive driving styles. Further, that self-regulation, conceptualised as avoidance, is used by drivers across the lifespan. Qualitative analysis of focus group data (N=48) in the third study provided a deeper understanding of the variations in coping behaviours adopted by sub-groups of drivers and extended the definition of self-regulation to incorporate adaptive coping strategies. The next study (N=64) reported the construction and preliminary validation of the novel self-regulation index (SRI) to measure wider self-regulation behaviours using an objective measure of driving behaviour, a simulated driving task. The understanding gained from the formative research was used in the final study, an extended theory of planned behaviour intervention to promote wider self-regulation behaviour, measured using the previously validated self-regulation index. The intervention achieved moderate success with changes in affective attitude and normative beliefs as well as self-reported behaviour. The results offer promise for self-regulation, incorporating a spectrum of planning and coping behaviours, to be used as a mechanism to assist drivers in achieving their personal mobility goals whilst promoting safe driving.

Servitization and enterprization in the construction industry:the case of a specialist subcontractor

The current economic climate and a continuing fall in output of the UK construction industry has led to falling prices and margins particularly affecting those lower down in the supply chain such as specialist subcontractors. Coen Ltd. is one such company based in the West Midlands. Faced with a need to up its game it has embarked on a business improvement programme concentrating on better operational efficiency, building stronger client relationships and delivering value added services. Lacking appropriate internal resources Coen has joined with Aston Business School in a 2 year ERDF sponsored project to fulfil the transformation programme. The paper will describe the evolution of product- service offerings in construction and link this with the work being carried out at Coen with Aston and outline the anticipated outcomes.

Illiquidity shocks and the comovement between stocks:new evidence using smooth transition

This paper extends the smooth transition conditional correlation model by studying for the first time the impact that illiquidity shocks have on stock market return comovement. We show that firms that experience shocks that increase illiquidity are less liquid than firms that experience shocks that decrease illiquidity. Shocks that increase illiquidity have no statistical impact on comovement. However, shocks that reduce illiquidity lead to a fall in comovement, a pattern that becomes stronger as the illiquidity of the firm increases. This discovery is consistent with increased transparency and an improvement in price efficiency. We find that a small number of firms experience a double illiquidity shock. For these firms, at the first shock, a rise in illiquidity reduces comovement while a fall in illiquidity raises comovement. The second shock partly reverses these changes as a rise in illiquidity is associated with a rise in comovement and a fall in illiquidity is associated with a fall in comovement. These results have important implications for portfolio construction and also for the measurement and evolution of market beta and the cost of capital as it suggests that investors can achieve higher returns for the same amount of market risk because of the greater diversification benefits that exist. We also find that illiquidity, friction, firm size and the pre-shock correlation are all associated with the magnitude of the correlation change. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Parametric Identification and Diagnosis of Integrated Navigation Systems in Bench Test Process

Growth of complexity and functional importance of integrated navigation systems (INS) leads to high losses at the equipment refusals. The paper is devoted to the INS diagnosis system development, allowing identifying the cause of malfunction. The proposed solutions permit taking into account any changes in sensors dynamic and accuracy characteristics by means of the appropriate error models coefficients. Under actual conditions of INS operation, the determination of current values of the sensor models and estimation filter parameters rely on identification procedures. The results of full-scale experiments are given, which corroborate the expediency of INS error models parametric identification in bench test process.

A gloss composition and context clustering based distributed word sense representation model

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in learning a distributed representation of word sense. Traditional context clustering based models usually require careful tuning of model parameters, and typically perform worse on infrequent word senses. This paper presents a novel approach which addresses these limitations by first initializing the word sense embeddings through learning sentence-level embeddings from WordNet glosses using a convolutional neural networks. The initialized word sense embeddings are used by a context clustering based model to generate the distributed representations of word senses. Our learned representations outperform the publicly available embeddings on half of the metrics in the word similarity task, 6 out of 13 sub tasks in the analogical reasoning task, and gives the best overall accuracy in the word sense effect classification task, which shows the effectiveness of our proposed distributed distribution learning model.

Effect of Cu and Sn promotion on the catalytic deoxygenation of model and algal lipids to fuel-like hydrocarbons over supported Ni catalysts

The ability of Cu and Sn to promote the performance of a 20% Ni/Al2O3 catalyst in the deoxygenation of lipids to fuel-like hydrocarbons was investigated using model triglyceride and fatty acid feeds, as well as algal lipids. In the semi-batch deoxygenation of tristearin at 260 °C a pronounced promotional effect was observed, a 20% Ni-5% Cu/Al2O3 catalyst affording both higher conversion (97%) and selectivity to C10-C17 alkanes (99%) in comparison with unpromoted 20% Ni/Al2O3 (27% conversion and 87% selectivity to C10-C17). In the same reaction at 350 °C, a 20% Ni-1% Sn/Al2O3 catalyst afforded the best results, giving yields of C10-C17 and C17 of 97% and 55%, respectively, which contrasts with the corresponding values of 87 and 21% obtained over 20% Ni/Al2O3. Equally encouraging results were obtained in the semi-batch deoxygenation of stearic acid at 300 °C, in which the 20% Ni-5% Cu/Al2O3 catalyst afforded the highest yields of C10-C17 and C17. Experiments were also conducted at 260 °C in a fixed bed reactor using triolein − a model unsaturated triglyceride − as the feed. While both 20% Ni/Al2O3 and 20% Ni-5% Cu/Al2O3 achieved quantitative yields of diesel-like hydrocarbons at all reaction times sampled, the Cu-promoted catalyst exhibited higher selectivity to longer chain hydrocarbons, a phenomenon which was also observed in experiments involving algal lipids as the feed. Characterization of fresh and spent catalysts indicates that Cu enhances the reducibility of Ni and suppresses both cracking reactions and coke-induced deactivation.

Corporate identity at the stakeholder group level:a conceptual model of front-line employee corporate identity

There is a paucity of literature regarding the construction and operation of corporate identity at the stakeholder group level. This article examines corporate identity from the perspective of an individual stakeholder group, namely, front-line employees. A stakeholder group that is central to the development of an organization’s corporate identity as it spans an organization’s boundaries, frequently interacts with both internal and external stakeholders, and influences a firm’s financial performance by building customer loyalty and satisfaction. The article reviews the corporate identity, branding, services and social identity literatures to address how corporate identity manifests within the front-line employee stakeholder group, identifying what components comprise front-line employee corporate identity and assessing what contribution front-line employees make to constructing a strong and enduring corporate identity for an organization. In reviewing the literature the article develops propositions that, in conjunction with a conceptual model, constitute the generation of theory that is recommended for empirical testing.