A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Metabolic response to a mixed meal in obese and lean women from two South African populations

Objective Lower lipid and insulin levels are found during a glucose-tolerance test in obese black than obese white South African women. Therefore, β-cell function and lipid metabolism were compared in these populations during a mixed meal. Research Methods and Procedures Blood concentrations of glucose, free fatty acids (FFAs), insulin, lipograms, and in vivo FFA oxidation were determined at fasting and for 7 hours after oral administration of a mixed emulsion containing glucose-casein-sucrose-lipid and [1-13C] palmitic acid in 8 lean black women (LBW), 10 obese black women (OBW), 9 lean white women (LWW), and 10 obese white women (OWW). Subcutaneous and visceral fat mass was assessed by computerized tomography. Results Visceral fat area was higher in OWW (152.7 ± 17.0 cm2) than OBW (80.0 ± 6.7 cm2; p < 0.01). In OBW, 30-minute insulin levels were higher (604.3 ± 117.6 pM) than OWW (311.0 ± 42.9 pM; p < 0.05). Total triglyceride was higher in OWW (706.7 ± 96.0 mM × 7 hours) than OBW (465.7 ± 48.2 mM × 7 hours; p < 0.05) and correlated with visceral fat area (β = 0.38, p = 0.05). Palmitate oxidation was higher in lean than obese women in both ethnic groups and correlated negatively with fat mass (β = −0.58, p < 0.005). Discussion The higher 30-minute insulin response in OBW may reflect a higher insulinotropic effect of FFAs or glucose. The elevated triglyceride level of OWW may be due to their higher visceral fat mass and possibly reduced clearance by adipose tissue.

Organisational culture, leadership behaviour and job satisfaction among primary health care professionals in Saudi Arabia : a mixed-methods study

The purpose of this study was to improve individual and organisational performance in primary health care (PHC) by identifying the relationship between organisational culture, leadership behaviour and job satisfaction. The study used a sequential explanatory mixed methods design, to investigate the relationships between organisational culture, leadership behaviour, and job satisfaction among 550 PHCC professionals in Saudi Arabia. From surveying the PHC professionals, the results highlighted the importance of human caring qualities, including praise and recognition, consideration, and support, with respect to their perceptions of job satisfaction, leadership behaviour, and organisational culture. As a consequence a management framework was proposed to address these issues.

Design of a nonlinear excitation controller using inverse filtering for transient stability enhancement

This paper proposes a nonlinear excitation controller to improve transient stability, oscillation damping and voltage regulation of the power system. The energy function of the predicted system states is used to obtain the desired flux for the next time step, which in turn is used to obtain a supplementary control input using an inverse filtering method. The inverse filtering technique enables the system to provide an additional input for the excitation system, which forces the system to track the desired flux. Synchronous generator flux saturation model is used in this paper. A single machine infinite bus (SMIB) test system is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed control method using time-domain simulations. The robustness of the controller is assessed under different operating conditions.

Complementary surface-enhanced resonance raman spectroscopic biodetection of mixed protein solutions by chitosan- and silica-coated plasmon-tuned silver nanoparticles

Silver nanoparticles with identical plasmonic properties but different surface functionalities are synthesized and tested as chemically selective surface-enhanced resonance Raman (SERR) amplifiers in a two-component protein solution. The surface plasmon resonances of the particles are tuned to 413 nm to match the molecular resonance of protein heme cofactors. Biocompatible functionalization of the nanoparticles with a thin film of chitosan yields selective SERR enhancement of the anionic protein cytochrome b5, whereas functionalization with SiO2 amplifies only the spectra of the cationic protein cytochrome c. As a result, subsequent addition of the two differently functionalized particles yields complementary information on the same mixed protein sample solution. Finally, the applicability of chitosan-coated Ag nanoparticles for protein separation was tested by in situ resonance Raman spectroscopy.

Wood density : a tool to find complementary species for the design of mixed species plantations

The successful establishment and growth of mixed-species forest plantations requires that complementary or facilitatory species be identified. This can be difficult in many tropical areas because the growth characteristics of endemic species are often unknown, particularly when grown at potentially higher densities in plantations than in natural forests. Here, we investigate whether wood density is a useful and readily accessible trait for choosing complementary species for mixed species plantations. Wood density represents the carbon investment per unit volume of stem with a trade-off generally found between fast (low wood density) and slow (high wood density) growing species. To do this, we use data collected from 18 highly diverse mixed species plantations (4–23 mostly native species) aged from 6 to 11 years at the time of data collection located on Leyte Island, Philippines. We found significant negative correlations between wood densities and the height of the most abundant species, as well as with measures of overall stand growth and tree diameter size distribution. Not only do species with denser woods have slower growth rates, but also mixed-species plantations with higher average wood density and higher stem density were also less productive, at least in these young plantations. Similarly, stands with a high diversity in wood densities were less productive. There is growing interest in making greater use of native multi-species mixtures in smallholder and community planting programs in the tropics, and our results show databases of wood density values may help improve their design. In the early development stages of plantations, canopy closure and rapid height growth are usually key silvicultural targets, and wood density values can predict the rapid height development of species. If plantations are being grown for the livelihood of small landholders then the best target is to choose some species with different wood densities. This allows an early harvest of low-wood density species for early income, and will also reduce competition for slower growing trees with higher wood densities for later income generation.

Using qualitative mixed methods to study small health care organizations while maximising trustworthiness and authenticity

Background The primary health care sector delivers the majority of health care in western countries through small, community-based organizations. However, research into these healthcare organizations is limited by the time constraints and pressure facing them, and the concern by staff that research is peripheral to their work. We developed Q-RARA—Qualitative Rapid Appraisal, Rigorous Analysis—to study small, primary health care organizations in a way that is efficient, acceptable to participants and methodologically rigorous. Methods Q-RARA comprises a site visit, semi-structured interviews, structured and unstructured observations, photographs, floor plans, and social scanning data. Data were collected over the course of one day per site and the qualitative analysis was integrated and iterative. Results We found Q-RARA to be acceptable to participants and effective in collecting data on organizational function in multiple sites without disrupting the practice, while maintaining a balance between speed and trustworthiness. Conclusions The Q-RARA approach is capable of providing a richly textured, rigorous understanding of the processes of the primary care practice while also allowing researchers to develop an organizational perspective. For these reasons the approach is recommended for use in small-scale organizations both within and outside the primary health care sector.

Onset of transition in mixed convection of a lid-driven trapezoidal enclosure filled with water-Al2O3 nanofluid

A numerical study is carried out to investigate the transition from laminar to chaos in mixed convection heat transfer inside a lid-driven trapezoidal enclosure. In this study, the top wall is considered as isothermal cold surface, which is moving in its own plane at a constant speed, and a constant high temperature is provided at the bottom surface. The enclosure is assumed to be filled with water-Al2O3 nanofluid. The governing Navier–Stokes and thermal energy equations are expressed in non-dimensional forms and are solved using Galerkin finite element method. Attention is paid in the present study on the pure mixed convection regime at Richandson number, Ri = 1. The numerical simulations are carried out over a wide range of Reynolds (0.1 ≤ Re ≤ 103) and Grashof (0.01 ≤ Gr ≤ 106) numbers. Effects of the presence of nanofluid on the characteristics of mixed convection heat transfer are also explored. The average Nusselt numbers of the heated wall are computed to demonstrate the influence of flow parameter variations on heat transfer. The corresponding change of flow and thermal fields is visualized from the streamline and the isotherm contour plots.

Contributions to Bayesian experimental design

This thesis progresses Bayesian experimental design by developing novel methodologies and extensions to existing algorithms. Through these advancements, this thesis provides solutions to several important and complex experimental design problems, many of which have applications in biology and medicine. This thesis consists of a series of published and submitted papers. In the first paper, we provide a comprehensive literature review on Bayesian design. In the second paper, we discuss methods which may be used to solve design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points. The third paper presents methods for finding fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, and the fourth paper investigates methods to rapidly approximate the posterior distribution for use in Bayesian utility functions.

Analyzing busway station potential capacity under mixed stopping and non-stopping operation

Busway stations are the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses manoeuvring into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on busway capacity. This study uses microscopic simulation to treat the busway station operation and to analyse the relationship between station potential capacity where all buses stop, and Mixed Potential Capacity where there is a mixture of stopping and non-stopping buses. First, the micro simulation technique is used to analyze the All Stopping Buses (ASB) scenario and then statistical model is tuned and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics Subsequently, a mathematical model is developed for Mixed Stopping Buses (MSB) Potential Capacity by introducing different proportions of express (or non-stopping) buses. The proposed models for a busway station bus capacity provide a better understanding of operation and are useful to transit agencies in busway planning, design and operation.

Analysing busway station capacity under mixed stopping and non-stopping operation

Busway stations are the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses manoeuvring into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on busway capacity. This study uses microscopic simulation to treat the busway station operation and to analyse the relationship between station potential capacity where all buses stop, and Mixed Potential Capacity where there is a mixture of stopping and non-stopping buses. First, the micro simulation technique is used to analyze the All Stopping Buses (ASB) scenario and then statistical model is tuned and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics Subsequently, a mathematical model is developed for Mixed Stopping Buses (MSB) Potential Capacity by introducing different proportions of express (or non-stopping) buses. The proposed models for a busway station bus capacity provide a better understanding of operation and are useful to transit agencies in busway planning, design and operation.