934 resultados para Millionaire Problem, Efficiency, Verifiability, Zero Test, Batch Equation


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In this thesis I analyzed the microwave tomography method to recognize breast can- cer. I study how identify the dielectric permittivity, the Helmoltz equation parameter used to model the real physic problem. Through a non linear least squares method I solve a problem of parameters identification; I show the theoric approach and the devel- opment to reach the results. I use the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, applied on COMSOL software to multiphysic models; so I do numerical proofs on semplified test problems compared to the specific real problem to solve.

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L’elaborato affronta la tematica della detonazione nel motore a combustione interna, al fine di individuare un modello che sia in grado di riprodurre il fenomeno in modo accurato, con la prospettiva di un uso a scopo predittivo. A tal proposito vengono presentati modelli basati su svariate metodologie: in particolar modo, accanto ai metodi basati sulle grandezze direttamente o indirettamente misurabili del motore ad accensione comandata, vengono presentati un metodo basato sull’applicazione delle reti neurali, una metodologia di controllo basata sull’approccio True Digital Control, e due metodi che si avvalgono di procedimenti di tipo puramente statistico (metodo dei minimi quadrati e metodo Monte Carlo) per ricavare alcune delle grandezze fondamentali per il calcolo della detonazione. Successivamente, dopo una breve parentesi sulle simulazioni di tipo 3D, vengono introdotti i modelli fisici zero-dimensionali. Uno di questi, basato su un indice (definito dal simbolo Kn) capace di dare una valutazione quantitativa del fenomeno, viene applicato ad un insieme di dati sperimentali provenienti dai test al banco di un motore Ducati 1200. I risultati dell’analisi vengono confrontati con le evidenze sperimentali, sottolineando la buona rispondenza delle simulazioni ad essi e di conseguenza la potenzialità di tali metodi, computazionalmente non onerosi e di rapida applicazione.

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In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

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Burnside posed the question as to whether or not there exist groups having an external automorphism that behaves in a certain, specific way like an inner automorphism: we shall define such automorphisms to be nearly-inner. NI-groups are fairly rare. With the aid of the computer algebra system Magma - in particular with the aid of its small group database - we set out to test this hypothesis.

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Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

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Bosentan has lately been described as a successful therapeutic agent for portopulmonary hypertension consecutive to child A cirrhosis. This is the first report of the effect of this substance with advanced liver cirrhosis (child C) and renal insufficiency. Low doses of bosentan (initially twice 31.25 mg/day and then 62.5 mg/day) increased cardiac output and allowed correction of renal insufficiency; it allowed one to stop the requirement of oxygen and not only improved the 6-min walking test by more than 400 m, but also decreased the severity of the liver cirrhosis to child B stadium. This suggests that patients, who would be excluded from a liver transplantation program because of their portopulmonary hypertension, could profit from a careful therapy with bosentan.

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BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.

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We consider nonparametric missing data models for which the censoring mechanism satisfies coarsening at random and which allow complete observations on the variable X of interest. W show that beyond some empirical process conditions the only essential condition for efficiency of an NPMLE of the distribution of X is that the regions associated with incomplete observations on X contain enough complete observations. This is heuristically explained by describing the EM-algorithm. We provide identifiably of the self-consistency equation and efficiency of the NPMLE in order to make this statement rigorous. The usual kind of differentiability conditions in the proof are avoided by using an identity which holds for the NPMLE of linear parameters in convex models. We provide a bivariate censoring application in which the condition and hence the NPMLE fails, but where other estimators, not based on the NPMLE principle, are highly inefficient. It is shown how to slightly reduce the data so that the conditions hold for the reduced data. The conditions are verified for the univariate censoring, double censored, and Ibragimov-Has'minski models.

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In this paper, the NPMLE in the one-dimensional line segment problem is defined and studied, where line segments on the real line through two non-overlapping intervals are observed. The self-consistency equations for the NPMLE are defined and a quick algorithm for solving them is provided. Supnorm weak convergence to a Gaussian process and efficiency of the NPMLE is proved. The problem has a strong geological application in the study of the lifespan of species.

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BACKGROUND: The rigorous test to which homeopathy was subject in our recent double-blind clinical trail of homeopathic treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) necessitated optimized treatment meeting the highest standards. METHODS: Optimization was performed in three steps: (1) In successfully treated children, prescriptions leading to an insufficient response were analysed by a general questionnaire to identify unreliable symptoms. (2) Polarity analysis, a further development of Bönninghausen's concept of contraindications, was introduced in response to the frequently one-sided symptoms. This enabled us to use few but specific symptoms to identify the medicine whose genius symptoms exhibit the closest match to the patient's characteristic symptoms. (3) We investigated the influence of the primary perception symptoms on the result of the repertorization. Perception symptoms are not normally recorded during a patient interview even though they are among the most reliable facts related by the patients. At the same time we were able to improve the continuity of improvement of ADHD symptoms using liquid Q-potencies. RESULTS: Introducing the questionnaire, polarity analysis, and including perception symptoms, lead to an improvement in the success rate of the first prescription from 21% to 54%, of the fifth prescription from 68% to 84%.

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OBJECTIVE: Caring for a loved one with Alzheimer disease is a highly stressful experience that is associated with significant depressive symptoms. Previous studies indicate a positive association between problem behaviors in patients with Alzheimer disease (e.g., repeating questions, restlessness, and agitation) and depressive symptoms in their caregivers. Moreover, the extant literature indicates a robust negative relationship between escape-avoidance coping (i.e., avoiding people, wishing the situation would go away) and psychiatric well-being. The purpose of this study was to test a mediational model of the associations between patient problem behaviors, escape-avoidance coping, and depressive symptoms in Alzheimer caregivers. METHODS: Ninety-five spousal caregivers (mean age: 72 years) completed measures assessing their loved ones' frequency of problem behaviors, escape-avoidance coping, and depressive symptoms. A mediational model was tested to determine if escape-avoidant coping partially mediated the relationship between patient problem behaviors and caregiver depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Patient problem behaviors were positively associated with escape-avoidance coping (beta = 0.38, p < 0.01) and depressive symptoms (beta = 0.26, p < 0.05). Escape-avoidance coping was positively associated with depressive symptoms (beta = 0.33, p < 0.01). In a final regression analysis, the impact of problem behaviors on depressive symptoms was less after controlling for escape-avoidance coping. Sobel's test confirmed that escape-avoidance coping significantly mediated the relationship between problem behaviors and depressive symptoms (z = 2.07, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Escape-avoidance coping partially mediates the association between patient problem behaviors and depressive symptoms among elderly caregivers of spouses with dementia. This finding provides a specific target for psychosocial interventions for caregivers.

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Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive technique which is commonly used to quantify changes in blood oxygenation and flow coupled to neuronal activation. One of the primary goals of fMRI studies is to identify localized brain regions where neuronal activation levels vary between groups. Single voxel t-tests have been commonly used to determine whether activation related to the protocol differs across groups. Due to the generally limited number of subjects within each study, accurate estimation of variance at each voxel is difficult. Thus, combining information across voxels in the statistical analysis of fMRI data is desirable in order to improve efficiency. Here we construct a hierarchical model and apply an Empirical Bayes framework on the analysis of group fMRI data, employing techniques used in high throughput genomic studies. The key idea is to shrink residual variances by combining information across voxels, and subsequently to construct an improved test statistic in lieu of the classical t-statistic. This hierarchical model results in a shrinkage of voxel-wise residual sample variances towards a common value. The shrunken estimator for voxelspecific variance components on the group analyses outperforms the classical residual error estimator in terms of mean squared error. Moreover, the shrunken test-statistic decreases false positive rate when testing differences in brain contrast maps across a wide range of simulation studies. This methodology was also applied to experimental data regarding a cognitive activation task.

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In a retrospective multicentre study, the success rate and efficiency of activator treatment were analysed. All patients from two University clinics (Giessen, Germany and Berne, Switzerland) that fulfilled the selection criteria (Class II division 1 malocclusion, activator treatment, no aplasia, no extraction of permanent teeth, no syndromes, no previous orthodontic treatment except transverse maxillary expansion, full available records) were included in the study. The subject material amounted to 222 patients with a mean age of 10.6 years. Patient records, lateral head films, and dental casts were evaluated. Treatment was classified as successful if the molar relationship improved by at least half to three-fourths cusp width depending on whether or not the leeway space was used during treatment. Group comparisons were carried out using Wilcoxon two-sample and Kruskal-Wallis tests. For discrete data, chi-square analysis was used and Fisher's exact test when the sample size was small. Stepwise logistic regression was also employed. The success rate was 64 per cent in Giessen and 66 per cent in Berne. The only factor that significantly (P < 0.001) influenced treatment success was the level of co-operation. In approximately 27 per cent of the patients at both centres, the post-treatment occlusion was an 'ideal' Class I. In an additional 38 per cent of the patients, marked improvements in occlusal relationships were found. In subjects with Class II division 1 malocclusions, in which orthodontic treatment is performed by means of activators, a marked improvement of the Class II dental arch relationships can be expected in approximately 65 per cent of subjects. Activator treatment is more efficient in the late than in the early mixed dentition.

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OBJECTIVES: To compare the outcome of arthroscopic lysis and lavage of TMJ with internal derangement of Wilkes stages II, III, IV, and V. STUDY DESIGN: Arthroscopic lysis and lavage was performed in 45 TMJ of 39 patients with internal derangement. The cases were divided into 4 groups corresponding to Wilkes stages II, III, IV, and V. Two parameters were compared pre- and postoperatively: pain and mouth opening. Statistical significance was determined using the chi(2) test. RESULTS: Overall success rate was 86.7% (Wilkes stage II 90.9%, Wilkes stage III 92.3%, Wilkes stage IV 84.6%, Wilkes stage V 75%). There were no statistically significant differences between the success rates for Wilkes stages II, III, IV, and V. CONCLUSION: Arthroscopic lysis and lavage should be performed as a standard operation for internal derangement of the TMJ after failure of conservative treatment in all Wilkes stages.

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The aim of this study was to assess the influence of the zero value subtraction on the performance of laser fluorescence (LFpen) for approximal caries detection. Three areas (cuspal, middle and cervical) of both mesial and distal buccal surfaces of 78 permanent molars were assessed using both wedge-shaped (WDG) and tapered wedge-shaped (TWDG) tips. With the addition of the average, one cut-off value for each area was obtained and the performance was assessed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, specificity, sensitivity and accuracy with and without the zero value subtraction were calculated. The McNemar test revealed a statistically significant difference for specificity at thresholds D(1), D(2) and D(3) (WDG) and D(1) and D(2) (TWDG) when the zero value subtraction was not performed. Influence of the zero value subtraction on the LFpen performance was observed for approximal caries detection. However, when modified cut-off values were used, the zero value subtraction could be eliminated.