Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A revision of the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous dragonfly family Tarsophlebiidae, with a discussion on the phylogenetic positions of the Tarsophlebiidae and Sieblosiidae (Insecta, Odonatoptera, Panodonata)

The Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous dragonfly family Tarsophlebiidae is revised. The type species of the type genus Tarsophlebia Hagen, 1866, T eximia (Hagen, 1862) from the Upper Jurassic Solnhofen Limestones, is redescribed, including important new information on its head, legs, wings, anal appendages and male secondary genital apparatus. The type specimen of Tarsophlebiopsis mayi Tillyard, 1923 is regarded as an aberrant or unusually preserved Tarsophlebia eximia. One new species of Tarsophlebia and three new species of Turanophlebia are described, i.e. Tarsophlebia minor n. sp., Turanophlebia anglicana n. sp., T mongolica n. sp., and T. vitimensis n. sp. A new combination is proposed for Turanophlebia neckini (Martynov, 1927) n. comb. The phylogenetic relationships of the Mesozoic Tarsophlebiidae are discussed on the basis of new body and wing venation characters. The present analysis supports a rather derived position for the Tarsophlebiidae, as sister group of the the Epiproctophora rather than of (Zygoptera + Epiproctophora). Also, through the present discussion, the Oligo-Miocene family Sieblosiidae seems to be more closely related to the Epiproctophora than to the Zygoptera. But the present study and previous analyses suffer of the lack of informations concerning the more inclusive groups of Odonatoptera, viz. Protozygoptera, Triadophlebiomorpha, Protanisoptera, etc. The significance of the tarsophlebiid secondary male genital apparatus for the reconstruction of the evolution of odonate copulation is discussed.

Reply to "Mega-highstand or megatsunami? Discussion of McMurtry et al. "Elevated marine deposits in Bermuda record a late Quaternary megatsunami": Sed. Geol. 200 (2007) 155-165" by Paul J. Hearty and Storrs L. Olson

Our recent paper [McMurtry, G.M., Tappin, D.R., Sedwick, P.N., Wilkinson, I., Fietzkc, J. and Sellwood, B., 2007a. Elevated marine deposits in Bermuda record a late Quaternary megatsunami. Sedimentary Geol. 200, 155-165.] critically re-examined elevated marine deposits in Bermuda, and concluded that their geological setting, sedimentary relations, micropetrography and microfaunal assemblages were inconsistent with sustained intertidal deposition. Instead, we hypothesized that these deposits were the result of a large tsunami that impacted the Bermuda island platform during the mid-Pleistocene. Hearty and Olson [Hearty, P.J., and Olson, S.L., in press. Mega-highstand or megatsunami? Discussion of McMurtry et al. "Elevated marine deposits in Bermuda record a late Quaternary megatsunami": Sedimentary Geology, 200, 155-165, 2007 (Aug. 07). Sedimentary Geol. 200, 155-165.] in their response, attempt to refute our conclusions and claim the deposits to be the result of a +21 m eustatic sea level highstand during marine isotope stage (MIS) 11. In our reply we answer the issues raised by Hearty and Olson [Hearty, P.J., and Olson, S.L., in press. Mega-highstand or megatsunami? Discussion of McMurtry et al. "Elevated marine deposits in Bermuda record a late Quaternary megatsunami": Sedimentary Geology, 200, 155-165, 2007 (Aug. 07). Sedimentary Geol. 200,155-165.] and conclude that the Bermuda deposits do not provide unequivocal evidence of a prolonged +21 m eustatic sea level highstand. Rather, the sediments are more likely the result of a past megatsunami in the North Atlantic basin. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric processes and observations

The central role of the atmosphere in abrupt climate change is proposed and discussed. This discussion is given in the context of the poleward transport of energy in the climate system and of climate variability and change. A number of examples based on observational and model data are used to illustrate the ideas.

Mathematical modelling of decision making processes in construction projects

Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.

An integrated mathematical model to evaluate nutrient partition in dairy cattle between the animal and its environment

In the past decade, a number of mechanistic, dynamic simulation models of several components of the dairy production system have become available. However their use has been limited due to the detailed technical knowledge and special software required to run them, and the lack of compatibility between models in predicting various metabolic processes in the animal. The first objective of the current study was to integrate the dynamic models of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 679] on rumen function, [J. Anim. Sci. 79 (2001) 1584] on methane production, [J. Anim. Sci. 80 (2002) 2481 on N partition, and a new model of P partition. The second objective was to construct a decision support system to analyse nutrient partition between animal and environment. The integrated model combines key environmental pollutants such as N, P and methane within a nutrient-based feed evaluation system. The model was run under different scenarios and the sensitivity of various parameters analysed. A comparison of predictions from the integrated model with the original simulation models showed an improvement in N excretion since the integrated model uses the dynamic model of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 6791 to predict microbial N, which was not represented in detail in the original model. The integrated model can be used to investigate the degree to which production and environmental objectives are antagonistic, and it may help to explain and understand the complex mechanisms involved at the ruminal and metabolic levels. A part of the integrated model outputs were the forms of N and P in excreta and methane, which can be used as indices of environmental pollution. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.