Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialization of Northern-hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates significantly reduces assimilation error both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations, reducing the concentration error by a factor of four to six, and the thickness error by a factor of two. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that the strong dependence of thermodynamic ice growth on ice concentration necessitates an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that proportional mean-thickness updates are superior to the other two methods considered and enable us to assimilate sea ice in a global climate model using simple Newtonian relaxation.

Strong armies, slow adaptation: civil-military relations and diffusion of military power

Why are some states more willing to adopt military innovations than others? Why, for example, were the great powers of Europe able to successfully reform their military practices to better adapt to and participate in the so-called military revolution of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries while their most important extra-European competitor, the Ottoman Empire, failed to do so? This puzzle is best explained by two factors: civil-military relations and historical timing. In the Ottoman Empire, the emergence of an institutionally strong and internally cohesive army during the early stages of state formation—in the late fourteenth century—equipped the military with substantial bargaining powers. In contrast, the great powers of Europe drew heavily on private providers of military power during the military revolution and developed similar armies only by the second half of the seventeenth century, limiting the bargaining leverage of European militaries over their rulers. In essence, the Ottoman standing army was able to block reform efforts that it believed challenged its parochial interests. Absent a similar institutional challenge, European rulers initiated military reforms and motivated officers and military entrepreneurs to participate in the ongoing military revolution.

Mechanisms for AMOC variability simulated by the NEMO model

We have investigated mechanisms for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability at 26.5° N (other than the Ekman component) that can be related to external forcings, in particular wind variability. Resolution dependence is studied using identical experiments with 1° and 1/4° NEMO model runs over 1960–2010. The analysis shows that much of the variability in the AMOC at 26° N can be related to the wind strength over the North Atlantic, through mechanisms lagged on different timescales. At ~ 1-year lag the January–June difference of mean sea level pressure between high and mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic explains 35–50% of the interannual AMOC variability (with negative correlation between wind strength and AMOC). At longer lead timescales ~ 4 years, strong (weak) winds over the northern North Atlantic (specifically linked to the NAO index) are followed by higher (lower) AMOC transport, but this mechanism only works in the 1/4° model. Analysis of the density correlations suggests an increase (decrease) in deep water formation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to be the cause. Therefore another 30% of the AMOC variability at 26° N can be related to density changes in the top 1000 m in the Labrador and Irminger seas occurring ~ 4 years earlier.

Observations of urban boundary layer structure during a strong urban heat island event

It has long been known that the urban surface energy balance is different to that of a rural surface, and that heating of the urban surface after sunset gives rise to the Urban Heat Island (UHI). Less well known is how flow and turbulence structure above the urban surface are changed during different phases of the urban boundary layer (UBL). This paper presents new observations above both an urban and rural surface and investigates how much UBL structure deviates from classical behaviour. A 5-day, low wind, cloudless, high pressure period over London, UK, was chosen for analysis, during which there was a strong UHI. Boundary layer evolution for both sites was determined by the diurnal cycle in sensible heat flux, with an extended decay period of approximately 4 h for the convective UBL. This is referred to as the “Urban Convective Island” as the surrounding rural area was already stable at this time. Mixing height magnitude depended on the combination of regional temperature profiles and surface temperature. Given the daytime UHI intensity of 1.5∘C, combined with multiple inversions in the temperature profile, urban and rural mixing heights underwent opposite trends over the period, resulting in a factor of three height difference by the fifth day. Nocturnal jets undergoing inertial oscillations were observed aloft in the urban wind profile as soon as the rural boundary layer became stable: clear jet maxima over the urban surface only emerged once the UBL had become stable. This was due to mixing during the Urban Convective Island reducing shear. Analysis of turbulent moments (variance, skewness and kurtosis) showed “upside-down” boundary layer characteristics on some mornings during initial rapid growth of the convective UBL. During the “Urban Convective Island” phase, turbulence structure still resembled a classical convective boundary layer but with some influence from shear aloft, depending on jet strength. These results demonstrate that appropriate choice of Doppler lidar scan patterns can give detailed profiles of UBL flow. Insights drawn from the observations have implications for accuracy of boundary conditions when simulating urban flow and dispersion, as the UBL is clearly the result of processes driven not only by local surface conditions but also regional atmospheric structure.

Beyond the environmentalist's paradox and the debate on weak versus strong sustainability

Environmentalists generally argue that ecological damage will (eventually) lead to declines in human well-being. From this perspective, the recent introduction of the “environmentalist’s paradox” in BioScience by Raudsepp-Hearne and colleagues (2010) is particularly significant. In essence, Raudsepp-Hearne and colleagues (2010) claimed that although ecosystem services have been degraded, human well-being—paradoxically—has increased. In this article, we show that this debate is in fact rooted in a broader discussion on weak sustainability versus strong sustainability(the substitutability of human-made capital for natural capital). We warn against the reductive nature of focusing only on a stock–flow framework in which a natural-capital stock produces ecosystem services. Concretely, we recommend a holistic approach in which the complexity, irreversibility, uncertainty, and ethical predicaments intrinsic to the natural environment and its connections to humanity are also considered.

Ionospheric convection response to slow, strong variations in a northward interplanetary magnetic field: A case study for January 14, 1988

We analyze ionospheric convection patterns over the polar regions during the passage of an interplanetary magnetic cloud on January 14, 1988, when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated slowly in direction and had a large amplitude. Using the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure, we combine simultaneous observations of ionospheric drifts and magnetic perturbations from many different instruments into consistent patterns of high-latitude electrodynamics, focusing on the period of northward IMF. By combining satellite data with ground-based observations, we have generated one of the most comprehensive data sets yet assembled and used it to produce convection maps for both hemispheres. We present evidence that a lobe convection cell was embedded within normal merging convection during a period when the IMF By and Bz components were large and positive. As the IMF became predominantly northward, a strong reversed convection pattern (afternoon-to-morning potential drop of around 100 kV) appeared in the southern (summer) polar cap, while convection in the northern (winter) hemisphere became weak and disordered with a dawn-to-dusk potential drop of the order of 30 kV. These patterns persisted for about 3 hours, until the IMF rotated significantly toward the west. We interpret this behavior in terms of a recently proposed merging model for northward IMF under solstice conditions, for which lobe field lines from the hemisphere tilted toward the Sun (summer hemisphere) drape over the dayside magnetosphere, producing reverse convection in the summer hemisphere and impeding direct contact between the solar wind and field lines connected to the winter polar cap. The positive IMF Bx component present at this time could have contributed to the observed hemispheric asymmetry. Reverse convection in the summer hemisphere broke down rapidly after the ratio |By/Bz| exceeded unity, while convection in the winter hemisphere strengthened. A dominant dawn-to-dusk potential drop was established in both hemispheres when the magnitude of By exceeded that of Bz, with potential drops of the order of 100 kV, even while Bz remained northward. The later transition to southward Bz produced a gradual intensification of the convection, but a greater qualitative change occurred at the transition through |By/Bz| = 1 than at the transition through Bz = 0. The various convection patterns we derive under northward IMF conditions illustrate all possibilities previously discussed in the literature: nearly single-cell and multicell, distorted and symmetric, ordered and unordered, and sunward and antisunward.

Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

Adsorption Isotherms for Removal of Linoleic Acid from Ethanolic Solutions Using the Strong Anion Exchange Resin Amberlyst A26 OH

Adsorption isotherms for the removal of linoleic acid from aqueous ethanol were measured using a strong anion exchange resin (Amberlyst A26 OH). The data for linoleic acid were compared with previously published results for oleic acid. The equilibrium data were correlated using the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. Lower average deviations between experimental and calculated results were obtained with the Langmuir model. The capacity of the resin for adsorbing linoleic acid was evaluated at different water contents in ethanol, 100 w = 0.50 to 15.27, and at 298.15 K. The water content in ethanol does not influence significantly the equilibrium behavior, and the strong anion exchange resin has a good performance in the removal of linoleic acid from the liquid phase.

TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE B[e] PHENOMENON. III. PROPERTIES OF THE OPTICAL COUNTERPART OF IRAS 00470+6429

FS CMa type stars are a group of Galactic objects with the B[e] phenomenon. They exhibit strong emission-line spectra and infrared excesses, which are most likely due to recently formed circumstellar dust. The group content and identification criteria were described in the first two papers of the series. In this paper we report our spectroscopic and photometric observations of the optical counterpart of IRAS 00470+6429 obtained in 2003-2008. The optical spectrum is dominated by emission lines, most of which have P Cyg type profiles. We detected significant brightness variations, which may include a regular component, and variable spectral line profiles in both shape and position. The presence of a weak Li I 6708 angstrom line in the spectrum suggests that the object is most likely a binary system with a B2-B3 spectral-type primary companion of a luminosity log L/L(circle dot) = 3.9 +/- 0.3 and a late-type secondary companion. We estimate a distance toward the object to be 2.0 +/- 0.3 kpc from the Sun.

Strong quenching of chlorophyll fluorescence in the desiccated state in three poikilohydric and homoiochlorophyllous moss species indicates photo-oxidative protection on highly light-exposed rocks of a tropical inselberg

The three poikilophydric and homoiochlorophyllous moss species Campylopus savannarum (C. Muell.) Mitt., Racocarpus fontinaloides (C. Muell.) Par. and Ptychomitrium vaginatum Besch. grow on sun-exposed rocks of a tropical inselberg in Brazil subject to regular drying and wetting cycles. Effective photo-oxidative protection in the light-adapted desiccated state in all three species is achieved by a reduction of ground chlorophyll fluorescence, F, to almost zero. Upon rewatering, the kinetics of the recovery of F in air dry cushions to higher values is very fast in the first 5min, but more than 80min are needed until an equilibrium is reached gradually. The kinetics were not different between the three species. The three moss species, have a distinct niche occupation and form a characteristic zonation around soil vegetation islands on the rock outcrops, where C. savannarum and R. fontinaloides form an inner and outer belt, respectively, around vegetation islands and P vaginatum occurs as small isolated cushions on bare rock. However, they were not distinguished by the reduction of F in the dry state and the rewetting recovery kinetics and only slightly different in their photosynthetic capacity. Stable isotope ratios (delta C-13, delta N-15) indicate that liquid films of water limiting diffusion of CO2 are important in determining carbon acquisition and suggest that limitation of CO2 fixation by water films must be more pronounced over time in P vaginatum than in the latter species. This is determined by both the micro site occupied and the form of the moss cushions. (c) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Multicenter Analysis of Glucocerebrosidase Mutations in Parkinson`s Disease

Background Recent studies indicate an increased frequency of mutations in the gene encoding glucocerebrosidase (GBA), a deficiency of which causes Gaucher`s disease, among patients with Parkinson`s disease. We aimed to ascertain the frequency of GBA mutations in an ethnically diverse group of patients with Parkinson`s disease. Methods Sixteen centers participated in our international, collaborative study: five from the Americas, six from Europe, two from Israel, and three from Asia. Each center genotyped a standard DNA panel to permit comparison of the genotyping results across centers. Genotypes and phenotypic data from a total of 5691 patients with Parkinson`s disease (780 Ashkenazi Jews) and 4898 controls (387 Ashkenazi Jews) were analyzed, with multivariate logistic-regression models and the Mantel-Haenszel procedure used to estimate odds ratios across centers. Results All 16 centers could detect two GBA mutations, L444P and N370S. Among Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 15% of patients and 3% of controls, and among non-Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 3% of patients and less than 1% of controls. GBA was fully sequenced for 1883 non-Ashkenazi Jewish patients, and mutations were identified in 7%, showing that limited mutation screening can miss half the mutant alleles. The odds ratio for any GBA mutation in patients versus controls was 5.43 across centers. As compared with patients who did not carry a GBA mutation, those with a GBA mutation presented earlier with the disease, were more likely to have affected relatives, and were more likely to have atypical clinical manifestations. Conclusions Data collected from 16 centers demonstrate that there is a strong association between GBA mutations and Parkinson`s disease.

A new model of outbred genetically selected mice which present a strong acute inflammatory response in the absence of complement component C5

Mice selected for a strong (AIRmax) or weak (AIRmin) acute inflammatory response present different susceptibilities to bacterial infections, autoimmune diseases and carcinogenesis. Variations in these phenotypes have been also detected in AIRmax and AIRmin mice rendered homozygous for Slc11a1 resistant (R) and susceptible (S) alleles. Our aim was to investigate if the phenotypic differences observed in these mice was related to the complement system. AIRmax and AIRmin mice and AIRmax and AIRmin groups homozygous for the resistance (R) or susceptibility (S) alleles of the solute carrier family 11a1 member (Slc11a1) gene, formerly designated Nramp-1. While no difference in complement activity was detected in sera from AIRmax and AIRmin strains, all sera from AIRmax Slc11a1 resistant mice (AIRmax(RR)) presented no complement-dependent hemolytic activity. Furthermore, C5 was not found in their sera by immunodiffusion and, polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing of its gene demonstrated that AIRmax(RR) mice are homozygous for the C5 deficient (D) mutation previously described in A/J. Therefore, the C5D allele was fixed in homozygosis in AIRmax(RR) line. The AIRmax(RR) line is a new experimental mouse model in which a strong inflammatory response can be triggered in vivo in the absence of C5.

Strong surjectivity of maps from 2-complexes into the 2-sphere

Given a model 2-complex K(P) of a group presentation P, we associate to it an integer matrix Delta(P) and we prove that a cellular map f : K(P) -> S(2) is root free (is not strongly surjective) if and only if the diophantine linear system Delta(P) Y = (deg) over right arrow (f) has an integer solution, here (deg) over right arrow (f) is the so-called vector-degree of f