Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Effects of two potential pest management components, intercropping and yellow sticky plastic sheet traps in two differentially resistant potato cultivars for the management of myzus persicae (Sulzer)

Polyculture is traditionally a low-input agricultural system and is important in many developing countries. Polycultures of interplanted crops often support fewer pests at lower densities than monoculture and tend to increase number of natural enemies. Also Yellow Sticky Plastic Sheet Traps have proved useful for trapping aphids. A field study was conducted to study the effectiveness of these potential pest management techniques along with the partially resistant (Cardinal) and susceptible (Desiree) potato cultivars, by using their different combinations for the management of Myzus persicae (Sulzer). Berseem, Trifolium alexandrinum (L.) (family: Leguminosae) was used for intercropping with potatoes. The different combinations (treatments) used in this study were: 1) Cardinal-berseem mixed cropping+yellow sticky plastic sheet traps 2) Cardinal-berseem mixed cropping 3) Cardinal+yellow sticky plastic sheet traps 4) Cardinal separately+berseem (as land area equivalents in relation to the mixed cropping treatments) 5) Cardinal (sole crop). Treatments 6-10 were the same treatments, but with Desiree as the potato cultivar. All these treatments were used to evaluate their effects as management techniques for M. persicae, their percent parasitism, percent emergence rate of the parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae Haliday and yield of Cardinal and Desiree. Mixed cropping of Cardinal and berseem together with the yellow sticky plastic sheet traps reduced aphids by over 90% compared with numbers on the sole Cardinal crop. This combination proved in this experiment the most effective for reducing the aphid populations as compared with all other treatments. Maximum percent parasitism i.e. 6.97 and 6.94% (almost double that in the other treatments) was recorded in the potato berseem mixed cropping, with and without traps respectively. In the same two treatments, yield was increased significantly as compared with all other treatments. However no significant effects of any of the variable was evident on the percent emergence of A. matricariae.

Coordinated management of intelligent pervasive spaces

The content of this paper is a snapshot of a current project looking at producing a real-time sensor-based building assessment tool, and a system that personalises workspaces using multi-agent technology. Both systems derive physical environment information from a wireless sensor network that allows clients to subscribe to real-time sensed data. The principal ideologies behind this project are energy efficiency and well-being of occupants; in the context of leveraging the current state-of-the-art in agent technology, wireless sensor networks and building assessment systems to enable the optimisation and assessment of buildings. Participants of this project are from both industry (construction and research) and academia.