Dietary enrichment by almond supplementation: effects on risk factors for cardiovascular disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Europe responsible for more than 4.3 million deaths annually. The World Health Organisation funded the Monica project (1980s-1990s) which monitored ten million subjects aged 22-6Syrs, and demonstrated that coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality declined over 10 years, was due in two thirds of cases to reduced incidence of CHD (reduced risk behaviours e.g. poor diet and smoking) and one third by improved treatments. Epidemiological evidence suggests diets rich in antioxidants decrease incidence of CVD. Regular consumption of nuts, rich in vitamin E and polyphenols reduces atherosclerosis, an important risk for heart disease. Intervention studies to date using alpha tocopherol (an active component of vitamin E) have not consistently proved beneficial. This thesis aims to investigate the effect of almond supplementation on vascular risk factors in healthy young males (18-3Syrs); mature males and female(>SOyrs); and males considered at increased risk of CVD (18-3Syrs) in a cohort of 67 subjects. The effects of almond intake were assessed after 2Sg/d for four weeks followed by SOg/d for four weeks and compared to a control group which did not consume almonds or change their diet. Cardiovascular risk was assessed by plasma lipid profiles, apolipoprotein A1, plasma nitrates/nitrates, vascular flow, BMl, blood pressure, sVCAM-1 and protein oxidation. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were reduced in almond supplemented volunteers but not in controls. Dietary monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acid content and total dietary fats were increased by almond supplementation. Neither sVCAM-1, venous occlusion plethysmography nor plasma nitrite levels were affected by almond intake in any independent group. No significant changes in plasma lipids, and apolipoprotein A1 were observed. In conclusion almonds supplementation caused a reduction in blood pressure that may be due to increased sensitivity of the baroreceptors after increased monounsaturated fatty acid intake.

The retinopathy of prematurity: a study of incidence and the identification of those babies at risk: myopia associated with prematurity

The ocular problems associated with premature birth have been with us ever since it was discovered that the application of high levels of inspired oxygen provided a reduction in mortality. The consequence of this reduction in mortality has been a rise in morbidity; these mortality and morbidity rates have oscillated during the attempt to find a reasonable balance. The use of contemporary technology during the attempt both to understand the premature baby's delicate physiology and to maintain life to younger and lighter babies has not yet produced stability. The incidence of typical retinal maldevelopment, retinopathy of prematurity (RCP), was analysed by serial weekly ophthalmoscopy examinations in a regional special care baby unit, 579 examinations being made on 138 babies. The best instrument for this examination was found to be a compact indirect ophthalmoscope incorporating an inverting eyepiece - the Reichert Jung monocular indirect ophthalmoscope. The optimum time for ocular examination to discover potential ocular morbidity was at 33 weeks post-conceptual age (PCA) with continued examinations to the age of 37 weeks PCA. The babies that were found to be at risk of a significant grade of RCP were found to be of a birth weight of less than 1251 grams or had an estimated gestational age at birth of 30 weeks or less. A refractive state of myopia was found to be the norm. The myopia reduced as life progressed to attain emmetropia around the age of 50 weeks PCA or 22 weeks survival. The reduction of the myopic state was found to be dependent on birth weight and gestational age at birth, the youngest and therefore the lightest being more predictable in attaining emmetropia. Refractive variations were found to be coincident with the timings of certain medical treatment regimes and a hypothesis is postulated as to the mechanism of this association.

Statin use in rheumatoid arthritis in relation to actual cardiovascular risk:evidence for substantial undertreatment of lipid-associated cardiovascular risk?

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is partially attributed to traditional cardiovascular risk factors, which can be identified and managed based on risk stratification algorithms (Framingham Risk Score, National Cholesterol Education Program, Systematic Cardiovascular Risk Evaluation and Reynolds Risk Score). We aimed to (a) identify the proportion of at risk patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) requiring statin therapy identified by conventional risk calculators, and (b) assess whether patients at risk were receiving statins. Methods Patients at high CVD risk (excluding patients with established CVD or diabetes) were identified from a cohort of 400 well characterised patients with RA, by applying risk calculators with or without a ×1.5 multiplier in specific patient subgroups. Actual statin use versus numbers eligible for statins was also calculated. Results The percentage of patients identified as being at risk ranged significantly depending on the method, from 1.6% (for 20% threshold global CVD risk) to 15.5% (for CVD and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality) to 21.8% (for 10% global CVD risk) and 25.9% (for 5% CVD mortality), with the majority of them (58.1% to 94.8%) not receiving statins. The application of a 1.5 multiplier identified 17% to 78% more at risk patients. Conclusions Depending on the risk stratification method, 2% to 26% of patients with RA without CVD have sufficiently high risk to require statin therapy, yet most of them remain untreated. To address this issue, we would recommend annual systematic screening using the nationally applicable risk calculator, combined with regular audit of whether treatment targets have been achieved.

An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.

The role of longevity risk in Hungary

In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future.

Maltreatment, psychiatric symptoms and human immunodeficiency virus/sexual transmitted infection risk behavior among youth with alcohol and other drug use problems: A person-centered analysis

Multi-problem youth undergoing treatment for substance use problems are at high behavioral risk for exposure to sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Specific risk factors include childhood adversities such as maltreatment experiences and subsequent forms of psychopathology. The current study used a person-centered analytical approach to examine how childhood maltreatment experiences were related to patterns of psychiatric symptoms and HIV/STI risk behaviors in a sample of adolescents (N = 408) receiving treatment services. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews at two community-based facilities. Descriptive statistics and Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) were used to (a) classify adolescents into groups based on past year psychiatric symptoms, and (b) examine relations between class membership and forms of childhood maltreatment experiences, as well as past year sexual risk behavior (SRB). ^ LPA results indicated significant heterogeneity in psychiatric symptoms among the participants. The three classes generated via the optimal LPA solution included: (a) a low psychiatric symptoms class, (b) a high alcohol symptoms class and (c) a high internalizing symptoms class. Class membership was associated significantly with adolescents’ self-reported scores for childhood sexual abuse and emotional neglect. ANOVAs documented significant differences in mean scores for multiple indices of SRB indices by class membership, demonstrating differential risk for HIV/STI exposure across classes. The two classes characterized by elevated psychiatric symptom profiles and more severe maltreatment histories were at increased behavioral risk for HIV/STI exposure, compared to the low psychiatric symptoms class. The high internalizing symptoms class reported the highest scores for most of the indices of SRB assessed. The heterogeneity of psychiatric symptom patterns documented in the current study has important implications for HIV/STI prevention programs implemented with multi-problem youth. The results highlight complex relations between childhood maltreatment experiences, psychopathology and multiple forms of health risk behavior among adolescents. The results underscore the importance of further integration between substance abuse treatment and HIV/STI risk reduction efforts to improve morbidity and mortality among vulnerable youth. ^

Use of structural equation modeling to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography among United States women

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in United States women, estimated to be diagnosed in 1 out of 8 women in their lifetime. Screening mammography detects breast cancer in its pre-clinical stages when treatment strategies have the greatest chance of success, and is currently the only population-wide prevention method proven to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. Research has shown that the majority of women are not screened annually, with estimates ranging front 6% - 30% of eligible women receiving all available annual mammograms over a 5-year or greater time frame. Health behavior theorists believe that perception of risk/susceptibility to a disease influences preventive health behavior, in this case, screening mammography The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography using a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. A series of SEM multivariate regressions were conducted using self-reported, nationally representative data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. Interaction contrasts were tested to measure the potential moderating effects of variables which have been shown to be predictive of mammography use (physician recommendation, economic barriers, structural barriers, race/ethnicity) on the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat mammography, while controlling for the covariates of age, income, region, nativity, and educational level. Of the variables tested for moderation, results of the SEM analyses identify physician recommendation as the only moderator of the relationship between risk perception and repeat mammography, thus the potentially most effective point of intervention to increase mammography screening, and decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. These findings expand the role of the physician from recommendation to one of attenuating the effect of risk perception and increasing repeat screening. The long range application of the research is the use of the SEM methodology to identify specific points of intervention most likely to increase preventive behavior in population-wide research, allowing for the most effective use of intervention funds.^

Cardiovascular risk factors in Turkish immigrants with type 2 diabetes living in the Netherlands

The cross sectional study investigated the association of tobacco smoke, vitamin D status, anthropometric parameters, and kidney function in Turkish immigrants with type 2 diabetes (T2D) living in the Netherlands. Study sample included a total of 110 participants aged 30 years and older (males= 46; females= 64). Serum cotinine, a biomarker for smoke exposure, was measured with a solid-phase competitive chemiluminescent immunoassay. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was determined by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLIA). Measures of obesity including: body weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and hip circumference (HC) were measured. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) were calculated. Urine albumin was measured by immunoturbidimetric assay. Urine creatinine was determined using the Jaffe method. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS, version 19.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Independent samples t-test, chi-squared tests, multiple linear regression and logistic regression analysis were used. Cotinine levels were positively associated with cholesterol to HDL ratio and atherosclerosis-index. Serum 25(OH)D levels were negatively associated with diastolic blood pressure. Gender-specific associations between anthropometric measures and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were observed. Hs-CRP was positively associated with WC and WHR in males and WHtR in females. Microalbuminuria (MAU), as determined by albumin-to-creatinine ratio, was present in 21% of the Turkish immigrants with T2D. Participants with hypertension were 6.58 times more likely (adjusted odds ratio) to have positive MAU as compared to normotensive participants. Our findings indicate that serum cotinine, 25(OH)D, hs-CRP, and MAU may be assessed as a standard of care for T2D management in the Turkish immigrant population. Further research should be conducted following cohorts to determine the effects of these biomarkers on CVD morbidity and mortality.

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

Beyond BMI: The “Metabolically healthy obese” phenotype & its association with clinical/subclinical cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality -- a systematic review

Background A subgroup has emerged within the obese that do not display the typical metabolic disorders associated with obesity and are hypothesized to have lower risk of complications. The purpose of this review was to analyze the literature which has examined the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in the metabolically healthy obese (MHO) population. Methods Pubmed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched from their inception until December 2012. Studies were included which clearly defined the MHO group (using either insulin sensitivity and/or components of metabolic syndrome AND obesity) and its association with either all cause mortality, CVD mortality, incident CVD, and/or subclinical CVD. Results A total of 20 studies were identified; 15 cohort and 5 cross-sectional. Eight studies used the NCEP Adult Treatment Panel III definition of metabolic syndrome to define “metabolically healthy”, while another nine used insulin resistance. Seven studies assessed all-cause mortality, seven assessed CVD mortality, and nine assessed incident CVD. MHO was found to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality in two studies (30%), CVD mortality in one study (14%), and incident CVD in three studies (33%). Of the six studies which examined subclinical disease, four (67%) showed significantly higher mean common carotid artery intima media thickness (CCA-IMT), coronary artery calcium (CAC), or other subclinical CVD markers in the MHO as compared to their MHNW counterparts. Conclusions MHO is an important, emerging phenotype with a CVD risk between healthy, normal weight and unhealthy, obese individuals. Successful work towards a universally accepted definition of MHO would improve (and simplify) future studies and aid inter-study comparisons. Usefulness of a definition inclusive of insulin sensitivity and stricter criteria for metabolic syndrome components as well as the potential addition of markers of fatty liver and inflammation should be explored. Clinicians should be hesitant to reassure patients that the metabolically benign phenotype is safe, as increased risk cardiovascular disease and death have been shown.

Maltreatment, Psychiatric Symptoms and Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Sexual Transmitted Infection Risk Behavior Among Youth with Alcohol and Other Drug Use Problems: A Person-Centered Analysis

Multi-problem youth undergoing treatment for substance use problems are at high behavioral risk for exposure to sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Specific risk factors include childhood adversities such as maltreatment experiences and subsequent forms of psychopathology. The current study used a person-centered analytical approach to examine how childhood maltreatment experiences were related to patterns of psychiatric symptoms and HIV/STI risk behaviors in a sample of adolescents (N = 408) receiving treatment services. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews at two community-based facilities. Descriptive statistics and Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) were used to (a) classify adolescents into groups based on past year psychiatric symptoms, and (b) examine relations between class membership and forms of childhood maltreatment experiences, as well as past year sexual risk behavior (SRB). LPA results indicated significant heterogeneity in psychiatric symptoms among the participants. The three classes generated via the optimal LPA solution included: (a) a low psychiatric symptoms class, (b) a high alcohol symptoms class and (c) a high internalizing symptoms class. Class membership was associated significantly with adolescents’ self-reported scores for childhood sexual abuse and emotional neglect. ANOVAs documented significant differences in mean scores for multiple indices of SRB indices by class membership, demonstrating differential risk for HIV/STI exposure across classes. The two classes characterized by elevated psychiatric symptom profiles and more severe maltreatment histories were at increased behavioral risk for HIV/STI exposure, compared to the low psychiatric symptoms class. The high internalizing symptoms class reported the highest scores for most of the indices of SRB assessed. The heterogeneity of psychiatric symptom patterns documented in the current study has important implications for HIV/STI prevention programs implemented with multi-problem youth. The results highlight complex relations between childhood maltreatment experiences, psychopathology and multiple forms of health risk behavior among adolescents. The results underscore the importance of further integration between substance abuse treatment and HIV/STI risk reduction efforts to improve morbidity and mortality among vulnerable youth.

Morbidity and mortality following pelvic rami fractures in an elderly Newfoundland population

Introduction: Pelvic rami fractures in the elderly are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite our rapidly aging population there is a paucity of literature dealing with fractures of the pelvic rami in this age group. The purpose of this study is report mortality rates following these injuries in the Eastern region of Newfoundland. Additionally, we aim to describe and quantify the important resultant morbidity in this vulnerable elderly population . Methods: A retrospective chart review was performed of all the pelvic fractures in individuals over the age of 60 between 2000 and 2005 in the Eastern Health region of Newfoundland and Labrador. From these patients, only those with the radiographic parameters consistent with low energy pattern pelvic ring injuries were included. Excluded from the study were those with concurrent fractures of the femur. Survival data, comorbidities, injury characteristics, hospital stay, ambulatory status, and place of residence were recorded from the chart. A surrogate control group was formulated from Statistics Canada survival data for use as a survival comparison group. Results: There were 80 fractures of the pelvis identified in patients over 60 years old from 2000-2005. Of these, 43 met our inclusion/exclusion criteria and were used in our analysis. The one and five year mortalities of these patients were 16.3% (95% CI; 7.80% to 30.3%) and 58.1% (95% CI; 43.3% to 71.6%), respectively. These were both significantly different from the point estimates from our constructed age and gender matched control group from the Statistics Canada data of 6.58% (one year mortality) and 31.3% (five year mortality). Morbidity was quantified by change in ambulatory status (independent, walker/cane assisted, wheelchair) and change in residential independence (independent, assisted living, nursing home). Post fracture, 36% of patients permanently required increased ambulatory aids and 21% of patients required a permanent increase in everyday level of care. Conclusion: This study suggests that there may be significantly increased mortality and morbidity following low energy pattern pelvic rami fractures in an elderly population compared to age and gender matched controls. In contrast to previous studies describing these injuries, there is greater homogeneity in this population with respect to age and mechanism of injury. This study generates several important hypotheses for future research and in particular highlights the need for larger prospective studies to identify factors predicting the highest risk for poor outcomes in this population.

Comparing time and risk preferences across three post-industrial UK cities

Date of Acceptance: 10/07/2015 The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The survey was jointly funded by NHS Health Scotland and the Glasgow Centre for Population Health. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies. The investigator team for the overall survey comprises David Walsh, Gerry McCartney, Sarah McCullough, Marjon van der Pol, Duncan Buchanan and Russell Jones.

Comparing time and risk preferences across three post-industrial UK cities

Date of Acceptance: 10/07/2015 The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The survey was jointly funded by NHS Health Scotland and the Glasgow Centre for Population Health. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies. The investigator team for the overall survey comprises David Walsh, Gerry McCartney, Sarah McCullough, Marjon van der Pol, Duncan Buchanan and Russell Jones.

Prospective risk of stillbirth and neonatal complications in twin pregnancies : systematic review and meta-analysis

Peer reviewed