Hydrogen economy options for Australia

Global concerns over the effects of current carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have lead to extensive research on the use of hydrogen as a potential energy carrier for a lower emissions society. Hydrogen can be produced from both fossil and renewable energy sources. The hydrogen economy, in which hydrogen will be a carrier of energy from renewable sources, is a long-term development and any increasing demand for hydrogen will probably be covered initially from fossil sources. Technologies for hydrogen generation from renewable energies are being explored, whereas technologies for hydrogen production from fossil fuels have to a certain extent reached maturity. This paper addresses the major hydrogen generation processes and utilisation technology (fuel cells) currently available for the move from a fossil fuelsbased economy to a hydrogen economy. In particular, it illustrates the applicability of different hydrogen sources using Australia as an example.

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Milling quality and protein properties of autumn-sown Chinese wheats evaluated through multi-location trials

Eight milling quality and protein properties of autumn-sown Chinese wheats were investigated using 59 cultivars and advanced lines grown in 14 locations in China from 1995 to 1998. Wide ranges of variability for all traits were observed across genotypes and locations. Genotype, location, year, and their interactions all significantly influenced most of the quality parameters. Kernel hardness, Zeleny sedimentation value, and mixograph development time were predominantly influenced by the effects of genotype. Genotype, location and genotype x location interaction were all important sources of variation for thousand kernel weight, test weight, protein content, and falling number, whereas genotype x location interaction had the largest effect on flour yield. Most of the genotypes were characterized by weak gluten strength with Zeleny sedimentation values less than 40 ml and mixograph development time shorter than 3 min. Eight groups of genotypes were recognized based on the average quality performance, grain hardness and gluten strength were the two parameters that determined the grouping, with contributions from protein content. Genotypes such as Zhongyou 16 and Annong 8903 displayed good milling quality, high grain hardness, protein content and strong gluten strength with high sedimentation value and long mixograph development time. Genotypes such as Lumai 15 and Yumai 18 were characterized by low grain hardness, protein content and weak gluten strength. Genotypes such as Yannong 15 and Chuanmai 24 were characterized by strong gluten strength with high sedimentation value and long mixograph development time, but low grain hardness and protein content lower than 12.3%. Genotypes such as Jingdong 6 and Xi'an 8 had weak gluten strength, but with high grain hardness and protein content higher than 12.2%. Five groups of locations were identified, and protein content and gluten strength were the two parameters that determined the grouping. Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Nanyang, Zhumadian and Nanjing produced wheats with medium to strong gluten strength and medium protein content, although there was still a large variation for most of the traits investigated between the locations. Wheat produced in Yantai was characterized by strong gluten strength, but with low protein content. Jinan, Anyang and Linfen locations produced wheats with medium to weak gluten strength and medium to high protein content. Wheats produced in Yangling, Zhenzhou, and Chengdu were characterized by weak gluten strength with medium to low protein content, whereas wheats produced in Xuzhou and Wuhan were characterized by weak gluten strength with low protein content. Industrial grain quality could be substantially improved through integrating knowledge of geographic genotype distribution with key location variables that affected end-use quality.

Empirical investigation of investment behaviour in Australia's pastoral region

Optimal intertemporal investment behaviour of Australian pastoralists is modelled using panel data for the period 1979-1993. Results indicate that quasi-fixity of inputs of labour, capital, sheep numbers and cattle numbers is characteristic of production in the pastoral region. It takes about two years for labour, four years for capital and a little over two years for both sheep numbers and cattle numbers to adjust towards long-run optimal levels. Results also indicate that, after accounting for adjustment costs, own-price product supply and input demand responses are inelastic in both the short and long run.

Change in woolgrower profits from adopting staple strength-enhancing management strategies

Wool tenderness is a significant problem in Australia, especially in areas where sheep graze under highly seasonal conditions. In this study, a profit function model is specified, estimated and simulated to assess the economic impact of staple strength-enhancing research on the profits of Australian woolgrowers. The model is based on a number of fundamental characteristics of the Australian wool industry and the staple-strength enhancing technology being assessed. The model consists of a system of demand and supply equations that are specified in terms of effective, rather than actual, prices. The interrelationships between the inputs and outputs are allowed for in the model in a manner that is consistent with theoretical restrictions. The adoption of the new feed management strategy results in a 4.4% increase in the expected profits of Australian wool producers in the short-run, and a 2.2% increase in expected profits in the long-run.

Efficiency effects of agricultural economics research in the United States

Allocations of research funds across programs are often made for efficiency reasons. Social science research is shown to have small, lagged but significant effects on U.S. agricultural efficiency when public agricultural R&D and extension are simultaneously taken into account. Farm management and marketing research variables are used to explain variations in estimates of allocative and technical efficiency using a Bayesian approach that incorporates stylized facts concerning lagged research impacts in a way that is less restrictive than popular polynomial distributed lags. Results are reported in terms of means and standard deviations of estimated probability distributions of parameters and long-run total multipliers. Extension is estimated to have a greater impact on both allocative and technical efficiency than either R&D or social science research.

Searching for convergence in phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a methodology that is gaining widespread use in the phylogenetics community and is central to phylogenetic software packages such as MrBayes. An important issue for users of MCMC methods is how to select appropriate values for adjustable parameters such as the length of the Markov chain or chains, the sampling density, the proposal mechanism, and, if Metropolis-coupled MCMC is being used, the number of heated chains and their temperatures. Although some parameter settings have been examined in detail in the literature, others are frequently chosen with more regard to computational time or personal experience with other data sets. Such choices may lead to inadequate sampling of tree space or an inefficient use of computational resources. We performed a detailed study of convergence and mixing for 70 randomly selected, putatively orthologous protein sets with different sizes and taxonomic compositions. Replicated runs from multiple random starting points permit a more rigorous assessment of convergence, and we developed two novel statistics, delta and epsilon, for this purpose. Although likelihood values invariably stabilized quickly, adequate sampling of the posterior distribution of tree topologies took considerably longer. Our results suggest that multimodality is common for data sets with 30 or more taxa and that this results in slow convergence and mixing. However, we also found that the pragmatic approach of combining data from several short, replicated runs into a metachain to estimate bipartition posterior probabilities provided good approximations, and that such estimates were no worse in approximating a reference posterior distribution than those obtained using a single long run of the same length as the metachain. Precision appears to be best when heated Markov chains have low temperatures, whereas chains with high temperatures appear to sample trees with high posterior probabilities only rarely. [Bayesian phylogenetic inference; heating parameter; Markov chain Monte Carlo; replicated chains.]

Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries

This paper reinvestigates the energy consumption-GDP growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002. Among the energy exporters, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run, while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run. The former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category. In addition, compared to the developing countries, the developed countries' elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary. Lastly. the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hierarchical Structure of the Firm: A Geometric Perspective

This paper incorporates hierarchical structure into the neoclassical theory of the firm. Firms are hierarchical in two respects: the organization of workers in production and the wage structure. The firm’s hierarchy is represented as the sector of a circle, where the radius represents the hierarchy’s height, the width of the sector represents the breadth of the hierarchy at a given height, and the angle of the sector represents span of control for any given supervisor. A perfectly competitive firm then chooses height and width, as well as capital inputs, in order to maximize profit. We analyze the short run and long run impact of changes in scale economies, input substitutability and input and output prices on the firm’s hierarchical structure. We find that the firm unambiguously becomes more hierarchical as the specialization of its workers increases or as its output price increases relative to input prices. The effect of changes in scale economies is contingent on the output price. The model also brings forth an analysis of wage inequality within the firm, which is found to be independent of technological considerations, and only depends on the firm’s wage schedule.

Pockets of flexibility in workflow specification

Workflow technology is currently being deployed in quite diverse domains. However, the element of change is present in some degree and form in almost all domains. A workflow implementation that does not support the process of change will not benefit the organization in the long run. Change can be manifested in different forms in workflow processes. In this paper, we first present a categorization of workflow change characteristics and divide workflow processes into dynamic, adaptive and flexible processes. We define flexibility as the ability of the workflow process to execute on the basis of a loosely, or partially specified model, where the full specification of the model is made at runtime, and may be unique to each instance. To provide a modeling framework that offers true flexibility, we need to consider the factors, which influence the paths of (unique) instances together with the process definition. We advocate an approach that aims at making the process of change part of the workflow process itself. We introduce the notion of an open instance that consists of a core process and several pockets of flexibility, and present a framework based on this notion, which makes use of special build activities that provide the functionality to integrate the process of defining a change, into the open workflow instance.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Some further empirical evidence on the impact of oil price changes on petrol prices

This paper analyses the asymmetries in the response of petrol prices to oil price shocks. We show that previous work, based on the determination of asymmetric responses, can be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries in short term dynamics. The paper shows that a significant determinant of the response of petrol prices to oil price changes, is the extent to which petrol price can be seen to have departed from its long run equilibrium level.

‘O convergence, where art thou?’ Regional growth and industrialization in Italy

This paper shows that the Italian economy has two long-run equilibria, which are due to the different level of industrialization between the centre-north and the south of the country. These equilibria converge until 1971 but diverge afterwards; the end of the convergence process coincides with the slowing down of Italy's industrialization policy in the South. In this paper we argue that to address this problem effectively, an economic policy completely different from that in place in needed. However, such a policy is unlikely to be implemented given the scarcity of resources and the short run nature of the political cycle.

Public capital and total factor productivity:new evidence from the Italian regions, 1970-98

This paper analyses the relationship between industrial total factor productivity and public capital across the 20 Italian administrative regions. It adds upon the existing literature in a number of ways: it analyses a longer period (1970-98); it allows for the role of human capital accumulation; it tests for the existence of a long-run relationship between total factor productivity and public capital (through previously suggested panel techniques) and for weak exogeneity of public capital; and it assesses the significance of public capital within a non-parametric set-up based on the Free Disposal Hull. The results confirm that public capital has a significant impact on the evolution of total factor productivity, particularly in the Southern regions. This impact is mainly ascribed to the core infrastructures (road and airports, harbours, railroads, water and electricity, telecommunications). Also, core infrastructures are weakly exogenous. © 2005 Regional Studies Association.