Endogenous credit cycles

I develop an overlapping-generations framework in which changes in lending standards generateendogenous cycles. In my economy, entrepreneurs who are privately informed about thequality of their projects need to borrow funds. Intermediaries screen entrepreneurs both throughthe amount of investment undertaken and through the level of entrepreneurial net worth.I show that endogenous regime switches in financial contracts from pooling to separatingand vice-versa may generate fluctuations even in the absence of exogenous shocks. Whenthe economy is in the pooling (separating) regime, lending standards seem lax ( tight ) andinvestment is high (low). Differently from the existing literature, my model does not requireentrepreneurial net worth to be counter cyclycal or inconsequential for determining aggregateinvestment.

Testing speaking in 2ND and 3RD cycles at Capeverdean EFL classrooms

This study aims to identify the constraints that complicate the assessment of speaking in Capeverdean EFL classrooms. A literature review was conducted on studies already done in the field of testing speaking in EFL Capeverdean classrooms. The study was carried out using qualitative method with some Capeverdean secondary school English teachers. The participants answered a questionnaire that asked teachers opinions and experiences about speaking assessment. The study found that Capeverdean English teachers do not adequately assess their students speaking ability. Therefore, the study pointed out the constraints of the Capeverdean context that complicate the assessment of speaking in EFL classrooms. The teachers reported the main constraints in order of significance as large classes, difficulty in marking oral tests, difficulty in designing oral tests and difficulty in separating the speaking skill from the listening skill. It concluded that Capeverdean English teachers need assistance with new tools to assess speaking in their classrooms. Thus, the author will make some suggestions, first to the Ministry of Education and then to English teachers in the field to assist them with the implementation of regular oral testing in Cape Verdean English classrooms.

Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality

This paper extends multivariate Granger causality to take into account the subspacesalong which Granger causality occurs as well as long run Granger causality. The propertiesof these new notions of Granger causality, along with the requisite restrictions, are derivedand extensively studied for a wide variety of time series processes including linear invertibleprocess and VARMA. Using the proposed extensions, the paper demonstrates that: (i) meanreversion in L2 is an instance of long run Granger non-causality, (ii) cointegration is a specialcase of long run Granger non-causality along a subspace, (iii) controllability is a special caseof Granger causality, and finally (iv) linear rational expectations entail (possibly testable)Granger causality restriction along subspaces.

Formation of the long range Dpp morphogen gradient.

The TGF-β homolog Decapentaplegic (Dpp) acts as a secreted morphogen in the Drosophila wing disc, and spreads through the target tissue in order to form a long range concentration gradient. Despite extensive studies, the mechanism by which the Dpp gradient is formed remains controversial. Two opposing mechanisms have been proposed: receptor-mediated transcytosis (RMT) and restricted extracellular diffusion (RED). In these scenarios the receptor for Dpp plays different roles. In the RMT model it is essential for endocytosis, re-secretion, and thus transport of Dpp, whereas in the RED model it merely modulates Dpp distribution by binding it at the cell surface for internalization and subsequent degradation. Here we analyzed the effect of receptor mutant clones on the Dpp profile in quantitative mathematical models representing transport by either RMT or RED. We then, using novel genetic tools, experimentally monitored the actual Dpp gradient in wing discs containing receptor gain-of-function and loss-of-function clones. Gain-of-function clones reveal that Dpp binds in vivo strongly to the type I receptor Thick veins, but not to the type II receptor Punt. Importantly, results with the loss-of-function clones then refute the RMT model for Dpp gradient formation, while supporting the RED model in which the majority of Dpp is not bound to Thick veins. Together our results show that receptor-mediated transcytosis cannot account for Dpp gradient formation, and support restricted extracellular diffusion as the main mechanism for Dpp dispersal. The properties of this mechanism, in which only a minority of Dpp is receptor-bound, may facilitate long-range distribution.

Boosting of Replication Competent NYVAC Primed HIV-1-Specific T-Cell Responses by HIV Synthetic Long Peptides (SLP)

Background: To enhance the induction of insert specific immune responses, a new generation of replication competent poxvirus vectors was designed and evaluated against non-replicating poxvirus vectors in a HIV vaccine study in non human primates.Methods: Rhesus macaques were immunized with either the non-replicating variant NYVAC-GagPolNef HIV-1 clade C or the replicating NYVAC-GagPolNef-C-KC, boosted with HIVGag- PolEnv-SLP and immune responses were monitored.Results: Gag-specific T-cell responses were only detected in animals immunized with the replicating NYVAC-GagPolNef-C-KC variant. Further enhancement and broadening of the immune response was studied by boosting the animals with novel T-cell immunogens HIVconsv synthetic long peptides (SLP), which direct vaccine-induced responses to the most conserved regions of HIV and contain both CD4 T-helper and CD8 CTL epitopes. The adjuvanted (Montanide ISA-720) SLP divided into subpools and delivered into anatomically separate sites enhanced the Gag-specific T-cell responses in 4 out of 6 animals, to more than 1000 SFC/106 PBMC in some animals. Furthermore, the SLP immunization broadened the immune response in 4 out of 6 animals to multiple Pol epitopes. Even Env-specific responses, to which the animals had not been primed, were induced by SLP in 2 out of 6 animals.Conclusion: This new immunization strategy of priming with replicating competent poxvirus NYVAC-HIVGagPolNef and boosting with HIVGagPolEnv-SLP, induced strong and broad Tcell responses and provides a promising new HIV vaccine approach. This study was performed within the Poxvirus T-cell Vaccine Discovery Consortium (PTVDC) which is part of the CAVD program.

Long diagnostic delay in Crohn's disease is associated with complicated disease course and increased operation rate

Background: We have recently shown that the median diagnostic delay to establish Crohn's disease (CD) diagnosis (i.e. the period from first symptom onset to diagnosis) in the Swiss IBD Cohort (SIBDC) was 9 months. Seventy five percent of all CD patients were diagnosed within 24 months. The clinical impact of a long diagnostic delay on the natural history of CD is unknown. Aim: To compare the frequency and type of CD-related complications in the patient groups with long diagnostic delay (>24 months) vs. the ones diagnosed within 24 months. Methods: Retrospective analysis of data from the SIBDCS, comprising a large sample of CD patients followed in hospitals and private practices across Switzerland. The proportions of the following outcomes were compared between groups of patients diagnosed 1, 2-5, 6-10, 11-15, and ≥ 16 years ago and stratified according to the length of diagnostic delay: bowel stenoses, internal fistulas, perianal fistulas, CD-related surgical interventions, and extraintestinal manifestations. Results: Two hundred CD patients (121 female, mean age 44.9 ± 15.0 years, 38% smokers, 71% ever treated with immunomodulators and 35% with anti-TNF) with long diagnostic delay were compared to 697 CD patients (358 female, mean age 39.1 ± 14.9 years, 33% smokers, 74% ever treated with immunomodulators and 33% with anti-TNF) diagnosed within 24 months. No differences in the outcomes were observed between the two patient groups within year one after CD diagnosis. Among those diagnosed 2-5 years ago, CD patients with long diagnostic delay (n = 45) presented more frequently with internal fistulas (11.1% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.03) and bowel stenoses (28.9% vs. 15.7%, p = 0.05), and they more frequently underwent CD-related operations (15.6% vs. 5.0%, p = 0.02) compared to the patients diagnosed within 24 months (n = 159). Among those diagnosed 6-10 years ago, CD patients with long diagnostic delay (n = 48) presented more frequently with extraintestinal manifestations (60.4% vs. 34.6%, p = 0.001) than those diagnosed within 24 months (n = 182). For the patients diagnosed 11-15 years ago, no differences in outcomes were found between the long diagnostic delay group (n = 106) and the one diagnosed within 24 months (n = 32). Among those diagnosed ≥ 16 years ago, the group with long diagnostic delay (n = 71) more frequently underwent CD-related operations (63.4% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.01) compared to the group diagnosed with CD within 24 months (n = 241). Conclusions: A long diagnostic delay in CD patients is associated with a more complicated disease course and higher number of CD-related operations in the years following the diagnosis. Our results indicate that efforts should be undertaken to shorten the diagnostic delay in CD patients in order to reduce the risk for progression towards a complicated disease phenotype.

Boundedly rational credit cycles

We propose an evolutionary model of a credit market. We show that theeconomy exhibits credit cycles. The model predicts dynamics which are consistent with some evidence about the Great Depression. Real shocks triggerepisodes of credit--crunch which are observed in the process of adjustmenttowards the post shock equilibrium.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

Long-term swimming exercise does not modulate the Akt-dependent endothelial nitric oxide synthase phosphorylation in healthy mice.

Molecular mechanisms by which exercise exerts cardiovascular benefits are poorly understood. Exercise-induced increase of endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) phosphorylation through the protein kinase Akt has been shown to be a key mechanism underlying the beneficial effect of exercise in coronary artery disease patients. We examined whether this protective pathway might also be activated in long-term-exercised healthy mice. C57BL/6 wild-type mice swam for 24 weeks. A group of sedentary animals were used as controls. Aortic levels of total protein kinase Akt (protein kinase B), phosphorylated Akt at ser473 (p-Akt), total eNOS, phosphorylated eNOS at Ser1177 (p-eNOS), and PECAM-1 (platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1) were assessed by Western blotting. Protein expressions of Akt, p-Akt, eNOS, p-eNOS, and PECAM-1 were not modulated by 24 weeks of exercise. The Akt-dependent eNOS phosphorylation did not seem to be a primary molecular adaptation in response to long-term exercise in healthy mice.

Long-Term Care Insurance Companies, September 2007

The companies on this list have been approved to sell long-term-care insurance in the State of Iowa. Customer service numbers are listed for each company. Please open pdf for the numbers.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Hang up on long distance slamming!, January 2008

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Hang up on long distance slamming!

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panelVAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences.We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specificindicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phasesbut, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s.