A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

The subsidiaries of multinational enterprises operate regionally, not globally

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of home-region strategy of the multinational subsidiary and the impact of such a strategy on its performance. The author draws upon new internalization theory to develop a theory-driven model and empirically tests the simultaneous relationships between home-region strategy and performance of the subsidiary. Design/methodology/approach – The author tests the model using a simultaneous equation statistical technique on an original, new data set of publicly listed multinational subsidiaries operating in the ASEAN region, with parent firms’ headquarters across the broad triad. Findings – There are three significant findings. The first finding is that subsidiary-level downstream knowledge (marketing advantages), and the geographic location of the subsidiary in the same home region as of the parent firm are key antecedents of a subsidiary’s home-region strategy. The second finding is that a subsidiary’s profitability reduces home-region orientation; however, home-region strategy has an insignificant effect on performance. The third finding is that these subsidiaries generate on average 92 per cent of their total sales in the home region (the Asia Pacific). Originality/value – The author advances the existing literature on the regional nature of parent-level multinational enterprises by demonstrating that their quasi-autonomous subsidiaries also operate mainly on a home-region basis.

Sea-breeze dynamics and convection initiation: the influence of convective parameterization in weather and climate model biases

There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land–sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.

On the structure of infinity-harmonic maps

Let H ∈ C 2(ℝ N×n ), H ≥ 0. The PDE system arises as the Euler-Lagrange PDE of vectorial variational problems for the functional E ∞(u, Ω) = ‖H(Du)‖ L ∞(Ω) defined on maps u: Ω ⊆ ℝ n → ℝ N . (1) first appeared in the author's recent work. The scalar case though has a long history initiated by Aronsson. Herein we study the solutions of (1) with emphasis on the case of n = 2 ≤ N with H the Euclidean norm on ℝ N×n , which we call the “∞-Laplacian”. By establishing a rigidity theorem for rank-one maps of independent interest, we analyse a phenomenon of separation of the solutions to phases with qualitatively different behaviour. As a corollary, we extend to N ≥ 2 the Aronsson-Evans-Yu theorem regarding non existence of zeros of |Du| and prove a maximum principle. We further characterise all H for which (1) is elliptic and also study the initial value problem for the ODE system arising for n = 1 but with H(·, u, u′) depending on all the arguments.

Rethinking the Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries

Reconsidering the initial Christian Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries AD, using archaeological and historical evidence, it is argued that this was carried out by missionaries from what had been Roman Britain. It is shown that this missionary activity - and similar British missions in Ireland - represents the first instance of Western missionary work beyond the former Roman imperial frontiers. The location of the northern frontier of Roman Britain in the fourth century, and the meaning of Pictish Class 1 symbol stones, are discussed as part of the broader argument.

Neural emotion regulation circuitry underlying anxiolytic effects of perceived control over pain.

Anxiolytic effects of perceived control have been observed across species. In humans, neuroimaging studies have suggested that perceived control and cognitive reappraisal reduce negative affect through similar mechanisms. An important limitation of extant neuroimaging studies of perceived control in terms of directly testing this hypothesis, however, is the use of within-subject designs, which confound participants' affective response to controllable and uncontrollable stress. To compare neural and affective responses when participants were exposed to either uncontrollable or controllable stress, two groups of participants received an identical series of stressors (thermal pain stimuli). One group ("controllable") was led to believe they had behavioral control over the pain stimuli, whereas another ("uncontrollable") believed they had no control. Controllable pain was associated with decreased state anxiety, decreased activation in amygdala, and increased activation in nucleus accumbens. In participants who perceived control over the pain, reduced state anxiety was associated with increased functional connectivity between each of these regions and ventral lateral/ventral medial pFC. The location of pFC findings is consistent with regions found to be critical for the anxiolytic effects of perceived control in rodents. Furthermore, interactions observed between pFC and both amygdala and nucleus accumbens are remarkably similar to neural mechanisms of emotion regulation through reappraisal in humans. These results suggest that perceived control reduces negative affect through a general mechanism involved in the cognitive regulation of emotion.

Incorporation of different and changing client interests in the course of a project

There is a widespread assumption that clients’ expectations should be accommodated during a building project. However, there may be conflicting expectations within a client organization and these may change over time in the course of a project. Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is used to study the incorporation of client expectations into the on-going development of a building project. To illustrate this, negotiations over a particular decision, namely the location of a building on one university campus was analysed. Negotiations went through a number of stages, involving a master plan architect, members of the public, campus maps and the Vice Chancellor. An ANT analysis helped to trace diverse actors' interests in a series of discussions and how these interests conflict with each other as one option was chosen over another. The analysis revealed new client interests in each negotiation process. Also, the prioritisation of client interests changed over time. The documentation of diverse and dynamic client interests especially contributes to the understanding of how some client interests fail to be incorporated in decision-making processes

Inferences about pressures and vertical extension of cloud layers from POLDER3/PARASOL measurements in the oxygen A-band

We present new inferences about cloud vertical structures from multidirectionnal measurements in the oxygen A-band. The analysis of collocated data provided by instruments onboard satellite platforms within the A-Train, as well as simulations have shown that for monolayered clouds, the cloud oxygen pressure PO2PO2 derived from the POLDER3 instrument was sensitive to the cloud vertical structure in two ways: First, PO2PO2 is actually close to the pressure of the geometrical middle of cloud and we propose a method to correct it to get the cloud top pressure (CTP), and then to obtain the cloud geometrical extent. Second, for the liquid water clouds, the angular standard deviation σPO2σPO2 of PO2PO2 is correlated with the geometrical extent of cloud layers, which makes possible a second estimation of the cloud geometrical thickness. The determination of the vertical location of cloud layers from passive measurements, eventually completed from other observations, would be useful in many applications for which cloud macrophysical properties are needed

Creating a non-word list to match 226 of the Snodgrass standardised picture set

Creating non-word lists is a necessary but time consuming exercise often needed when conducting behavioural language tasks involving lexical decision-making or non-word reading. The following article describes the process whereby we created a list of 226 non-words matching 226 of the Snodgrass picture set (Snodgrass & Vanderwart, 1980).The non-words were matched for number of syllables, stress pattern, number of phonemes, bigram count and presence and location of the target sound when relevant.

High-precision measurements of the co-polar correlation coefficient: non-Gaussian errors and retrieval of the dispersion parameter µ in rainfall

The co-polar correlation coefficient (ρhv) has many applications, including hydrometeor classification, ground clutter and melting layer identification, interpretation of ice microphysics and the retrieval of rain drop size distributions (DSDs). However, we currently lack the quantitative error estimates that are necessary if these applications are to be fully exploited. Previous error estimates of ρhv rely on knowledge of the unknown "true" ρhv and implicitly assume a Gaussian probability distribution function of ρhv samples. We show that frequency distributions of ρhv estimates are in fact highly negatively skewed. A new variable: L = -log10(1 - ρhv) is defined, which does have Gaussian error statistics, and a standard deviation depending only on the number of independent radar pulses. This is verified using observations of spherical drizzle drops, allowing, for the first time, the construction of rigorous confidence intervals in estimates of ρhv. In addition, we demonstrate how the imperfect co-location of the horizontal and vertical polarisation sample volumes may be accounted for. The possibility of using L to estimate the dispersion parameter (µ) in the gamma drop size distribution is investigated. We find that including drop oscillations is essential for this application, otherwise there could be biases in retrieved µ of up to ~8. Preliminary results in rainfall are presented. In a convective rain case study, our estimates show µ to be substantially larger than 0 (an exponential DSD). In this particular rain event, rain rate would be overestimated by up to 50% if a simple exponential DSD is assumed.

Wheat seed embryo excision enables the creation of axenic seedlings and Koch’s postulates testing of putative bacterial endophytes

Early establishment of endophytes can play a role in pathogen suppression and improve seedling development. One route for establishment of endophytes in seedlings is transmission of bacteria from the parent plant to the seedling via the seed. In wheat seeds, it is not clear whether this transmission route exists, and the identities and location of bacteria within wheat seeds are unknown. We identified bacteria in the wheat (Triticum aestivum) cv. Hereward seed environment using embryo excision to determine the location of the bacterial load. Axenic wheat seedlings obtained with this method were subsequently used to screen a putative endophyte bacterial isolate library for endophytic competency. This absence of bacteria recovered from seeds indicated low bacterial abundance and/or the presence of inhibitors. Diversity of readily culturable bacteria in seeds was low with 8 genera identified, dominated by Erwinia and Paenibacillus. We propose that anatomical restrictions in wheat limit embryo associated vertical transmission, and that bacterial load is carried in the seed coat, crease tissue and endosperm. This finding facilitates the creation of axenic wheat plants to test competency of putative endophytes and also provides a platform for endophyte competition, plant growth, and gene expression studies without an indigenous bacterial background.

Influence of implant positioning in extraction sockets on osseointegration: histomorphometric analyses in dogs

Aim To evaluate the influence of implant positioning into extraction sockets on osseointegration. Material and methods Implants were installed immediately into extraction sockets in the mandibles of six Labrador dogs. In the control sites, the implants were positioned in the center of the alveolus, while in the test sites, the implants were positioned 0.8 mm deeper and more lingually. After 4 months of healing, the resorptive patterns of the alveolar crest were evaluated histomorphometrically. Results All implants were integrated in mineralized bone, mainly composed of mature lamellar bone. The alveolar crest underwent resorption at the control as well as at the test sites. After 4 months of healing, at the buccal aspects of the control and test sites, the location of the implant rough/smooth limit to the alveolar crest was 2 +/- 0.9 mm and 0.6 +/- 0.9 mm, respectively (P < 0.05). At the lingual aspect, the bony crest was located 0.4 mm apically and 0.2 mm coronally to the implant rough/smooth limit at the control and test sites, respectively (NS). Conclusions From a clinical point of view, implants installed into extraction sockets should be positioned approximately 1 mm deeper than the level of the buccal alveolar crest and in a lingual position in relation to the center of the alveolus in order to reduce or eliminate the exposure above the alveolar crest of the endosseous (rough) portion of the implant. To cite this article:Caneva M, Salata LA, de Souza SS, Baffone G, Lang NP, Botticelli D. Influence of implant positioning in extraction sockets on osseointegration: histomorphometric analyses in dogs.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 21, 2010; 43-49.

Influence of interimplant distance on bone microstructure: A histomorphometric study in dogs

The microstructure of the crestal alveolar bone is important for both the maintenance of osseointegration and the location of the gingival soft tissues. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the bone microstructure of the alveolar bone and of the interimplant bone in implants inserted at different interimplant distances. The mandibular bilateral premolars of six dogs were extracted, and after 12 weeks, each dog received eight implants, for a total of 48 implants. Two pairs of implants, one for each hemiarch, were separated by 2 mm (group 1) and by 3 mm (group 2). After 12 weeks, the implants received temporary acrylic prostheses. After four more weeks, metallic crowns substituted the temporary prostheses. After an additional 8 weeks the animals were sacrificed and the hemimandibles were removed, dissected, and processed. The longitudinal collagen fiber orientation was 43.2% for the alveolar bone; it was 30.3% for the 2-mm group and 43.9% for the 3-mm group. There was a statistically significant difference between the 2-mm and 3-mm groups (p < .05). The orientation of transverse collagen fibers was 47.8% for the alveolar bone; it was 37.3% for the 2-mm group and 56.3% for the 3-mm group. There was a statistically significant difference between the 2-mm and 3-mm groups (p < .05). The marrow spaces were 34.87% for the alveolar bone, 52.3% for the 2-mm group, and 59.9% for the 3-mm group. There was a statistically significant difference between the alveolar bone and the 3-mm group (p < .05). The low mineral density index was 36.29 for the alveolar bone, 46.76 for the 2-mm group, and 17.91 for the 3-mm group. There was a statistically significant difference between the 2-mm and 3-mm groups (p < .05). The high mineral density was 87.57 for the alveolar bone, 72.58 for the 2-mm group, and 84.91 for the 3-mm group. There was a statistically significant difference between the alveolar bone and the 2-mm group (p < .05). The collagen fiber orientation resulted in statistically significant differences in both the 2-mm and 3-mm groups compared with the alveolar bone. The marrow spaces appeared significantly increased in the 3-mm group compared with the alveolar bone. The low mineral density index was significantly higher in the 2-mm group, while the high mineral density index was significantly higher in the alveolar bone. In conclusion, the interimplant distance should not be less than 3 mm.

Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes. Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in municipalities located within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area. For children under 1 year of age, the two periods were compared in terms of outpatient services utilization and hospital admission; for the mothers, the periods were compared in terms of prenatal care and deliveries. In both surveys, stratified and multiple-stage conglomerate sampling was employed, with standardization of interview questions. Results. The most important changes observed were regarding the location of services used for prenatal care, deliveries, and hospitalization of children less than 1 year of age. There was a significant increase in the use of services in the surrounding region or hometown, and decrease in the utilization of services in the city of Sao Paulo (in 1990, 80% of deliveries and almost all admissions for children less than 1 year versus 32% and 46%, respectively, in 2002). The use of primary care units and 24-hour walk-in clinics also increased. All these changes reflect care provided by public resources. In the private sector, there was a decrease in direct payments and payments through company-paid health insurance and an increase in payments through self-paid health insurance. Conclusions. The major changes observed in the second survey occurred simultaneous to the changes that resulted from the implementation of the SUS. Population-based health surveys are adequate for analyzing and comparing the utilization of health care services at different times.

Expression of Connexins in Normal and Neoplastic Canine Bone Tissue

Previous studies showed that intercellular communication by gap junctions has a role in bone formation. The main connexin involved in the development, differentiation, and regulation of bone tissue is connexin (Cx) 43. In addition, Cx46 is also expressed, mostly localized within the trans-Golgi region. Alterations in the expression pattern and aberrant location of these connexins are associated with oncogenesis, demonstrating a deficient gap junctional intercellular communication (GJIC) capacity in neoplastic tissues. In this study, we evaluated normal and neoplastic bone tissues regarding the expression of Cx43 and Cx46 by immunofluorescence, gene expression of these connexins by real-time PCR, and their correlation with cell proliferation index and deposition of collagen. Fourteen neoplastic bone lesions, including 13 osteosarcomas and I multilobular tumor of bone, were studied. The mRNA levels of Cx43 were similar between normal and neoplastic bone tissue. In normal bone tissue, the Cx43 protein was found mainly in the intercellular membranes. However, in all bone tumors studied here, the Cx43 was present in both cell membranes and also aberrantly in the cytoplasm. Regarding only tumor samples, we determined a possible inverse correlation between Cx43 expression and cellular proliferation, although a positive correlation between Cx43 expression and collagen deposition was also noted. In contrast, Cx46 had lower levels of expression in neoplastic bone tissues when compared with normal bone and was found retained in the perinuclear region. Even though there are differences between these two connexins regarding expression in neoplastic versus normal tissues, we concluded that there are differences regarding the subcellular location of these connexins in normal and neoplastic dog bone tissues and suggest a possible correlation between these findings and some aspects of cellular proliferation and possibly differentiation.