Viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy, cohort viral load and HIV transmission in Southern Africa: A mathematical modelling analysis

In low-income settings, treatment failure is often identified using CD4 cell count monitoring. Consequently, patients remain on a failing regimen, resulting in a higher risk of transmission. We investigated the benefit of routine viral load monitoring for reducing HIV transmission.

The causal effect of switching to second-line ART in programmes without access to routine viral load monitoring

We examined the effect of switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality in patients who experienced immunological failure in ART programmes without access to routine viral load monitoring in sub-Saharan Africa.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment in programmes with and without routine viral load monitoring in Southern Africa

Objectives: To compare outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, where viral load monitoring is routine, with those in Malawi and Zambia, where monitoring is based on CD4 cell counts. Methods: We included 18 706 adult patients starting ART in South Africa and 80 937 patients in Zambia or Malawi. We examined CD4 responses in models for repeated measures and the probability of switching to second-line regimens, mortality and loss to follow-up in multistate models, measuring time from 6 months. Results: In South Africa, 9.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.1–10.5] had switched at 3 years, 1.3% (95% CI 0.9–1.6) remained on failing first-line regimens, 9.2% (95% CI 8.5–9.8) were lost to follow-up and 4.3% (95% CI 3.9–4.8) had died. In Malawi and Zambia, more patients were on a failing first-line regimen [3.7% (95% CI 3.6–3.9], fewer patients had switched [2.1% (95% CI 2.0–2.3)] and more patients were lost to follow-up [15.3% (95% CI 15.0–15.6)] or had died [6.3% (95% CI 6.0–6.5)]. Median CD4 cell counts were lower in South Africa at the start of ART (93 vs. 132 cells/μl; P < 0.001) but higher after 3 years (425 vs. 383 cells/μl; P < 0.001). The hazard ratio comparing South Africa with Malawi and Zambia after adjusting for age, sex, first-line regimen and CD4 cell count was 0.58 (0.50–0.66) for death and 0.53 (0.48–0.58) for loss to follow-up. Conclusion: Over 3 years of ART mortality was lower in South Africa than in Malawi or Zambia. The more favourable outcome in South Africa might be explained by viral load monitoring leading to earlier detection of treatment failure, adherence counselling and timelier switching to second-line ART.

RecNcMIC3-1-R is a microneme- and rhoptry-based chimeric antigen that protects against acute neosporosis and limits cerebral parasite load in the mouse model for Neospora caninum infection

In order to achieve host cell entry, the apicomplexan parasite Neospora caninum relies on the contents of distinct organelles, named micronemes, rhoptries and dense granules, which are secreted at defined timepoints during and after host cell entry. It was shown previously that a vaccine composed of a mixture of three recombinant antigens, corresponding to the two microneme antigens NcMIC1 and NcMIC3 and the rhoptry protein NcROP2, prevented disease and limited cerebral infection and transplacental transmission in mice. In this study, we selected predicted immunogenic domains of each of these proteins and created four different chimeric antigens, with the respective domains incorporated into these chimers in different orders. Following vaccination, mice were challenged intraperitoneally with 2 × 10(6)N. caninum tachzyoites and were then carefully monitored for clinical symptoms during 4 weeks post-infection. Of the four chimeric antigens, only recNcMIC3-1-R provided complete protection against disease with 100% survivors, compared to 40-80% of survivors in the other groups. Serology did not show any clear differences in total IgG, IgG1 and IgG2a levels between the different treatment groups. Vaccination with all four chimeric variants generated an IL-4 biased cytokine expression, which then shifted to an IFN-γ-dominated response following experimental infection. Sera of recNcMIC3-1-R vaccinated mice reacted with each individual recombinant antigen, as well as with three distinct bands in Neospora extracts with similar Mr as NcMIC1, NcMIC3 and NcROP2, and exhibited distinct apical labeling in tachyzoites. These results suggest that recNcMIC3-1-R is an interesting chimeric vaccine candidate and should be followed up in subsequent studies in a fetal infection model.

Intraoperative determination of the load-displacement behavior of scoliotic spinal motion segments: preliminary clinical results

Introduction: Spinal fusion is a widely and successfully performed strategy for the treatment of spinal deformities and degenerative diseases. The general approach has been to stabilize the spine with implants so that a solid bony fusion between the vertebrae can develop. However, new implant designs have emerged that aim at preservation or restoration of the motion of the spinal segment. In addition to static, load sharing principles, these designs also require a profound knowledge of kinematic and dynamic properties to properly characterise the in vivo performance of the implants. Methods: To address this, an apparatus was developed that enables the intraoperative determination of the load–displacement behavior of spinal motion segments. The apparatus consists of a sensor-equipped distractor to measure the applied force between the transverse processes, and an optoelectronic camera to track the motion of vertebrae and the distractor. In this intraoperative trial, measurements from two patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis with right thoracic curves were made at four motion segments each. Results: At a lateral bending moment of 5 N m, the mean flexibility of all eight motion segments was 0.18 ± 0.08°/N m on the convex side and 0.24 ± 0.11°/N m on the concave side. Discussion: The results agree with published data obtained from cadaver studies with and without axial preload. Intraoperatively acquired data with this method may serve as an input for mathematical models and contribute to the development of new implants and treatment strategies.

The role of targeted viral load testing in diagnosing virological failure in children on antiretroviral therapy with immunological failure

Objectives  To determine the improvement in positive predictive value of immunological failure criteria for identifying virological failure in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) when a single targeted viral load measurement is performed in children identified as having immunological failure. Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Immunological failure was defined according to both WHO 2010 and United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 criteria. Confirmed virological failure was defined as HIV-RNA >5000 copies/ml on two consecutive occasions <365 days apart in a child on ART for ≥18 months. Results  Among 2798 children on ART for ≥18 months [median (IQR) age 50 (21-84) months at ART initiation], the cumulative probability of confirmed virological failure by 42 months on ART was 6.3%. Using targeted viral load after meeting DHHS immunological failure criteria rather than DHHS immunological failure criteria alone increased positive predictive value from 28% to 82%. Targeted viral load improved the positive predictive value of WHO 2010 criteria for identifying confirmed virological failure from 49% to 82%. Conclusion  The addition of a single viral load measurement in children identified as failing immunologically will prevent most switches to second-line treatment in virologically suppressed children.

Plasma PCSK9 concentrations during an oral fat load and after short term high-fat, high-fat high-protein and high-fructose diets

Background PCSK9 (Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin Kexin type 9) is a circulating protein that promotes hypercholesterolemia by decreasing hepatic LDL receptor protein. Under non interventional conditions, its expression is driven by sterol response element binding protein 2 (SREBP2) and follows a diurnal rhythm synchronous with cholesterol synthesis. Plasma PCSK9 is associated to LDL-C and to a lesser extent plasma triglycerides and insulin resistance. We aimed to verify the effect on plasma PCSK9 concentrations of dietary interventions that affect these parameters. Methods We performed nutritional interventions in young healthy male volunteers and offspring of type 2 diabetic (OffT2D) patients that are more prone to develop insulin resistance, including: i) acute post-prandial hyperlipidemic challenge (n=10), ii) 4 days of high-fat (HF) or high-fat/high-protein (HFHP) (n=10), iii) 7 (HFruc1, n=16) or 6 (HFruc2, n=9) days of hypercaloric high-fructose diets. An acute oral fat load was also performed in two patients bearing the R104C-V114A loss-of-function (LOF) PCSK9 mutation. Plasma PCSK9 concentrations were measured by ELISA. For the HFruc1 study, intrahepatocellular (IHCL) and intramyocellular lipids were measured by 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Hepatic and whole-body insulin sensitivity was assessed with a two-step hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp (0.3 and 1.0 mU.kg-1.min-1). Findings HF and HFHP short-term diets, as well as an acute hyperlipidemic oral load, did not significantly change PCSK9 concentrations. In addition, post-prandial plasma triglyceride excursion was not altered in two carriers of PCSK9 LOF mutation compared with non carriers. In contrast, hypercaloric 7-day HFruc1 diet increased plasma PCSK9 concentrations by 28% (p=0.05) in healthy volunteers and by 34% (p=0.001) in OffT2D patients. In another independent study, 6-day HFruc2 diet increased plasma PCSK9 levels by 93% (p<0.0001) in young healthy male volunteers. Spearman’s correlations revealed that plasma PCSK9 concentrations upon 7-day HFruc1 diet were positively associated with plasma triglycerides (r=0.54, p=0.01) and IHCL (r=0.56, p=0.001), and inversely correlated with hepatic (r=0.54, p=0.014) and whole-body (r=−0.59, p=0.0065) insulin sensitivity. Conclusions Plasma PCSK9 concentrations vary minimally in response to a short term high-fat diet and they are not accompanied with changes in cholesterolemia upon high-fructose diet. Short-term high-fructose intake increased plasma PCSK9 levels, independent on cholesterol synthesis, suggesting a regulation independent of SREBP-2. Upon this diet, PCSK9 is associated with insulin resistance, hepatic steatosis and plasma triglycerides.

CD4 cell count and the risk of AIDS or death in HIV-Infected adults on combination antiretroviral therapy with a suppressed viral load: a longitudinal cohort study from COHERE

Background Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load. Methods and Findings Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements <50 copies/µl and ending with either a measurement >500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50–500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30–0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71–0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66–0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92–0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl. Conclusions Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl.

Lake Ladoga: Water Resources for the Sustainable Development of North-Western Russia and Finland

The aim of this project was to evaluate the present state and possible changes of water resources in Lake Ladoga and its drainage basin for the purposes of the sustainable development of North-Western Russia and Finland. The group assessed the state of the water resources in quantitative and qualitative terms, taking the system of sustainable development indicators suggested by the International Commission on Sustainable Development as a basis for assessment. These include pressure indicators (annual withdrawals of ground and surface water, domestic consumption of water per capita), state indicators (ground water reserves, concentration of faecalcoliform in fresh water, biochemical oxygen demand), and response indicators (waste-water treatment coverage, density of hydrological networks). The group proposed the following additional indicators and indices for the complex evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative state of the region's water resources: * Pressure indicators (external load, coefficient of anthropogenic pressure) * State indicators and indices (concentrations of chemicals in water, concentrations of chemicals in sediments, index of water pollution, critical load, critical limit, internal load, load/critical load, concentration/critical limit, internal load/external load, trophic state, biotic indicators and indices) * Response indicators (discharges of pure water, polluted water, partly treated water and the ratio between these, trans-boundary fluxes of pollutants, state expenditure on environmental protection, human life span) The assessment considered both temporal and spatial aspects and produced a regional classification of the area according to the index of water pollution. Mathematical models were developed to describe and forecast the processes under way in the lake and can be used to estimate the influence of climatic changes on the hydrological regime, as well as the influence of anthropogenic load on the trophic state of Lake Ladoga and to assess the consequences of accidental discharges of polluting admixtures of different kinds into the lake. The results of this mathematical modelling may be of use to decision-makers responsible for the management of water resources.

Viral load, organ distribution, histopathological lesions, and cytokine mRNA expression in goats infected with a molecular clone of the caprine arthritis encephalitis virus

Caprine arthritis encephalitis virus (CAEV) is a lentivirus of goats that causes persistent infection characterized by the appearance of inflammatory lesions in various organs. To define the sites of persistence, 5 goats were infected with a molecular clone of CAEV, and the viral load was monitored by real-time-PCR and RT-PCR in different sites 8 years after infection. The lymph nodes proved to be an important virus reservoir, with moderate virus replication relative to what is reported for lentiviruses of primates. Mammary gland and milk cells were preferred sites of viral replication. The viral load varied significantly between animals, which points to an important role of the genetic background. We found a clear association between occurrence of histopathological lesions and viral load in specific sites. The mRNA expression analysis of several cytokines did not reveal differences between animals that could explain the considerable individual variations in viral load observed.

Sensitivity Analysis for the Assessment of Causal Vaccine Effects on Viral Load in HIV Vaccine Trials

Vaccines with limited ability to prevent HIV infection may positively impact the HIV/AIDS pandemic by preventing secondary transmission and disease in vaccine recipients who become infected. To evaluate the impact of vaccination on secondary transmission and disease, efficacy trials assess vaccine effects on HIV viral load and other surrogate endpoints measured after infection. A standard test that compares the distribution of viral load between the infected subgroups of vaccine and placebo recipients does not assess a causal effect of vaccine, because the comparison groups are selected after randomization. To address this problem, we formulate clinically relevant causal estimands using the principal stratification framework developed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002), and propose a class of logistic selection bias models whose members identify the estimands. Given a selection model in the class, procedures are developed for testing and estimation of the causal effect of vaccination on viral load in the principal stratum of subjects who would be infected regardless of randomization assignment. We show how the procedures can be used for a sensitivity analysis that quantifies how the causal effect of vaccination varies with the presumed magnitude of selection bias.