Customization, transparency and proximity: a user- centered content strategy applied to the design of a virtual library website

We present a case study of the redesign of the organizational presentation and content of the Virtual Library website at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (Open University of Catalonia, UOC), based on a user-centered design strategy. The aim of the redesign was to provide users with more intuitive, usable and understandable content (textual content, resources and services) by implementing criteria of customization, transparency and proximity. The study also presents a selection of best practices for applying these criteria to the design of other library websites.

Emergency hospital services utilization in Lleida (Spain): a cross-sectional study of immigrant and Spanish-born populations

Background: The use of emergency hospital services (EHS) has increased steadily in Spain in the last decade while the number of immigrants has increased dramatically. Studies show that immigrants use EHS differently than native-born individuals, and this work investigates demographics, diagnoses and utilization rates of EHS in Lleida (Spain). Methods: Cross-sectional study of all the 96,916 EHS visits by patients 15 to 64 years old, attended during the years 2004 and 2005 in a public teaching hospital. Demographic data, diagnoses of the EHS visits, frequency of hospital admissions, mortality and diagnoses at hospital discharge were obtained. Utilization rates were estimated by group of origin. Poisson regression was used to estimate the rate ratios of being visited in the EHS with respect to the Spanish-born population. Results: Immigrants from low-income countries use EHS services more than the Spanish-born population. Differences in utilization patterns are particularly marked for Maghrebi men and women and sub-Saharan women. Immigrant males are at lower risk of being admitted to the hospital, as compared with Spanish-born males. On the other hand, immigrant women are at higher risk of being admitted. After excluding the visits with gynecologic and obstetric diagnoses, women from sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb are still at a higher risk of being admitted than their Spanish-born counterparts. Conclusion: In Lleida (Spain), immigrants use more EHS than the Spanish born population. Future research should indicate whether the same pattern is found in other areas of Spain and whether EHS use is attributable to health needs, barriers to access to the primary care services or similarities in the way immigrants access health care in their countries of origin.

Customization, transparency and proximity: a user- centered content strategy applied to the design of a virtual library website

We present a case study of the redesign of the organizational presentation and content of the Virtual Library website at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (Open University of Catalonia, UOC), based on a user-centered design strategy. The aim of the redesign was to provide users with more intuitive, usable and understandable content (textual content, resources and services) by implementing criteria of customization, transparency and proximity. The study also presents a selection of best practices for applying these criteria to the design of other library websites.

Wireless e-Business Applications - Methods for Forecasting the Demand of Wireless Services and Technologies

Tämä tutkimus oli osa sähköistä liiketoimintaa ja langattomia sovelluksia tutkivaa projektia ja tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ennustamisen rooli päätöksenteko- ja suunnitteluprosessissa ja määrittää parhaiten soveltuvat ja useimmin käytetyt teknologian ennustusmenetelmät. Ennustusmenetelmiä tarkasteltiin erityisesti uuden teknologian ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimus perustui teknologista ennustamista, pitkän aikavälin suunnittelua ja innovaatioprosesseja käsittelevän kirjallisuuden analysointiin. Materiaalin perusteella kuvataan teknologian ennustamista informaation hankkimisvälineenä organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosessin apuna. Työssä arvioidaan myös seuraavat teknologisen ennustamisen menetelmät: trendianalyysi-, Delfoi-, cross-impact analyysi-, morfologinen analyysi- ja skenaario analyysimenetelmä. Työ tuo esille jokaisen ennustusmenetelmä ominaispiirteet, rajoitukset ja sovellusmahdollisuudet. Käyttäen esiteltyjä menetelmiä, saadaan kerättyä hyödyllistä informaatiota tulevaisuuden näkymistä, joita sitten voidaan käyttää hyväksi organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosesseissa.

Predictors and Correlates of Substance Use among Young Men. The Longitudinal “From a Boy to a Man” Birth Cohort Study.

Substance use is one of our most important public health problems. Studying risk factors in a longitudinal study setting helps to identify subgroups of young people at greater risk for substance-use-related problems, and to facilitate targeted prevention efforts. The aim of this thesis was to study childhood predictors and correlates of substance-use-related outcomes among young men in a longitudinal, nationwide birth cohort study. The study population included 10% of all Finnish-speaking boys born in Finland in 1981 (n=2946, 97% of the target population). In 1989, at age eight, valid measures of psychiatric symptoms (Rutter questionnaires and Children’s Depression Inventory) were obtained from parents, teachers and the boys themselves. In 1999, at age 18, boys were reached at their obligatory military call-up (n=2348, 80% of the boys attending the study in 1989). Self-reports of substance use, psychopathology, adaptive functioning (Young Adult Self-Report), and mental health service use were obtained through questionnaires. Information about psychiatric diagnoses from the Military Register (age 18-23 years) and information about offending from the National Police Register (age 16-20 years) were collected in early adulthood (92% of the 1989sample). Boys with childhood conduct, hyperactive, and comorbid conduct-emotional problems had elevated rates of substance use and substance-use-related crime in early adulthood. Depressive symptoms predicted daily smoking, especially among boys of low-educated fathers. Emotional problems predicted lower occurrence of drunkenness-related alcohol use and smoking. Teacher reports on boys’ problem behaviour had the best predictive power for later substance use. At age 18, frequent drunkenness associated with delinquency, smoking and illicit drug use, and having friends. Occasional drunkenness associated with better psychosocial functioning in general compared to boys with frequent drunkenness or without drunkenness-related alcohol use. Illicit drug use without drug offending was not predicted by childhood psychiatric symptoms, but 22% of boys with illicit drug use had a psychiatric diagnosis in early adulthood. Drug offenders, in turn, had psychiatric problems both in childhood and in adulthood. Psychiatric disorders were common among young men with substance-use-related crime. Recidivist crime associated strongly with having a substance use disorder diagnosis according to the Military Register. At age 18, frequent drunkenness was common among boys entering mental health services, but entering substance use treatment was non-existent. According to the findings of this thesis, substance-use-related outcomes accumulate in boys having psychiatric problems both in childhood and in early adulthood. Targeted early interventions in school health care systems, particularly for boys with childhood hyperactive, conduct, and comorbid conduct-emotional problems are recommended. Psychiatric problems and risky behaviours, such as delinquency should always be assessed alongside substance use. Specialized and multidisciplinary care are required for young men who have multiple or complex needs, for instance, for young men with drug offending and recidivist crime. Integrating a substance use treatment perspective with other services where young men are encountered is emphasized.

Elders and the ITCs use to communicate with children and grandchildren

Past research in using ICTs (Information and Communication Technologies) in interpersonal communication showed that age plays an important role. There is a general assumption that the elderly are left behind regarding the adoption and the use of ICTs. Furthermore, elders tend to use ICTs mainly for instrumental purposes and the use is rather non-sophisticated. When elders are using ICTs to maintain their social network, similar patterns could be found: They start using internet, or intensify its use, when their children move abroad while they might decrease using the tool if the motivation ends. In this research we explore elders' incentives to go online and use internet services to communicate; the type of agencies they use to communicate with children and grandchildren abroad; and the situations that make them stop using the ICTs or even reject internet mediated communications. We base our discussion on the empirical evidence the two authors gathered in different cities and countries: Barcelona, Romania, Toronto, Los Angeles, Montevideo and Lima, through semi-structured interviews and observation, with people aged 60 years old and over. The results show that the ability for using ICT tools in an autonomous way is a better explanation than age. In this, we distinguish between assisted users and autonomous users. We found that oldest seniors and those seniors who are less socially active are more likely to be assisted users than those who are socially or professionally active. For them communication with their children and grandchildren abroad follows no agency or it is mediated by significant others from their local social network, who are able to use ICTs and select specific information to share, in the second step, with the elder. For some younger participants the use of ICTs is rather situational and imposed by their children or grandchildren, who installed the tool in the first place and assisted them in using it. Finally, other elders describe a proficient and independent use of ICTs so they use the devices and services the way they want to.We discuss the implications of the patterns in using ICTs, for elders' social life and their relationships with children and grandchildren. First, we emphasis the fact that those elders rejecting the ICTs or being unskilled in using them to communicate might be left out from their family circle, particularly when children are abroad -they would experience more isolation. Second, we underline the fact that when children and grandchildren are the ones that control the ICTs used by their parents and grandparents, they are controlling also the information flow and this will redefine the power relations between elders and their younger relatives.

New and Emerging Challenges of the ICT-Mediated Health and Well-Being Services

This monograph dissertation looks into the field of ICT-mediated health and well-being services. Through six chapters that extend the work done in the reviewed and published articles, the dissertation focuses on new and emerging technologies, and to impact of their use on the beneficiary; the individual who eventually derives advantage from the services. As the field is currently going through major changes particularly in the OECD countries, the focus is on shortterm developments in the field and the analysis on the long term developments is cursory by nature. The dissertation includes theoretical and empirical elements. Most of the empirical elements are linked to product development and conceptualization performed in the national MyWellbeing project that ended in 2010. In the project, the emphasis was on conceptualization of a personal aid for the beneficiary that could be used for managing information and services in the field of health and well-being services. This work continued the theme of developing individual-centric solutions for the field; a work that started in the InnoElli Senior program in 2006. The nature of this thesis is foremost a conceptual elaboration based on a literature review, illustrated in empirical work performed in different projects. As a theoretical contribution, this dissertation elaborates the role of a mediator, i.e. an intermediary, and it is used as an overarching theme. The role acts as a ‘lens’ through which a number of technology-related phenomena are looked at, pinned down and addressed to a degree. This includes introduction of solutions, ranging from anthropomorphic artefacts to decision support systems that may change the way individuals experience clinical encounters in the near-future. Due to the complex and multiform nature of the field, it is impractical and effectively impossible to cover all aspects that are related to mediation in a single work. Issues such as legislation, financing and privacy are all of equal importance. Consideration of all these issues is beyond the scope of this dissertation and their investigation is left to other work. It follows from this that the investigation on the role is not intended as inclusive one. The role of the mediator is also used to highlight some of the ethical issues related to personal health information management, and to mediating health and well-being related issues on behalf of another individual, such as an elderly relative or a fellow member of a small unit in the armed forces. The dissertation concludes in a summary about the use and functions of the mediator, describing some potential avenues for implementing such support mechanisms to the changing field of ICT-mediated health and well-being services. The conclusions also describe some of the limitations of this dissertation, including remarks on methodology and content.

Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Livelihood diversification and moneylending in a Rajasthan village: what lessons for rural financial services?

The complexity of rural economies in developing countries is increasingly recognised, as is the need to tailor poverty reduction policies according to the diversity of rural households and their requirements. By reference to a village in Western India, the paper examines the results of a longitudinal micro-level research approach, employed for the study of livelihood diversification and use of informal finance. Over a 25-year period, livelihoods are shown to have become more complex, in terms of location, types of non-farm activities, and combinations of activities. Moreover, livelihood pathways taken continue to be critically affected by economic and social inequalities implicit in the caste system and tribal economy. A longitudinal micro-level research approach is shown to be one that can effectively identify the many complexities of rural livelihoods and the continued dependence on the informal financial sector, providing important insights into the requirements for rural financial products and services.

Teachers as researchers and teachers as software developers: how use-case analysis helps build better educational software

A series of government initiatives has raised both the profile of ICT in the curriculum and the expectation that high quality teaching and learning resources will be accessible across electronic networks. In order for e-learning resources such as websites to have the maximum educational impact, teachers need to be involved in their design and development. Use-case analysis provides a means of defining user requirements and other constraints in such a way that software developers can produce e-learning resources which reflect teachers' professional knowledge and support their classroom practice. It has some features in common with the participatory action research used to develop other aspects of classroom practice. Two case-studies are presented: one involves the development of an on-line resource centred on transcripts of original historical documents; the other describes how 'Learning how to Learn', a major, distributed research project funded under the ESRC Teaching and Learning Research Programme is using use-case analysis to develop web resources and services.

Land use intensity and trees on farms in Malawi

Rapidly increasing population densities in Malawi have put a huge strain on the existing agricultural land and the surrounding woodland. Smallholder agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Malawi’s rural population and many farmers have been forced to cultivate marginal lands with less fertile soils, making conditions much more difficult to grow crops. Natural woodland is under increasing pressure from the opening of new lands for cultivation and the increased demand for firewood, timber and other woody resources, with rural households historically obtaining most of their complementary inputs and saleable commodities from nearby areas of forest (Arnold, 1997a). Despite this increasing pressure, woodlands are not being cleared indiscriminately; selected indigenous species are left standing in fields and around households. These are joined by exotic species that are planted and maintained. These trees provide products and services that are vital, yielding food, firewood, building materials and medicine, replenishing soil fertility and protecting against soil erosion. Following a Boserupian approach, this study attempts to establish the reality of a trajectory of enhanced on-farm tree planting and management as population pressure mounts and as part of a more general process of agricultural intensification. The study examines the combination of factors (social, economic, political and environmental) that either stimulate or discourage on-farm tree planting on smallholdings in Malawi, highlighting how woodland resource use changes over a gradient of land use intensity. This study gives a detailed insight into the way that tree planting and management in the smallholder farming system in Malawi works and identifies a trend of increased tree planting/management alongside an increase in agricultural intensification. However, there is no single ‘path’ of intensification; the link between agricultural change and tree planting is complex and there are many trajectories of intensification that a farmer may follow, dependent on his/her social or economic circumstances. The study recommends that agroforestry interventions give rigorous consideration to the needs of the local community, and the suitability of trees to address those needs, before embarking on programmes that advocate tree planting and management as a panacea.

Combined use of satellite estimates and rain gauge observations to generate high-quality historical rainfall time series over Ethiopia

Climate data are used in a number of applications including climate risk management and adaptation to climate change. However, the availability of climate data, particularly throughout rural Africa, is very limited. Available weather stations are unevenly distributed and mainly located along main roads in cities and towns. This imposes severe limitations to the availability of climate information and services for the rural community where, arguably, these services are needed most. Weather station data also suffer from gaps in the time series. Satellite proxies, particularly satellite rainfall estimate, have been used as alternatives because of their availability even over remote parts of the world. However, satellite rainfall estimates also suffer from a number of critical shortcomings that include heterogeneous time series, short time period of observation, and poor accuracy particularly at higher temporal and spatial resolutions. An attempt is made here to alleviate these problems by combining station measurements with the complete spatial coverage of satellite rainfall estimates. Rain gauge observations are merged with a locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates to produce over 30-years (1983-todate) of rainfall estimates over Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a ten-daily time scale. This involves quality control of rain gauge data, generating locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT rainfall estimates, and combining these with rain gauge observations from national station network. The infrared-only satellite rainfall estimates produced using a relatively simple TAMSAT algorithm performed as good as or even better than other satellite rainfall products that use passive microwave inputs and more sophisticated algorithms. There is no substantial difference between the gridded-gauge and combined gauge-satellite products over the test area in Ethiopia having a dense station network; however, the combined product exhibits better quality over parts of the country where stations are sparsely distributed.

Use of genetic algorithms and solvation potential to study peptides structure

In this work, genetic algorithms concepts along with a rotamer library for proteins side chains and implicit solvation potential are used to optimize the tertiary structure of peptides. We starting from the known PDB structure of its backbone which is kept fixed while the side chains allowed adopting the conformations present in the rotamer library. It was used rotamer library independent of backbone and a implicit solvation potential. The structure of Mastoporan-X was predicted using several force fields with a growing complexity; we started it with a field where the only present interaction was Lennard-Jones. We added the Coulombian term and we considered the solvation effects through a term proportional to the solvent accessible area. This paper present good and interesting results obtained using the potential with solvation term and rotamer library. Hence, the algorithm (called YODA) presented here can be a good tool to the prediction problem. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tourist Cruise Ships and the Trade in Services: Recent Trends in Countries of the Caribbean Basin

This issue of the Bulletin reviews the main trends of trade in goods and services for the countries of the Association of Caribbean States (ACS) in 2004. The strong recovery of trade in goods and the robust expansion of trade in services are highlighted, emphasizing the increase in services as a proportion of total exports for the smaller Caribbean economies, which may even exceed 80%.A detailed analysis of the performance of the tourism component, especially travel, showed that in 2004 there was a boom in cruise ship arrivals, a situation which poses a real challenge for some islands in terms of ensuring a permanent flow of tourists and making use of the main comparative advantages -sun, sea and beaches- and possible linkages with the rest of the economy such as the hotel industry, restaurants, business and entertainment centres, guided excursions, transport, yachting, and others. In some islands, the ratio of cruise passengers to inhabitants is particularly high, and can reach a significant factor of about 11 tourists for every inhabitant in the Bahamas, 8 in Aruba, 7 in Antigua and Barbuda and 5 in Dominica, and around 4 for a sample of eleven countries.One of the main challenges for a number of Caribbean islands is how to capitalize on such linkages by developing sustainable tourism that minimizes the possible adverse impacts on the environment and the everyday life of the citizens.