The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Registries in rheumatological and musculoskeletal conditions. Paediatric Behçet's disease: an international cohort study of 110 patients. One-year follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To set-up an international cohort of patients suspected with Behçet's disease (BD). The cohort is aimed at defining an algorithm for definition of the disease in children. METHODS: International experts have defined the inclusion criteria as follows: recurrent oral aphthosis (ROA) plus one of following-genital ulceration, erythema nodosum, folliculitis, pustulous/acneiform lesions, positive pathergy test, uveitis, venous/arterial thrombosis and family history of BD. Onset of disease is <16 years, disease duration is ≤3 years, future follow-up duration is ≥4 years and informed consent is obtained. The expert committee has classified the included patients into: definite paediatric BD (PED-BD), probable PED-BD and no PED-BD. Statistical analysis is performed to compare the three groups of patients. Centres document their patients into a single database. RESULTS: At January 2010, 110 patients (56 males/54 females) have been included. Mean age at first symptom: 8.1 years (median 8.2 years). At inclusion, 38% had only one symptom associated with ROA, 31% had two and 31% had three or more symptoms. A total of 106 first evaluations have been done. Seventeen patients underwent the first-year evaluation, and 36 had no new symptoms, 12 had one and 9 had two. Experts have examined 48 files and classified 30 as definite and 18 as probable. Twenty-six patients classified as definite fulfilled the International Study Group criteria. Seventeen patients classified as probable did not meet the international criteria. CONCLUSION: The expert committee has classified the majority of patients in the BD group although they presented with few symptoms independently of BD classification criteria.

Cavernomas and brain cysts as treatment-related sequelae in survivors of pediatric brain tumors

Cavernomas after radiotherapy, developing in irradiated children treated for malignant brain tumors, are capillary malformations that are frquently asymptomatic and benign in their evolution. However, in some children this can lead to haemorrhage, which can cause symptoms and need a surgical intervention. Although there is increasing evidence of cavernoma as a possible long term sequelae after radiotherapy, there is still information needed concerning very long follow-up. Different groups studied this problem focusing on incidence and the lag time radiotherapy and the appearance of cavernomas. Results showed that the period can last a long time and the cumulative incidence increases over the years, but the numbers vary between the different publications. More recently researchers tried to compare several predictive factors with the incidence of cavernomas, such as age at radiotherapy, gender, kind of cancer and chemotherapy. No relation has been recorded except a growing incidence when the radiotherapy was started before the age of ten. Reason of the study : The observations reported until now comprised a very heterogenous cohort of patients. No study has ever been made with patients affected only by malignant brain tumors which are typical in a children. As for the studied predictive factors, no publication described the technical aspect of radiotherapy. Objectives: To study a population of pediatric patients children with only malignant brain tumors in order tp calculate the incidence of cavernomas after radiotherapy and their evolution over a longer period compared to so far published researches. To analyse known predictive factors such as age of children at the moment of the radiotherapy, gender, and kind of cancer. To study extensively the role technical aspects of radiotherapy in the occurrence of cavernomas. Methodology: Retrospective study of a group of 62 children irradiated at the CHUV (Lausanne, Switzerland) between 1975 and 2010 due to the following malignant brain cancers: medulloblastoma, ependymoma, PNET. The images of IRM post radiotherapy will be analysed by a neuroradiologist and a radiotherapist will interpret the radiotherapy data. Expected results: We expect to find relations between the incidence of cavernomas post radiotherapy and the predictive factors including different techniques of radiotherapy and consequently to define the best long-term follow up of the children at risk.

Efficiency and safety of bilateral contemporaneous pallidal stimulation (deep brain stimulation) in levodopa-responsive patients with Parkinson's disease with severe motor fluctuations: a 2-year follow-up review.

OBJECT: The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term safety and efficacy of bilateral contemporaneous deep brain stimulation (DBS) in patients who have levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with untreatable motor fluctuations. Bilateral pallidotomy carries a high risk of corticobulbar and cognitive dysfunction. Deep brain stimulation offers new alternatives with major advantages such as reversibility of effects, minimal permanent lesions, and adaptability to individual needs, changes in medication, side effects, and evolution of the disease. METHODS: Patients in whom levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with untreatable severe motor fluctuations has been clinically diagnosed underwent bilateral pallidal magnetic resonance image-guided electrode implantation while receiving a local anesthetic. Pre- and postoperative evaluations at 3-month intervals included Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scoring, Hoehn and Yahr staging, 24-hour self-assessments, and neuropsychological examinations. Six patients with a mean age of 55 years (mean 42-67 years), a mean duration of disease of 15.5 years (range 12-21 years), a mean "on/off' Hoehn and Yahr stage score of 3/4.2 (range 3-5), and a mean "off' time of 40% (range 20-50%) underwent bilateral contemporaneous pallidal DBS, with a minimum follow-up period lasting 24 months (range 24-30 months). The mean dose of levodopa in these patients could not be changed significantly after the procedure and pergolide was added after 12 months in five patients because of recurring fluctuations despite adjustments in stimulation parameters. All but two patients had no fluctuations until 9 months. Two of the patients reported barely perceptible fluctuations at 12 months and two at 15 months; however, two patients remain without fluctuations at 2 years. The mean improvements in the UPDRS motor score in the off time and the activities of daily living (ADL) score were more than 50%; the mean off time decreased from 40 to 10%, and the mean dyskinesia and complication of treatment scores were reduced to one-third until pergolide was introduced at 12 months. No significant improvement in "on" scores was observed. A slight worsening after 1 year was observed and three patients developed levodopa- and stimulation-resistant gait ignition failure and minimal fluctuations at 1 year. Side effects, which were controlled by modulation of stimulation, included dysarthria, dystonia, and confusion. CONCLUSIONS: Bilateral pallidal DBS is safe and efficient in patients who have levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with severe fluctuations. Major improvements in motor score, ADL score, and off time persisted beyond 2 years after the operation, but signs of decreased efficacy started to be seen after 12 months.

A filtering method to correct time-lapse 3D ERT data and improve imaging of natural aquifer dynamics

We have developed a processing methodology that allows crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data to be used to derive temporal fluctuations of groundwater electrical resistivity and thereby characterize the dynamics of groundwater in a gravel aquifer as it is infiltrated by river water. Temporal variations of the raw ERT apparent-resistivity data were mainly sensitive to the resistivity (salinity), temperature and height of the groundwater, with the relative contributions of these effects depending on the time and the electrode configuration. To resolve the changes in groundwater resistivity, we first expressed fluctuations of temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data as linear superpositions of (i) time series of riverwater-resistivity variations convolved with suitable filter functions and (ii) linear and quadratic representations of river-water-height variations multiplied by appropriate sensitivity factors; river-water height was determined to be a reliable proxy for groundwater height. Individual filter functions and sensitivity factors were obtained for each electrode configuration via deconvolution using a one month calibration period and then the predicted contributions related to changes in water height were removed prior to inversion of the temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data. Applications of the filter functions and sensitivity factors accurately predicted the apparent-resistivity variations (the correlation coefficient was 0.98). Furthermore, the filtered ERT monitoring data and resultant time-lapse resistivity models correlated closely with independently measured groundwater electrical resistivity monitoring data and only weakly with the groundwater-height fluctuations. The inversion results based on the filtered ERT data also showed significantly less inversion artefacts than the raw data inversions. We observed resistivity increases of up to 10% and the arrival time peaks in the time-lapse resistivity models matched those in the groundwater resistivity monitoring data.

BIO-INSPIRED COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO THE CLUSTERING AND VISUALIZATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL GEOSPATIAL DATA

The coverage and volume of geo-referenced datasets are extensive and incessantly¦growing. The systematic capture of geo-referenced information generates large volumes¦of spatio-temporal data to be analyzed. Clustering and visualization play a key¦role in the exploratory data analysis and the extraction of knowledge embedded in¦these data. However, new challenges in visualization and clustering are posed when¦dealing with the special characteristics of this data. For instance, its complex structures,¦large quantity of samples, variables involved in a temporal context, high dimensionality¦and large variability in cluster shapes.¦The central aim of my thesis is to propose new algorithms and methodologies for¦clustering and visualization, in order to assist the knowledge extraction from spatiotemporal¦geo-referenced data, thus improving making decision processes.¦I present two original algorithms, one for clustering: the Fuzzy Growing Hierarchical¦Self-Organizing Networks (FGHSON), and the second for exploratory visual data analysis:¦the Tree-structured Self-organizing Maps Component Planes. In addition, I present¦methodologies that combined with FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component¦Planes allow the integration of space and time seamlessly and simultaneously in¦order to extract knowledge embedded in a temporal context.¦The originality of the FGHSON lies in its capability to reflect the underlying structure¦of a dataset in a hierarchical fuzzy way. A hierarchical fuzzy representation of¦clusters is crucial when data include complex structures with large variability of cluster¦shapes, variances, densities and number of clusters. The most important characteristics¦of the FGHSON include: (1) It does not require an a-priori setup of the number¦of clusters. (2) The algorithm executes several self-organizing processes in parallel.¦Hence, when dealing with large datasets the processes can be distributed reducing the¦computational cost. (3) Only three parameters are necessary to set up the algorithm.¦In the case of the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes, the novelty of this algorithm¦lies in its ability to create a structure that allows the visual exploratory data analysis¦of large high-dimensional datasets. This algorithm creates a hierarchical structure¦of Self-Organizing Map Component Planes, arranging similar variables' projections in¦the same branches of the tree. Hence, similarities on variables' behavior can be easily¦detected (e.g. local correlations, maximal and minimal values and outliers).¦Both FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes were applied in¦several agroecological problems proving to be very efficient in the exploratory analysis¦and clustering of spatio-temporal datasets.¦In this thesis I also tested three soft competitive learning algorithms. Two of them¦well-known non supervised soft competitive algorithms, namely the Self-Organizing¦Maps (SOMs) and the Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Maps (GHSOMs); and the¦third was our original contribution, the FGHSON. Although the algorithms presented¦here have been used in several areas, to my knowledge there is not any work applying¦and comparing the performance of those techniques when dealing with spatiotemporal¦geospatial data, as it is presented in this thesis.¦I propose original methodologies to explore spatio-temporal geo-referenced datasets¦through time. Our approach uses time windows to capture temporal similarities and¦variations by using the FGHSON clustering algorithm. The developed methodologies¦are used in two case studies. In the first, the objective was to find similar agroecozones¦through time and in the second one it was to find similar environmental patterns¦shifted in time.¦Several results presented in this thesis have led to new contributions to agroecological¦knowledge, for instance, in sugar cane, and blackberry production.¦Finally, in the framework of this thesis we developed several software tools: (1)¦a Matlab toolbox that implements the FGHSON algorithm, and (2) a program called¦BIS (Bio-inspired Identification of Similar agroecozones) an interactive graphical user¦interface tool which integrates the FGHSON algorithm with Google Earth in order to¦show zones with similar agroecological characteristics.

Evolution of spirituality and religiousness in chronic schizophrenia or schizo-affective disorders: A 3 years follow-up study

Purpose : Spirituality and religiousness have been shown to be highly prevalent in patients with schizophrenia. Religion can help instil a positive sense of self, decrease the impact of symptoms and provide social contacts. Religion may also be a source of suffering. In this context, this research explores whether religion remains stable over time. Methods : From an initial cohort of 115 out-patients, 80% completed the 3-years follow-up assessment. In order to study the evolution over time, a hierarchical cluster analysis using average linkage was performed on factorial scores at baseline and follow-up and their differences. A sensitivity analysis was secondarily performed to check if the outcome was influenced by other factors such as changes in mental states using mixed models. Results : Religion was stable over time for 63% patients; positive changes occurred for 20% (i.e., significant increase of religion as a resource or a transformation of negative religion to a positive one) and negative changes for 17% (i.e., decrease of religion as a resource or a transformation of positive religion to a negative one). Change in spirituality and/or religiousness was not associated with social or clinical status, but with reduced subjective quality of life and self-esteem; even after controlling for the influence of age, gender, quality of life and clinical factors at baseline. Conclusions : In this context of patients with chronic schizophrenia, religion appeared to be labile. Qualitative analyses showed that those changes expressed the struggles of patients and suggest that religious issues need to be discussed in clinical settings.

Optimization of Soil Stabilization with Class C Fly Ash, January 1987

Previous Iowa DOT sponsored research has shown that some Class C fly ashes are ementitious (because calcium is combined as calcium aluminates) while other Class C ashes containing similar amounts of elemental calcium are not (1). Fly ashes from modern power plants in Iowa contain significant amounts of calcium in their glassy phases, regardless of their cementitious properties. The present research was based on these findings and on the hyphothesis that: attack of the amorphous phase of high calcium fly ash could be initiated with trace additives, thus making calcium available for formation of useful calcium-silicate cements. Phase I research was devoted to finding potential additives through a screening process; the likely chemicals were tested with fly ashes representative of the cementitious and non-cementitious ashes available in the state. Ammonium phosphate, a fertilizer, was found to produce 3,600 psi cement with cementitious Neal #4 fly ash; this strength is roughly equivalent to that of portland cement, but at about one-third the cost. Neal #2 fly ash, a slightly cementitious Class C, was found to respond best with ammonium nitrate; through the additive, a near-zero strength material was transformed into a 1,200 psi cement. The second research phase was directed to optimimizing trace additive concentrations, defining the behavior of the resulting cements, evaluating more comprehensively the fly ashes available in Iowa, and explaining the cement formation mechanisms of the most promising trace additives. X-ray diffraction data demonstrate that both amorphous and crystalline hydrates of chemically enhanced fly ash differ from those of unaltered fly ash hydrates. Calciumaluminum- silicate hydrates were formed, rather than the expected (and hypothesized) calcium-silicate hydrates. These new reaction products explain the observed strength enhancement. The final phase concentrated on laboratory application of the chemically-enhanced fly ash cements to road base stabilization. Emphasis was placed on use of marginal aggregates, such as limestone crusher fines and unprocessed blow sand. The nature of the chemically modified fly ash cements led to an evaluation of fine grained soil stabilization where a wide range of materials, defined by plasticity index, could be stabilized. Parameters used for evaluation included strength, compaction requirements, set time, and frost resistance.

Optimal perfusion computed tomographic thresholds for ischemic core and penumbra are not time dependent in the clinically relevant time window.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study aims to determine whether perfusion computed tomographic (PCT) thresholds for delineating the ischemic core and penumbra are time dependent or time independent in patients presenting with symptoms of acute stroke. METHODS: Two hundred seventeen patients were evaluated in a retrospective, multicenter study. Patients were divided into those with either persistent occlusion or recanalization. All patients received admission PCT and follow-up imaging to determine the final ischemic core, which was then retrospectively matched to the PCT images to identify optimal thresholds for the different PCT parameters. These thresholds were assessed for significant variation over time since symptom onset. RESULTS: In the persistent occlusion group, optimal PCT parameters that did not significantly change with time included absolute mean transit time, relative mean transit time, relative cerebral blood flow, and relative cerebral blood volume when time was restricted to 15 hours after symptom onset. Conversely, the recanalization group showed no significant time variation for any PCT parameter at any time interval. In the persistent occlusion group, the optimal threshold to delineate the total ischemic area was the relative mean transit time at a threshold of 180%. In patients with recanalization, the optimal parameter to predict the ischemic core was relative cerebral blood volume at a threshold of 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Time does not influence the optimal PCT thresholds to delineate the ischemic core and penumbra in the first 15 hours after symptom onset for relative mean transit time and relative cerebral blood volume, the optimal parameters to delineate ischemic core and penumbra.

Endoscopic and surgical treatment of vesico-ureteral reflux in children. Comparative long-term follow-up.

PRINCIPLES: This retrospective study analyzes the long-term results of endoscopic and surgical treatment of vesico-ureteral reflux in children. METHODS: A cohort of 130 patients, 67 girls and 63 boys with a mean age of 30 months were treated either by endoscopic subureteral collagen injection (SCIN) in 92 and by Cohen reimplantation surgery in 123 refluxing ureteral units. Mean follow-up was 4.2 years varying from 1 to 8.7 years. Reflux recurrence, urinary tract infection (UTI) and renal function were evaluated. RESULTS: After SCIN reflux was absent in 64% at 6 months. 20% of the initially 92 refluxing ureters were injected twice. After one or two injections reflux was absent in 71%. In 21% recurrent reflux was of grade I or II, not requiring further treatment. UTI was observed in 27%. After Cohen ureteral reimplantation reflux was absent in 96% at 6 months. UTI was observed in 23%. Renal function at diagnosis and follow-up was compared in children with bilateral grade III reflux only. In patients treated with SCIN it was normal in 77% preoperatively and in 90% at follow-up. In patients treated by open surgery it was normal in 47% preoperatively and in 76% at follow-up. CONCLUSION: For high-grade vesico-ureteral reflux re-implantation surgery remains the gold standard. SCIN is indicated for low and medium grade reflux. Recurrent bacteriuria was observed more often after SCIN and pyelonephritis more often after open surgery. The renal function seems to be preserved with both techniques.

Dosage optimization of treatments using population pharmacokinetic modeling and simulation.

Pharmacokinetic variability in drug levels represent for some drugs a major determinant of treatment success, since sub-therapeutic concentrations might lead to toxic reactions, treatment discontinuation or inefficacy. This is true for most antiretroviral drugs, which exhibit high inter-patient variability in their pharmacokinetics that has been partially explained by some genetic and non-genetic factors. The population pharmacokinetic approach represents a very useful tool for the description of the dose-concentration relationship, the quantification of variability in the target population of patients and the identification of influencing factors. It can thus be used to make predictions and dosage adjustment optimization based on Bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). This approach has been used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of nevirapine (NVP) in 137 HIV-positive patients followed within the frame of a TDM program. Among tested covariates, body weight, co-administration of a cytochrome (CYP) 3A4 inducer or boosted atazanavir as well as elevated aspartate transaminases showed an effect on NVP elimination. In addition, genetic polymorphism in the CYP2B6 was associated with reduced NVP clearance. Altogether, these factors could explain 26% in NVP variability. Model-based simulations were used to compare the adequacy of different dosage regimens in relation to the therapeutic target associated with treatment efficacy. In conclusion, the population approach is very useful to characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of drugs in a population of interest. The quantification and the identification of the sources of variability is a rational approach to making optimal dosage decision for certain drugs administered chronically.

Effect of soil management on the white grub population and damage in soybean

To evaluate the effect of soil management systems on population of white grubs, (Phyllophaga cuyabana Moser), and on its damage in soybean, experiments were set up under no-tillage and conventional tillage (one disk plow, and a leveling disk harrow) areas. Primary tillage equipment, used in other soil management systems, such as moldboard plow, disk plow, chisel plow and heavy duty disk harrow were also tested. Fluctuation of P. cuyabana population and the extent of its damage to soybean was similar under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems. Results comparing a range of primary tillage equipment showed that it affected soil insect populations differently, depending on the time during the season in which tillage was executed. Larval mortality could mostly be attributed to their exposure to adverse factors, soon after tillage, than to changes in soil conditions. Reduction of white grub population was more evident in plots managed by heavier equipment, such as the moldboard plow. Soil tillage could be one component within the soil pest management system in soybean, however, its use can not be generalized.

Design and establishment of a biobank in a multicenter prospective cohort study of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (SWITCO65+).

In the field of thrombosis and haemostasis, many preanalytical variables influence the results of coagulation assays and measures to limit potential results variations should be taken. To our knowledge, no paper describing the development and maintenance of a haemostasis biobank has been previously published. Our description of the biobank of the Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (SWITCO65+) is intended to facilitate the set-up of other biobanks in the field of thrombosis and haemostasis. SWITCO65+ is a multicentre cohort that prospectively enrolled consecutive patients aged ≥65 years with venous thromboembolism at nine Swiss hospitals from 09/2009 to 03/2012. Patients will be followed up until December 2013. The cohort includes a biobank with biological material from each participant taken at baseline and after 12 months of follow-up. Whole blood from all participants is assayed with a standard haematology panel, for which fresh samples are required. Two buffy coat vials, one PAXgene Blood RNA System tube and one EDTA-whole blood sample are also collected at baseline for RNA/DNA extraction. Blood samples are processed and vialed within 1 h of collection and transported in batches to a central laboratory where they are stored in ultra-low temperature archives. All analyses of the same type are performed in the same laboratory in batches. Using multiple core laboratories increased the speed of sample analyses and reduced storage time. After recruiting, processing and analyzing the blood of more than 1,000 patients, we determined that the adopted methods and technologies were fit-for-purpose and robust.

Long-term follow-up of colorectal carcinoma patients by repeated CEA radioimmunoassay.

One of the major practical applications of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) assay is the monitoring of colorectal carcinoma patients after complete tumor resection. During the last 5 years, we have followed by repeated CEA assays 66 patients with histologically confirmed colon or rectum adenocarcinoma. Among 19 patients who developed a tumor recurrence, 17 had increased CEA levels preceding the clinical diagnosis by 2 to 26 months. Among the 47 patients who did not show any clinical evidence of tumor recurrence, 35 had CEA values remaining below the limit of 5 ng/ml, whereas 12 had moderate elevations of CEA level fluctuating around this limit. The majority of patients in this last group were heavy smokers or had liver enlargement, but in a few of them we did not find a satisfactory explanation for their moderately increased CEA levels. While our results confirm that repeated CEA assays can predict tumor recurrence with a lead time of several months over clinical diagnosis, they also give a word of warning concerning the interpretation of moderate elevations of CEA level. A moderate increase of CEA level can be the result of early distant metastases, local recurrence or exacerbation of an inflammatory disease. We feel that the decision of second look operations based on CEA results should be made only if increasing CEA values have been observed on three different blood samples taken within a period of 3 months and if no nonmalignant diseases known to increase CEA level are present. Ultimately only randomized clinical studies will determine if second look operations motivated by elevated CEA levels can improve the quality and length of survival of patients with colorectal carcinoma.