Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011

Hosni Mubarak’s regime and its power system enjoyed remarkable stability for over 30 years. On 11 February 2011, after 18 days of mass protests, the Egyptian president was forced to step down, revealing the unsustainability of the political and economic system that had ensured his continuity for so long. While the revolution of January 25th led to a major success – the fall of Hosni Mubarak – Egypt’s political future is still opaque and exposed to a number of risks. This paper first highlights the factors underpinning the former stability of Mubarak’s regime; it then assesses the causes of its underlying unsustainability, leading to the anti-government popular mobilisation in January-February 2011 and the removal of Mubarak; finally the paper evaluates the prospects for a genuine democratic transition in Egypt, by looking at the main political and socio-economic challenges facing the country.

Consensus, contradiction, and conciliation of interests: the geo-economics of the Energy Union. EPC Policy Brief, 8 July 2015

European Union energy policy calls for nothing less than a profound transformation of the EU's energy system: by 2050 decarbonised electricity generation with 80-95% fewer greenhouse gas emissions, increased use of renewables, more energy efficiency, a functioning energy market and increased security of supply are to be achieved. Different EU policies (e.g., EU climate and energy package for 2020) are intended to create the political and regulatory framework for this transformation. The sectorial dynamics resulting from these EU policies already affect the systems of electricity generation, transportation and storage in Europe, and the more effective the implementation of new measures the more the structure of Europe's power system will change in the years to come. Recent initiatives such as the 2030 climate/energy package and the Energy Union are supposed to keep this dynamic up. Setting new EU targets, however, is not necessarily the same as meeting them. The impact of EU energy policy is likely to have considerable geo-economic implications for individual member states: with increasing market integration come new competitors; coal and gas power plants face new renewable challengers domestically and abroad; and diversification towards new suppliers will result in new trade routes, entry points and infrastructure. Where these implications are at odds with powerful national interests, any member state may point to Article 194, 2 of the Lisbon Treaty and argue that the EU's energy policy agenda interferes with its given right to determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, the choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply. The implementation of new policy initiatives therefore involves intense negotiations to conciliate contradicting interests, something that traditionally has been far from easy to achieve. In areas where this process runs into difficulties, the transfer of sovereignty to the European level is usually to be found amongst the suggested solutions. Pooling sovereignty on a new level, however, does not automatically result in a consensus, i.e., conciliate contradicting interests. Rather than focussing on the right level of decision making, European policy makers need to face the (inconvenient truth of) geo-economical frictions within the Union that make it difficult to come to an arrangement. The reminder of this text explains these latter, more structural and sector-related challenges for European energy policy in more detail, and develops some concrete steps towards a political and regulatory framework necessary to overcome them.

Fourth report on survey of electric utility applications of digital computers.

"S-109-B."

A time-domain test for some types of nonlinearity

The bispectrum and third-order moment can be viewed as equivalent tools for testing for the presence of nonlinearity in stationary time series. This is because the bispectrum is the Fourier transform of the third-order moment. An advantage of the bispectrum is that its estimator comprises terms that are asymptotically independent at distinct bifrequencies under the null hypothesis of linearity. An advantage of the third-order moment is that its values in any subset of joint lags can be used in the test, whereas when using the bispectrum the entire (or truncated) third-order moment is required to construct the Fourier transform. In this paper, we propose a test for nonlinearity based upon the estimated third-order moment. We use the phase scrambling bootstrap method to give a nonparametric estimate of the variance of our test statistic under the null hypothesis. Using a simulation study, we demonstrate that the test obtains its target significance level, with large power, when compared to an existing standard parametric test that uses the bispectrum. Further we show how the proposed test can be used to identify the source of nonlinearity due to interactions at specific frequencies. We also investigate implications for heuristic diagnosis of nonstationarity.

Application of program packages EMTDC and matlab in the analysis of impact of neutral point operating regime on the magnitude of touch Voltage

This paper introduces a method for power system modeling during the earth fault. The possibility of using this method for selection and adjustment of earth fault protection is pointed out. The paper also contains the comparison of results achieved by simulation with the experimental measurements.

Differential evolution based total transfer capability assessment with optimal dispatch

In this paper, a new differential evolution (DE) based power system optimal available transfer capability (ATC) assessment is presented. Power system total transfer capability (TTC) is traditionally solved by the repeated power flow (RPF) method and the continuation power flow (CPF) method. These methods are based on the assumption that the productions of the source area generators are increased in identical proportion to balance the load increment in the sink area. A new approach based on DE algorithm to generate optimal dispatch both in source area generators and sink area loads is proposed in this paper. This new method can compute ATC between two areas with significant improvement in accuracy compared with the traditional RPF and CPF based methods. A case study using a 30 bus system is given to verify the efficiency and effectiveness of this new DE based ATC optimization approach.

A novel grid computing approach for probabilistic small signal analysis

Grid computing is an advanced technique for collaboratively solving complicated scientific problems using geographically and organisational dispersed computational, data storage and other recourses. Application of grid computing could provide significant benefits to all aspects of power system that involves using computers. Based on our previous research, this paper presents a novel grid computing approach for probabilistic small signal stability (PSSS) analysis in electric power systems with uncertainties. A prototype computing grid is successfully implemented in our research lab to carry out PSSS analysis on two benchmark systems. Comparing to traditional computing techniques, the gird computing has given better performances for PSSS analysis in terms of computing capacity, speed, accuracy and stability. In addition, a computing grid framework for power system analysis has been proposed based on the recent study.

Towards pattern-based design recovery

A method and a corresponding tool is described which assist design recovery and program understanding by recognising instances of design patterns semi-automatically. The approach taken is specifically designed to overcome the existing scalability problems caused by many design and implementation variants of design pattern instances. Our approach is based on a new recognition algorithm which works incrementally rather than trying to analyse a possibly large software system in one pass without any human intervention. The new algorithm exploits domain and context knowledge given by a reverse engineer and by a special underlying data structure, namely a special form of an annotated abstract syntax graph. A comparative and quantitative evaluation of applying the approach to the Java AWT and JGL libraries is also given.

Optimal dispatch of spinning reserve in a competitive electricity market using genetic algorithms

Ancillary service plays a key role in maintaining operation security of the power system in a competitive electricity market. The spinning reserve is one of the most important ancillary services that should be provided effectively. This paper presents the design of an integrated market for energy and spinning reserve service with particular emphasis on coordinated dispatch of bulk power and spinning reserve services. A new market dispatching mechanism has been developed to minimize the cost of service while maintaining system security. Genetic algorithms (GA) are used for finding the global optimal solutions for this dispatch problem. Case studies and corresponding analyses have been carried out to demonstrate and discuss the efficiency and usefulness of the proposed method.

Evaluation and measurement of multiprocessor systems with shared memory

This study is concerned with several proposals concerning multiprocessor systems and with the various possible methods of evaluating such proposals. After a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of several performance evaluation tools, the author decides that simulation is the only tool powerful enough to develop a model which would be of practical use, in the design, comparison and extension of systems. The main aims of the simulation package developed as part of this study are cost effectiveness, ease of use and generality. The methodology on which the simulation package is based is described in detail. The fundamental principles are that model design should reflect actual systems design, that measuring procedures should be carried out alongside design that models should be well documented and easily adaptable and that models should be dynamic. The simulation package itself is modular, and in this way reflects current design trends. This approach also aids documentation and ensures that the model is easily adaptable. It contains a skeleton structure and a library of segments which can be added to or directly swapped with segments of the skeleton structure, to form a model which fits a user's requirements. The study also contains the results of some experimental work carried out using the model, the first part of which tests• the model's capabilities by simulating a large operating system, the ICL George 3 system; the second part deals with general questions and some of the many proposals concerning multiprocessor systems.

Bandwidth management of WiMAX systems and performance modeling

WiMAX has been introduced as a competitive alternative for metropolitan broadband wireless access technologies. It is connection oriented and it can provide very high data rates, large service coverage, and flexible quality of services (QoS). Due to the large number of connections and flexible QoS supported by WiMAX, the uplink access in WiMAX networks is very challenging since the medium access control (MAC) protocol must efficiently manage the bandwidth and related channel allocations. In this paper, we propose and investigate a cost-effective WiMAX bandwidth management scheme, named the WiMAX partial sharing scheme (WPSS), in order to provide good QoS while achieving better bandwidth utilization and network throughput. The proposed bandwidth management scheme is compared with a simple but inefficient scheme, named the WiMAX complete sharing scheme (WCPS). A maximum entropy (ME) based analytical model (MEAM) is proposed for the performance evaluation of the two bandwidth management schemes. The reason for using MEAM for the performance evaluation is that MEAM can efficiently model a large-scale system in which the number of stations or connections is generally very high, while the traditional simulation and analytical (e.g., Markov models) approaches cannot perform well due to the high computation complexity. We model the bandwidth management scheme as a queuing network model (QNM) that consists of interacting multiclass queues for different service classes. Closed form expressions for the state and blocking probability distributions are derived for those schemes. Simulation results verify the MEAM numerical results and show that WPSS can significantly improve the network's performance compared to WCPS.

Evolutionary market agents for resource allocation in decentralised systems

We introduce self-interested evolutionary market agents, which act on behalf of service providers in a large decentralised system, to adaptively price their resources over time. Our agents competitively co-evolve in the live market, driving it towards the Bertrand equilibrium, the non-cooperative Nash equilibrium, at which all sellers charge their reserve price and share the market equally. We demonstrate that this outcome results in even load-balancing between the service providers. Our contribution in this paper is twofold; the use of on-line competitive co-evolution of self-interested service providers to drive a decentralised market towards equilibrium, and a demonstration that load-balancing behaviour emerges under the assumptions we describe. Unlike previous studies on this topic, all our agents are entirely self-interested; no cooperation is assumed. This makes our problem a non-trivial and more realistic one.

Proteção em sistemas elétricos com geração distribuída utilizando a transformada wavelet

A typical electrical power system is characterized by centr alization of power gene- ration. However, with the restructuring of the electric sys tem, this topology is changing with the insertion of generators in parallel with the distri bution system (distributed gene- ration) that provides several benefits to be located near to e nergy consumers. Therefore, the integration of distributed generators, especially fro m renewable sources in the Brazi- lian system has been common every year. However, this new sys tem topology may result in new challenges in the field of the power system control, ope ration, and protection. One of the main problems related to the distributed generati on is the islanding formation, witch can result in safety risk to the people and to the power g rid. Among the several islanding protection techniques, passive techniques have low implementation cost and simplicity, requiring only voltage and current measuremen ts to detect system problems. This paper proposes a protection system based on the wavelet transform with overcur- rent and under/overvoltage functions as well as infomation of fault-induced transients in order to provide a fast detection and identification of fault s in the system. The propo- sed protection scheme was evaluated through simulation and experimental studies, with performance similar to the overcurrent and under/overvolt age conventional methods, but with the additional detection of the exact moment of the fault.

Topologia de gerador de distúrbios elétricos baseada em conversores de potência

Electrical disturbances such as voltage sags, interruptions and voltage unbalances might cause serious problems for the end-user and for the companies of generation and transmission of energy. Few years ago, those companies have been using methods and equipments of protection to avoid the disturbances’ presence or to mitigate their effects on the power system. Disturbances generators are used to analyse the behavior of electrical and electronic equipments affected by disturbances. The analysis of those failures allows the development of appropriated protection equipments. In this paper, the development of a disturbances generator based on power converters is presented. The disturbance generator developed is able to generate some symmetrical disturbances, such as: voltage sags, voltage swells and harmonic distortion. The control strategy used in the disturbance generator is based on discrete and repetitive control. The steps of the design of the control and of the filter used for reducing harmonic in the output, are detailed in the text. Are presented the obtained results on computational simulations and the obtained results on laboratory tests.

Utilização da transformada de wavelet para detecção de variações anormais de tensão em sistemas elétricos com geração distribuída

The increasing demand in electricity and decrease forecast, increasingly, of fossil fuel reserves, as well as increasing environmental concern in the use of these have generated a concern about the quality of electricity generation, making it well welcome new investments in generation through alternative, clean and renewable sources. Distributed generation is one of the main solutions for the independent and selfsufficient generating systems, such as the sugarcane industry. This sector has grown considerably, contributing expressively in the production of electricity to the distribution networks. Faced with this situation, one of the main objectives of this study is to propose the implementation of an algorithm to detect islanding disturbances in the electrical system, characterized by situations of under- or overvoltage. The algorithm should also commonly quantize the time that the system was operating in these conditions, to check the possible consequences that will be caused in the electric power system. In order to achieve this it used the technique of wavelet multiresolution analysis (AMR) for detecting the generated disorders. The data obtained can be processed so as to be used for a possible predictive maintenance in the protection equipment of electrical network, since they are prone to damage on prolonged operation under abnormal conditions of frequency and voltage.