Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Land use regulation and productivity - Land matters: Evidence from a UK Supermarket chain

We use store-specific data for a major UK supermarket chain to estimate the impact of planning on store output. Using the quasi-natural experiment of the variation in policies between England and other UK countries, we isolate the impact of Town Centre First policies. We find that space contributes directly to store productivity; and planning policies in England directly reduce output both by reducing store sizes and forcing stores onto less productive sites. We estimate that since the late 1980s planning policies have imposed a loss of output of at least 18.3 to 24.9% - more than a “lost decade’s” growth. JEL codes: D2, L51, L81, R32.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Palaeoparasitology in Japan: discovery of toilet features

The development of palaeoparasitology in Japan has occurred in recent decades. Despite the fact that archaeology in Japan has been slow to develop techniques for excavating ancient toilets, important information about the development of sanitation has been derived from the analysis of a few sites. This shows that the earliest people had very simple methods of sanitation. As populations increased, sanitation became more complex. Ditches surrounding early towns were used for excrement disposal. Eventually distinct toilets were developed followed by cesspit type toilets and flushing toilets. The parasites recovered from these toilets include many species that infect humans today. These parasite spectra reflect local use of aquatic, marine, and land animals. Fecal borne disease was an increasing problem as represented by whipworm and ascarid roundworm eggs. Interestingly, ascarid roundworms were absent in the earliest cultures and only became common with rice agriculture. Finds of pollen and seeds in toilet sediments reveal the use of medicinal plants to control the emerging problem of parasites.

Plasma membrane cyclic nucleotide gated calcium channels control land plant thermal sensing and acquired thermotolerance.

Typically at dawn on a hot summer day, land plants need precise molecular thermometers to sense harmless increments in the ambient temperature to induce a timely heat shock response (HSR) and accumulate protective heat shock proteins in anticipation of harmful temperatures at mid-day. Here, we found that the cyclic nucleotide gated calcium channel (CNGC) CNGCb gene from Physcomitrella patens and its Arabidopsis thaliana ortholog CNGC2, encode a component of cyclic nucleotide gated Ca(2+) channels that act as the primary thermosensors of land plant cells. Disruption of CNGCb or CNGC2 produced a hyper-thermosensitive phenotype, giving rise to an HSR and acquired thermotolerance at significantly milder heat-priming treatments than in wild-type plants. In an aequorin-expressing moss, CNGCb loss-of-function caused a hyper-thermoresponsive Ca(2+) influx and altered Ca(2+) signaling. Patch clamp recordings on moss protoplasts showed the presence of three distinct thermoresponsive Ca(2+) channels in wild-type cells. Deletion of CNGCb led to a total absence of one and increased the open probability of the remaining two thermoresponsive Ca(2+) channels. Thus, CNGC2 and CNGCb are expected to form heteromeric Ca(2+) channels with other related CNGCs. These channels in the plasma membrane respond to increments in the ambient temperature by triggering an optimal HSR, leading to the onset of plant acquired thermotolerance.

Ecological and land use studies along elevational gradients

Mountain regions and UNESCO Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs) encapsulate broad elevational ranges, cover large gradients of geological, topographical and climatic diversity, and thus host greater biodiversity than the surrounding lowlands. Much of the biological richness in MBRs results from the interaction of climatic contrasts and gravitational forces along elevational gradients. External forces such as atmospheric change and human land use interact with these gradients, and result in distinct landscape patchiness, ie mosaics of land cover types within and across elevational belts. The management of MBRs influences land use and land cover, which affects biodiversity and ecosystem processes, both of which provide goods and services to society. Due to their broad environmental and biological diversity, MBRs are ideally suited for global change research and will be increasingly important in illustrating biodiversity conservation. This article summarizes the ecologically relevant results of an international workshop on elevational gradients that aimed to achieve a synthesis of the major ecosystem and biodiversity conditions and drivers in an altitude context. The workshop developed a core research agenda for MBRs that prioritizes long-term research and changes in land use across a broad elevational range.

Malaria entomological risk factors in relation to land cover in the Lower Caura River Basin, Venezuela

To explore the effects of deforestation and resulting differences in vegetation and land cover on entomological parameters, such as anopheline species composition, abundance, biting rate, parity and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), three villages were selected in the Lower Caura River Basin, state of Bolívar, Venezuela. All-night mosquito collections were conducted between March 2008-January 2009 using CDC light traps and Mosquito Magnet(r) Liberty Plus. Human landing catches were performed between 06:00 pm-10:00 pm, when anophelines were most active. Four types of vegetation were identified. The Annual Parasite Index was not correlated with the type of vegetation. The least abundantly forested village had the highest anopheline abundance, biting rate and species diversity. Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari were the most abundant species and were collected in all three villages. Both species showed unique biting cycles. The more abundantly forested village of El Palmar reported the highest EIR. The results confirmed previous observations that the impacts of deforestation and resulting changes in vegetation cover on malaria transmission are complex and vary locally.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Genetic variability in Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi : effect on gene transcription of "Oryza Sativa"

AbstractArbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi (AMF) form obligate symbioses with the majority of land plants. These fungi influence the diversity and productivity of plants. AMF are unusual organisms, harbouring genetically different nuclei in a common cytoplasm (known as heterokaryosis). Genetic variability has been shown between AMF individuals coming from the same population. Recent findings showed that genetic exchange between genetically different AMF individuals was possible. Additionnaly, segregation was shown to occur at spore formation in AMF. These two processes were shown to increase genetic variability between AMF individuals.Because of the difficulty to study these organisms, almost nothing is known about the effect of intra-specific genetic variability in AMF on the plant transcriptome. The aim of this thesis was to bring insights into the effect of intra-specific genetic variability in AMF on plant gene transcription. We demonstrated that genetic exchange could influence expression of some symbiosis specific plant genes and the timing of the colonization of the fungi in plant roots. We also showed that segregation could have a large impact on plant gene transcription. Taken together, these results demonstrated that AMF intra-specific variability could profoundly affect the life of plants by altering various molecular pathways. Moreover, results obtained on rice open a field of research on AMF genetics in impromvment of growth in agricultural plants and should be taken into account for future experiments.RésuméLes champignons endomycorhiziens arbusculaires (CEA) forment une symbiose obligatoire avec la majorité des plantes sur terre. Ces champignons peuvent influencer la diversité et la productivité des plantes avec lesquelles ils forment la symbiose. Les CEA sont des organismes particuliers de part le fait qu'ils possèdent des noyaux génétiquement différents (appelés hétérocaryosis) dans un cytoplasme commun. Il a été montré qu'il existait de la variabilité génétique intra-specific chez les CEA. De plus, des études recentes ont montré que l'échange génétique chez les CEA était possible entre des individus génétiquement différents tout comme la ségrégation qui a aussi été démontrée au moment de la formation des nouvelles spores chez les CEA. Ces deux processus ont été montrés comme pouvant créer aussi de la variabilité génétique intra-specific.Du fait de la difficulté de travailler avec les CEA et à cause de la nouveauté de ces recherches, très peu de choses sont connues sur l'effet de l'échange génétique et de la ségrégation chez les CEA sur les plantes, et particulièrement au niveau moléculaire. Le but de cette thèse a été d'apporter la lumière sur les effets de la viariabilité génétique intra-specific chez les CEA, sur la transcription des gènes chez la plante. Nous avons pu montrer que l'échange génétique pouvait avoir des effets sur l'expression de gènes spécifiques à cette symbiose mais aussi pouvait influencer le timing de colonisation des racines de plantes par les CEA. Nous avons aussi montré que la ségrégation pouvait grandement influencer le transcriptome complet de la plante, et pas seulement les voies métaboliques spécifiques à la symbiose comme cela avait été montré auparavant.L'ensemble de ces résultats démontre l'importance de la variation intra-specific chez les CEA sur les plantes et leur implication sur leur cycle de vie en changeant l'expression de voies métaboliques. De plus, ces résultats obtenus sur le riz ouvrent un champ de recherches sur les plantes destinées à l'agriculture et devraient être pris en compte pour des expériences futures.

Agriculture, technological change and environmental sustainability: Looking for a win-win water policy strategy

This paper analyses the effects that technological changes in agriculture would have on environmental, social and economic indicators. Specifically, our study is focused on two alternative technological improvements: the modernization of water transportation systems versus the increase in the total factor productivity of agriculture. Using a computable general equilibrium model for the Catalan economy, our results suggest that a water policy that leads to greater economic efficiency is not necessarily optimal if we consider social or environmental criteria. Moreover, improving environmental sustainability depends less on the type of technological change than on the institutional framework in which technological change occurs. Keywords: agricultural technological changes, computable general equilibrium model, economic impact, water policy

Safety in vicinity of industrials plants: risk assessment and land use planning

The aim of this book is to survey on different Land Use Planning and safety approaches in vicinity of industrial plants. As this research is associated with three broad fields of Land Use Planning, safety and security, the set principle is to avoid unnecessary and over detailed information, but including the useful ones to provide a comprehensive resource which can be applicable for several purposes. Besides, the proposed method, which is explained in Chapter 7, can initiate a new field for future of Land Use Planning in vicinity of industrial plants.