A piaci likviditás hatása a vállalatokra (The effect of market liquidity for companies)

A 2007-ben kezdődő pénzügyi eredetű világgazdasági válság nyilvánvalóvá tette a kapcsolatot a likviditás két fajtája, a finanszírozási és a piaci likviditás között. A cikk megismertet a piaci likviditással kapcsolatos olyan alapvető fogalmakkal, mint order flow, ajánlati könyv, piaci struktúrák, bemutatja a piaci likviditás dimenzióit, a likviditás néhány mutatószámát és a piaci likviditás stilizált tényeit. A banki likviditáskezelés rövid összefoglalásán túl bevezetést nyújt a portfóliók likviditáskockázat melletti értékelésébe, végezetül összefoglalja, hogy az alapvetően finanszírozási likviditási kockázatnak kitett nem pénzügyi vállalatok hogyan vehetik figyelembe döntéseik meghozatalakor a piaci likviditást. _____________________ The global financial crisis starting in 2007 has showed that the connection between market liquidity and funding liquidity is apparent. This paper introduces the basic notions regarding market liquidity such as order flow, order book, and market structures. The article also presents the various dimensions of market liquidity, several measures of liquidity and the stylized facts of market liquidity. Besides a short description of liquidity management of banks it briefly introduces portfolio valuation in the presence of liquidity risk. Finally, the paper gives insight to non-financial companies, fundamentally exposed to funding liquidity risk, on how to consider market liquidity in their decisions.

Vertikális korlátozások - növelik vagy csökkentik a jólétet? Érvek az irodalomból = Vertical constraints - do they increase or reduce welfare? Arguments in the literature

A vertikális korlátozások témaköre a versenypolitika és -szabályozás egyik legfontosabb, de mindenképpen legtöbb vitát generáló területe. A téma magyar irodalma elsősorban elméleti kérdésekkel foglalkozik, mellőzve a konkrét iránymutatásokat a probléma kezelésére. Először röviden bemutatjuk a vertikális korlátozások indokait és hatásmechanizmusát magyarázó teoretikus irodalmat, felsorolva azok hatékonyságnövelő hatását hangsúlyozó érvrendszereket, illetve a versenykorlátozás lehetőségét tárgyaló modelleket is. Ezután bemutatjuk, hogy milyen fontos empirikus vizsgálatokat végeztek ezen elméletek vizsgálatára, és milyen következtetések vonhatóak le a tapasztalatokból. _________ The field of vertical constraints is one of the most important in competition policy and regulation, but one that generates the most debate. Hungarian literature on the subject deals primarily with theoretical questions, refraining from offering specific guidelines for handling the problem. The paper first covers briefly the causes of the vertical constraints and the Hungarian theoretical literature on its effective mechanism, listing the system of arguments that point to its effect of increasing efficiency and the models that discuss the possibility of limiting competition. The paper then presents the major empirical examinations made of these theories and the conclusions drawn from that experience.

A vállalati likviditásmenedzsment számviteli támogatása (Accounting support for company’s liquidity management)

A cikk kiindulópontja, hogy a kettős könyvvitelt vezető vállalkozások által kötelezően elkészítendő éves pénzügyi kimutatások (számviteli beszámolók) olyan információbázist jelentenek, amelyek segítséget nyújthatnak egyrészről a vállalati likviditásmenedzsment támogatásához, másrészről a vállalkozások likviditási helyzetének megítéléséhez. A cikk első fele felvázolja a vállalkozások pénzügyi helyzetét bemutató adatok számviteli kereteit, bemutatja a likviditás fogalmának egyes értelmezéseit, majd részletesen kitér arra, hogy a likviditás utólagos vizsgálatához, illetve előrejelzéséhez milyen korrekciókat kell (lehet) végezni a számviteli beszámoló adatain. A cikk második fele az elemzés lehetséges módjait és eszközeit veszi számba, kitérve a statikus és dinamikus elemzés közötti különbségek bemutatására, az egyes mutatók számításának lehetséges módjaira és értelmezésükre, mindvégig szem előtt tartva az alkalmazás korlátait. ________ The study examines how information provided by accounting information systems could support companies’ liquidity management. The starting point is that compulsory financial statements prepared by economic entities embody an adequate information basis, which could help liquidity management as well as the judgement of liquidity. The first part of the study introduces the various interpretations of liquidity and gives a detailed description of the adjustments that need to be made on accounting data for an a posteriori examination of liquidity and to be able to forecast liquidity. The second part discusses the possible means and tools of analysis, including the differences between static and dynamic methods and the calculation and interpretation of the various ratios widely used by professionals. The conclusion is that there is no best-practice method or ratio, but rather a wide range of tools is to be used when one is willing to gain a complex and comprehensive insight about an entity’s liquidity.

Volt-e likviditási válság? Volatilitás és likviditás kapcsolatának vizsgálata (Was there a liquidity crisis? Analysis the relationship between volatility and liquidity)

Széleskörűen alátámasztott, empirikus tény, hogy önmagában a nagyobb volatilitás csökkenti a piac likviditását, vagyis változékonyabb piacokon várhatóan nagyobb lesz egy-egy tranzakció áreltérítő hatása. Kutatásomban azt a kérdést vizsgáltam, hogy a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén az OTP-részvény piacán a 2007/2008-as válságban tapasztalható, átmeneti likviditáscsökkenés betudható volt-e egyszerűen a megnövekedett volatilitásnak, vagy ezen túl abban más tényezők (pl. a szereplők körének és viselkedésének drasztikus megváltozása, általános forráscsökkenés stb.) is szerepet játszhattak-e. A volatilitást a loghozamok szórásával, illetve a tényleges ársávval, míg az illikviditást a Budapesti Likviditási Mértékkel (BLM) reprezentáltam. Egyrészt azt állapítottam meg, hogy az OTP esetében a tényleges ársáv szorosabban korrelál a BLM-mel, mint a szórás. Másrészt az is egyértelmű, hogy a válság előtti kapcsolat a volatilitás és a likviditás között a válságban és azután már jelentősen megváltozott. Válságban az illikviditás jóval nagyobb volt, mint amit a volatilitás növekedése alapján vártunk, a válság lecsengése után azonban megfordult ez a reláció. _________ It is a widely supported empirical fact, that the greater volatility in itself decreases the liquidity of the market, namely more volatile a market is, the higher a transaction’s price impact will be. I have examined in my paper the question, whether the decrease of liquidity during the crisis of 2007/2008 in case of the OTP stock – traded on the Budapest Stock Exchange – was the consequence of the increased volatility, or other factors had an effect on the illiquidity as well (e.g.: the drastic change of market participants’ behaviour; reduction of fi nancing sources; etc.). I have represented volatility with the standard deviation of the logreturns, and with the true range, while the illiquidity with the Budapest Liquidity Measure (BLM). On one hand I have identifi ed, that in case of the OTP, the true range has a stronger relationship with the BLM than the standard deviation has. On the other hand it was clear, that the relationship between volatility and liquidity has changed notably during and after the crisis. During crisis the illiquidity was greater than what I have estimated based on the volatility increase, but after the crisis this relation has changed.

Measuring and managing liquidity risk in the Hungarian practice

The crisis that unfolded in 2007/2008 turned the attention of the financial world toward liquidity, the lack of which caused substantial losses. As a result, the need arose for the traditional financial models to be extended with liquidity. Our goal is to discover how Hungarian market players relate to liquidity. Our results are obtained through a series of semi-structured interviews, and are hoped to be a starting point for extending the existing models in an appropriate way. Our main results show that different investor groups can be identified along their approaches to liquidity, and they rarely use sophisticated models to measure and manage liquidity. We conclude that although market players would have access to complex liquidity measurement and management tools, there is a limited need for these, because the currently available models are unable to use complex liquidity information effectively.

Measuring and managing liquidity risk in the Hungarian practice

The crisis that unfolded in 2007/2008 turned the attention of the financial world toward liquidity, the lack of which caused substantial losses. As a result, the need arose for the traditional financial models to be extended with liquidity. Our goal is to discover how Hungarian market players relate to liquidity. Our results are obtained through a series of semistructured interviews, and are hoped to be a starting point for extending the existing models in an appropriate way. Our main results show that different investor groups can be identified along their approaches to liquidity, and they rarely use sophisticated models to measure and manage liquidity. We conclude that although market players would have access to complex liquidity measurement and management tools, there is a limited need for these, because the currently available models are unable to use complex liquidity information effectively.

Financial constraints on research and development

This dissertation examines whether-there exists financial constraints and, if so, their implications for investment in research and development expenditures. It develops a theoretical model of credit rationing and research and development in which both are determined simultaneously and endogenously. The model provides a useful tool to examine different policies that may help alleviate the negative the effect of financial constraints faced by firms.^ The empirical evidence presented deals with two different cases, namely, the motor vehicle industry in Germany (1970-1990) and the electrical machinery industry In Spain (1975-1990).^ The innovation in the empirical analysis is that it follows a novel approach to identify events that allow us to isolate the effect of financial constraints in the determination of research and development.^ Further, empirical evidence is presented to show that in the above two cases financial constraints affect investment in physical capital as well.^ The empirical evidence presented supports the results of the theoretical model developed in this dissertation, showing that financial constraints negatively affect the rate of growth of innovation by reducing the intensity of research and development activity. ^

Liquidity and asset pricing: A comparison between three-factor and three-moment capital asset pricing models

Liquidity is an important attribute of an asset that investors would like to take into consideration when making investment decisions. However, the previous empirical evidence whether liquidity is a determinant of stock return is not unanimous. This dissertation provides a very comprehensive study about the role of liquidity in asset pricing using the Fama-French (1993) three-factor and Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) three-moment CAPM as models for risk adjustment. The relationship between liquidity and well-known determinants of stock returns such as size and book-to-market are also investigated. This study examines the liquidity and asset pricing issues for both intertemporal as well as cross-sectional data. ^ The results indicate an existence of a liquidity premium, i.e., less liquid stocks would demand higher rate of return than more liquid stocks. More specifically, a drop of 1 percent in liquidity is associated with a higher rate of return of about 2 to 3 basis points per month. Further investigation reveals that neither the Fama-French three-factor model nor the three-moment CAPM captures the liquidity premium. Finally, the results show that well-known determinants of stock return such as size and book-to-market do not serve as proxy for liquidity. ^ Overall, this dissertation shows that a liquidity premium exists in the stock market and that liquidity is a distinct effect, and is not influenced by the presence of non-market factors, market factors and other stock characteristics.^

A theory of constraints service systems improvement method: Case of the airline turnaround problem

This dissertation develops a process improvement method for service operations based on the Theory of Constraints (TOC), a management philosophy that has been shown to be effective in manufacturing for decreasing WIP and improving throughput. While TOC has enjoyed much attention and success in the manufacturing arena, its application to services in general has been limited. The contribution to industry and knowledge is a method for improving global performance measures based on TOC principles. The method proposed in this dissertation will be tested using discrete event simulation based on the scenario of the service factory of airline turnaround operations. To evaluate the method, a simulation model of aircraft turn operations of a U.S. based carrier was made and validated using actual data from airline operations. The model was then adjusted to reflect an application of the Theory of Constraints for determining how to deploy the scarce resource of ramp workers. The results indicate that, given slight modifications to TOC terminology and the development of a method for constraint identification, the Theory of Constraints can be applied with success to services. Bottlenecks in services must be defined as those processes for which the process rates and amount of work remaining are such that completing the process will not be possible without an increase in the process rate. The bottleneck ratio is used to determine to what degree a process is a constraint. Simulation results also suggest that redefining performance measures to reflect a global business perspective of reducing costs related to specific flights versus the operational local optimum approach of turning all aircraft quickly results in significant savings to the company. Savings to the annual operating costs of the airline were simulated to equal 30% of possible current expenses for misconnecting passengers with a modest increase in utilization of the workers through a more efficient heuristic of deploying them to the highest priority tasks. This dissertation contributes to the literature on service operations by describing a dynamic, adaptive dispatch approach to manage service factory operations similar to airline turnaround operations using the management philosophy of the Theory of Constraints.

Seagrass sediments as a global carbon sink: Isotopic constraints

Seagrass meadows are highly productive habitats found along many of the world's coastline, providing important services that support the overall functioning of the coastal zone. The organic carbon that accumulates in seagrass meadows is derived not only from seagrass production but from the trapping of other particles, as the seagrass canopies facilitate sedimentation and reduce resuspension. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data to obtain a better understanding of the relative contribution of seagrass and other possible sources of organic matter that accumulate in the sediments of seagrass meadows. The data set includes 219 paired analyses of the carbon isotopic composition of seagrass leaves and sediments from 207 seagrass sites at 88 locations worldwide. Using a three source mixing model and literature values for putative sources, we calculate that the average proportional contribution of seagrass to the surface sediment organic carbon pool is ∼50%. When using the best available estimates of carbon burial rates in seagrass meadows, our data indicate that between 41 and 66 gC m−2 yr−1 originates from seagrass production. Using our global average for allochthonous carbon trapped in seagrass sediments together with a recent estimate of global average net community production, we estimate that carbon burial in seagrass meadows is between 48 and 112 Tg yr−1, showing that seagrass meadows are natural hot spots for carbon sequestration.

Liquidity, governance and adverse selection in asset pricing

A plethora of recent literature on asset pricing provides plenty of empirical evidence on the importance of liquidity, governance and adverse selection of equity on pricing of assets together with more traditional factors such as market beta and the Fama-French factors. However, literature has usually stressed that these factors are priced individually. In this dissertation we argue that these factors may be related to each other, hence not only individual but also joint tests of their significance is called for. ^ In the three related essays, we examine the liquidity premium in the context of the finer three-digit SIC industry classification, joint importance of liquidity and governance factors as well as governance and adverse selection. Recent studies by Core, Guay and Rusticus (2006) and Ben-Rephael, Kadan and Wohl (2010) find that governance and liquidity premiums are dwindling in the last few years. One reason could be that liquidity is very unevenly distributed across industries. This could affect the interpretation of prior liquidity studies. Thus, in the first chapter we analyze the relation of industry clustering and liquidity risk following a finer industry classification suggested by Johnson, Moorman and Sorescu (2009). In the second chapter, we examine the dwindling influence of the governance factor if taken simultaneously with liquidity. We argue that this happens since governance characteristics are potentially a proxy for information asymmetry that may be better captured by market liquidity of a company's shares. Hence, we jointly examine both the factors, namely, governance and liquidity - in a series of standard asset pricing tests. Our results reconfirm the importance of governance and liquidity in explaining stock returns thus independently corroborating the findings of Amihud (2002) and Gompers, Ishii and Metrick (2003). Moreover, governance is not subsumed by liquidity. Lastly, we analyze the relation of governance and adverse selection, and again corroborate previous findings of a priced governance factor. Furthermore, we ascertain the importance of microstructure measures in asset pricing by employing Huang and Stoll's (1997) method to extract an adverse selection variable and finding evidence for its explanatory power in four-factor regressions.^

Modes of sapropel formation in the eastern Mediterranean: some constraints based on pyrite properties

Pyrite formation within and directly below sapropels in the eastern Mediterranean was governed by the relative rates of sulphide production and Fe liberation and supply to the organic-rich layers. At times of relatively high [SO4]2- reduction, sulphide could diffuse downward from the sapropel and formed pyrite in underlying sediments. The sources of Fe for pyrite formation comprised detrital Fe and diagenetically liberated Fe(II) from sapropel-underlying sediments. In organic-rich sapropels, input of Fe from the water column via Fe sulphide formation in the water may have been important as well. Rapid pyrite formation at high saturation levels resulted in the formation of framboidal pyrite within the sapropels, whereas below the sapropels slow euhedral pyrite formation at low saturation levels occurred. d34S values of pyrite are -33 per mil to -50 per mil. Below the sapropels d34S is lower than within the sapropels, as a result of increased sulphide re-oxidation at times of relatively high sulphide production and concentration when sulphide could escape from the sediment. The percentage of initially formed sulphide that was re-oxidized was estimated from organic carbon fluxes and burial efficiencies in the sediment. It ranges from 34% to 80%, varying significantly between sapropels. Increased palaeoproductivity as well as enhanced preservation contributed to magnified accumulation of organic matter in sapropels.

Patch selection behaviour in the presence of environmental constraints

Habitat selection behaviour is the primary way in which organisms are able to regulate encounters with their biotic and abiotic environment. An individual chooses an area that best meets their current needs, particularly regarding safety and the presence of high-quality food. Several physical aspects of the environment can make it difficult for individuals to assess the relative habitat quality of the areas available, thus leading to suboptimal habitat selection. In this thesis, I investigated the way in which two aquatic habitat constraints - obstacles to movement between patches and turbidity - affected the ability of fish to make optimal patch choices, using threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus as a model species. Laboratory experiments showed that when movement between patches was hindered by increasingly challenging obstacles, groups of stickleback did not move as freely between the patches, and thus had greater deviations from the predictions of the Ideal Free Distribution (IFD). I also demonstrated that, unlike other species, stickleback do not use turbid environments to avoid predator detection. A trend was seen towards avoidance of a turbid food patch regardless of risk level, although this was not statistically significant. As expected, the stickleback avoided feeding in the presence of a predator regardless of water clarity. Overall, I found that both turbidity and movement constraints can have significant impacts on patch use and distribution in the threespine stickleback. Both turbidity and ease of transit will impact the distribution of ecologically important species like the threespine stickleback, and therefore should be taken into account when studying habitat selection in the wild.

Far-infrared constraints on the contamination by dust-obscured galaxies of high-z dropout searches

The spectral energy distributions (SED) of dusty galaxies at intermediate redshift may look similar to very high-redshift galaxies in the optical/near infrared (NIR) domain. This can lead to the contamination of high-redshift galaxy searches based on broad-band optical/NIR photometry by lower redshift dusty galaxies because both kind of galaxies cannot be distinguished. The contamination rate could be as high as 50%. This work shows how the far-infrared (FIR) domain can help to recognize likely low-z interlopers in an optical/NIR search for high-z galaxies. We analyze the FIR SEDs of two galaxies that are proposed to be very high-redshift (z > 7) dropout candidates based on deep Hawk-I/VLT observations. The FIR SEDs are sampled with PACS/Herschel at 100 and 160 μm, with SPIRE/Herschel at 250, 350 and 500 μm and with LABOCA/APEX at 870 μm. We find that redshifts > 7 would imply extreme FIR SEDs (with dust temperatures >100 K and FIR luminosities >10^13 L_⊙). At z ~ 2, instead, the SEDs of both sources would be compatible with those of typical ultra luminous infrared galaxies or submillimeter galaxies. Considering all available data for these sources from visible to FIR we re-estimate the redshifts and find z ~ 1.6–2.5. Owing to the strong spectral breaks observed in these galaxies, standard templates from the literature fail to reproduce the visible-to-near-IR part of the SEDs even when additional extinction is included. These sources strongly resemble dust-obscured galaxies selected in Spitzer observations with extreme visible-to-FIR colors, and the galaxy GN10 at z = 4. Galaxies with similar SEDs could contaminate other high-redshift surveys.