A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Learning to lead for business growth – implications for supporting SMEs in Wales

The Welsh private and third sectors are heavily dependent on SMEs. Consequently the performance of SMEs is critical to the performance of the Welsh economy. Substantial public funds, particularly from European Structural Funds, have been allocated to support these since 2000. The majority of programmes thus funded have been led from within the Welsh Government. This paper reports interim evaluation findings from one intervention led by two Welsh higher education institutions (HEIs), namely the LEAD Wales programme. The programme is an extended intervention to support the leadership skills of owner-managers and incorporates a range of learning methods, including formal masterclasses, but emphasizes situated and experiential learning through action learning, coaching and peer-to-peer exchange exercises. The programme’s impact is assessed on the experiences of 325 participants, of whom 217 have completed the programme. The paper concludes that situated learning methods, through which participants are able to draw from shared history and experience over an extended period are critical to programme success. By contrast, short-term thematic teaching, based around more formal, hierarchical learning is less likely to yield significant and sustainable economic benefits. The implications of this for business support in Wales are discussed.

Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sector transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agro-processing, the emergence of “consumption cities” and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Discovering biomarkers for antidepressant response: protocol from the Canadian biomarker integration network in depression (CAN-BIND) and clinical characteristics of the first patient cohort

Background Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is among the most prevalent and disabling medical conditions worldwide. Identification of clinical and biological markers (“biomarkers”) of treatment response could personalize clinical decisions and lead to better outcomes. This paper describes the aims, design, and methods of a discovery study of biomarkers in antidepressant treatment response, conducted by the Canadian Biomarker Integration Network in Depression (CAN-BIND). The CAN-BIND research program investigates and identifies biomarkers that help to predict outcomes in patients with MDD treated with antidepressant medication. The primary objective of this initial study (known as CAN-BIND-1) is to identify individual and integrated neuroimaging, electrophysiological, molecular, and clinical predictors of response to sequential antidepressant monotherapy and adjunctive therapy in MDD. Methods CAN-BIND-1 is a multisite initiative involving 6 academic health centres working collaboratively with other universities and research centres. In the 16-week protocol, patients with MDD are treated with a first-line antidepressant (escitalopram 10–20 mg/d) that, if clinically warranted after eight weeks, is augmented with an evidence-based, add-on medication (aripiprazole 2–10 mg/d). Comprehensive datasets are obtained using clinical rating scales; behavioural, dimensional, and functioning/quality of life measures; neurocognitive testing; genomic, genetic, and proteomic profiling from blood samples; combined structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging; and electroencephalography. De-identified data from all sites are aggregated within a secure neuroinformatics platform for data integration, management, storage, and analyses. Statistical analyses will include multivariate and machine-learning techniques to identify predictors, moderators, and mediators of treatment response. Discussion From June 2013 to February 2015, a cohort of 134 participants (85 outpatients with MDD and 49 healthy participants) has been evaluated at baseline. The clinical characteristics of this cohort are similar to other studies of MDD. Recruitment at all sites is ongoing to a target sample of 290 participants. CAN-BIND will identify biomarkers of treatment response in MDD through extensive clinical, molecular, and imaging assessments, in order to improve treatment practice and clinical outcomes. It will also create an innovative, robust platform and database for future research.

Iron deficiency anaemia and blood lead concentrations in Brazilian children

This study investigated the relationship between iron deficiency/iron deficiency anaemia, assessed by several parameters, and blood lead concentration in children. This cross-sectional study involved 384 Brazilian children, aged 2-11 years, who lived near a lead-manipulating industry. Complete blood counts were obtained by an automated cell counter. Serum iron, total iron binding capacity (TIBC) and ferritin were determined respectively, by colorimetric, turbidimetric methods and chemiluminescence. Blood lead was measured by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The impact of several parameters for assessment of iron status (haemoglobin, serum iron, TIBC, transferrin saturation, ferritin, red cell indices and red cell distribution width) and variables (gender, age, mother`s education, income, body mass index, iron intake, and distance from home to lead-manipulating industry) on blood lead concentration was determined by multiple linear regression. There were significant negative associations between blood lead and the distance from home to the lead-manipulating industry (P < 0.001), Hb (P = 0.019), and ferritin (P=0.023) (R(2)=0.14). Based on these results, further epidemiological studies are necessary to investigate the impact of interventions like iron supplementation or fortification, as an attempt to decrease blood lead in children. (C) 2011 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of environmental burden of lead in children using teeth as bioindicator

The south region of Sao Paulo city hosts the Guarapiranga dam, responsible for water supply to 25% of the city population. Their surroundings have been subject to intense and irregular occupation by people from very low socioeconomics classes. Measurements undertaken on sediment and particulate materials in the dam revealed concentrations of lead. copper, zinc and cadmium above internationally accepted limits. Epidemiological and toxicological studies undertaken by the World Health Organization in individuals exhibiting lead concentrations in blood, near or below the maximum recommended (10 mu g dl(-1)), surprisingly revealed that toxic effects are more intense in individuals belonging to low socioeconomics classes. Motivated by these facts, we aimed at the investigation of chronic incorporation of lead. as well as the use of our BIOKINETICS code, which is based on an accepted ICRP biokinetics model for lead, in order to extrapolate the results from teeth to other organs. The focus of our data taking was children from poor families, living in a small, restrict and allegedly contaminated area in Sao Paulo city. Thus, a total of 74 human teeth were collected. The average concentration of lead in teeth of children 5 to 10 years old was determined by means of a high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). For standardization of the measurements, an animal bone certified material (H-Animal Bone), from the International Atomic Energy Agency, was analyzed. The amount of lead in children living in the surroundings of the dam, was approximately 40% higher than those from the control region, and the average lead concentration was equal to 1.3 mu g g(-1) approximately. Grouping the results in terms of gender, tooth type and condition, it was concluded that a carious molar of boys is a much more efficient contamination pathway for lead, resulting in concentrations 70% higher than in the control region. We also inferred the average concentrations of lead in other organs of these children, by making use of our BIOKINETIC code. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opinion dynamics of learning agents: does seeking consensus lead to disagreement?

We study opinion dynamics in a population of interacting adaptive agents voting on a set of issues represented by vectors. We consider agents who can classify issues into one of two categories and can arrive at their opinions using an adaptive algorithm. Adaptation comes from learning and the information for the learning process comes from interacting with other neighboring agents and trying to change the internal state in order to concur with their opinions. The change in the internal state is driven by the information contained in the issue and in the opinion of the other agent. We present results in a simple yet rich context where each agent uses a Boolean perceptron to state their opinion. If the update occurs with information asynchronously exchanged among pairs of agents, then the typical case, if the number of issues is kept small, is the evolution into a society torn by the emergence of factions with extreme opposite beliefs. This occurs even when seeking consensus with agents with opposite opinions. If the number of issues is large, the dynamics becomes trapped, the society does not evolve into factions and a distribution of moderate opinions is observed. The synchronous case is technically simpler and is studied by formulating the problem in terms of differential equations that describe the evolution of order parameters that measure the consensus between pairs of agents. We show that for a large number of issues and unidirectional information flow, global consensus is a fixed point; however, the approach to this consensus is glassy for large societies.

Is the electrochemically-induced crystallization in lead oxifluoroborate glasses indeed an electrode- or/and an electric field-promoted phenomenon?

While evidence of ion reduction at the cathode has been given, proof of anode activity, in order to account completely for the redox-type electrochemical mechanism so far postulated to originate the electric field-induced non-spontaneous crystallization observed in glasses, is still lacking. This study demonstrates that direct contact of both cathode and anode electrodes with the material is mandatory to promote crystal nucleation. The electrochemical process of concern is established here to involve a solid-state process, electrolytic in nature. (C) 2008 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence of fluoride oxidation for development of the electrochemically-induced crystallization observed in lead oxyfluoroborate glasses

This work reports on a distinct experimental procedure conceived to closely approach the question of development of crystallization in lead oxyfluoroborate glasses in the presence of an electric field. After proposing earlier that this phenomenon should involve occurrence of redox-type electrochemical reactions occurring at the electrodes. it was in fact recently shown that a direct contact of the glasses with both the cathode and anode revealed essential, provided that crystallization did not develop when ions migration to these electrodes became frustrated. The present study demonstrates that. even in Pt,Ag/Glass/YSZ:PbF(2)/Ag,Pt-type electrochemical cells subjected to electric field action, where YSZ:PbF(2) represents composite-like mixtures (formed by Y(2)O(3)-doped ZrO(2) and PbF(2)) placed between the glass and anode. crystallization was observable in given cases. In summary, supported by (micro)structural and electrical characterizations, clear evidence is provided here that, besides Pb(2+) reduction at the cathode, crystallization really involves simultaneous F(-) oxidation at the anode, completing thus the whole redox electrochemical reaction so far postulated. In these cases, F(-) migration to the anode was achievable following PbF(2) percolative-like paths through the YSZ:PbF(2) mixtures. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Third-order nonlinearity of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass

The third-order optical susceptibility and dispersion of the linear refractive index of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass were measured in the wavelength range between 400 and 1940 nm by using the spectrally resolved femtosecond Maker fringes technique. The nonlinear refractive index obtained from the third-order susceptibility was found to be five times higher than that of silica, indicating that Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass is a potential candidate to be used as the base component for the fabrication of photonic devices. For comparison purposes, the Z-scan technique was also employed to obtain the values of the nonlinear refractive index of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass at several wavelengths, and the values obtained using the two techniques agree to within 15%.

Preparation and structural characterization of rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate ceramics

A new preparation route towards rare-earth (RE) doped polycrystalline lead lanthanum zirconate titanate (PLZT) ceramics (RE = Y(3+), Nd(3+), Yb(3+)), based on the use of doped lanthanum oxide or zirconia, is reported. Structural characterization by X-ray powder diffraction reveals that secondary phase formation can be substantially diminished in comparison to conventional preparation methods. The distribution of the rare-earth dopants was investigated as a function of concentration by static (207)Pb spin echo NMR spectra, using Fourier Transformation of Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill spin echo trains. For the Nd- and Yb-doped materials, the interaction of the (207)Pb nuclei with the unpaired electron spin density results in significant broadening and shifting of the NMR signal, whereas these effects are absent in the diamagnetic Y(3+) doped materials. Based on different concentration dependences of the NMR lineshape parameters, we conclude that the structural role of the Nd(3+) dopants differs significantly from that of Yb(3+). While the Nd(3+) ions appear to be statistically distributed in the PLZT lattice, incorporation of Yb(3+) into PLZT appears to be limited by the appearance of doped cubic zirconia as a secondary phase. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Solid state NMR as a new approach for the structural characterization of rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate laser ceramics

To facilitate the design of laser host materials with optimized emission properties, detailed structural information at the atomic level is essential, regarding the local bonding environment of the active ions (distribution over distinct lattice sites) and their extent of local clustering as well as their population distribution over separate micro- or nanophases. The present study explores the potential of solid state NMR spectroscopy to provide such understanding for rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate (PLZT) ceramics. As the NMR signals of the paramagnetic dopant species cannot be observed directly, two complementary approaches are utilized: (1) direct observation of diamagnetic mimics using Sc-45 NMR and (2) study of the paramagnetic interaction of the constituent host lattice nuclei with the rare-earth dopant, using Pb-207 NMR lineshape analysis. Sc-45 MAS NMR spectra of scandium-doped PLZT samples unambiguously reveal scandium to be six-coordinated, suggesting that this rare-earth ion substitutes in the B site. Static Pb-207 spin echo NMR spectra of a series of Tm-doped PLZT samples reveal a clear influence of paramagnetic rare-earth dopant concentration on the NMR lineshape. In the latter case high-fidelity spectra can be obtained by spin echo mapping under systematic incrementation of the excitation frequency, benefiting from the signal-to-noise enhancement afforded by spin echo train Fourier transforms. Consistent with XRD data, the Pb-207 NMR lineshape analysis suggests that statistical incorporation into the PLZT lattice occurs at dopant levels of up to 1 wt.% Tm3+, while at higher levels the solubility limit is reached. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Lead(II)-induced formation and coordination of 3,4-dihydro-3-thioxo-1,2,4-triazin-5(2H)-one

Cyclization of (n)butyl glyoxylate thiosemicarbazone (HBuTSC) under reflux in the presence of Pb(OAc)(2) led to tile formation of the complex [Pb(HTz)(2)] (H(2)Tz = 3,4-dihydro-3-thioxo-1,2,4-triazin-5(2H)-one), which after recrystallization from DMSO afforded the polymer [Pb(Tz)](n), the first example of a Tz(2-) metal complex. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lead and aluminum bonding in Pb-Al metaphosphate glasses

The bonding properties of cations in phosphate glasses determine many short- and medium-range structural features in the glass network, hence influencing bulk properties. In this work, Pb-Al-metaphosphate glasses (1 - x)Pb-(PO(3))(2)center dot xAI(PO(3))(3) with 0 <= - x <= 1 were analyzed to determine the effect of the substitution of Pb by Al on the glass structure in the metaphosphate composition. The glass transition temperature and density were measured as a function of the Al concentration. The vibrational and structural properties were probed by Raman spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance of (31)P, (27)Al, and (207)Pb. Aluminum incorporates homogeneously in the glass creating a stiffer and less packed network. The average coordination number for Al decreases from 5.9 to 5.0 as x increases from 0.1 to 1, indicating more covalent Al-O bonds. The coordination number of Pb in these glasses is greater than 8, showing an increasing ionic behavior for compositions richer in Al. A quantitative analysis of the phosphate speciation shows definite trends in the bonding of AlO(n) groups and phosphate tetrahedra. In glasses with x < 0.48, phosphate groups share preferentially only one nonbridging O corner with an AlO(n) coordination polyhedron. For x > 0.48 more than one nonbridging O can be linked to AlO(n) polyhedra. There is no corner sharing of O between AlO(n) and PbO(n) polyhedra nor between AlO(n) themselves throughout the compositional range. The PbO(n) coordination polyhedra show considerable nonbridging O sharing, with each O participating in the coordination sphere of at least two Pb. The bonding preferences determined for Al are consistent with the behavior observed in Na-Al and Ca-Al metaphosphates, indicating this may be a general behavior for ternary phosphate glasses.

Insights into the dynamics and sources of atmospheric lead and particulate matter in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from high temporal resolution sampling

We present the first results of a study investigating the processes that control concentrations and sources of Pb and particulate matter in the atmosphere of Sao Paulo City Brazil Aerosols were collected with high temporal resolution (3 hours) during a four-day period in July 2005 The highest Pb concentrations measured coincided with large fireworks during celebration events and associated to high traffic occurrence Our high-resolution data highlights the impact that a singular transient event can have on air quality even in a megacity Under meteorological conditions non-conducive to pollutant dispersion Pb and particulate matter concentrations accumulated during the night leading to the highest concentrations in aerosols collected early in the morning of the following day The stable isotopes of Pb suggest that emissions from traffic remain an Important source of Pb in Sao Paulo City due to the large traffic fleet despite low Pb concentrations in fuels (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved