Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Quantitative studies of lower motor neuron degeneration in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis : Evidence for exponential decay of motor unit numbers and greatest rate of loss at the site of onset

Objective: To use our Bayesian method of motor unit number estimation (MUNE) to evaluate lower motor neuron degeneration in ALS. Methods: In subjects with ALS we performed serial MUNE studies. We examined the repeatability of the test and then determined whether the loss of MUs was fitted by an exponential or Weibull distribution. Results: The decline in motor unit (MU) numbers was well-fitted by an exponential decay curve. We calculated the half life of MUs in the abductor digiti minimi (ADM), abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and/or extensor digitorum brevis (EDB) muscles. The mean half life of the MUs of ADM muscle was greater than those of the APB or EDB muscles. The half-life of MUs was less in the ADM muscle of subjects with upper limb than in those with lower limb onset. Conclusions: The rate of loss of lower motor neurons in ALS is exponential, the motor units of the APB decay more quickly than those of the ADM muscle and the rate of loss of motor units is greater at the site of onset of disease. Significance: This shows that the Bayesian MUNE method is useful in following the course and exploring the clinical features of ALS. 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Large body size in an island-dwelling bird : a microevolutionary analysis

Island races of passerine birds display repeated evolution towards larger body size compared with their continental ancestors. The Capricorn silvereye (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus) has become up to six phenotypic standard deviations bigger in several morphological measures since colonization of an island approximately 4000 years ago. We estimated the genetic variance-covariance (G) matrix using full-sib and 'animal model' analyses, and selection gradients, for six morphological traits under field conditions in three consecutive cohorts of nestlings. Significant levels of genetic variance were found for all traits. Significant directional selection was detected for wing and tail lengths in one year and quadratic selection on culmen depth in another year. Although selection gradients on many traits were negative, the predicted evolutionary response to selection of these traits for all cohorts was uniformly positive. These results indicate that the G matrix and predicted evolutionary responses are consistent with those of a population evolving in the manner observed in the island passerine trend, that is, towards larger body size.

Miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth: Large variations in rates within a cohort of Australian women

Objectives We aimed to use simple clinical questions to group women and provide their specific rates of miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth for reference. Further, our purpose was to describe who has experienced particularly low or high rates of each event. Methods Data were collected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, a national prospective cohort. Reproductive histories were obtained from 5806 women aged 31–36 years in 2009, who had self-reported an outcome for one or more pregnancy. Age at first birth, number of live births, smoking status, fertility problems, use of in vitro fertilisation (IVF), education and physical activity were the variables that best separated women into groups for calculating the rates of miscarriage, preterm delivery, and stillbirth. Results Women reported 10,247 live births, 2544 miscarriages, 1113 preterm deliveries, and 113 stillbirths. Miscarriage was correlated with stillbirth (r = 0.09, P<0.001). The calculable rate of miscarriage ranged from 11.3 to 86.5 miscarriages per 100 live births. Women who had high rates of miscarriage typically had fewer live births, were more likely to smoke and were more likely to have tried unsuccessfully to conceive for ≥12 months. The highest proportion of live preterm delivery (32.2%) occurred in women who had one live birth, had tried unsuccessfully to conceive for ≥12 months, had used IVF, and had 12 years education or equivalent. Women aged 14–19.99 years at their first birth and reported low physical activity had 38.9 stillbirths per 1000 live births, compared to the lowest rate at 5.5 per 1000 live births. Conclusion Different groups of women experience vastly different rates of each adverse pregnancy event. We have used simple questions and established reference data that will stratify women into low- and high-rate groups, which may be useful in counselling those who have experienced miscarriage, preterm delivery, or stillbirth, plus women with fertility intent.

Multi-cursor multi-user mobile interaction with a large shared display

When using a mobile device to control a cursor on a large shared display, the interaction must be carefully planned to match the environment and purpose of the systems use. We describe a ‘democratic jukebox’ system that revealed five recommendations that should be considered when designing this type of interaction relating to providing feedback to the user; how to represent users in a multi-cursor based system; where people tend to look and their expectation of how to move their cursor; the orientation of screens and the social context; and, the use of simulated users to give the real users a sense that they are engaging with a greater audience.

Analysis of a negatively buoyant jet

The behavior of plane fountains, resulting from the injection of dense fluid (water) upwards into a large container of homogeneous fluid of lower density (air),was investigated. In this study the behavior of fountains was examined numerically and experimentally for different Froude and Reynolds numbers. The flow rate and nozzle diameter of the inlet of the fountain was varied to cover a wide range of Reynolds and Froude numbers. The effect of inclination angle of the inlet for different nozzle diameter and flow rate on fountain behavior was observed. It was found that the height of the fountain greatly depends on Froude number. An empirical correlation was developed for non-dimensional fountain height with Froude number. However the non-dimensional fountain height can more accurately be represented when regressed with both Reynolds and Froude number by the following relationship H/r=exp(5.94)*Re^-0.72*Fr^2.26. The result are compared with previous numerical and experimental results and found to be consistent.

Fertility and infertility : studies in reproductive epidemiology in Australia

Worldwide, there are few large-scale epidemiological studies on infertility. In Australia, population-based research on infertility is limited to a few small-scale studies. Therefore, the prevalence of infertility and unmet need for specialist medical advice and treatment cannot be estimated reliably. Women who have used assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are recorded in treatment registries. However, there are many infertile women who are excluded from these clinical populations because they neither seek advice nor use treatment. The thesis was based on a biopsychosocial model of health and used the methods of reproductive epidemiology to address the lack of national data on the prevalence of infertility in Australia. Firstly, numbers of births and pregnancy losses were investigated in two generations of women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH). The ALSWH is a broad-ranging, longitudinal examination of biological, psychological and social factors that impact on women’s health and wellbeing. Women from three age cohorts were randomly sampled from the population using the universal public health insurance (i.e., Medicare) database and ALSWH participants were representative of the female population. However, the studies in the thesis only involved data from two cohorts. The younger cohort were born in 1973-78 and completed up to four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years, n=14247) and 2006 (28-33 years, n=9145). The mid-aged cohort were born in 1946-51 and completed four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 45-50 years n=13715) and 2004 (53-58 years, n=10905). Compared to other studies that focus on outcomes of single pregnancies, these studies included all pregnancy outcomes by developing comprehensive reproductive histories for each woman. Pregnancy outcomes included birth, miscarriage, stillbirth, termination and ectopic pregnancy. Women in the youngest cohort (born in 1973-78) were only just reaching their peak childbearing years and many (44%) had yet to report their first pregnancy outcome. Women from the mid-aged cohort (born 1946-51) had completed their reproductive lives and 92% were able to report on their lifetime pregnancy outcomes. Pregnancy losses, especially miscarriage, were common for both generations of women. Secondly, the prevalence of infertility, seeking medical advice and using treatment was identified for these two generations of women. For the older generation, the lifetime prevalence of infertility and demand for treatment was investigated in the context of the specialist medical services which became available circa 1980. By this time, however, most of these older women had already been pregnant and completed their families. For women who experienced infertility (11%), their options for advice and treatment were limited and less than half (42%) had used any treatment. More recently for the younger generation of women, who were aged 28-33 years in 2006, specialist advice and treatment were extensively available. Among women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5936), 17% had experienced infertility and the majority (72%) were able to access medical advice. However, after seeking advice only half of these infertile women had used treatment with fertility hormones or in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Overall for infertile women aged up to 33 years, only one-third had used these treatments. Thirdly, the barriers to accessing medical advice and using treatment for infertility were identified for women aged less than 34 years. Among a community sample of infertile women aged 28-33 years (ALSWH participants), self-reported depression was found to be a barrier to accessing medical advice. The characteristics of these infertile women in the community who had (n=121) or had not (n=110) used treatment were compared to infertile women aged 27-33 years (n=59) attending four fertility clinics. Compared to infertile women in the community, living in major cities and having private health insurance were associated with early use of treatment for infertility at specialist clinics by women aged <34 years. In contrast to most clinical studies of IVF, the final study reported in the thesis took into account repeated IVF cycles and the impact of women’s individual histories on IVF outcomes. Among 121 infertile women (aged 27-46 years) who had 286 IVF cycles, older age and prolonged use of the oral contraceptive pill were associated with fewer eggs collected. Further, women in particular occupations had lower proportions of eggs fertilised normally than women in other occupational groups. These studies form the first large-scale epidemiological examination of infertility in Australia. The finding that two-thirds of women with infertility had not used treatment indicates that there is an unmet need for specialist treatment in women aged less than 34 years. However, barriers to accessing treatment prevent women using ART at a younger age when there is a higher chance of pregnancy.

Performance assessment of exponential Rosenbrock method for large systems of ODE

This paper studies time integration methods for large stiff systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of the form u'(t) = g(u(t)). For such problems, implicit methods generally outperform explicit methods, since the time step is usually less restricted by stability constraints. Recently, however, explicit so-called exponential integrators have become popular for stiff problems due to their favourable stability properties. These methods use matrix-vector products involving exponential-like functions of the Jacobian matrix, which can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods that require only matrix-vector products with the Jacobian. In this paper, we implement exponential integrators of second, third and fourth order and demonstrate that they are competitive with well-established approaches based on the backward differentiation formulas and a preconditioned Newton-Krylov solution strategy.

Advanced numerical characterization of silicon with defect by nanoindentation

Nano silicon is widely used as the essential element of complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) and solar cells. It is recognized that today, large portion of world economy is built on electronics products and related services. Due to the accessible fossil fuel running out quickly, there are increasing numbers of researches on the nano silicon solar cells. The further improvement of higher performance nano silicon components requires characterizing the material properties of nano silicon. Specially, when the manufacturing process scales down to the nano level, the advanced components become more and more sensitive to the various defects induced by the manufacturing process. It is known that defects in mono-crystalline silicon have significant influence on its properties under nanoindentation. However, the cost involved in the practical nanoindentation as well as the complexity of preparing the specimen with controlled defects slow down the further research on mechanical characterization of defected silicon by experiment. Therefore, in current study, the molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are employed to investigate the mono-crystalline silicon properties with different pre-existing defects, especially cavities, under nanoindentation. Parametric studies including specimen size and loading rate, are firstly conducted to optimize computational efficiency. The optimized testing parameters are utilized for all simulation in defects study. Based on the validated model, different pre-existing defects are introduced to the silicon substrate, and then a group of nanoindentation simulations of these defected substrates are carried out. The simulation results are carefully investigated and compared with the perfect Silicon substrate which used as benchmark. It is found that pre-existing cavities in the silicon substrate obviously influence the mechanical properties. Furthermore, pre-existing cavities can absorb part of the strain energy during loading, and then release during unloading, which possibly causes less plastic deformation to the substrate. However, when the pre-existing cavities is close enough to the deformation zone or big enough to exceed the bearable stress of the crystal structure around the spherical cavity, the larger plastic deformation occurs which leads the collapse of the structure. Meanwhile, the influence exerted on the mechanical properties of silicon substrate depends on the location and size of the cavity. Substrate with larger cavity size or closer cavity position to the top surface, usually exhibits larger reduction on Young’s modulus and hardness.

Developing a predictive contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) for construction projects

Over the last few decades, construction project performance has been evaluated due to the increase of delays, cost overruns and quality failures. Growing numbers of disputes, inharmonious working environments, conflict, blame cultures, and mismatches of objectives among project teams have been found to be contributory factors to poor project performance. Performance measurement (PM) approaches have been developed to overcome these issues, however, the comprehensiveness of PM as an overall approach is still criticised in terms of the iron triangle; namely time, cost, and quality. PM has primarily focused on objective measures, however, continuous improvement requires the inclusion of subjective measures, particularly contractor satisfaction (Co-S). It is challenging to deal with the two different groups of large and small-medium contractor satisfaction as to date, Co-S has not been extensively defined, primarily in developing countries such as Malaysia. Therefore, a Co-S model is developed in this research which aims to fulfil the current needs in the construction industry by integrating performance measures to address large and small-medium contractor perceptions. The positivist paradigm used in the research was adhered to by reviewing relevant literature and evaluating expert discussions on the research topic. It yielded a basis for the contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) development which consists of three elements: contractor satisfaction (Co-S) dimensions; contributory factors and characteristics (project and participant). Using valid questionnaire results from 136 contractors in Malaysia lead to the prediction of several key factors of contractor satisfaction and to an examination of the relationships between elements. The relationships were examined through a series of sequential statistical analyses, namely correlation, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), t-tests and multiple regression analysis (MRA). Forward and backward MRAs were used to develop Co-S mathematical models. Sixteen Co-S models were developed for both large and small-medium contractors. These determined that the large contractor Malaysian Co-S was most affected by the conciseness of project scope and quality of the project brief. Contrastingly, Co-S for small-medium contractors was strongly affected by the efficiency of risk control in a project. The results of the research provide empirical evidence in support of the notion that appropriate communication systems in projects negatively contributes to large Co-S with respect to cost and profitability. The uniqueness of several Co-S predictors was also identified through a series of analyses on small-medium contractors. These contractors appear to be less satisfied than large contractors when participants lack effectiveness in timely authoritative decision-making and communication between project team members. Interestingly, the empirical results show that effective project health and safety measures are influencing factors in satisfying both large and small-medium contractors. The perspectives of large and small-medium contractors in respect to the performance of the entire project development were derived from the Co-S models. These were statistically validated and refined before a new Co-S model was developed. Developing such a unique model has the potential to increase project value and benefit all project participants. It is important to improve participant collaboration as it leads to better project performance. This study may encourage key project participants; such as client, consultant, subcontractor and supplier; to increase their attention to contractor needs in the development of a project. Recommendations for future research include investigating other participants‟ perspectives on CoSMo and the impact of the implementation of CoSMo in a project, since this study is focused purely on the contractor perspective.

More is not necessarily better. A biomechanical study on distal screw numbers in volar locking distal radius plates

INTRODUCTION: Currently available volar locking plates for the treatment of distal radius fractures incorporate at least two distal screw rows for fixation of the metaphyseal fragment and have a variable-angle locking mechanism which allows placement of the screws in various directions There is, however no evidence that these plates translate into better outcomes or have superior biomechanical properties to first generation plates, which had a single distal screw row and fixed-angle locking. The aim of our biomechanical study was to compare fixed-angle single-row plates with variable-angle multi-row plates to clarify the optimal number of locking screws. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five different plate-screw combinations of three different manufacturers were tested, each group consisting of five synthetic fourth generation distal radius bones. An AO type C2 fracture was created and the fractures were plated according to each manufacturer's recommendations. The specimens then underwent cyclic and load-to-failure testing. An optical motion analysis system was used to detect displacement of fragments. RESULTS: No significant differences were detected after cyclic loading as well as after load-to-failure testing, neither in regard to axial deformation, implant rigidity or maximum displacement. The fixed-angle single-row plate showed the highest pre-test rigidity, least increase in post-testing rigidity and highest load-to-failure rigidity and least radial shortening. The radial shortening of plates with two distal screw rows was 3.1 and 4.3 times higher, respectively, than that of the fixed-angle single-row plate. CONCLUSION: The results of our study indicate that two distal screw rows do not add to construct rigidity and resistance against loss of reduction. Well conducted clinical studies based on the findings of biomechanical studies are necessary to determine the optimal number of screws necessary to achieve reproducibly good results in the treatment of distal radius fractures.

Chimaeric HIV-1 subtype C Gag molecules with large in-frame C-terminal polypeptide fusions form virus-like particles

HIV-1 Pr55 Gag virus-like particles (VLPs) are strong immunogens with potential as candidate HIV vaccines. VLP immunogenicity can be broadened by making chimaeric Gag molecules: however, VLPs incorporating polypeptides longer than 200 aa fused in frame with Gag have not yet been reported. We constructed a range of gag-derived genes encoding in-frame C-terminal fusions of myristoylation-competent native Pr55Gag and p6-truncated Gag (Pr50Gag) to test the effects of polypeptide length and sequence on VLP formation and morphology, in an insect cell expression system. Fused sequences included a modified reverse transcriptase-Tat-Nef fusion polypeptide (RTTN, 778 aa), and truncated versions of RTTN ranging from 113 aa to 450 aa. Baculovirus-expressed chimaeric proteins were examined by western blot and electron microscopy. All chimaeras formed VLPs which could be purified by sucrose gradient centrifugation. VLP diameter increased with protein MW, from ∼100 nm for Pr55Gag to ∼250 nm for GagRTTN. The presence or absence of the Gag p6 region did not obviously affect VLP formation or appearance. GagRT chimaeric particles were successfully used in mice to boost T-cell responses to Gag and RT that were elicited by a DNA vaccine encoding a GagRTTN polypeptide, indicating the potential of such chimaeras to be used as candidate HIV vaccines. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variation in risk seeking behavior in a natural experiment following a large negative wealth shock induced by a natural disaster

An ongoing challenge in behavioral economics is to understand the variations observed in risk attitudes as a function of their environmental context. Of particular interest is the effect of wealth on risk attitudes. The research in this area has however faced two constraints: the difficulty to study the causal effects of large changes in wealth, and the causal effects of losses on risk behavior. The present paper address this double limitation by providing evidence of the variation of risk attitude after large losses using a natural disaster (Brisbane floods) as the setting for a natural experiment.

Understanding process behaviours in a large insurance company in Australia : a case study

Having a reliable understanding about the behaviours, problems, and performance of existing processes is important in enabling a targeted process improvement initiative. Recently, there has been an increase in the application of innovative process mining techniques to facilitate evidence-based understanding about organizations' business processes. Nevertheless, the application of these techniques in the domain of finance in Australia is, at best, scarce. This paper details a 6-month case study on the application of process mining in one of the largest insurance companies in Australia. In particular, the challenges encountered, the lessons learned, and the results obtained from this case study are detailed. Through this case study, we not only validated existing `lessons learned' from other similar case studies, but also added new insights that can be beneficial to other practitioners in applying process mining in their respective fields.

Review of refugee mental health interventions following resettlement : best practice and recommendations

There are increasing numbers of refugees worldwide, with approximately 16 million refugees in 2007 and over 2.5 million refugees resettled in the United States since the start of its humanitarian program. Psychologists and other health professionals who deliver mental health services for individuals from refugee backgrounds need to have confidence that the therapeutic interventions they employ are appropriate and effective for the clients with whom they work. The current review briefly surveys refugee research, examines empirical evaluations of therapeutic interventions in resettlement contexts, and provides recommendations for best practices and future directions in resettlement countries. The resettlement interventions found to be most effective typically target culturally homogeneous client samples and demonstrate moderate to large outcome effects on aspects of traumatic stress and anxiety reduction. Further evaluations of the array of psychotherapeutic, psychosocial, pharmacological, and other therapeutic approaches, including psychoeducational and community-based interventions that facilitate personal and community growth and change, are encouraged. There is a need for increased awareness, training and funding to implement longitudinal interventions that work collaboratively with clients from refugee backgrounds through the stages of resettlement.