Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Development and validation of the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score and 2h accelerated diagnostic protocol

Objective Risk scores and accelerated diagnostic protocols can identify chest pain patients with low risk of major adverse cardiac event who could be discharged early from the ED, saving time and costs. We aimed to derive and validate a chest pain score and accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) that could safely increase the proportion of patients suitable for early discharge. Methods Logistic regression identified statistical predictors for major adverse cardiac events in a derivation cohort. Statistical coefficients were converted to whole numbers to create a score. Clinician feedback was used to improve the clinical plausibility and the usability of the final score (Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score [EDACS]). EDACS was combined with electrocardiogram results and troponin results at 0 and 2 h to develop an ADP (EDACS-ADP). The score and EDACS-ADP were validated and tested for reproducibility in separate cohorts of patients. Results In the derivation (n = 1974) and validation (n = 608) cohorts, the EDACS-ADP classified 42.2% (sensitivity 99.0%, specificity 49.9%) and 51.3% (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 59.0%) as low risk of major adverse cardiac events, respectively. The intra-class correlation coefficient for categorisation of patients as low risk was 0.87. Conclusion The EDACS-ADP identified approximately half of the patients presenting to the ED with possible cardiac chest pain as having low risk of short-term major adverse cardiac events, with high sensitivity. This is a significant improvement on similar, previously reported protocols. The EDACS-ADP is reproducible and has the potential to make considerable cost reductions to health systems.

Profiles of illicit drug use during annual key holiday and control periods in Australia: Wastewater analysis in an urban, a semi-rural and a vacation area

AIMS: To examine changes in illicit drug consumption between peak holiday season (23 December-3 January) in Australia and a control period two months later in a coastal urban area, an inland semi-rural area and an island populated predominantly by vacationers during holidays. DESIGN: Analysis of representative daily composite wastewater samples collected from the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area. SETTING: Three wastewater treatment plants. PARTICIPANTS: Wastewater treatment plants serviced approximately 350, 000 persons in the urban area, 120,000 in the semi-rural area and 1100-2400 on the island. MEASUREMENTS: Drug residues were analysed using liquid chromatography coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer. Per capita drug consumption was estimated. Changes in drug use were quantified using Hedges' g. FINDINGS: During the holidays, cannabis consumption in the semi-rural area declined (g = -2.8) as did methamphetamine (-0.8), whereas cocaine (+1.5) and ecstasy (+1.6) use increased. In the urban area, consumption of all drugs increased during holidays (cannabis +1.6, cocaine +1.2, ecstasy +0.8 and methamphetamine +0.3). In the vacation area, methamphetamine (+0.7), ecstasy (+0.7) and cocaine (+1.1) use increased, but cannabis (-0.5) use decreased during holiday periods. CONCLUSIONS: While the peak holiday season in Australia is perceived as a period of increased drug use, this is not uniform across all drugs and areas. Substantial declines in drug use in the semi-rural area contrasted with substantial increases in urban and vacation areas. Per capita drug consumption in the vacation area was equivalent to that in the urban area, implying that these locations merit particular attention for drug use monitoring and harm minimisation measures.

Monitoring illicit drug use through wastewater analysis in south east Queensland, Australia

Introduction and Aims: Wastewater analysis has become a useful technique for monitoring illicit drug use in communities. Findings have been reported from different countries in Europe and North America. We applied this technique to gauge the illicit drug consumption in an urban catchment from South East Queensland, Australia. Design and Methods: The sampling campaigns were conducted in 2009 (21st November – 2nd December) and 2010 (19th – 25th November). We collected daily composite wastewater samples from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant using continuous flow-proportional sampling. Ten illicit drug residues (parent compounds and key metabolites) in the samples were measured using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometer. Results: Seven compounds were quantified in all the samples. Our data indicated higher drug consumption on weekends. Cannabis was the highest used drug in both sampling periods. Compared to the first sampling campaign which indicated that cocaine and methamphetamine use exceeded ecstasy usage, the second sampling campaign suggested the use of methamphetamine exceeded that of ecstasy which in turn exceeded cocaine use. Discussion and Conclusions: The observed weekly trend of drug use in our study is in agreement with findings in other studies. The variation between two sampling periods in the prevalence of drug use may relate to the availability and prices of the drugs on markets. The cocaine use we estimated in 2009 was much greater than estimations obtained through the national household survey [1], implying under- reporting of cocaine use in surveys. Future work is underway to tackle methodological challenges for more accurate estimation.

Illicit drug use between an annual key holiday and a control period: Wastewater analysis in a semi-rural, an urban and a vacation area

Introduction and Aims: Holiday periods are potentially a time for increased substance use as social events and private parties are more common. Data on community illicit drug consumption during holiday periods are limited. Besides existing methods for determining drug use, such as population surveys, one emerging method is to measure illicit drugs and/or their metabolites in wastewater samples. This study examined the change in consumption of cannabis, methamphetamine, cocaine and 3,4- methylenedioxymethamphetamine in three different types of areas (an inland semi-rural area, a coastal urban area and a vacation island) with respect to holiday times. Design and Methods: Samples were collected at the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area during a key annual holiday (i.e. the summer holiday including Christmas and New Year) and control period. Illicit drug residues in the daily composited samples were measured by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Results: Drug use varied substantially among the three areas within each monitoring period as well as between the holiday and control period within each area. Use consistently increased and peaked over New Year particularly for cocaine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine whereas cannabis and methamphetamine were relatively less subjected to holiday times in all the areas. Discussion and Conclusions: Wastewater sampling and analysis provides higher spatio-temporal resolution than national surveys and supplements drug epidemiology studies originating primary in metropolitan locations. Such data is essential for policy makers to plan potential intervention strategies associated with these illicit substances in regional areas and other settings besides urban areas in the future.

Keeper of the key

"Keeper of the Key", a song by the Australian band Dear Anonymous, was produced as part of the Indie 100 research intensive project within the Independent Music Project (IMP). The IMP is an ongoing, interdisciplinary research arm within QUT. The song's author is Georgia Hahn.

Integrated genome-wide chromatin occupancy and expression analyses identify key myeloid pro-differentiation transcription factors repressed by Myb

To gain insight into the mechanisms by which the Myb transcription factor controls normal hematopoiesis and particularly, how it contributes to leukemogenesis, we mapped the genome-wide occupancy of Myb by chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by massively parallel sequencing (ChIP-Seq) in ERMYB myeloid progenitor cells. By integrating the genome occupancy data with whole genome expression profiling data, we identified a Myb-regulated transcriptional program. Gene signatures for leukemia stem cells, normal hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells and myeloid development were overrepresented in 2368 Myb regulated genes. Of these, Myb bound directly near or within 793 genes. Myb directly activates some genes known critical in maintaining hematopoietic stem cells, such as Gfi1 and Cited2. Importantly, we also show that, despite being usually considered as a transactivator, Myb also functions to repress approximately half of its direct targets, including several key regulators of myeloid differentiation, such as Sfpi1 (also known as Pu.1), Runx1, Junb and Cebpb. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that interaction with p300, an established coactivator for Myb, is unexpectedly required for Myb-mediated transcriptional repression. We propose that the repression of the above mentioned key pro-differentiation factors may contribute essentially to Myb's ability to suppress differentiation and promote self-renewal, thus maintaining progenitor cells in an undifferentiated state and promoting leukemic transformation. © 2011 The Author(s).

Cumulative effects on the change of residual value in PPP projects: A comparative case study

Public private partnerships (PPPs) have been adopted widely to provide public facilities and services. According to the PPP agreement, PPP projects would be transferred to the public sector. However, problems related to the subsequent management of ongoing PPP projects have not been studied thoroughly. Residual value risk (RVR) can occur if the public sector cannot obtain the project in the desired conditions as required in the agreement when a project is being transferred. RVR has been identified as an important risk in PPPs and has greatly influenced the outputs of the projects. In order to further observe the change of residual value (RV) during the process of PPP projects and to reveal the internal mechanism for reducing the RVR, a comparative case study of two PPP projects in mainland China and Hong Kong was conducted. Based on the case study, different factors leading to RVR and a series of key risk indicators (KRIs) were identified. The comparison demonstrates that RVR is an important risk that could influence the success of PPP projects. The cumulative effects during the concession period can play significant roles in the occurrence of RVR. Additionally, the cumulative effects in different cases can make the RVR different because of different stakeholders’ efforts on the projects and ways to treat RVR. Finally, alternatives for the public sector to treat RVR were proposed. The findings of this research can reduce RVR and improve the performance of PPP projects.

Modelling of the evaporation of a droplet suspended in a binary atmosphere

The process of spray drying is applied in a number of contexts. One such application is the production of a synthetic rock used for storage of nuclear waste. To establish a framework for a model of the spray drying process for this application, we here develop a model describing evaporation from droplets of pure water, such that the model may be extended to account for the presence of colloid within the droplet. We develop a spherically-symmetric model and formulate continuum equations describing mass, momentum, and energy balance in both the liquid and gas phases from first principles. We establish appropriate boundary conditions at the surface of the droplet, including a generalised Clapeyron equation that accurately describes the temperature at the surface of the droplet. To account for experiment design, we introduce a simplified platinum ball and wire model into the system using a thin wire problem. The resulting system of equations is transformed in order to simplify a finite volume solution scheme. The results from numerical simulation are compared with data collected for validation, and the sensitivity of the model to variations in key parameters, and to the use of Clausius–Clapeyron and generalised Clapeyron equations, is investigated. Good agreement is found between the model and experimental data, despite the simplicity of the platinum phase model.

Solvent effect in molecular recognition: Determining binding constants in different solvents following an extraction based protocol

Semi-rigid molecular tweezers 1, 3 and 4 bind picric acid with more than tenfold increment in tetrachloromethane as compared to chloroform.

Heterogeneity of miR-10b expression in circulating tumor cells

Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in the blood of cancer patients are recognized as important potential targets for future anticancer therapies. As mediators of metastatic spread, CTCs are also promising to be used as € liquid biopsyto aid clinical decision-making. Recent work has revealed potentially important genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity within CTC populations, even within the same patient. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are key regulators of gene expression and have emerged as potentially important diagnostic markers and targets for anti-cancer therapy. Here, we describe a robust in situ hybridization (ISH) protocol, incorporating the CellSearch ® CTC detection system, enabling clinical investigation of important miRNAs, such as miR-10b on a cell by cell basis. We also use this method to demonstrate heterogeneity of such as miR-10b on a cell-by-cell basis. We also use this method to demonstrate heterogeneity of miR-10b in individual CTCs from breast, prostate and colorectal cancer patients.

Evolution of the concept of compulsory licensing: A critical analysis of key developments before and after TRIPS

Patents provide monopoly rights to patent holders. There are safeguards in patent regime to ensure that exclusive right of the patent holder is not misused. Compulsory licensing is one of the safeguards provided under TRIPS using which patent granting state may allow a third party to exploit the invention without patent holder’s consent upon terms and conditions decided by the government. This concept existed since 1623 and was not introduced by TRIPS for the first time. But this mechanism has undergone significant changes especially in post-TRIPS era. History of evolution of compulsory licensing is one of the least explored areas of intellectual property law. This paper undertakes an analysis of different phases in the evolution of the compulsory licensing mechanism and sheds light on reasons behind developments especially after TRIPS.

The short-term impact of curative colorectal cancer treatment on physical activity, functional status and quality of life: A systematic review protocol

REVIEW QUESTION/OBJECTIVE The quantitative objectives are to identify the impact of curative colorectal cancer treatment (surgery or adjuvant therapy) on physical activity, functional status and quality of life within one year of treatment or diagnosis. INCLUSION CRITERIA Types of participants: This review will consider studies that include individuals aged 18 years and over who have been diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Types of intervention(s)/phenomena of interest: This review will consider studies that evaluate the impact of curative colorectal cancer treatment: surgery and/or adjuvant therapy. Types of outcomes: This review will consider studies that include the following outcome measures assessed within one year of diagnosis or treatment: Physical activity - any bodily movement produced by skeletal muscles resulting in energy expenditure. Physical activity is not exclusive to exercise; activities can also be walking, housework, occupational or leisure. Physical activity can be measured objectively using pedometers or accelerometers, or subjectively using self-reported measures. Functional status – measured as the capacity to perform all activities of daily living such as walking, showering, and eating; and instrumental activities of daily living such as (but not limited to) grocery shopping, housekeeping and laundry. Quality of life – defined as the individual meaning of mental, physical and psychosocial wellbeing, as measured by validated tools such as SF-36, EORTC-QLQ-C30, or FACT-C.

G(its)(2) VSR: An Information Theoretic Secure Verifiable Secret Redistribution Protocol for Long-term Archival Storage

Protocols for secure archival storage are becoming increasingly important as the use of digital storage for sensitive documents is gaining wider practice. Wong et al.[8] combined verifiable secret sharing with proactive secret sharing without reconstruction and proposed a verifiable secret redistribution protocol for long term storage. However their protocol requires that each of the receivers is honest during redistribution. We proposed[3] an extension to their protocol wherein we relaxed the requirement that all the recipients should be honest to the condition that only a simple majority amongst the recipients need to be honest during the re(distribution) processes. Further, both of these protocols make use of Feldman's approach for achieving integrity during the (redistribution processes. In this paper, we present a revised version of our earlier protocol, and its adaptation to incorporate Pedersen's approach instead of Feldman's thereby achieving information theoretic secrecy while retaining integrity guarantees.