Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

Renormalized time scale for anticipating and lagging synchronization

Anticipating synchronization has been recently proposed as a mechanism of interaction in dynamical systems which are able to bring about predictions of future states of a driver system. We suggest that an interesting insight into the anticipating synchronization can be obtained by the renormalization of the time scale in the driven system. Our approach directly links the feedback delay of the driven system with the renormalized time scale of the driven system, identifying the main component in the anticipating synchronization paradigm and suggesting an alternative method to generate the anticipating and the lagging synchronization.

Intake, water consumption, ruminal fermentation, and stress response of beef heifers fed after different lengths of delays in the daily feed delivery time

Four rumen-fistulated Holstein heifers (134 +/- 1 kg initial BW) were used in a 4 x 4 Latin square design to determine the effects of delaying daily feed delivery time on intake, ruminal fermentation, behavior, and stress response. Each 3-wk experimental period was preceded by 1 wk in which all animals were fed at 0800 h. Feed bunks were cleaned at 0745 h and feed offered at 0800 h (T0, no delay), 0900 (T1), 1000 (T2), and 1100 (T3) from d1 to 21 with measurements taken during wk 1 and 3. Heifers were able to see each other at all times. Concentrate and barley straw were offered in separate compartments of the feed bunks, once daily and for ad libitum intake. Ruminal pH and saliva cortisol concentrations were measured at 0, 4, 8, and 12 h postfeeding on d 3 and 17 of each experimental period. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were measured on d 17. Increasing length of delay in daily feed delivery time resulted in a quadratic response in concentrate DMI (low in T1 and T2; P = 0.002), whereas straw DMI was greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.03). Treatments affected the distribution of DMI within the day with a linear decrease observed between 0800 and 1200 h but a linear increase during nighttimes (2000 to 0800 h), whereas T1 and T2 had reduced DMI between 1200 and 1600 h (quadratic P = 0.04). Water consumption (L/d) was not affected but decreased linearly when expressed as liters per kilogram of DMI (P = 0.01). Meal length was greatest and eating rate slowest in T1 and T2 (quadratic P <= 0.001). Size of the first meal after feed delivery was reduced in T1 on d 1 (cubic P = 0.05) and decreased linearly on d 2 (P = 0.01) after change. Concentrate eating and drinking time (shortest in T1) and straw eating time (longest in T1) followed a cubic trend (P = 0.02). Time spent lying down was shortest and ruminating in standing position longest in T1 and T2. Delay of feeding time resulted in greater daily maximum salivary cortisol concentration (quadratic P = 0.04), which was greatest at 0 h in T1 and at 12 h after feeding in T2 (P < 0.05). Daily mean fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.04). Ruminal pH showed a treatment effect at wk 1 because of increased values in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.01). Delaying feed delivery time was not detrimental for rumen function because a stress response was triggered, which led to reduced concentrate intake, eating rate, and size of first meal, and increased straw intake. Increased salivary cortisol suggests that animal welfare is compromised.

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Presence of a Diurnally Varying Heat Source

Resonant interactions among equatorial waves in the presence of a diurnally varying heat source are studied in the context of the diabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations for a motionless, hydrostatic, horizontally homogeneous and stably stratified background atmosphere. The heat source is assumed to be periodic in time and of small amplitude [i.e., O(epsilon)] and is prescribed to roughly represent the typical heating associated with deep convection in the tropical atmosphere. In this context, using the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the free linear Rossby, Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves, as well as their vertical structures, are obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves are shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(e) approximation, and the dynamics of these interactions have been studied in the presence of the forcing. It is shown that for the planetary-scale wave resonant triads composed of two first baroclinic equatorially trapped waves and one barotropic Rossby mode, the spectrum of the thermal forcing is such that only one of the triad components is resonant with the heat source. As a result, to illustrate the role of the diurnal forcing in these interactions in a simplified fashion, two kinds of triads have been analyzed. The first one refers to triads composed of a k = 0 first baroclinic geostrophic mode, which is resonant with the stationary component of the diurnal heat source, and two dispersive modes, namely, a mixed Rossby-gravity wave and a barotropic Rossby mode. The other class corresponds to triads composed of two first baroclinic inertio-gravity waves in which the highest-frequency wave resonates with a transient harmonic of the forcing. The integration of the asymptotic reduced equations for these selected resonant triads shows that the stationary component of the diurnal heat source acts as an ""accelerator"" for the energy exchanges between the two dispersive waves through the excitation of the catalyst geostrophic mode. On the other hand, since in the second class of triads the mode that resonates with the forcing is the most energetically active member because of the energy constraints imposed by the triad dynamics, the results show that the convective forcing in this case is responsible for a longer time scale modulation in the resonant interactions, generating a period doubling in the energy exchanges. The results suggest that the diurnal variation of tropical convection might play an important role in generating low-frequency fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation through resonant nonlinear interactions.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data

In interval-censored survival data, the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval. Such data appear very frequently. In this paper, we are concerned only with parametric forms, and so a location-scale regression model based on the exponentiated Weibull distribution is proposed for modeling interval-censored data. We show that the proposed log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data represents a parametric family of models that include other regression models that are broadly used in lifetime data analysis. Assuming the use of interval-censored data, we employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, a parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Furthermore, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed; in addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to a modified deviance residual in log-exponentiated Weibull regression models for interval-censored data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large time behaviour for functional differential equations with dominant eigenvalues of arbitrary order

The spectral theory for linear autonomous neutral functional differential equations (FDE) yields explicit formulas for the large time behaviour of solutions. Our results are based on resolvent computations and Dunford calculus, applied to establish explicit formulas for the large time behaviour of solutions of FDE. We investigate in detail a class of two-dimensional systems of FDE. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dating coeval mafic magmatism and ultrahigh temperature metamorphism in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, Central Brazil

Dating granulites has always been of great interest because they represent one of the most extreme settings of an orogen. Owing to the resilience of zircon, even in such severe environments, the link between P-T conditions and geological time is possible. However, a challenge to geochronologists is to define whether the growth of new zircon is related to pre- or post-P-T peak conditions and which processes might affect the (re) crystallization. In this context, the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, a high-grade complex in central Brazil with ultrahigh temperature (UHT) granulites, may provide valuable information within this topic. The Anapolis-Itaucu Complex (AIC) includes ortho- and paragranulites, locally presenting UHT mineral assemblages, with igneous zircon ages varying between 760 and 650 Ma and metamorphic overgrowths dated at around 650-640 Ma. Also common in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex are layered mafic-ultramafic complexes metamorphosed under high-grade conditions. This article presents the first geological and geochronological constraints of three of these layered complexes within the AIC, the Damolandia, Taquaral and Goianira-Trindade complexes. U-Pb (LA-MC-ICPMS, SHRIMP and ID-TIMS) zircon analyses reveal a spread of concordant ages spanning within an age interval of similar to 80 Ma with an ""upper"" intercept age of similar to 670 Ma. Under cathodoluminescence imaging, these crystals show partially preserved primary sector zoning, as well as internal textures typical of alteration during high-grade metamorphism, such as inward-moving boundaries. Zircon grains reveal homogeneous initial (176)Hf/(177)Hf values in distinct crystal-scale domains in all samples. Moreover. Hf isotopic ratios show correlation neither with U-Pb ages nor with Th/U ratios, suggesting that zircon grains crystallized during a single growth event. It is suggested, therefore, that the observed spread of concordant U-Pb ages may be related to a memory effect due to coupled dissolution-reprecipitation process during high grade metamorphism. Therefore, understanding the emplacement and metamorphism of this voluminous mafic magmatism is crucial as it may represent an additional heat source for the development of the ultrahigh temperature paragenesis recorded in the paragranulites. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic tools in beta regression with varying dispersion

We consider the issue of performing residual and local influence analyses in beta regression models with varying dispersion, which are useful for modelling random variables that assume values in the standard unit interval. In such models, both the mean and the dispersion depend upon independent variables. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. An application using real data is presented and discussed.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C serological markers among first-time blood donors in Brazil: A multi-center serosurvey

Little data are available on the seroprevalence of, and risk factors for hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV and HCV) infection in Latin American countries. A multi-center serosurvey was conducted among 3,598 first-time blood donors (65% men) from Sao Paulo, Salvador and Manaus in Brazil. The gender-specific seroprevalences of antibodies against hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) and of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in anti-HBc-positive sera were measured, and risk factors analyzed by gender. The gender-specific seroprevalences of antibodies against HCV (anti-HCV) were measured, but risk factors for HCV were not determined. Anti-HBc and HBsAg seroprevalences were not significantly different in men [101/2,341 (4.31%) and 4/2,229 (0.18%), respectively] and women [65/1,237 (5.25%) and 8/ 1,169 (0.68%), respectively], whereas the seroprevalence of anti-HCV was higher in women (12/1,238 [0.97%] vs. 9/2,353 [0.38%]; odds ratio [OR] = 2.49; 95% confidence interval [Cl]: 1.0-6.0). No significant difference for HBV infection was found across the three study sites or by ethnic group. The seroprevalence of anti-HBc increased with age, but decreased with education level in both genders. Lifetime number of sexual partners was associated with anti-HBc prevalence among men (OR = 1.95; 95% Cl: 1.2-3.1), but not women. The seroprevalence of HBV and HCV was low among Brazilian blood donors, and exposure increased with age in both genders.

Fast Acquisition of (13)C NMR Spectra using the Steady-state Free Precession Sequence

In this paper, we show that the steady-state free precession sequence can be used to acquire (13)C high-resolution nuclear magnetic resonance spectra and applied to qualitative analysis. The analysis of brucine sample using this sequence with 60 degrees flip angle and time interval between pulses equal to 300 ms (acquisition time, 299.7 ms; recycle delay, 300 ms) resulted in spectrum with twofold enhancement in signal-to-noise ratio, when compared to standard (13)C sequence. This gain was better when a much shorter time interval between pulses (100 ms) was applied. The result obtained was more than fivefold enhancement in signal-to-noise ratio, equivalent to more than 20-fold reduction in total data recording time. However, this short time interval between pulses produces a spectrum with severe phase and truncation anomalies. We demonstrated that these anomalies can be minimized by applying an appropriate apodization function and plotting the spectrum in the magnitude mode.

Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.