Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer

A benefit function transfer obtains estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the evaluation of a given policy at a site by combining existing information from different study sites. This has the advantage that more efficient estimates are obtained, but it relies on the assumption that the heterogeneity between sites is appropriately captured in the benefit transfer model. A more expensive alternative to estimate WTP is to analyze only data from the policy site in question while ignoring information from other sites. We make use of the fact that these two choices can be viewed as a model selection problem and extend the set of models to allow for the hypothesis that the benefit function is only applicable to a subset of sites. We show how Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques can be used to optimally combine information from all models. The Bayesian algorithm searches for the set of sites that can form the basis for estimating a benefit function and reveals whether such information can be transferred to new sites for which only a small data set is available. We illustrate the method with a sample of 42 forests from U.K. and Ireland. We find that BMA benefit function transfer produces reliable estimates and can increase about 8 times the information content of a small sample when the forest is 'poolable'. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Treatment options for cutaneous warts in family practice

Natural regression should not be advocated as a treatment option for cutaneous warts, given the infectious nature of this condition. Although there are numerous treatments for this condition reported in the literature, many trials are uncontrolled and many regimens are unsuitable for general practice. Specific treatment is influenced by age of patients, number and sites of warts and availability of treatment. This paper reviews the international literature on treatment methods, with particular emphasis on effectiveness, patient acceptability and application in family practice.

A study of HPV 1, 2 and 4 antibody prevalence in patients presenting for treatment with cutaneous warts to general practitioners in N. Ireland

Three hundred and seventy-six patients attending their general practitioner with cutaneous warts at five health centres in Northern Ireland were screened for human papilloma virus (HPV) types 1 and 2 IgM antibody using an indirect immunofluorescence test. Eight-eight (23.4%) patients were positive for HPV type 1 IgM and 156 (41.5%) for HPV type 2 IgM. HPV 1 IgM antibody was significantly more likely to be associated with plantar warts than warts elsewhere (P less than 0.0001). HPV 2 IgM was present in 45 (34.1%) patients with plantar warts and 99 (45.6%) patients with warts at other sites (P = 0.1). Evidence of multiple infection by HPV types 1 and 2 was demonstrated by the finding of HPV 1 and 2 IgM antibodies in the sera of 16 (4.3%). HPV 4 was found in only 1 out of 30 biopsies and HPV 4 IgM was undetectable in 50 randomly chosen sera.

Managing Island Life:Social, Economic and Political Dimensions of Formality and Informality in Island Life

"Managing Island Life: Social, Economic and Political Dimensions of Formality and Informality in Island Life" is a significant and timely contribution to the study of islands and island life. Wide-ranging in terms of both geographical and theoretical sweep, contributions consider the conceptualisation of the island as well as social, economic and political dimensions of island life and living. Showcasing the current state of island research, contributors cover diverse areas of island life such as: informal economies in the West Indies; the effects of natural convservation policies in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland; the role of internet sites in British Isles heritage tourism, and the impact of multicultural policies in the Indian Ocean. This volume will appeal to undergraduate social scientists as well as professional anthropologists, sociologists and geographers, policy makers and islands and regional specialists.

Comparison of teleconsultations and face-to-face consultations:preliminary results of a United Kingdom multicentre teledermatology study

The objective of this multicentre study was to undertake a systematic comparison of face-to-face consultations and teleconsultations performed using low-cost videoconferencing equipment. One hundred and twenty-six patients were enrolled by their general practitioners across three sites. Each patient underwent a teleconsultation with a distant dermatologist followed by a traditional face-to-face consultation with a dermatologist. The main outcome measures were diagnostic concordance rates, management plans and patient and doctor satisfaction. One hundred and fifty-five diagnoses were identified by the face-to-face consultations from the sample of 126 patients. Identical diagnoses were recorded from both types of consultation in 59% of cases. Teledermatology consultations missed a secondary diagnosis in 6% of cases and were unable to make a useful diagnosis in 11% of cases. Wrong diagnoses were made by the teledermatologist in 4% of cases. Dermatologists were able to make a definitive diagnosis by face-to-face consultations in significantly more cases than by teleconsultations (P = 0.001). Where both types of consultation resulted in a single diagnosis there was a high level of agreement (kappa = 0.96, lower 95% confidence limit 0.91-1.00). Overall follow-up rates from both types of consultation were almost identical. Fifty per cent of patients seen could have been managed using a single videoconferenced teleconsultation without any requirement for further specialist intervention. Patients reported high levels of satisfaction with the teleconsultations. General practitioners reported that 75% of the teleconsultations were of educational benefit. This study illustrates the potential of telemedicine to diagnose and manage dermatology cases referred from primary care. Once the problem of image quality has been addressed, further studies will be required to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a teledermatology service and the potential consequences for the provision of dermatological services in the U.K.

A field study assessing the impact of on-site wastewater treatment systems on surface water quality in a Co. Monaghan catchment

Poorly functioning on-site wastewater treatment systems (OSWTS) can be among the many sources of pollution to groundwater and surface water, which are of critical concern owing to potential human and ecological health risks. An investigation into the effects of on-site wastewater treatment systems (OSWTS) on surface water quality has been undertaken at several sites within a catchment in Co. Monaghan. The study sites were located in areas of 'low’ permeability, suggesting that run-off usually dominates over infiltration. Poor treatment performance of OSWTS within the catchment were found to be the result of several factors, including location in areas with unsuitable soil and site characteristics, incorrect installation, poor maintenance and inappropriate operation by the home owner.

Quantifying mircoorganism/organic matter interactions in saturated porous media.

Proteins and humic acids are common constituents of waste water. Latex colloids (colloids) acted as surrogates for microorganisms in multiple pulse dynamic column experiments (MPEs) that permitted colloid mobility to be quantified before and after the injection of either BSA (a protein), or Suwannee River humic acid (SRHA).
At low OM coverage colloid breakthrough curves demonstrated both BSA and SRHA reduced colloid deposition rates, but did not affect colloid irreversible deposition mechanisms. By contrast, high levels of SRHA surface coverage not only further reduced the matrix’s ability to attenuate colloids, but also resulted in reversible adsorption of a significant fraction of colloids deposited. Modelling of colloid responses using random sequential adsorption modelling suggested that 1 microgram of SRHA had the same effect as the deposition of 5.90±0.14 x109 colloids; the model suggested that adsorption of the same mass of BSA was equivalent to the deposition of between 7.1x108 and 2.3x109 colloids.
Colloid responses in MPEs where BSA coverage of colloid deposition sites approached saturation demonstrated the sand matrix remained capable of adsorbing colloids. However, in contrast to responses observed in MPEs at low surface coverage, continued colloid injection showed that the sand’s attenuation capacity increased with time, i.e. colloid concentrations declined as more were deposited (filter ripening).
Importance: Study results highlight the contrasting responses that may arise due to the interactions between colloids and OM in porous media. Results not only underscore that colloids can interact differently with various forms of deposited OM, but also that a single type of OM may generate dramatically different responses depending on the degree of surface coverage. The MPE method provides a means of quantifying the influence of OM on microorganism mobility in porous media such as filter beds, which may be used for either drinking water treatment or waste water treatment. In the wider environment study findings have potential to allow more confident predictions of the mobility of sewage derived pathogens discharging to groundwater.

Examining the uncertainties in a 'tuned and stacked' peatland water table reconstruction

Tuning and stacking approaches have been used to compile non-annually resolved peatland palaeo-water table records in several studies. This approach has been proposed as a potential way forward to overcome the chronological problems that beset the correlation of records and may help in the upscaling of palaeoclimate records for climate model-data comparisons. This paper investigates the uncertainties in this approach using a published water table compilation from Northern Ireland. Firstly, three plausible combinations of chronological match points are used to assess the variability of the reconstructions. It is apparent that even with markedly different match point combinations, the compilations are highly similar, especially when a 100-year running mean line is used for interpretation. Secondly, sample-specific reconstruction errors are scaled in relation to the standardised water table units and illustrated on the compiled reconstruction. Thirdly, the total chronological errors for each reconstruction are calculated using Bayesian age-modelling software. Although tuning and stacking approaches may be suitable for compiling peat-based palaeoclimate records, it is important that the reconstruction and chronological errors are acknowledged and clearly illustrated in future studies. The tuning of peat-based proxy climate records is based on a potentially flawed assumption that events are synchronous between sites. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Decomposing the mid-holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by;200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration predecline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.

Doonloughan: a seasonal settlement site on the Connemara coast

A series of shell middens and miscellaneous habitation sites, located in a dune
system in west County Galway, have been exposed and are slowly disappearing
through wind, wave and surface erosion. In 1992 a project was initiated to
record, sample and date some of these sites and the radiocarbon results
demonstrated that activity in the area spanned the Early Bronze Age through to
the Iron Age and into the early and post medieval periods. This preliminary
fieldwork was succeeded by the excavation of three of the better-preserved sites; a Bronze Age midden in 1994 and two early medieval sites (the subject of this paper), in 1997. The medieval sites dated to the late-seventh to ninth century adand were represented by a sub-circular stone hut with a hearth and the charred remains of a more ephemeral wooden tent-like structure. The discovery of a bronze penannular brooch of ninth/tenth century date at the latter site wouldsuggest that the settlements are not the remains of transient, impoverishedpeoples of the lower classes of society, eking out a living along the coast. The calcareous sands ensured good preservation of organic remains*fish and mammal bones, charred cereal grains, seeds and seaweed, and marine molluscs. Analyses of these indicated exploitation of marine resources but, otherwise, were comparable with the diet and economy represented by assemblages from established contemporary site types of the period. Unlike raths, cranno´gs and monastic settlements, however, the volume of material represented at the Galway sites was slight, despite the excellent preservation conditions. A range of seasonal indicators also suggested temporary habitation: probable latespring/summer occupation of the stone hut site and autumnal occupancy of the second, less substantial site. It is suggested that the machair plain, beside which the dunes are located, was most probably the attraction for settlers to the area and was exploited as an alternative pasture for the seasonal grazing of livestock.
*

The Influence of Aspect on the Biological Colonization of Stone in Northern Ireland.

The rate and type of biological colonization of stone is influenced by a wide array of environmental factors in addition to substrate characteristics. A series of experiments was designed to compare the rate and type of biological colonization of stone at varying locations over a 21-month time period. Exposure
trials were set up at nine different sites across Northern Ireland that covered a wide variety of environmental conditions. To determine aspect-related differences in colonization, blocks of Peakmoor sandstone and Portland limestone were placed on the north- and south-facing sides of purpose-designed exposure racks. Colorimetry and visual analysis were carried out on collected samples at increasing time intervals. Results showed significantly different rates of darkening and greening over time between north-facing and south-facing blocks, for both sandstone and limestone. This difference is likely to be representative of the fact that in Northern Ireland’s wet climate and northern-latitude position, the north face of a building will receive less direct sunlight. Therefore north-facing blocks, once wet, will remain damp for much longer than blocks on other façades. This slow-drying phenomenon is much more hospitable for biological colonization and continued growth than the hostile environment of rapid wetting and drying cycles experienced on the south face.

Prisons Memory Archive

Between 2006 and 2007, the Prisons Memory Archive (PMA) filmed participants, including former prisoners, prison staff, teachers, chaplains, visitors, solicitors and welfare workers back inside the Maze/Long Kesh Prison and Armagh Gaol. They shared the memory of the time spent in these prisons during the period of political violence from 1970 - 2000 in Northern Ireland, commonly known as the Troubles. Underpinning the overall methodology is co-ownership of the material, which gives participants the right to veto as well as to participate in the processes of editing and exhibiting their stories, so prioritising the value of co-authorship of their stories. The PMA adopted life-story interviewing techniques with the empty sites stimulating participants’ memory while they walked and talked their way around the empty sites. A third feature is inclusivity: the archive holds stories from across the full spectrum of the prison experience. A selection of the material, with accompanying context and links is available online www.prisonsmemoryarchive.com

Further Information:

The protocols of inclusivity, co-ownership and life-story telling make this collection significant as an initiative that engages with contemporary problems of how to negotiate narratives about a conflicted past in a society emerging out of violence. Inclusivity means that prison staff, prisoners, governors, chaplains, tutors and visitors have participated, relating their individual and collective experiences, which sit side by side on the PMA website. Co-ownership addresses the issues of ethics and sensitivity, allowing key constituencies to be involved. Life-story telling, based on oral history methodologies allows participants to be the authors of their own stories, crucial when dealing with sensitive issues from a violent past. The website hosts a selection of excerpts, e.g. the Armagh Stories page shows excerpts from 15 participants, while the Maze and Long Kesh Prison page offers interactive access to 24 participants from that prison. Using an interactive documentary structure, the site offers users opportunities to navigate their own way through the material and encourages them to hear and see the ‘other’, central to attempts at encouraging dialogue in a divided society. Further, public discussions have been held after screening of excerpts with community groups in the following locations - Belfast, Newtownabbey, Derry, Armagh, Enniskillen, London, Cork, Maynooth, Clones, and Monaghan. Extracts have been screened at international academic conferences in Valencia, Australia, Tartu, Estonia, Prague, and York. A dataset of the content, with description and links, is available for REF purposes.

The machinist landscape:Land Art Generator Initiative (Competition)

THE MACHINIST LANDSCAPE: AN ENTROPIC GRID OF VARIANCE
‘By drawing a diagram, a ground plan of a house, a street plan to the location of a site, or a topographic map, one draws a “logical two dimensional picture”. A “logical picture” differs from a natural or realistic picture in that it rarely looks like the thing it stands for.’
A Provisional Theory of Non-Sites, Robert Smithson (1968)

Between design and ground there are variances, deviations and gaps. These exist as physical interstices between what is conceptualised and what is realised; and they reveal moments in the design process that resist the reconciliation of people and their environment (McHarg 1963). The Machinist Landscape interrogates the significance of these variances through the contrasting processes of coppice and photovoltaic energy. It builds on the potential of these gaps, and in doing so proposes that these spaces of variance can reveal the complexity of relationships between consumption and remediation, design and nature.
Fresh Kills Park, and in particular the draft master plan (2006), offers a framework to explore this artificial construct. Central to the Machinist Landscape is the analysis of the landfill gas collection system, planned on a notional 200ft grid. Variations are revealed between this diagrammatic grid measure and that which has been constructed on the site. These variances between the abstract and the real offer the Machinist Landscape a powerful space of enquiry. Are these gaps a result of unexpected conditions below ground, topographic nuances or natural phenomena? Does this space of difference, between what is planned and what is constructed, have the potential to redefine the dynamic processes and relations with the land?
The Machinist Landscape is structured through this space of variance with an ‘entropic grid’, the under-storey of which hosts a carefully managed system of short-rotation coppice (SRC). The coppice, a medieval practice related to energy, product, and space, operates on theoretical and programmatic levels. It is planted along a structure of linear bunds, stabilized through coppice pole retaining structures and enriched with nutrients from coppice produced bio-char. Above the coppice is built an upper-storey of photovoltaic (PV); its structures fabricated from the coppiced timber and the PV produced with graphene from coppice charcoal processes.

Conservation status and reproduction of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera).

1. Freshwater unionoids are one of the most threatened animal groups worldwide and the freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera is currently listed as critically endangered in Europe. The ‘EC Habitats & Species Directive’ requires that EU member states monitor the distribution and abundance of this species and report regularly on its conservation status.
2. The pearl mussel meta-population in Northern Ireland was surveyed to assess temporal population trends in Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and mussel reproduction throughout its range.
3. Mussels occurred in six rivers and numbers within three SAC designated sites remained stable between 2004-07 and 2011. The discovery of >8,000 previously unknown individuals in the Owenreagh River contributed to an overall increase (+56.8%) in the total known population. All populations actively reproduced during 2010 with approximately half of all individuals gravid. Moreover, suitable salmonid hosts occurred at all sites with 10.7% of salmon and 22.8% of trout carrying encysted glochidia. Populations were composed entirely of aged individuals with little evidence of recent recruitment.
4. We infer that the break in the life cycle must occur during the juvenile stage when glochidia metamorphose and settle into the interstitial spaces within the substrate. Water quality parameters, most notably levels of suspended solids, exceeded the recommended maximum thresholds in all rivers.
5. We posit that the deposition of silt may be the main cause of juvenile mortality contributing to a lack of recruitment. Consequently, all populations were judged to be in ‘unfavourable’ conservation status. Catchment-level management plans are urgently needed to reduce siltation with the aim of improving recruitment. Our results have implications for the success of ex-situ conservation programmes; specifically, the size at which captive bred juveniles are released into the wild. Further research is required to assess the vulnerabilities of early life stages of M. margaritifera to siltation.

THE MARINE RADIOCARBON BOMB PULSE ACROSS THE TEMPERATE NORTH ATLANTIC: A COMPILATION OF Delta C-14 TIME HISTORIES FROM ARCTICA ISLANDICA GROWTH INCREMENTS

Marine radiocarbon bomb-pulse time histories of annually resolved archives from temperate regions have been underexploited. We present here series of Delta C-14 excess from known-age annual increments of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica from 4 sites across the coastal North Atlantic (German Bight, North Sea; Tromso, north Norway; Siglufjordur, north Icelandic shelf; Grimsey, north Icelandic shelf) combined with published series from Georges Bank and Sable Bank (NW Atlantic) and the Oyster Ground (North Sea). The atmospheric bomb pulse is shown to be a step-function whose response in the marine environment is immediate but of smaller amplitude and which has a longer decay time as a result of the much larger marine carbon reservoir. Attenuation is determined by the regional hydrographic setting of the sites, vertical mixing, processes controlling the isotopic exchange of C-14 at the air-sea boundary, C-14 content of the freshwater flux, primary productivity, and the residence time of organic matter in the sediment mixed layer. The inventories form a sequence from high magnitude-early peak (German Bight) to low magnitude-late peak (Grimsey). All series show a rapid response to the increase in atmospheric Delta C-14 excess but a slow response to the subsequent decline resulting from the succession of rapid isotopic air-sea exchange followed by the more gradual isotopic equilibration in the mixed layer due to the variable marine carbon reservoir and incorporation of organic carbon from the sediment mixed layer. The data constitute calibration series for the use of the bomb pulse as a high-resolution dating tool in the marine environment and as a tracer of coastal ocean water masses.