Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Key competences in the new ventures: a model for evaluating

This research studies from an internal view based on the Competency-Based Perspective (CBP), key organizational competencies developed for small new business. CBP is chosen in an attempt to explain the differences characterizing the closed companies from the consolidated ones. The main contribution of this paper is the definition of a set of key organizational competencies for new ventures from services and low technology based sectors. Using the classification proposed by [1] and a review of the entrepreneurship literature, the main competencies were defined and classified as: managerial, input-based, transformation-based, and output-based competencies. The proposed model for evaluating new ventures organizational competence is tested by means of Structural Equation

The Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels: plant scientist input needed.

The Energy Center at the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (Swiss federal institute of technology) is coordinating a multi-stakeholder effort, the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (http://energycenter.epfl.ch/biofuels), to develop global standards for sustainable biofuels production and processing. Given that many of the aspects related to biofuel production request a high scientific level of understanding, it is crucial that scientists take part in the discussion.

CODAPACK3D. A new version of Compositional Data Package

The statistical analysis of compositional data should be treated using logratios of parts,which are difficult to use correctly in standard statistical packages. For this reason afreeware package, named CoDaPack was created. This software implements most of thebasic statistical methods suitable for compositional data.In this paper we describe the new version of the package that now is calledCoDaPack3D. It is developed in Visual Basic for applications (associated with Excel©),Visual Basic and Open GL, and it is oriented towards users with a minimum knowledgeof computers with the aim at being simple and easy to use.This new version includes new graphical output in 2D and 3D. These outputs could bezoomed and, in 3D, rotated. Also a customization menu is included and outputs couldbe saved in jpeg format. Also this new version includes an interactive help and alldialog windows have been improved in order to facilitate its use.To use CoDaPack one has to access Excel© and introduce the data in a standardspreadsheet. These should be organized as a matrix where Excel© rows correspond tothe observations and columns to the parts. The user executes macros that returnnumerical or graphical results. There are two kinds of numerical results: new variablesand descriptive statistics, and both appear on the same sheet. Graphical output appearsin independent windows. In the present version there are 8 menus, with a total of 38submenus which, after some dialogue, directly call the corresponding macro. Thedialogues ask the user to input variables and further parameters needed, as well aswhere to put these results. The web site http://ima.udg.es/CoDaPack contains thisfreeware package and only Microsoft Excel© under Microsoft Windows© is required torun the software.Kew words: Compositional data Analysis, Software

A unified approach for representing rows and columns in contingency tables

By using suitable parameters, we present a uni¯ed aproach for describing four methods for representing categorical data in a contingency table. These methods include:correspondence analysis (CA), the alternative approach using Hellinger distance (HD),the log-ratio (LR) alternative, which is appropriate for compositional data, and theso-called non-symmetrical correspondence analysis (NSCA). We then make an appropriate comparison among these four methods and some illustrative examples are given.Some approaches based on cumulative frequencies are also linked and studied usingmatrices.Key words: Correspondence analysis, Hellinger distance, Non-symmetrical correspondence analysis, log-ratio analysis, Taguchi inertia

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Andalusian Health Repository: Promoting the scientific health output among professionals and providing citizens with quality health information

The Andalusian Public Health System (Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía -SSPA) Repository is the open environment where all the scientific output generated by the SSPA professionals, resulting from their medical care, research and administrative activities, is comprehensively collected and managed. This repository possesses special features which determined its development: the SSPA organization and its purpose as a health institution, the specific sets of documents that it generates and the stakeholders involved in it. The repository uses DSpace 1.6.2, to which several changes were implemented in order to achieve the SSPA initial goals and requirements. The main changes were: the addition of specific qualifiers to the Metadata Dublin Core scheme, the modification of the submission form, the integration of the MeSH Thesaurus as controlled vocabulary and the optimization of the advanced search tool. Another key point during the setting up of the repository was the initial batch ingest of the documents.

The interactional space in CLIL (Content and Language Integrated Learning) and EFL (English as a Foreign Language) classrooms

Aquest estudi pretén investigar els intercanvis verbals mestre/a – aprenent(s) en dos contextos d'instrucció diferents: classes amb un enfocament AICLE (Aprenentatge Integrat de Continguts Curriculars i Llengua Estrangera) on s’aprenen continguts no lingüístics a través de l’anglès, per una banda, i classes 'tradicionals' d'anglès com a llengua estrangera, on l’anglès és alhora objecte d’estudi i vehicle de comunicació, per una altra banda. Més concretament, les preguntes que formula el/la mestre/a, la producció oral dels aprenents i el 'feedback' del/de la mestre/a en els episodis d’atenció a la forma s’han estudiat a la llum de les principals teories provinents del camp de l’Adquisició de Segones Llengües (SLA) per tal de demostrar el seu paper en l’aprenentatge de l’anglès. El corpus de dades prové de l’enregistrament de 7 sessions AICLE i d'11 sessions EFL enregistrades en format àudio i vídeo en dos centres públics d’Educació Primària (EP) de Catalunya. A cadascuna de les escoles, el/la mateix/a mestre/a és l’encarregat/da dels dos tipus d’instrucció amb el mateix grup d’aprenents (10-11 anys d’edat), fet que permet eliminar variables individuals com l'aptitud dels aprenents o l'estil del/de la mestre/a.Els resultats mostren un cert nombre de similituds discursives entre AICLE i EFL donat que ambdós enfocaments tenen lloc en el context-classe amb unes característiques ben definides. Tal com apunta la recerca realitzada en aquest camp, la instrucció AICLE reuneix un seguit de condicions idònies per un major desenvolupament dels nivells de llengua anglesa més enllà de les classes ‘tradicionals’ d’anglès. Malgrat això, aquest estudi sembla indicar que el potencial d'AICLE pel que fa a facilitar una exposició rica a l’anglès i una producció oral significativa no s’explota degudament. En aquest sentit, els resultats d’aquest estudi poden contribuir a la formació dels futurs professors d'AICLE si es busca l’assoliment d’una complementarietat d’ambdós contextos amb l’objectiu últim de millorar els nivells de domini de la llengua anglesa.

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 1 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 3 / Partie 1 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 3 / Partie 2 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 2 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France