Essays in partial identification and applications to treatment effects and policy evaluation.

Dans cette thèse, je me suis interessé à l’identification partielle des effets de traitements dans différents modèles de choix discrets avec traitements endogènes. Les modèles d’effets de traitement ont pour but de mesurer l’impact de certaines interventions sur certaines variables d’intérêt. Le type de traitement et la variable d’intérêt peuvent être défini de manière générale afin de pouvoir être appliqué à plusieurs différents contextes. Il y a plusieurs exemples de traitement en économie du travail, de la santé, de l’éducation, ou en organisation industrielle telle que les programmes de formation à l’emploi, les techniques médicales, l’investissement en recherche et développement, ou l’appartenance à un syndicat. La décision d’être traité ou pas n’est généralement pas aléatoire mais est basée sur des choix et des préférences individuelles. Dans un tel contexte, mesurer l’effet du traitement devient problématique car il faut tenir compte du biais de sélection. Plusieurs versions paramétriques de ces modèles ont été largement étudiées dans la littérature, cependant dans les modèles à variation discrète, la paramétrisation est une source importante d’identification. Dans un tel contexte, il est donc difficile de savoir si les résultats empiriques obtenus sont guidés par les données ou par la paramétrisation imposée au modèle. Etant donné, que les formes paramétriques proposées pour ces types de modèles n’ont généralement pas de fondement économique, je propose dans cette thèse de regarder la version nonparamétrique de ces modèles. Ceci permettra donc de proposer des politiques économiques plus robustes. La principale difficulté dans l’identification nonparamétrique de fonctions structurelles, est le fait que la structure suggérée ne permet pas d’identifier un unique processus générateur des données et ceci peut être du soit à la présence d’équilibres multiples ou soit à des contraintes sur les observables. Dans de telles situations, les méthodes d’identifications traditionnelles deviennent inapplicable d’où le récent développement de la littérature sur l’identification dans les modèles incomplets. Cette littérature porte une attention particuliere à l’identification de l’ensemble des fonctions structurelles d’intérêt qui sont compatibles avec la vraie distribution des données, cet ensemble est appelé : l’ensemble identifié. Par conséquent, dans le premier chapitre de la thèse, je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans le modèle triangulaire binaire. Dans le second chapitre, je considère le modèle de Roy discret. Je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans un modèle de choix de secteur lorsque la variable d’intérêt est discrète. Les hypothèses de sélection du secteur comprennent le choix de sélection simple, étendu et généralisé de Roy. Dans le dernier chapitre, je considère un modèle à variable dépendante binaire avec plusieurs dimensions d’hétérogéneité, tels que les jeux d’entrées ou de participation. je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les fonctions de profits des firmes dans un jeux avec deux firmes et à information complète. Dans tout les chapitres, l’ensemble identifié des fonctions d’intérêt sont écrites sous formes de bornes et assez simple pour être estimées à partir des méthodes d’inférence existantes.

Effects of fertilizer type and rate on partitioning of soil organic matter into pools of different stability

Type and rate of fertilizers influence the level of soil organic carbon (Corg) and total nitrogen (Nt) markedly, but the effect on C and N partitioning into different pools is open to question. The objectives of the present work were to: (i) quantify the impact of fertilizer type and rate on labile, intermediate and passive C and N pools by using a combination of biological, chemical and mathematical methods; (ii) explain previously reported differences in the soil organic matter (SOM) levels between soils receiving farmyard manure with or without biodynamic preparations by using Corg time series and information on SOM partitioning; and (iii) quantify the long-term and short-term dynamics of SOM in density fractions and microbial biomass as affected by fertilizer type and rate and determine the incorporation of crop residues into labile SOM fractions. Samples were taken from a sandy Cambisol from the long-term fertilization trial in Darmstadt, Germany, founded in 1980. The nine treatments (four field replicates) were: straw incorporation plus application of mineral fertilizer (MSI) and application of rotted farmyard manure with (DYN) or without (FYM) addition of biodynamic preparations, each at high (140 – 150 kg N ha-1 year-1; MSIH, DYNH, FYMH), medium (100 kg N ha-1 year-1; MSIM, DYNM, FYMM) and low (50 – 60 kg N ha-1 year-1; MSIL, DYNL, FYML) rates. The main findings were: (i) The stocks of Corg (t ha-1) were affected by fertilizer type and rate and increased in the order MSIL (23.6), MSIM (23.7), MSIH (24.2) < FYML (25.3) < FYMM (28.1), FYMH (28.1). Stocks of Nt were affected in the same way (C/N ratio: 11). Storage of C and N in the modelled labile pools (turnover times: 462 and 153 days for C and N, respectively) were not influenced by the type of fertilizer (FYM and MSI) but depended significantly (p ≤ 0.05) on the application rate and ranged from 1.8 to 3.2 t C ha 1 (7 – 13% of Corg) and from 90 to 140 kg N ha-1 (4-5% of Nt). In the calculated intermediate pool (C/N ratio 7), stocks of C were markedly higher in FYM treatments (15-18 t ha-1) compared to MSI treatments (12-14 t ha-1). This showed that differences in SOM stocks in the sandy Cambisol induced by fertilizer rate may be short-lived in case of changing management, but differences induced by fertilizer type may persist for decades. (ii) Crop yields, estimated C inputs (1.5 t ha-1 year-1) with crop residue, microbial bio¬mass C (Cmic, 118 – 150 mg kg-1), microbial biomass N (17 – 20 mg kg-1) and labile C and N pools did not differ significantly between FYM and DYN treatments. However, labile C increased linearly with application rate (R2 = 0.53) from 7 to 11% of Corg. This also applied for labile N (3.5 to 4.9% of Nt). The higher contents of Corg in DYN treatments existed since 1982, when the first sampling was conducted for all individual treatments. Contents of Corg between DYN and FYM treatments con-verged slightly since then. Furthermore, at least 30% of the difference in Corg was located in the passive pool where a treatment effect could be excluded. Therefore, the reported differences in Corg contents existed most likely since the beginning of the experiment and, as a single factor of biodynamic agriculture, application of bio-dynamic preparations had no effect on SOM stocks. (iii) Stocks of SOM, light fraction organic C (LFOC, ρ ≤ 2.0 g cm-3), light fraction organic N and Cmic decreased in the order FYMH > FYML > MSIH, MSIL for all sampling dates in 2008 (March, May, September, December). However, statistical significance of treatment effects differed between the dates, probably due to dif-ferences in the spatial variation throughout the year. The high proportion of LFOC on total Corg stocks (45 – 55%) highlighted the importance of selective preservation of OM as a stabilization mechanism in this sandy Cambisol. The apparent turnover time of LFOC was between 21 and 32 years, which agreed very well with studies with substantially longer vegetation change compared to our study. Overall, both approaches; (I) the combination of incubation, chemical fractionation and simple modelling and (II) the density fractionation; provided complementary information on the partitioning of SOM into pools of different stability. The density fractionation showed that differences in Corg stocks between FYM and MSI treatments were mainly located in the light fraction, i.e. induced by higher recalcitrance of the organic input in the FYM treatments. Moreover, the use of the combination of biological, chemical and mathematical methods indicated that effects of fertilizer rate on total Corg and Nt stocks may be short-lived, but that the effect of fertilizer type may persist for longer time spans in the sandy Cambisol.

Identification of Problem-based learning components and their effects on graduates' competencies

This study investigated the relationship between higher education and the requirement of the world of work with an emphasis on the effect of problem-based learning (PBL) on graduates' competencies. The implementation of full PBL method is costly (Albanese & Mitchell, 1993; Berkson, 1993; Finucane, Shannon, & McGrath, 2009). However, the implementation of PBL in a less than curriculum-wide mode is more achievable in a broader context (Albanese, 2000). This means higher education institutions implement only a few PBL components in the curriculum. Or a teacher implements a few PBL components at the courses level. For this kind of implementation there is a need to identify PBL components and their effects on particular educational outputs (Hmelo-Silver, 2004; Newman, 2003). So far, however there has been little research about this topic. The main aims of this study were: (1) to identify each of PBL components which were manifested in the development of a valid and reliable PBL implementation questionnaire and (2) to determine the effect of each identified PBL component to specific graduates' competencies. The analysis was based on quantitative data collected in the survey of medicine graduates of Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia. A total of 225 graduates responded to the survey. The result of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) showed that all individual constructs of PBL and graduates' competencies had acceptable GOFs (Goodness-of-fit). Additionally, the values of the factor loadings (standardize loading estimates), the AVEs (average variance extracted), CRs (construct reliability), and ASVs (average shared squared variance) showed the proof of convergent and discriminant validity. All values indicated valid and reliable measurements. The investigation of the effects of PBL showed that each PBL component had specific effects on graduates' competencies. Interpersonal competencies were affected by Student-centred learning (β = .137; p < .05) and Small group components (β = .078; p < .05). Problem as stimulus affected Leadership (β = .182; p < .01). Real-world problems affected Personal and organisational competencies (β = .140; p < .01) and Interpersonal competencies (β = .114; p < .05). Teacher as facilitator affected Leadership (β = 142; p < .05). Self-directed learning affected Field-related competencies (β = .080; p < .05). These results can help higher education institution and educator to have informed choice about the implementation of PBL components. With this information higher education institutions and educators could fulfil their educational goals and in the same time meet their limited resources. This study seeks to improve prior studies' research method in four major ways: (1) by indentifying PBL components based on theory and empirical data; (2) by using latent variables in the structural equation modelling instead of using a variable as a proxy of a construct; (3) by using CFA to validate the latent structure of the measurement, thus providing better evidence of validity; and (4) by using graduate survey data which is suitable for analysing PBL effects in the frame work of the relationship between higher education and the world of work.

The Individual is Nothing, the Class Everything: Psychophysics and Modeling of Recognition in Obect Classes

Most psychophysical studies of object recognition have focussed on the recognition and representation of individual objects subjects had previously explicitely been trained on. Correspondingly, modeling studies have often employed a 'grandmother'-type representation where the objects to be recognized were represented by individual units. However, objects in the natural world are commonly members of a class containing a number of visually similar objects, such as faces, for which physiology studies have provided support for a representation based on a sparse population code, which permits generalization from the learned exemplars to novel objects of that class. In this paper, we present results from psychophysical and modeling studies intended to investigate object recognition in natural ('continuous') object classes. In two experiments, subjects were trained to perform subordinate level discrimination in a continuous object class - images of computer-rendered cars - created using a 3D morphing system. By comparing the recognition performance of trained and untrained subjects we could estimate the effects of viewpoint-specific training and infer properties of the object class-specific representation learned as a result of training. We then compared the experimental findings to simulations, building on our recently presented HMAX model of object recognition in cortex, to investigate the computational properties of a population-based object class representation as outlined above. We find experimental evidence, supported by modeling results, that training builds a viewpoint- and class-specific representation that supplements a pre-existing repre-sentation with lower shape discriminability but possibly greater viewpoint invariance.

Differential effects of insulin signaling on individual carbon fluxes for fatty acid synthesis in brown adipocytes

Considering the major role of insulin signaling on fatty acid synthesis via stimulation of lipogenic enzymes, differential effects of insulin signaling on individual carbon fluxes for fatty acid synthesis have been investigated by comparing the individual lipogenic fluxes in WT and IRS-1 knockout (IRS-1 KO) brown adipocytes. Results from experiments on WT and IRS-1 KO cells incubated with [5-¹³C] glutamine were consistent with the existence of reductive carboxylation pathway. Analysis of isotopomer distribution of nine metabolites related to the lipogenic routes from glucose and glutamine in IRS-1 KO cells using [U-¹³C] glutamine as compared to that in WT cells indicated that flux through reductive carboxylation pathway was diminished while flux through conventional TCA cycle was stimulated due to absence of insulin signaling in IRS-1 KO cells. This observation was confirmed by quantitative estimation of individual lipogenic fluxes in IRS-1 KO cells and their comparison with fluxes in WT cells. Thus, these results suggest that glutamine’s substantial contribution to fatty acid synthesis can be directly manipulated by controlling the flux through reductive carboxylation of alpha-ketoglutarate to citrate using hormone (insulin).

Exercise and Training at Altitudes: Physiological Effects and Protocols

An increase in altitude leads to a proportional fall in the barometric pressure, and a decrease in atmospheric oxygen pressure, producing hypobaric hypoxia that affects, in different degrees, all body organs, systems and functions. The chronically reduced partial pressure of oxygen causes that individuals adapt and adjust to physiological stress. These adaptations are modulated by many factors, including the degree of hypoxia related to altitude, time of exposure, exercise intensity and individual conditions. It has been established that exposure to high altitude is an environmental stressor that elicits a response that contributes to many adjustments and adaptations that influence exercise capacity and endurance performance. These adaptations include in crease in hemoglobin concentration, ventilation, capillary density and tissue myoglobin concentration. However, a negative effect in strength and power is related to a decrease in muscle fiber size and body mass due to the decrease in the training intensity. Many researches aim at establishing how training or living at high altitudes affects performance in athletes. Training methods, such as living in high altitudes training low, and training high-living in low altitudes have been used to research the changes in the physical condition in athletes and how the physiological adaptations to hypoxia can enhanceperformance at sea level. This review analyzes the literature related to altitude training focused on how physiological adaptations to hypoxic environments influence performance, and which protocols are most frequently used to train in high altitudes.

Learning from errors : effects of teachers training on students??? attitudes towards and their individual use of errors

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Basis set and electron correlation effects on initial convergence for vibrational nonlinear optical properties of conjugated organic molecules

The level of ab initio theory which is necessary to compute reliable values for the static and dynamic (hyper)polarizabilities of three medium size π-conjugated organic nonlinear optical (NLO) molecules is investigated. With the employment of field-induced coordinates in combination with a finite field procedure, the calculations were made possible. It is stated that to obtain reasonable values for the various individual contributions to the (hyper)polarizability, it is necessary to include electron correlation. Based on the results, the convergence of the usual perturbation treatment for vibrational anharmonicity was examined

Combined Analysis of the Short-Term Effects of Photochemical Air Pollutants on Mortality within the EMECAM Project

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO2, once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 μg/m3 increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO2 level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval(CI), –0.003–0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution

Individual differences in the effects of perceived controllability on pain perception: critical role of the prefrontal cortex

The degree to which perceived controllability alters the way a stressor is experienced varies greatly among individuals. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural activation associated with individual differences in the impact of perceived controllability on self-reported pain perception. Subjects with greater activation in response to uncontrollable (UC) rather than controllable (C) pain in the pregenual anterior cingulate cortex (pACC), periaqueductal gray (PAG), and posterior insula/SII reported higher levels of pain during the UC versus C conditions. Conversely, subjects with greater activation in the ventral lateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) in anticipation of pain in the UC versus C conditions reported less pain in response to UC versus C pain. Activation in the VLPFC was significantly correlated with the acceptance and denial subscales of the COPE inventory [Carver, C. S., Scheier, M. F., & Weintraub, J. K. Assessing coping strategies: A theoretically based approach. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56, 267–283, 1989], supporting the interpretation that this anticipatory activation was associated with an attempt to cope with the emotional impact of uncontrollable pain. A regression model containing the two prefrontal clusters (VLPFC and pACC) predicted 64% of the variance in pain rating difference, with activation in the two additional regions (PAG and insula/SII) predicting almost no additional variance. In addition to supporting the conclusion that the impact of perceived controllability on pain perception varies highly between individuals, these findings suggest that these effects are primarily top-down, driven by processes in regions of the prefrontal cortex previously associated with cognitive modulation of pain and emotion regulation.

Individual differences in some (but not all) medial prefrontal regions reflect cognitive demand while regulating unpleasant emotion.

The present study investigated the premise that individual differences in autonomic physiology could be used to specify the nature and consequences of information processing taking place in medial prefrontal regions during cognitive reappraisal of unpleasant pictures. Neural (blood oxygenation level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging) and autonomic (electrodermal [EDA], pupil diameter, cardiac acceleration) signals were recorded simultaneously as twenty-six older people (ages 64–66 years) used reappraisal to increase, maintain, or decrease their responses to unpleasant pictures. EDA was higher when increasing and lower when decreasing compared to maintaining. This suggested modulation of emotional arousal by reappraisal. By contrast, pupil diameter and cardiac acceleration were higher when increasing and decreasing compared to maintaining. This suggested modulation of cognitive demand. Importantly, reappraisal-related activation (increase, decrease > maintain) in two medial prefrontal regions (dorsal medial frontal gyrus and dorsal cingulate gyrus) was correlated with greater cardiac acceleration (increase, decrease > maintain) and monotonic changes in EDA (increase > maintain > decrease). These data indicate that these two medial prefrontal regions are involved in the allocation of cognitive resources to regulate unpleasant emotion, and that they modulate emotional arousal in accordance with the regulatory goal. The emotional arousal effects were mediated by the right amygdala. Reappraisal-related activation in a third medial prefrontal region (subgenual anterior cingulate cortex) was not associated with similar patterns of change in any of the autonomic measures, thus highlighting regional specificity in the degree to which cognitive demand is reflected in medial prefrontal activation during reappraisal.

Plant species and functional group effects on abiotic and microbial soil properties and plant-soil feedback responses in two grasslands

1 Plant species differ in their capacity to influence soil organic matter, soil nutrient availability and the composition of soil microbial communities. Their influences on soil properties result in net positive or negative feedback effects, which influence plant performance and plant community composition. 2 For two grassland systems, one on a sandy soil in the Netherlands and one on a chalk soil in the United Kingdom, we investigated how individual plant species grown in monocultures changed abiotic and biotic soil conditions. Then, we determined feedback effects of these soils to plants of the same or different species. Feedback effects were analysed at the level of plant species and plant taxonomic groups (grasses vs. forbs). 3 In the sandy soils, plant species differed in their effects on soil chemical properties, in particular potassium levels, but PLFA (phospholipid fatty acid) signatures of the soil microbial community did not differ between plant species. The effects of soil chemical properties were even greater when grasses and forbs were compared, especially because potassium levels were lower in grass monocultures. 4 In the chalk soil, there were no effects of plant species on soil chemical properties, but PLFA profiles differed significantly between soils from different monocultures. PLFA profiles differed between species, rather than between grasses and forbs. 5 In the feedback experiment, all plant species in sandy soils grew less vigorously in soils conditioned by grasses than in soils conditioned by forbs. These effects correlated significantly with soil chemical properties. None of the seven plant species showed significant differences between performance in soil conditioned by the same vs. other plant species. 6 In the chalk soil, Sanguisorba minor and in particular Briza media performed best in soil collected from conspecifics, while Bromus erectus performed best in soil from heterospecifics. There was no distinctive pattern between soils collected from forb and grass monocultures, and plant performance could not be related to soil chemical properties or PLFA signatures. 7 Our study shows that mechanisms of plant-soil feedback can depend on plant species, plant taxonomic (or functional) groups and site-specific differences in abiotic and biotic soil properties. Understanding how plant species can influence their rhizosphere, and how other plant species respond to these changes, will greatly enhance our understanding of the functioning and stability of ecosystems.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - I. Effects of ensiling temperature, enzyme source and addition level

A series of experiments was completed to investigate the impact of addition of enzymes at ensiling on in vitro rumen degradation of maize silage. Two commercial products, Depot 40 (D, Biocatalysts Ltd., Pontypridd, UK) and Liquicell 2500 (L, Specialty Enzymes and Biochemicals, Fresno, CA, USA), were used. In experiment 1, the pH optima over a pH range 4.0-6.8 and the stability of D and L under changing pH (4.0, 5.6, 6.8) and temperature (15 and 39 degreesC) conditions were determined. In experiment 2, D and L were applied at three levels to whole crop maize at ensiling, using triplicate 0.5 kg capacity laboratory minisilos. A completely randomized design with a factorial arrangement of treatments was used. One set of treatments was stored at room temperature, whereas another set was stored at 40 degreesC during the first 3 weeks of fermentation, and then stored at room temperature. Silages were opened after 120 days. Results from experiment I indicated that the xylanase activity of both products showed an optimal pH of about 5.6, but the response differed according to the enzyme, whereas the endoglucanase activity was inversely related to pH. Both products retained at least 70% of their xylanase activity after 48 h incubation at 15 or 39 degreesC. In experiment 2, enzymes reduced (P < 0.05) silage pH, regardless of storage temperature and enzyme level. Depol 40 reduced (P < 0.05) the starch contents of the silages, due to its high alpha-amylase activity. This effect was more noticeable in the silages stored at room temperature. Addition of L reduced (P < 0.05) neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent fiber (ADF) contents. In vitro rumen degradation, assessed using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT), showed that L increased (P < 0.05) the initial 6 h gas production (GP) and organic matter degradability (OMD), but did not affect (P > 0.05) the final extent of OMD, indicating that this preparation acted on the rumen degradable material. In contrast, silages treated with D had reduced (P < 0.05) rates of gas production and OMD. These enzymes, regardless of ensiling temperature, can be effective in improving the nutritive quality of maize silage when applied at ensiling. However, the biochemical properties of enzymes (i.e., enzymic activities, optimum pH) may have a crucial role in dictating the nature of the responses. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparative study of the effects of metal contamination on collembola in the field and in the laboratory

We examined the species diversity and abundance of Collembola at 32 sampling points along a gradient of metal contamination in a rough grassland site ( Wolverhampton, England), formerly used for the disposal of metal-rich smelting waste. Differences in the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn between the least and most contaminated part of the 35 metre transect were more than one order of magnitude. A gradient of Zn concentrations from 597 to 9080 mug g(-1) dry soil was found. A comparison between field concentrations of the four metals and previous studies on their relative toxicities to Collembola, suggested that Zn is likely to be responsible for any ecotoxicological effects on springtails at this site. Euedaphic ( soil dwelling) Collembola were extracted by placing soil cores into Tullgren funnels and epedaphic ( surface dwelling) species were sampled using pitfall traps. There was no obvious relationship between the total abundance, or a range of commonly used diversity indices, and Zn levels in soils. However, individual species showed considerable differences in abundance. Metal "tolerant'' (e.g., Ceratophysella denticulata) and metal "sensitive'' (e.g., Cryptopygus thermophilus) species could be identified. Epedaphic species appeared to be influenced less by metal contamination than euedaphic species. This difference is probably due to the higher mobility and lower contact with the soil pore water of epedaphic springtails in comparison to euedaphic Collembola. In an experiment exposing the standard test springtail, Folsomia candida, to soils from all 32 sampling points, adult survival and reproduction showed small but significant negative relationships with total Zn concentrations. Nevertheless, juveniles were still produced from eggs laid by females in the most contaminated soils with 9080 mug g(-1) Zn. Folsomia candida is much more sensitive to equivalent concentrations of Zn in the standard OECD soil. Thus, care should be taken in extrapolating the results of laboratory toxicity tests on metals in OECD soil to field soils, in which, the biological availability of contaminants is likely to be lower. Our studies have shown the importance of ecotoxicological effects at the species level. Although there may be no differences in overall abundance, sensitive species that are numerous in contaminated sites, and which may play important roles in decomposition("keystone species'') can be greatly reduced in numbers by pollution.

Three-level main-effects designs exploiting prior information about model uncertainty

To explore the projection efficiency of a design, Tsai, et al [2000. Projective three-level main effects designs robust to model uncertainty. Biometrika 87, 467-475] introduced the Q criterion to compare three-level main-effects designs for quantitative factors that allow the consideration of interactions in addition to main effects. In this paper, we extend their method and focus on the case in which experimenters have some prior knowledge, in advance of running the experiment, about the probabilities of effects being non-negligible. A criterion which incorporates experimenters' prior beliefs about the importance of each effect is introduced to compare orthogonal, or nearly orthogonal, main effects designs with robustness to interactions as a secondary consideration. We show that this criterion, exploiting prior information about model uncertainty, can lead to more appropriate designs reflecting experimenters' prior beliefs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.