Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

A linkage and cross-sectional study of hypertension and obesity using a poly(A) Alu-repeat polymorphism at the glucagon receptor gene locus (17q25)

1. Previous glucagon receptor gene (GCGR) studies have shown a Gly40Ser mutation to be more prevalent in essential hypertension and to affect glucagon binding affinity to its receptor. An Alu-repeat poly(A) polymorphism colocalized to GCGR was used in the present study to test for association and linkage in hypertension as well as association in obesity development. 2. Using a cross-sectional approach, 85 hypertensives and 95 normotensives were genotyped using polymerase chain reaction primers flanking the Alu-repeat. Both hypertensive and normotensive populations were subdivided into lean and obese categories based on body mass index (BMI) to determine involvement of this variant in obesity. For the linkage study, 89 Australian Caucasian hypertension affected sibships (174 sibpairs) were genotyped and the results were analysed using GENE-HUNTER, Mapmaker Sibs, ERPA and SPLINK (all freely available from http://linlkage.rockefeller. edu/soft/list.html). 3. Cross-sectional results for both hypertension and obesity were analysed using Chi-squared and Monte Carlo analyses. Results did not show an association of this variant with either hypertension (χ2 = 6.9, P = 0.14; Monte Carlo χ2 = 7.0, P = 0.11; n = 5000) or obesity (χ2 = 3.3, P = 0.35; Monte Carlo χ2 = 3.26, P = 0.34; n = 5000). In addition, results from the linkage study using hypertensive sib-pairs did not indicate linkage of the poly(A) repent with hypertension. Hence, results did not indicate a role far the Alu-repeat in either hypertension or obesity. However, as the heterozygosity of this poly(A) repeat is low (35%), a larger number of hypertensive sib-pairs may be required to draw definitive conclusions.

Environments For Healthy Living (EFHL) Griffith birth cohort study : characteristics of sample and profile of antenatal exposures

Background The Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) study is a repeated sample, longitudinal birth cohort in South East Queensland, Australia. We describe the sample characteristics and profile of maternal, household, and antenatal exposures. Variation and data stability over recruitment years were examined. Methods Four months each year from 2006, pregnant women were recruited to EFHL at routine antenatal visits on or after 24 weeks gestation, from three public maternity hospitals. Participating mothers completed a baseline questionnaire on individual, familial, social and community exposure factors. Perinatal data were extracted from hospital birth records. Descriptive statistics and measures of association were calculated comparing the EFHL birth sample with regional and national reference populations. Data stability of antenatal exposure factors was assessed across five recruitment years (2006–2010 inclusive) using the Gamma statistic for ordinal data and chi-squared for nominal data. Results Across five recruitment years 2,879 pregnant women were recruited which resulted in 2904 live births with 29 sets of twins. EFHL has a lower representation of early gestational babies, fewer still births and a lower percentage of low birth weight babies, when compared to regional data. The majority of women (65%) took a multivitamin supplement during pregnancy, 47% consumed alcohol, and 26% reported having smoked cigarettes. There were no differences in rates of a range of antenatal exposures across five years of recruitment, with the exception of increasing maternal pre-pregnancy weight (p=0.0349), decreasing rates of high maternal distress (p=0.0191) and decreasing alcohol consumption (p<0.0001). Conclusions The study sample is broadly representative of births in the region and almost all factors showed data stability over time. This study, with repeated sampling of birth cohorts over multiple years, has the potential to make important contributions to population health through evaluating longitudinal follow-up and within cohort temporal effects.

The interface of acute and aged care : the role of the nurse in a provincial area

Objective This study was to investigate issues that arose from pre-admission to post-discharge, for people in Toowoomba, Queensland over the age of 65 admitted to an acute facility. This paper concentrates on a significant concern that emerged from the large amount of data collected during this project, that is,the role of the nurse in the continuum of health care involving elderly people. Method The study involved a multi-site, multi-agency and multi-method (qualitative and quantitative) approach. Data was collected from regional service providers, the Department of Health and Aged Care (DHAC), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Home and Community Care (HACC), the Aged Care Assessment Team (ACAT), elderly people who had been discharged from regional hospitals and their carers, residents of regional aged care facilities, area health professionals and elderly regional hospital inpatients. Results The data indicated that nurses in this provincial area currently play a limited role in preadmission planning, being mostly concerned with elective surgery, especially joint replacements. While nurses deliver the majority of care during hospitalisation, they do not appear to be cognizant of the needs of the elderly regarding post-acute discharge. Conclusion The recent introduction of the model of nurse case management in the acute sector appears to be a positive development that will streamline and optimise the health care of the elderly across the continuum in the Toowoomba area. The paper recommends some strategies, such as discharge liaison nurses based in Emergency Departments and the expansion of the nurse case management role, which would optimise care for the elderly person at the interface of care.

Ergodic capacity and outage performance of amplify-and-forward protocols

This thesis analyses the performance bounds of amplify-and-forward relay channels which are becoming increasingly popular in wireless communication applications. The statistics of cascaded Nakagami-m fading model which is a major obstacle in evaluating the outage of wireless networks is analysed using Mellin transform. Furthermore, the upper and the lower bounds for the ergodic capacity of the slotted amplify-and-forward relay channel, for finite and infinite number of relays are derived using random matrix theory. The results obtained will enable wireless network designers to optimize the network resources, benefiting the consumers.

Shifting Powers : Protection of Refugees and Displaced Persons in the Asia Pacific Region

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' (UNHCR) 2011 statistics on refugee populations residing by region are a stark reminder of the challenge facing states and civil society in the Asia Pacific. In 2011, Africa hosted 2,149,000 refugees; the Americas, Europe, and Middle East and North Africa hosted 513 ,500, 1,605,500 and 1,889,900 respectively, while the Asia Pacific hosted a staggering 3,793,900. The fact that 35 per cent of the world's refugees reside in the Asia Pacific, coupled with the fact that 84 per cent of refugees displaced in Asia remain in the region,raises the questions why so few countries in the region are signatories to the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees ('Refugee Convention') or cognate rights instruments and why no formally binding regional agreement exists for the equitable sharing of responsibilities for refugees...

Cell image classification using histograms, higher order statistics and adaboost

A cell classification algorithm that uses first, second and third order statistics of pixel intensity distributions over pre-defined regions is implemented and evaluated. A cell image is segmented into 6 regions extending from a boundary layer to an inner circle. First, second and third order statistical features are extracted from histograms of pixel intensities in these regions. Third order statistical features used are one-dimensional bispectral invariants. 108 features were considered as candidates for Adaboost based fusion. The best 10 stage fused classifier was selected for each class and a decision tree constructed for the 6-class problem. The classifier is robust, accurate and fast by design.

Combined analysis of categorical and numerical descriptors of Australian groundnut accessions using nonlinear principal component analysis

For users of germplasm collections, the purpose of measuring characterization and evaluation descriptors, and subsequently using statistical methodology to summarize the data, is not only to interpret the relationships between the descriptors, but also to characterize the differences and similarities between accessions in relation to their phenotypic variability for each of the measured descriptors. The set of descriptors for the accessions of most germplasm collections consists of both numerical and categorical descriptors. This poses problems for a combined analysis of all descriptors because few statistical techniques deal with mixtures of measurement types. In this article, nonlinear principal component analysis was used to analyze the descriptors of the accessions in the Australian groundnut collection. It was demonstrated that the nonlinear variant of ordinary principal component analysis is an appropriate analytical tool because subspecies and botanical varieties could be identified on the basis of the analysis and characterized in terms of all descriptors. Moreover, outlying accessions could be easily spotted and their characteristics established. The statistical results and their interpretations provide users with a more efficient way to identify accessions of potential relevance for their plant improvement programs and encourage and improve the usefulness and utilization of germplasm collections.

Comparison of block and event-related experimental designs in diffusion-weighted functional MRI

PURPOSE To compare diffusion-weighted functional magnetic resonance imaging (DfMRI), a novel alternative to the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) contrast, in a functional MRI experiment. MATERIALS AND METHODS Nine participants viewed contrast reversing (7.5 Hz) black-and-white checkerboard stimuli using block and event-related paradigms. DfMRI (b = 1800 mm/s2 ) and BOLD sequences were acquired. Four parameters describing the observed signal were assessed: percent signal change, spatial extent of the activation, the Euclidean distance between peak voxel locations, and the time-to-peak of the best fitting impulse response for different paradigms and sequences. RESULTS The BOLD conditions showed a higher percent signal change relative to DfMRI; however, event-related DfMRI showed the strongest group activation (t = 21.23, P < 0.0005). Activation was more diffuse and spatially closer to the BOLD response for DfMRI when the block design was used. DfMRIevent showed the shortest TTP (4.4 +/- 0.88 sec). CONCLUSION The hemodynamic contribution to DfMRI may increase with the use of block designs.

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial datasets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally-constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here, we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlation of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat, have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents travelled at least 33 km offshore, and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.

Development of fourth-grade students’ understanding of experimental and theoretical probability

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, TinkerPlots. Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of uncertainty, although an understanding of chance concepts appeared limited. Predicting outcomes of 10 tosses reflected an intuitive notion of equiprobability, with little awareness of variation. Understanding the relationship between experimental and theoretical probability did not emerge until multiple outcomes and representations were generated with the software.

Demographics and discharge outcomes of dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees at a subacute rehabilitation unit: A 7-year series

Objective To examine personal and social demographics, and rehabilitation discharge outcomes of dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees. Methods In total, 425 lower limb amputation inpatient rehabilitation admissions (335 individuals) from 2005 to 2011 were examined. Admission and discharge descriptive statistics (frequency, percentages) were calculated and compared by aetiology. Results Participants were male (74%), aged 65 years (s.d. 14), born in Australia (72%), had predominantly dysvascular aetiology (80%) and a median length of stay 48 days (interquartile range (IQR): 25–76). Following amputation, 56% received prostheses for mobility, 21% (n = 89) changed residence and 28% (n = 116) required community services. Dysvascular amputees were older (mean 67 years, s.d. 12 vs 54 years, s.d. 16; P < 0.001) and recorded lower functional independence measure – motor scores at admission (z = 3.61, P < 0.001) and discharge (z = 4.52, P < 0.001). More nonvascular amputees worked before amputation (43% vs 11%; P < 0.001), were prescribed a prosthesis by discharge (73% vs 52%; P < 0.001) and had a shorter length of stay (7 days, 95% confidence interval: –3 to 17), although this was not statistically significant. Conclusions Differences exist in social and demographic outcomes between dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees.

Prevalence of bullying and its relationship with trauma symptoms in young Iranian students

Objective Bullying and peer victimization in school are serious concerns for students, parents, psychologists, and school officials around the world. This descriptive study examined bullying/victimization among Iranian students and the relationship between bullying and trauma symptoms. Methods This study was a cross-sectional research and descriptive correlative study. Descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation were used to analyze the data. The Revised Olweus Bully/Victim Questionnaire and Trauma symptoms checklist for children (TSCC-A) were administered to 591(325males and 266 females) students aged 10 to 14 year. Results The results revealed that 38.4 % of students reported bullying behavior. In addition, victims had the highest level of depression, anxiety, and anger compared to uninvolved students. Bullies were not related to trauma symptoms. Conclusion Conclusions include detailed recommendations for further empirical studies.

Estimates of lost material stock of buildings and roads due to the great east Japan earthquake and tsunami

This article describes research conducted for the Japanese government in the wake of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck eastern Japan on March 11, 2011. In this study, material stock analysis (MSA) is used to examine the losses of building and infrastructure materials after this disaster. Estimates of the magnitude of material stock that has lost its social function as a result of a disaster can indicate the quantities required for reconstruction, help garner a better understanding of the volumes of waste flows generated by that disaster, and also help in the course of policy deliberations in the recovery of disaster-stricken areas. Calculations of the lost building and road materials in the five prefectures most affected were undertaken. Analysis in this study is based on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) databases and statistics; it aims to (1) describe in spatial terms what construction materials were lost, (2) estimate the amount of infrastructure material needed to rehabilitate disaster areas, and (3) indicate the amount of lost material stock that should be taken into consideration during government policy deliberations. Our analysis concludes that the material stock losses of buildings and road infrastructure are 31.8 and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. This research approach and the use of spatial MSA can be useful for urban planners and may also convey more appropriate information about disposal based on the work of municipalities in disaster-afflicted areas.

Comparison of fractional and geodesic anisotropy in diffusion tensor images of 90 monozygotic and dizygotic twins

We used diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging (DTI) to reveal the extent of genetic effects on brain fiber microstructure, based on tensor-derived measures, in 22 pairs of monozygotic (MZ) twins and 23 pairs of dizygotic (DZ) twins (90 scans). After Log-Euclidean denoising to remove rank-deficient tensors, DTI volumes were fluidly registered by high-dimensional mapping of co-registered MP-RAGE scans to a geometrically-centered mean neuroanatomical template. After tensor reorientation using the strain of the 3D fluid transformation, we computed two widely used scalar measures of fiber integrity: fractional anisotropy (FA), and geodesic anisotropy (GA), which measures the geodesic distance between tensors in the symmetric positive-definite tensor manifold. Spatial maps of intraclass correlations (r) between MZ and DZ twins were compared to compute maps of Falconer's heritability statistics, i.e. the proportion of population variance explainable by genetic differences among individuals. Cumulative distribution plots (CDF) of effect sizes showed that the manifold measure, GA, comparably the Euclidean measure, FA, in detecting genetic correlations. While maps were relatively noisy, the CDFs showed promise for detecting genetic influences on brain fiber integrity as the current sample expands.