Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.

Information management for viable organisations

The recent global „credit crunch? has brought sharply into focus the need for better understanding of what it takes for organisations to survive. This research seeks to help organisations maintain their „viability? – the ability to maintain a separate existence and survive on their own. Whilst there are a multitude of factors that contribute to organisational viability, information can be viewed as the lifeblood of organisations. This research increases our understanding of how organisations can manage information effectively to help maintain their viability. The viable systems model (VSM) is an established modelling technique that enables the detailed analysis of organisational activity to examine how the structure and functions performed in an organisation contribute to its „viability?. The VSM has been widely applied, in small/large companies, industries and governments. However, whilst the VSM concentrates on the structure and functions necessary for an organisation to be viable, it pays much less attention to information deployment in organisations. Indeed, the VSM is criticised in the literature for being unable to provide much help with detailed information and communication structures and new theories are called for to explore the way people interact and what information they need in the VSM. This research analyses qualitative data collected from four case studies to contribute to our understanding of the role that information plays in organisational viability, making three key contributions to the academic literature. In the information management literature, this research provides new insight into the roles that specific information plays in organisations. In the systems thinking literature, this research extends our understanding of the VSM and builds on its powerful diagnostic capability to provide further criteria to aid in the diagnosis of viable organisations. In the information systems literature, this research develops a framework that can be used to help organisations design more effective information systems.

Pole tip recession in linear tape systems

The tribology of linear tape storage system including Linear Tape Open (LTO) and Travan5 was investigated by combining X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS), Auger Electron Spectroscopy (AES), Optical Microscopy and Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) technologies. The purpose of this study was to understand the tribology mechanism of linear tape systems then projected recording densities may be achieved in future systems. Water vapour pressure or Normalized Water Content (NWC) rather than the Relative Humidity (RH) values (as are used almost universally in this field) determined the extent of PTR and stain (if produced) in linear heads. Approximately linear dependencies were found for saturated PTR increasing with normalized water content increasing over the range studied using the same tape. Fe Stain (if produced) preferentially formed on the head surfaces at the lower water contents. The stain formation mechanism had been identified. Adhesive bond formation is a chemical process that is governed by temperature. Thus the higher the contact pressure, the higher the contact temperature in the interface of head and tape, was produced higher the probability of adhesive bond formation and the greater the amount of transferred material (stain). Water molecules at the interface saturate the surface bonds and makes adhesive junctions less likely. Tape polymeric binder formulation also has a significant role in stain formation, with the latest generation binders producing less transfer of material. This is almost certainly due to higher cohesive bonds within the body of the magnetic layer. TiC in the two-phase ceramic tape-bearing surface (AlTiC) was found to oxidise to form TiO2.The oxidation rate of TiC increased with water content increasing. The oxide was less dense than the underlying carbide; hence the interface between TiO2 oxide and TiC was stressed. Removals of the oxide phase results in the formation of three-body abrasive particles that were swept across the tape head, and gave rise to three-body abrasive wear, particularly in the pole regions. Hence, PTR and subsequent which signal loss and error growth. The lower contact pressure of the LTO system comparing with the Travan5 system ensures that fewer and smaller three-body abrasive particles were swept across the poles and insulator regions. Hence, lower contact pressure, as well as reducing stain in the same time significantly reduces PTR in the LTO system.

The detection and identification of extraneous metals in material conveyance systems

The aim of this work was to design and build an equipment which can detect ferrous and non-ferrous objects in conveyed commodities, discriminate between them and locate the object along the belt and on the width of the belt. The magnetic induction mechanism was used as a means of achieving the objectives of this research. In order to choose the appropriate geometry and size of the induction field source, the field distributions of different source geometries and sizes were studied in detail. From these investigations it was found the square loop geometry is the most appropriate as a field generating source for the purpose of this project. The phenomena of field distribution in the conductors was also investigated. An equipment was designed and built at the preliminary stages of thework based on a flux-gate magnetometer with the ability to detect only ferrous objects.The instrument was designed such that it could be used to detect ferrous objects in the coal conveyors of power stations. The advantages of employing this detector in the power industry over the present ferrous metal electromagnetic separators were also considered. The objectives of this project culminated in the design and construction of a ferrous and non-ferrous detector with the ability to discriminate between ferrous and non-ferrous metals and to locate the objects on the conveying system. An experimental study was carried out to test the performance of the equipment in the detection of ferrous and non-ferrous objects of a given size carried on the conveyor belt. The ability of the equipment to discriminate between the types of metals and to locate the object on the belt was also evaluated experimentally. The benefits which can be gained from the industrial implementations of the equipment were considered. Further topics which may be investigated as an extension of this work are given.

Dark solitons in optical communication systems

This thesis presents experimental and theoretical work on the use of dark optical solitons as data carriers in communications systems. The background chapters provide an introduction to nonlinear optics, and to dark solitons, described as intensity dips in a bright background, with an asymmetrical phase profile. The motivation for the work is explained, considering both the superior stability of dark solitons and the need for a soliton solution suitable for the normal, rather than the anomalous (bright soliton) dispersion regime. The first chapters present two generation techniques, producing packets of dark solitons via bright pulse interaction, and generating continuous trains of dark pulses using a fibre laser. The latter were not dark solitons, but were suitable for imposition of the required phase shift by virtue of their extreme stability. The later chapters focus on the propagation and control of dark solitons. Their response to periodic loss and gain is shown to result in the exponential growth of spectral sidebands. This may be suppressed by reducing the periodicity of the loss/gain cycle or using periodic filtering. A general study of the response of dark solitons to spectral filtering is undertaken, showing dramatic differences in the behaviour of black and 99.9% grey solitons. The importance of this result is highlighted by simulations of propagation in noisy systems, where the timing jitter resulting from random noise is actually enhanced by filtering. The results of using sinusoidal phase modulation to control pulse position are presented, showing that the control is at the expense of serious modulation of the bright background. It is concluded that in almost every case, dark and bright solitons have very different properties, and to continue to make comparisons would not be so productive as to develop a deeper understanding of the interactions between the dark soliton and its bright background.

Evaluation of the importance of astrocytes when screening for acute toxicity in neuronal cell systems

Reliable, high throughput, in vitro preliminary screening batteries have the potential to greatly accelerate the rate at which regulatory neurotoxicity data is generated. This study evaluated the importance of astrocytes when predicting acute toxic potential using a neuronal screening battery of pure neuronal (NT2.N) and astrocytic (NT2.A) and integrated neuronal/astrocytic (NT2.N/A) cell systems derived from the human NT2.D1 cell line, using biochemical endpoints (mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) depolarisation and ATP and GSH depletion). Following exposure for 72 h, the known acute human neurotoxicants trimethyltin-chloride, chloroquine and 6-hydroxydopamine were frequently capable of disrupting biochemical processes in all of the cell systems at non-cytotoxic concentrations. Astrocytes provide key metabolic and protective support to neurons during toxic challenge in vivo and generally the astrocyte containing cell systems showed increased tolerance to toxicant insult compared with the NT2.N mono-culture in vitro. Whilst there was no consistent relationship between MMP, ATP and GSH log IC(50) values for the NT2.N/A and NT2.A cell systems, these data did provide preliminary evidence of modulation of the acute neuronal toxic response by astrocytes. In conclusion, the suitability of NT2 neurons and astrocytes as cell systems for acute toxicity screening deserves further investigation.

Inference by replication in densely connected systems

An efficient Bayesian inference method for problems that can be mapped onto dense graphs is presented. The approach is based on message passing where messages are averaged over a large number of replicated variable systems exposed to the same evidential nodes. An assumption about the symmetry of the solutions is required for carrying out the averages; here we extend the previous derivation based on a replica-symmetric- (RS)-like structure to include a more complex one-step replica-symmetry-breaking-like (1RSB-like) ansatz. To demonstrate the potential of the approach it is employed for studying critical properties of the Ising linear perceptron and for multiuser detection in code division multiple access (CDMA) under different noise models. Results obtained under the RS assumption in the noncritical regime give rise to a highly efficient signal detection algorithm in the context of CDMA; while in the critical regime one observes a first-order transition line that ends in a continuous phase transition point. Finite size effects are also observed. While the 1RSB ansatz is not required for the original problems, it was applied to the CDMA signal detection problem with a more complex noise model that exhibits RSB behavior, resulting in an improvement in performance. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Evaluation of RF power degradation in microwave photonic systems employing uniform period fibre Bragg gratings

The frequency dependent RF power degradation in direct modulated microwave photonic systems employing uniform period fibre Bragg gratingsFBG.as reflective elements is investigated. The results have implications in terms of the available RF bandwidth and the stability requirements for the fibre Bragg gratings.

The human factors of automatic speech recognition in control room systems

This thesis addresses the viability of automatic speech recognition for control room systems; with careful system design, automatic speech recognition (ASR) devices can be useful means for human computer interaction in specific types of task. These tasks can be defined as complex verbal activities, such as command and control, and can be paired with spatial tasks, such as monitoring, without detriment. It is suggested that ASR use be confined to routine plant operation, as opposed the critical incidents, due to possible problems of stress on the operators' speech.  It is proposed that using ASR will require operators to adapt a commonly used skill to cater for a novel use of speech. Before using the ASR device, new operators will require some form of training. It is shown that a demonstration by an experienced user of the device can lead to superior performance than instructions. Thus, a relatively cheap and very efficient form of operator training can be supplied by demonstration by experienced ASR operators. From a series of studies into speech based interaction with computers, it is concluded that the interaction be designed to capitalise upon the tendency of operators to use short, succinct, task specific styles of speech. From studies comparing different types of feedback, it is concluded that operators be given screen based feedback, rather than auditory feedback, for control room operation. Feedback will take two forms: the use of the ASR device will require recognition feedback, which will be best supplied using text; the performance of a process control task will require task feedback integrated into the mimic display. This latter feedback can be either textual or symbolic, but it is suggested that symbolic feedback will be more beneficial. Related to both interaction style and feedback is the issue of handling recognition errors. These should be corrected by simple command repetition practices, rather than use error handling dialogues. This method of error correction is held to be non intrusive to primary command and control operations. This thesis also addresses some of the problems of user error in ASR use, and provides a number of recommendations for its reduction.

Dynamic QoS management and optimisation in service-based systems

Service-based systems that are dynamically composed at run time to provide complex, adaptive functionality are currently one of the main development paradigms in software engineering. However, the Quality of Service (QoS) delivered by these systems remains an important concern, and needs to be managed in an equally adaptive and predictable way. To address this need, we introduce a novel, tool-supported framework for the development of adaptive service-based systems called QoSMOS (QoS Management and Optimisation of Service-based systems). QoSMOS can be used to develop service-based systems that achieve their QoS requirements through dynamically adapting to changes in the system state, environment and workload. QoSMOS service-based systems translate high-level QoS requirements specified by their administrators into probabilistic temporal logic formulae, which are then formally and automatically analysed to identify and enforce optimal system configurations. The QoSMOS self-adaptation mechanism can handle reliability- and performance-related QoS requirements, and can be integrated into newly developed solutions or legacy systems. The effectiveness and scalability of the approach are validated using simulations and a set of experiments based on an implementation of an adaptive service-based system for remote medical assistance.

State-of-the-art in product-service systems

A Product-Service System (PSS) is an integrated combination of products and services. This Western concept embraces a service-led competitive strategy, environmental sustainability, and the basis to differentiate from competitors who simply offer lower priced products. This paper aims to report the state-of-the-art of PSS research by presenting a clinical review of literature currently available on this topic. The literature is classified and the major outcomes of each study are addressed and analysed. On this basis, this paper defines the PSS concept, reports on its origin and features, gives examples of applications along with potential benefits and barriers to adoption, summarizes available tools and methodologies, and identifies future research challenges.