On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

An Anarchist Foreign Minister?: The Ideological Background of Rudolf Holsti

Former Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rudolf Holsti, ended his professional career as a professor at Stanford University. In spring 1941, he encountered a news article on Alexandra Kropotkina and was encouraged to send her a letter. In this letter, Holsti revealed his admiration for her father, "anarchist prince" Pjotr Kropotkin. Holsti’s letter to Alexandra Kropotkina further related that as foreign minister he had even sent food from the Finnish embassy in Moscow to Kropotkin while he was being held in custody by the Soviet authorities. The notion of an anarchist foreign minister is profoundly paradoxical, but the aim of my research is to find Kropotkin’s influences in Holsti's work and publications. Before entering politics, Holsti defended his thesis for PhD at the University of Helsinki in 1913 with a rather anarchist theme, “The Relation of War to the Origin of the State.” My paper and presentation will attempt to answer: how are Kropotkin's ideas present in Holsti's academic work? In addition, Holsti and Kropotkin are case studies who guide my interests in the co-relation between the scientific revolution and social thinking in the 19th century.

THREE HUNDRED YEARS OF THE ST. PETERSBURG PARADOX

The St. Petersburg Paradox was first presented by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1713. It is related to a gambling game whose mathematical expected payoff is infinite, but no reasonable person would pay more than $25 to play it. In the history, a number of ideas in different areas have been developed to solve this paradox, and this report will mainly focus on mathematical perspective of this paradox. Different ideas and papers will be reviewed, including both classical ones of 18th and 19th century and some latest developments. Each model will be evaluated by simulation using Mathematica.

Archiving Montana’s Geologic Data

Since the 19th century, enormous amounts of time and money were invested in the exploration and development of Montana’s natural resources. These investments generated tremendous volumes of geologic, geophysical, and environmental data. Over the years, many of these data have been stored, forgotten, lost, or destroyed. In this lecture, Peggy discusses the steps the Bureau is taking to rescue and make the data available to the public.

Age modeling of young non-varved lake sediments: methods and limits. Examples from two lakes in Central Chile

High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

Zerbrochene Spiegel /1

Der Beitrag beschreibt eine doppelte, verfremdete und letztendlich tragische Spiegelung in der Wahrnehmung von Architektur zwischen Europa und Indien: zwischen 1780 und 1856 entstanden in der nordindischen Stadt Lucknow mehrere große Baukomplexe, die von den indisch-islamischen Herrschern der Stadt in europäisch-klassizistischen Formen gestaltet wurden. Nach dem indischen Aufstand, der in den Jahren 1857 und 1858 gegen die britische Herrschaft in Lucknow losbrach, wurden diese Bauten zum Gegenstand einer scharfen europäischen Architekturkritik. Der erste Abschnitt – "Das Eigene und das Fremde" – betrachtet die westliche Rezeption dieser europäisch-klassizistischen Bauten, die über Jahrzehnte durch ein Negativurteil bestimmt war, das sich aus der politischen Interpretation des indischen Aufstands erklärt. Der zweite Abschnitt – "Kopie und Synthese" – geht auf die Suche nach den Zusammenhängen für die positive Europarezeption in Lucknow und für die negative Kritik dieser Bauten in Europa. Es erweist sich, dass die Praxis von Architekturkopie und die Wahrnehmung europäischer Stilformen bei der Übernahme klassizistischer Motive in Indien deutlich anders war als das exakte und moralisch überhöhte Verständnis von Stilformen im Europa nach 1850.

Zerbrochene Spiegel /2

Der Beitrag beschreibt eine doppelte, verfremdete und letztendlich tragische Spiegelung in der Wahrnehmung von Architektur zwischen Europa und Indien: zwischen 1780 und 1856 entstanden in der nordindischen Stadt Lucknow mehre-re große Baukomplexe, die von den indisch-islamischen Herrschern der Stadt in europäisch-klassizistischen Formen gestaltet wurden. Nach dem indischen Auf-stand, der in den Jahren 1857 und 1858 gegen die britische Herrschaft in Lucknow losbrach, wurden diese Bauten zum Gegenstand einer scharfen europäi-scher Architekturkritik. Der erste Abschnitt – "Das Eigene und das Fremde" – betrachtet die westliche Rezeption dieser europäisch-klassizistischen Bauten, die über Jahrzehnte durch ein Negativurteil bestimmt war, das sich aus der politischen Interpretation des indischen Aufstands erklärt. Der zweite Abschnitt – "Kopie und Synthese" – geht auf die Suche nach den Zusammenhängen für die positive Europarezeption in Lucknow und für die negative Kritik dieser Bauten in Europa. Es erweist sich, dass die Praxis von Architekturkopie und die Wahrnehmung europäischer Stilfor-men bei der Übernahme klassizistischer Motive in Indien deutlich anders war als das exakte und moralisch überhöhte Verständnis von Stilformen im Europa nach 1850.

Zukunftsforschung in Deutschland

Die Zukunftsforschung in Deutschland hat eine Geschichte, deren Wurzeln bis ins 19. Jahrhundert zurückreichen. Im ersten Teil wird dargestellt, wie sich seit etwa 1890 ein systematischer Umgang mit Zukunftsfragen herausbildete, welche Ansätze in der Zwischenkriegszeit entwickelt wurden, unter welchen Bedingungen sich die „Futurologie“ nach 1945 allmählich etablierte und welchen Stand sie bis zum Ende ihrer ersten Hochkonjunktur um 1970 erreichte. Den Schwerpunkt bildet dabei eine Analyse der unterschiedlichen methodischen Strömungen sowie der Institutionalisierung.

Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years

The thermometer-based global surface temperature time series (GST) commands a prominent role in the evidence for global warming, yet this record has considerable uncertainty. An independent record with better geographic coverage would be valuable in understanding recent change in the context of natural variability. We compiled the Paleo Index (PI) from 173 temperature-sensitive proxy time series (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, historical documents). Each series was normalized to produce index values of change relative to a 1901–2000 base period; the index values were then averaged. From 1880 to 1995, the index trends significantly upward, similar to the GST. Smaller-scale aspects of the GST including two warming trends and a warm interval during the 1940s are also observed in the PI. The PI extends to 1730 with 67 records. The upward trend appears to begin in the early 19th century but the year-to-year variability is large and the 1730–1929 trend is small.

Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevatin Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)

High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr-long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb- and 14C-dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S, 70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3 yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca. AD 1400, long-term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Differences between recent and historical records of upperspecies limits in the northern European Alps

Are there differences in historical and recent upper range limits of vascular plants and are such differences more pronounced in individual species groups? The limits of 1103 plants of the Northern Alps are compared to range limits in the mid-19th century. The comparison is based on two surveys. The first survey was conducted by Otto Sendtner in 1848–1853, the second in 1991–2008 during a habitat inventory. To our knowledge this is the first comparative studies reaching back to the end of the “Little Ice Age” and comprising an almost entire regional flora covering the complete range of habitats. During the recent survey, most species were found at higher elevations. Even though the differences fit well with the expected shifts due to climate warming we cannot exclude effects of sampling bias. However, we assume that the relative differences between species groups can be safely interpreted. The differences in upper limits between both surveys were significantly larger among forest species. The most important reason is probably discontinued pasture and mowing, which may have amplified possible warming effects. Nitrogen deposits may have contributed to this effect by placing competitive species in a more advantageous position.

Archaeological Discoveries on Schnidejoch and at Other Ice Sites in the European Alps

Only a few sites in the Alps have produced archaeological finds from melting ice. To date, prehistoric finds from four sites dating from the Neolithic period, the Bronze Age, and the Iron Age have been recovered from small ice patches (Schnidejoch, Lötschenpass, Tisenjoch, and Gemsbichl/Rieserferner). Glaciers, on the other hand, have yielded historic finds and frozen human remains that are not more than a few hundred years old (three glacier mummies from the 16th to the 19th century and military finds from World Wars I and II). Between 2003 and 2010, numerous archaeological finds were recovered from a melting ice patch on the Schnidejoch in the Bernese Alps (Cantons of Berne and Valais, Switzerland). These finds date from the Neolithic period, the Early Bronze Age, the Iron Age, Roman times, and the Middle Ages, spanning a period of 6000 years. The Schnidejoch, at an altitude of 2756 m asl, is a pass in the Wildhorn region of the western Bernese Alps. It has yielded some of the earliest evidence of Neolithic human activity at high altitude in the Alps. The abundant assemblage of finds contains a number of unique artifacts, mainly from organic materials like leather, wood, bark, and fibers. The site clearly proves access to high-mountain areas as early as the 5th millennium BC, and the chronological distribution of the finds indicates that the Schnidejoch pass was used mainly during periods when glaciers were retreating.

Searching the Rhone delta channel in Lake Geneva since François‐Alphonse Forel

In the late 19th century, F.A. FOREL led investigations of the Rhone River delta area of Lake Geneva that resulted in the dis- covery of a textbook example of a river-fed delta system containing impressive subaquatic channels. Well ahead of the marine counterparts, scientific observations and interpretations of water currents shaping the delta edifice for the first time documented how underflow currents carry cold, suspension-laden waters from the river mouth all the way to the deep basin. These early investigations of the Rhone delta laid the basis for follow-up studies in the 20th and 21th centuries. Sediment coring, water-column measurements, manned submersible diving, seismic reflection profiling and bathymetric sur- veying eventually provided a rich database to unravel the key erosional and depositional processes, further documenting the impact of human-induced changes in the catchment. With the merging of old and new scientific knowledge, today a comprehensive understanding prevails of how a delta changes through time, how its channels are formed, and what potential natural hazards may be related to its evolution. New and efficient bathymetric techniques, paired with novel coring operations, provided a time-series of morphologic evolution showing and quantifying the high dynamics of the delta/channel evolution in an unprecedented temporal and spatial reso- lution. Future investigations will continue to further quantify these dynamic processes and to link the evolution of the subaquatic domain with changes and processes in the catchment and with natural hazards. Its size, easy access, and large variety of states and processes will continue to make the Rhone delta area a perfect ‘laboratory’ in which general processes can be studied that could be upscaled or downscaled to other marine and lacustrine deltas.