Some general comparative points on Chao’s and Zelterman’s estimators of population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

General systems perspective on achieving continuous synergy in a project organisation

Studies of construction labour productivity have revealed that limited predictability and multi-agent social complexity make long-range planning of construction projects extremely inaccurate. Fire-fighting, a cultural feature of construction project management, social and structural diversity of involved permanent organizations, and structural temporality all contribute towards relational failures and frequent changes. The main purpose of this paper is therefore to demonstrate that appropriate construction planning may have a profound synergistic effect on structural integration of a project organization. Using the general systems theory perspective it is further a specific objective to investigate and evaluate organizational effects of changes in planning and potentials for achieving continuous project-organizational synergy. The newly developed methodology recognises that planning should also represent a continuous, improvement-leading driving force throughout a project. The synergistic effect of the process planning membership duality fostered project-wide integration, eliminated internal boundaries, and created a pool of constantly upgrading knowledge. It maintained a creative environment that resulted in a number of process-related improvements from all parts of the organization. As a result labour productivity has seen increases of more than 30%, profits have risen from an average of 12% to more than 18%, and project durations have been reduced by several days.

Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Transitional justice in Nepal: the Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons, Truth and Reconciliation Act 2014

The Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons, Truth and Reconciliation Act 2014 is Nepal’s latest attempt to establish a transitional programme to respond to conflict era abuses. In part, the Act remedies the inadequacies of the 2013 Ordinance. It creates two commissions, on truth and reconciliation and enforced disappearances, makes provision for the establishment of a Special Court to try past abuses and incorporates systems to enable vulnerable witnesses to participate in truth seeking. Yet in a number of respects it continues to fall short of international legal standards, not least in the possibility of amnesty for international crimes and gross violations of human rights. In addition, the relationship between the three mechanisms – truth seeking, amnesty and prosecution – remains unclear and safeguards for individual rights are lacking. This paper explores these recent developments, highlighting issues that must be remedied if transitional justice objectives are to be achieved in Nepal.

Studies of Design and Assembly Defects on Integrated and Modular Architectures

It is known that despite companies’ efforts to improve the quality of their products, design and assembly defects results in large repair costs both in terms of repair and providing feedback to the origin of the defect. The purpose of this paper is to study these types of defects and the defect rates in design and assembly. The paper presents a web based questionnaire answered by 29 companies. The result shows that the defect rate (defects per product) spanned from 0.01 to 10. Also, design and assembly defects covered 46%, 23% respectively, of all occurred defects. A case study is also presented, performed at a company who recently implemented a modular architecture. In this company, defects from 5 700 integrated product architectures are compared with defects from 431 modular architectures. The average defect rate increased by 21.5% – from 0.65 to 0.79 – when a more modular architecture has been implemented. Furthermore, the study showed that the assembly defects have decreased while the design defects increased. The results presented in this paper will also support the development of the MPV (Module Property Verification) method which is briefly described.