Improved structure optimization for fuzzy-neural networks

Fuzzy-neural-network-based inference systems are well-known universal approximators which can produce linguistically interpretable results. Unfortunately, their dimensionality can be extremely high due to an excessive number of inputs and rules, which raises the need for overall structure optimization. In the literature, various input selection methods are available, but they are applied separately from rule selection, often without considering the fuzzy structure. This paper proposes an integrated framework to optimize the number of inputs and the number of rules simultaneously. First, a method is developed to select the most significant rules, along with a refinement stage to remove unnecessary correlations. An improved information criterion is then proposed to find an appropriate number of inputs and rules to include in the model, leading to a balanced tradeoff between interpretability and accuracy. Simulation results confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

Feedforward Control of Shape Memory Alloy Actuators Using Fuzzy-Based Inverse Preisach Model

This brief investigates a possible application of the inverse Preisach model in combination with the feedforward and feedback control strategies to control shape memory alloy actuators. In the feedforward control design, a fuzzy-based inverse Preisach model is used to compensate for the hysteresis nonlinearity effect. An extrema input history and a fuzzy inference is utilized to replace the inverse classical Preisach model. This work allows for a reduction in the number of experimental parameters and computation time for the inversion of the classical Preisach model. A proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is used as a feedback controller to regulate the error between the desired output and the system output. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller, real-time control experiment results are presented.

Position control of shape memory alloy actuators using self tuning fuzzy PID controller

Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) actuators, which have the ability to return to a predetermined shape when heated, have many potential applications such as aeronautics, surgical tools, robotics and so on. Although the conventional PID controller can be used with slow response systems, there has been limited success in precise motion control of SMA actuators, since the systems are disturbed by unknown factors beside their inherent nonlinear hysteresis and changes in the surrounding environment of the systems. This paper presents a new development of a SMA position control system by using a self-tuning fuzzy PID controller. This control algorithm is used by tuning the parameters of the PID controller thereby integrating fuzzy inference and producing a fuzzy adaptive PID controller, which can then be used to improve the control performance of nonlinear systems. The experimental results of position control of SMA actuators using conventional and self-tuning fuzzy PID controllers are both included in this paper.

Internal model control for shape memory alloy actuators using fuzzy based Preisach model

This paper investigates a possible application of Preisach model to control shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators using an internal model control strategy. The developed strategy consists in including the Preisach hysteresis model of SMA actuator and the inverse Preisach model within the control structure. In this work, an extrema input hystory and a fuzzy inference is utilized to replace the classical Preisach model. This allows to reduce a large amount of experimental parameters and computation time of the classical Preisach model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller in improving control performance and hysteresis compensation of SMA actuators, experimental results from real time control are presented.

Hierarchical Bayesian models in ecology: Reconstructing species interaction networks from non-homogeneous species abundance data

The relationships among organisms and their surroundings can be of immense complexity. To describe and understand an ecosystem as a tangled bank, multiple ways of interaction and their effects have to be considered, such as predation, competition, mutualism and facilitation. Understanding the resulting interaction networks is a challenge in changing environments, e.g. to predict knock-on effects of invasive species and to understand how climate change impacts biodiversity. The elucidation of complex ecological systems with their interactions will benefit enormously from the development of new machine learning tools that aim to infer the structure of interaction networks from field data. In the present study, we propose a novel Bayesian regression and multiple changepoint model (BRAM) for reconstructing species interaction networks from observed species distributions. The model has been devised to allow robust inference in the presence of spatial autocorrelation and distributional heterogeneity. We have evaluated the model on simulated data that combines a trophic niche model with a stochastic population model on a 2-dimensional lattice, and we have compared the performance of our model with L1-penalized sparse regression (LASSO) and non-linear Bayesian networks with the BDe scoring scheme. In addition, we have applied our method to plant ground coverage data from the western shore of the Outer Hebrides with the objective to infer the ecological interactions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Progressive lung cancer determined by expression profiling and transcriptional regulation

Clinically, our ability to predict disease outcome for patients with early stage lung cancer is currently poor. To address this issue, tumour specimens were collected at surgery from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients as part of the European Early Lung Cancer (EUELC) consortium. The patients were followed-up for three years post-surgery and patients who suffered progressive disease (PD, tumour recurrence, metastasis or a second primary) or remained disease-free (DF) during follow-up were identified. RNA from both tumour and adjacent-normal lung tissue was extracted from patients and subjected to microarray expression profiling. These samples included 36 adenocarcinomas and 23 squamous cell carcinomas from both PD and DF patients. The microarray data was subject to a series of systematic bioinformatics analyses at gene, network and transcription factor levels. The focus of these analyses was 2-fold: firstly to determine whether there were specific biomarkers capable of differentiating between PD and DF patients, and secondly, to identify molecular networks which may contribute to the progressive tumour phenotype. The experimental design and analyses performed permitted the clear differentiation between PD and DF patients using a set of biomarkers implicated in neuroendocrine signalling and allowed the inference of a set of transcription factors whose activity may differ according to disease outcome. Potential links between the biomarkers, the transcription factors and the genes p21/CDKN1A and Myc, which have previously been implicated in NSCLC development, were revealed by a combination of pathway analysis and microarray meta-analysis. These findings suggest that neuroendocrine-related genes, potentially driven through p21/CDKN1A and Myc, are closely linked to whether or not a NSCLC patient will have poor clinical outcome.

The link between logic, mathematics and imagination: evidence from children with developmental dyscalculia and mathematically gifted children

This study examined performance on transitive inference problems in children with developmental dyscalculia (DD), typically developing controls matched on IQ, working memory and reading skills, and in children with outstanding mathematical abilities. Whereas mainstream approaches currently consider DD as a domain-specific deficit, we hypothesized that the development of mathematical skills is closely related to the development of logical abilities, a domain-general skill. In particular, we expected a close link between mathematical skills and the ability to reason independently of one's beliefs. Our results showed that this was indeed the case, with children with DD performing more poorly than controls, and high maths ability children showing outstanding skills in logical reasoning about belief-laden problems. Nevertheless, all groups performed poorly on structurally equivalent problems with belief-neutral content. This is in line with suggestions that abstract reasoning skills (i.e. the ability to reason about content without real-life referents) develops later than the ability to reason about belief-inconsistent fantasy content.A video abstract of this article can be viewed at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90DWY3O4xx8.

Ensuring the statistical soundness of competitive gene set approaches: gene filtering and genome-scale coverage are essential

In this article, we focus on the analysis of competitive gene set methods for detecting the statistical significance of pathways from gene expression data. Our main result is to demonstrate that some of the most frequently used gene set methods, GSEA, GSEArot and GAGE, are severely influenced by the filtering of the data in a way that such an analysis is no longer reconcilable with the principles of statistical inference, rendering the obtained results in the worst case inexpressive. A possible consequence of this is that these methods can increase their power by the addition of unrelated data and noise. Our results are obtained within a bootstrapping framework that allows a rigorous assessment of the robustness of results and enables power estimates. Our results indicate that when using competitive gene set methods, it is imperative to apply a stringent gene filtering criterion. However, even when genes are filtered appropriately, for gene expression data from chips that do not provide a genome-scale coverage of the expression values of all mRNAs, this is not enough for GSEA, GSEArot and GAGE to ensure the statistical soundness of the applied procedure. For this reason, for biomedical and clinical studies, we strongly advice not to use GSEA, GSEArot and GAGE for such data sets.

High-resolution reconstruction of atmospheric deposition of trace metals and metalloids since AD 1400 recorded by ombrotrophic peat cores in Hautes-Fagnes, Belgium

The objective of our study was to determine the trace metal accumulation rates in the Misten bog, Hautes-Fagnes, Belgium, and assess these in relation to established histories of atmospheric emissions from anthropogenic sources. To address these aims we analyzed trace metals and metalloids (Pb, Cu, Ni, As, Sb, Cr, Co, V, Cd and Zn), as well as Pb isotopes, using XRF, Q-ICP-MS and MC-ICP-MS, respectively in two 40-cm peat sections, spanning the last 600 yr. The temporal increase of metal fluxes from the inception of the Industrial Revolution to the present varies by a factor of 5–50, with peak values found between AD 1930 and 1990. A cluster analysis combined with Pb isotopic composition allows the identification of the main sources of Pb and by inference of the other metals, which indicates that coal consumption and metallurgical activities were the predominant sources of pollution during the last 600 years.

Extensive local-scale gene flow and long-term population stability in the intertidal mollusc Katharina tunicata (Mollusca: Polyplacophora)

The dispersal capabilities of intertidal organisms may represent a key factor to their survival in the face of global warming, as species that cannot adapt to the various effects of climate change will have to migrate to track suitable habitat. Although species with pelagic larval phases might be expected to have a greater capacity for dispersal than those with benthic larvae, interspecies comparisons have shown that this is not always the case. Consequently, population genetic approaches are being increasingly used to gain insights into dispersal through studying patterns of gene flow. In the present study, we used nuclear single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing to elucidate fine-scale patterns of genetic variation between populations of the Black Katy Chiton, Katharina tunicata, separated by 15-150 km in south-west Vancouver Island. Both the nuclear and mitochondrial data sets revealed no genetic differentiation between the populations studied, and an isolation-with-migration analysis indicated extensive local-scale gene flow, suggesting an absence of barriers to dispersal. Population demographic analysis also revealed long-term population stability through previous periods of climate change associated with the Pleistocene glaciations. Together, the findings of the present study suggest that this high potential for dispersal may allow K. tunicata to respond to current global warming by tracking suitable habitat, consistent with its long-term demographic stability through previous changes in the Earth's climate. (C) 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106, 589597.

Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

Modeling continuous self-report measures of perceived emotion using generalized additive mixed models

Emotion research has long been dominated by the “standard method” of displaying posed or acted static images of facial expressions of emotion. While this method has been useful it is unable to investigate the dynamic nature of emotion expression. Although continuous self-report traces have enabled the measurement of dynamic expressions of emotion, a consensus has not been reached on the correct statistical techniques that permit inferences to be made with such measures. We propose Generalized Additive Models and Generalized Additive Mixed Models as techniques that can account for the dynamic nature of such continuous measures. These models allow us to hold constant shared components of responses that are due to perceived emotion across time, while enabling inference concerning linear differences between groups. The mixed model GAMM approach is preferred as it can account for autocorrelation in time series data and allows emotion decoding participants to be modelled as random effects. To increase confidence in linear differences we assess the methods that address interactions between categorical variables and dynamic changes over time. In addition we provide comments on the use of Generalized Additive Models to assess the effect size of shared perceived emotion and discuss sample sizes. Finally we address additional uses, the inference of feature detection, continuous variable interactions, and measurement of ambiguity.

DiveRsity: An R package for the estimation and exploration of population genetics parameters and their associated errors

Summary: We present a new R package, diveRsity, for the calculation of various diversity statistics, including common diversity partitioning statistics (?, G) and population differentiation statistics (D, GST ', ? test for population heterogeneity), among others. The package calculates these estimators along with their respective bootstrapped confidence intervals for loci, sample population pairwise and global levels. Various plotting tools are also provided for a visual evaluation of estimated values, allowing users to critically assess the validity and significance of statistical tests from a biological perspective. diveRsity has a set of unique features, which facilitate the use of an informed framework for assessing the validity of the use of traditional F-statistics for the inference of demography, with reference to specific marker types, particularly focusing on highly polymorphic microsatellite loci. However, the package can be readily used for other co-dominant marker types (e.g. allozymes, SNPs). Detailed examples of usage and descriptions of package capabilities are provided. The examples demonstrate useful strategies for the exploration of data and interpretation of results generated by diveRsity. Additional online resources for the package are also described, including a GUI web app version intended for those with more limited experience using R for statistical analysis. © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Religion and the risk of suicide: longitudinal study of over 1 million people

Background: Durkheim’s seminal historical study demonstrated that religious affiliation reduces suicide risk, but it is unclear whether this protective effect persists in modern, more secular societies.

Aims: To examine suicide risk according to Christian religious affiliation and by inference to examine underlying mechanisms for suicide risk. If church attendance is important, risk should be lowest for Roman Catholics and highest for those with no religion; if religiosity is important, then ‘conservative’ Christians should fare best.

Method: A 9-year study followed 1 106 104 people aged 16–74 years at the 2001 UK census, using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for census-based cohort attributes.

Results: In fully adjusted models analysing 1119 cases of suicide, Roman Catholics, Protestants and those professing no religion recorded similar risks. The risk associated with conservative Christians was lower than that for Catholics (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.52–0.97).

Conclusions: The relationship between religious affiliation and suicide established by Durkheim may not pertain in societies where suicide rates are highest at younger ages. Risks are similar for those with and without a religious affiliation, and Catholics (who traditionally are characterised by higher levels of church attendance) do not demonstrate lower risk of suicide. However, religious affiliation is a poor measure of religiosity, except for a small group of conservative Christians, although their lower risk of suicide may be attributable to factors such as lower risk behaviour and alcohol consumption.