Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Ages and relative sizes of pre-2004 tsunamis in the Bay of Bengal inferred from geologic evidence in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Geologic evidence along the northern part of the 2004 Aceh-Andaman rupture suggests that this region generated as many as five tsunamis in the prior 2000years. We identify this evidence by drawing analogy with geologic records of land-level change and the tsunami in 2004 from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (A&N). These analogs include subsided mangrove swamps, uplifted coral terraces, liquefaction, and organic soils coated by sand and coral rubble. The pre-2004 evidence varies in potency, and materials dated provide limiting ages on inferred tsunamis. The earliest tsunamis occurred between the second and sixth centuries A.D., evidenced by coral debris of the southern Car Nicobar Island. A subsequent tsunami, probably in the range A.D. 770-1040, is inferred from deposits both in A&N and on the Indian subcontinent. It is the strongest candidate for a 2004-caliber earthquake in the past 2000years. A&N also contain tsunami deposits from A.D. 1250 to 1450 that probably match those previously reported from Sumatra and Thailand, and which likely date to the 1390s or 1450s if correlated with well-dated coral uplift offshore Sumatra. Thus, age data from A&N suggest that within the uncertainties in estimating relative sizes of paleo-earthquakes and tsunamis, the 1000year interval can be divided in half by the earthquake or earthquakes of A.D. 1250-1450 of magnitude >8.0 and consequent tsunamis. Unlike the transoceanic tsunamis generated by full or partial rupture of the subduction interface, the A&N geology further provides evidence for the smaller-sized historical tsunamis of 1762 and 1881, which may have been damaging locally.

Yanai waves in the western equatorial Indian Ocean

Observations and models have shown the presence of intraseasonal fluctuations in 20-30-day and 10-20-day bands in the equatorial Indian Ocean west of 60 degrees E (WEIO). Their spatial and temporal structures characterize them as Yanai waves, which we label low-frequency (LFYW) and high-frequency (HFYW) Yanai waves, respectively. We explore the dynamics of these intraseasonal signals, using an ocean general circulation model (Modular Ocean Model) and a linear, continuously stratified model. Yanai waves are forced by the meridional wind tau(y) everywhere in the WEIO most strongly during the monsoon seasons. They are forced both directly in the interior ocean and by reflection of the interior response from the western boundary; interference between the interior and boundary responses results in a complex surface pattern that propagates eastward and has nodes. Yanai waves are also forced by instabilities primarily during June/July in a region offshore from the western boundary (52-55 degrees E). At that time, eddies, generated by barotropic instability of the Southern Gyre, are advected southward to the equator. There, they generate a westward-propagating, cross-equatorial flow field, v(eq), with a wave number/frequency spectrum that fits the dispersion relation of a number of Yanai waves, and these waves are efficiently excited. Typically, Yanai waves associated with several baroclinic modes are excited by both wind and eddy forcing; and typically, they superpose to create beams that carry energy vertically and eastward along ray paths. The same processes generate LFYWs and HFYWs, and hence, their responses are similar; differences are traceable to the property that HFYWs have longer wavelengths than LFYWs for each baroclinic mode.

Black hole formation at the correspondence point

We study the process of bound state formation in a D-brane collision. We consider two mechanisms for bound state formation. The first, operative at weak coupling in the worldvolume gauge theory, is pair creation of W-bosons. The second, operative at strong coupling, corresponds to formation of a large black hole in the dual supergravity. These two processes agree qualitatively at intermediate coupling, in accord with the correspondence principle of Horowitz and Polchinski. We show that the size of the bound state and time scale for formation of a bound state agree at the correspondence point. The time scale involves matching a parametric resonance in the gauge theory to a quasinormal mode in supergravity.

Integration of speckle de-noising and image segmentation using synthetic aperture radar image for flood extent extraction

Flood is one of the detrimental hydro-meteorological threats to mankind. This compels very efficient flood assessment models. In this paper, we propose remote sensing based flood assessment using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image because of its imperviousness to unfavourable weather conditions. However, they suffer from the speckle noise. Hence, the processing of SAR image is applied in two stages: speckle removal filters and image segmentation methods for flood mapping. The speckle noise has been reduced with the help of Lee, Frost and Gamma MAP filters. A performance comparison of these speckle removal filters is presented. From the results obtained, we deduce that the Gamma MAP is reliable. The selected Gamma MAP filtered image is segmented using Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) and Mean Shift Segmentation (MSS). The GLCM is a texture analysis method that separates the image pixels into water and non-water groups based on their spectral feature whereas MSS is a gradient ascent method, here segmentation is carried out using spectral and spatial information. As test case, Kosi river flood is considered in our study. From the segmentation result of both these methods are comprehensively analysed and concluded that the MSS is efficient for flood mapping.

An experimental set-up for carbon isotopic analysis of atmospheric CO2 and an example of ecosystem response during solar eclipse 2010

We present here, an experimental set-up developed for the first time in India for the determination of mixing ratio and carbon isotopic ratio of air-CO2. The set-up includes traps for collection and extraction of CO2 from air samples using cryogenic procedures, followed by the measurement of CO2 mixing ratio using an MKS Baratron gauge and analysis of isotopic ratios using the dual inlet peripheral of a high sensitivity isotope ratio mass spectrometer (IRMS) MAT 253. The internal reproducibility (precision) for the PC measurement is established based on repeat analyses of CO2 +/- 0.03 parts per thousand. The set-up is calibrated with international carbonate and air-CO2 standards. An in-house air-CO2 mixture, `OASIS AIRMIX' is prepared mixing CO2 from a high purity cylinder with O-2 and N-2 and an aliquot of this mixture is routinely analyzed together with the air samples. The external reproducibility for the measurement of the CO2 mixing ratio and carbon isotopic ratios are +/- 7 (n = 169) mu mol.mol(-1) and +/- 0.05 (n = 169) parts per thousand based on the mean of the difference between two aliquots of reference air mixture analyzed during daily operation carried out during November 2009-December 2011. The correction due to the isobaric interference of N2O on air-CO2 samples is determined separately by analyzing mixture of CO2 (of known isotopic composition) and N2O in varying proportions. A +0.2 parts per thousand correction in the delta C-13 value for a N2O concentration of 329 ppb is determined. As an application, we present results from an experiment conducted during solar eclipse of 2010. The isotopic ratio in CO2 and the carbon dioxide mixing ratio in the air samples collected during the event are different from neighbouring samples, suggesting the role of atmospheric inversion in trapping the emitted CO2 from the urban atmosphere during the eclipse.

Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters and probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard using logic tree approach

The delineation of seismic source zones plays an important role in the evaluation of seismic hazard. In most of the studies the seismic source delineation is done based on geological features. In the present study, an attempt has been made to delineate seismic source zones in the study area (south India) based on the seismicity parameters. Seismicity parameters and the maximum probable earthquake for these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard for south India was carried out using a logic tree approach. Two different types of seismic sources, linear and areal, were considered in the present study to model the seismic sources in the region more precisely. In order to properly account for the attenuation characteristics of the region, three different attenuation relations were used with different weightage factors. Seismic hazard evaluation was done for the probability of exceedance (PE) of 10% and 2% in 50 years. The spatial variation of rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2500 years for the entire study area are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at ground surface level were estimated based on different NEHRP site classes by considering local site effects.

Dynamics of the Indian-Ocean oxygen minimum zones

In the Indian Ocean, mid-depth oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The lower part of the Arabian-Sea OMZ (ASOMZ; below 400 m) intensifies northward across the basin; in contrast, its upper part (above 400 m) is located in the central/eastern basin, well east of the most productive regions along the western boundary. The Bay-of-Bengal OMZ (BBOMZ), although strong, is weaker than the ASOMZ. To investigate the processes that maintain the Indian-Ocean OMZs, we obtain a suite of solutions to a coupled biological/physical model. Its physical component is a variable-density, 6 1/2-layer model, in which each layer corresponds to a distinct dynamical regime or water-mass type. Its biological component has six compartments: nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, two size classes of detritus, and oxygen. Because the model grid is non-eddy resolving (0.5 degrees), the biological model also includes a parameterization of enhanced mixing based on the eddy kinetic energy derived from satellite observations. To explore further the impact of local processes on OMZs, we also obtain analytic solutions to a one-dimensional, simplified version of the biological model. Our control run is able to simulate basic features of the oxygen, nutrient, and phytoplankton fields throughout the Indian Ocean. The model OMZs result from a balance, or lack thereof, between a sink of oxygen by remineralization and subsurface oxygen sources due primarily to northward spreading of oxygenated water from the Southern Hemisphere, with a contribution from Persian-Gulf water in the northern Arabian Sea. The northward intensification of the lower ASOMZ results mostly from horizontal mixing since advection is weak in its depth range. The eastward shift of the upper ASOMZ is due primarily to enhanced advection and vertical eddy mixing in the western Arabian Sea, which spread oxygenated waters both horizontally and vertically. Advection carries small detritus from the western boundary into the central/eastern Arabian Sea, where it provides an additional source of remineralization that drives the ASOMZ to suboxic levels. The model BBOMZ is weaker than the ASOMZ because the Bay lacks a remote source of detritus from the western boundary. Although detritus has a prominent annual cycle, the model OMZs do not because there is not enough time for significant remineralization to occur.

Data assimilation using ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) in ROMS model for Indian Ocean

Study of Oceans dynamics and forecast is crucial as it influences the regional climate and other marine activities. Forecasting oceanographic states like sea surface currents, Sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth at different time scales is extremely important for these activities. These forecasts are generated by various ocean general circulation models (OGCM). One such model is the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Though ROMS can simulate several features of ocean, it cannot reproduce the thermocline of the ocean properly. Solution to this problem is to incorporates data assimilation (DA) in the model. DA system using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) has been developed for ROMS model to improve the accuracy of the model forecast. To assimilate data temperature and salinity from ARGO data has been used as observation. Assimilated temperature and salinity without localization shows oscillations compared to the model run without assimilation for India Ocean. Same was also found for u and v-velocity fields. With localization we found that the state variables are diverging within the localization scale.

Relook into the historical progress and philosophy of Indian space exploration

A study of the history and philosophy of the contribution of India towards the exploration of space since antiquity provides interesting insights. The contributions are described during the three periods namely: (1) the ten millenniums from 10,000 BC with a twilight period up to 900 AD; (2) the ten centuries from 900 AD to 1900 AD; and (3) the ten decades from 1900 AD to 2000 AD; called mythological, medieval, and modern respectively. Some important events during the above periods provide a reference view of the progress. The Vedas during the mythological period and the Siddhantas during the medieval periods, which are based on astronomical observations, indicate that the Indian contribution preceded other cultures. But most Western historians ignore this fact time and again in spite of many proofs provided to the contrary. This chapter also shows that Indians had the proper scientific attitude of developing any physical theory through the triplet of mind, model, and measurements. It is this same triplet that forms the basis of the present day well known Kalman filter technique. Up to about 1500 BC the Indian contribution was leading but during foreign invasion and occupation it lagged and has been improving only after independence.

Corporate social responsibilities of Indian public sector enterprises-a case study of Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL)

The high level of public accountability attached to Public Sector Enterprises as a result of public ownership makes them socially responsible. The Committee of Public Undertakings in 1992 examined the issue relating to social obligations of Central Public Sector Enterprises and observed that ``being part of the `State', every Public Sector enterprise has a moral responsibility to play an active role in discharging the social obligations endowed on a welfare state, subject to the financial health of the enterprise''. It issued the Corporate Social Responsibility Guidelines in 2010 where all Central Public Enterprises, through a Board Resolution, are mandated to create a CSR budget as a specified percentage of net profit of the previous year. This paper examines the CSR activities of the biggest engineering public sector organization in India, Bharath Heavy Electricals Limited. The objectives are twofold, one, to develop a case study of the organization about the funds allocated and utilized for various CSR activities, and two, to examine its status with regard to other organizations, the 2010 guidelines, and the local socio-economic development. Secondary data analysis results show three interesting trends. One, it reveals increasing organizational social orientation with the formal guidelines in place. Two, Firms can no longer continue to exploit environmental resources and escape from their responsibilities by acting separate entities regardless of the interest of the society and Three the thrust of CSR in public sector is on inclusive growth, sustainable development and capacity building with due attention to the socio-economic needs of the neglected and marginalized sections of the society.

Mutation analysis of the SLC4A11 gene in Indian families with congenital hereditary endothelial dystrophy 2 and a review of the literature

Purpose: Congenital hereditary endothelial dystrophy 2 (CHED2) is an autosomal recessive disorder caused by mutations in the solute carrier family 4, sodium borate transporter, member 11 (SLC4A11) gene. The purpose of this study was to identify the genetic cause of CHED2 in six Indian families and catalog all known mutations in the SLC4A11 gene. Methods: Peripheral blood samples were collected from individuals of the families with CHED2 and used in genomic DNA isolation. PCR primers were used to amplify the entire coding region including intron-exon junctions of SLC4A11. Amplicons were subsequently sequenced to identify the mutations. Results: DNA sequence analysis of the six families identified four novel (viz., p.Thr262Ile, p.Gly417Arg, p.Cys611Arg, and p.His724Asp) mutations and one known p.Arg869His homozygous mutation in the SLC4A11 gene. The mutation p.Gly417Arg was identified in two families. Conclusions: This study increases the mutation spectrum of the SLC4A11 gene. A review of the literature showed that the total number of mutations in the SLC4A11 gene described to date is 78. Most of the mutations are missense, followed by insertions-deletions. The present study will be helpful in genetic diagnosis of the families reported here.

Remote sensing applications in water resources

With the introduction of the earth observing satellites, remote sensing has become an important tool in analyzing the Earth's surface characteristics, and hence in supplying valuable information necessary for the hydrologic analysis. Due to their capability to capture the spatial variations in the hydro-meteorological variables and frequent temporal resolution sufficient to represent the dynamics of the hydrologic processes, remote sensing techniques have significantly changed the water resources assessment and management methodologies. Remote sensing techniques have been widely used to delineate the surface water bodies, estimate meteorological variables like temperature and precipitation, estimate hydrological state variables like soil moisture and land surface characteristics, and to estimate fluxes such as evapotranspiration. Today, near-real time monitoring of flood, drought events, and irrigation management are possible with the help of high resolution satellite data. This paper gives a brief overview of the potential applications of remote sensing in water resources.

Black hole formation in fuzzy sphere collapse

We study the collapse of a fuzzy sphere, that is a spherical membrane built out of D0-branes, in the Banks-Fischler-Shenker-Susskind model. At weak coupling, as the sphere shrinks, open strings are produced. If the initial radius is large then open string production is not important and the sphere behaves classically. At intermediate initial radius the backreaction from open string production is important but the fuzzy sphere retains its identity. At small initial radius the sphere collapses to form a black hole. The crossover between the later two regimes is smooth and occurs at the correspondence point of Horowitz and Polchinski.