Novel ingredients from brewers' spent grain - bioactivity in cell culture model systems and bioactivity retention in fortified food products

Functional food ingredients, with scientifically proven and validated bioactive effects, present an effective means of inferring physiological health benefits to consumers to reduce the risk of certain diseases. The search for novel bioactive compounds for incorporation into functional foods is particularly active, with brewers’ spent grain (BSG, a brewing industry co-product) representing a unique source of potentially bioactive compounds. The DNA protective, antioxidant and immunomodulatory effects of phenolic extracts from both pale (P1 - P4) and black (B1 – B4) BSG were examined. Black BSG extracts significantly (P < 0.05) protected against DNA damage induced by hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and extracts with the highest total phenolic content (TPC) protected against 3-morpholinosydnonimine hydrochloride (SIN-1)-induced oxidative DNA damage, measured by the comet assay. Cellular antioxidant activity assays were used to measured antioxidant potential in the U937 cell line. Extracts P1 – P3 and B2 - B4 demonstrated significant (P < 0.05) antioxidant activity, measured by the superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, catalase (CAT) activity and gluatathione (GSH) content assays. Phenolic extracts P2 and P3 from pale BSG possess anti-inflammatory activity measured in concanavalin-A (conA) stimulated Jurkat T cells by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); significantly (P < 0.05) reducing production of interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-4 (IL-4, P2 only), interleukin-10 (IL-10) and interferon-γ (IFN-γ). Black BSG phenolic extracts did not exhibit anti-inflammatory effects in vitro. Hydroxycinnamic acids (HA) have previously been shown to be the phenolic acids present at highest concentration in BSG; therefore the HA profile of the phenolic extracts used in this research, the original barley (before brewing) and whole BSG was characterised and quantified using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The concentration of HA present in the samples was in the order of ferulic acid (FA) > p-coumaric acid (p-CA) derivatives > FA derivatives > p-CA > caffeic acid (CA) > CA derivatives. Results suggested that brewing and roasting decreased the HA content. Protein hydrolysates from BSG were also screened for their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory potential. A total of 34 BSG protein samples were tested. Initial analyses of samples A – J found the protein samples did not exert DNA protective effects (except hydrolysate H) or antioxidant effects by the comet and SOD assays, respectively. Samples D, E, F and J selectively reduced IFN-γ production (P < 0.05) in Jurkat T cells, measured using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Further testing of hydrolysates K – W, including fractionated hydrolysates with molecular weight < 3, < 5 and > 5 kDa, found that higher molecular weight (> 5 kDa) and unfractionated hydrolysates demonstrate greatest anti-inflammatory effects, while fractionated hydrolysates were also shown to have antioxidant activity, by the SOD activity assay. A commercially available yogurt drink (Actimel) and snack-bar and chocolate-drink formulations were fortified with the most bioactive phenolic and protein samples – P2, B2, W, W < 3 kDa, W < 5 kDa, W > 5 kDa. All fortified foods were subjected to a simulated gastrointestinal in vitro digestion procedure and bioactivity retention in the digestates was determined using the comet and ELISA assays. Yogurt fortified with B2 digestate significantly (P < 0.05) protected against H2O2-induced DNA damage in Caco-2 cells. Greatest immunomodulatory activity was demonstrated by the snack-bar formulation, significantly (P < 0.05) reducing IFN-γ production in con-A stimulated Jurkat T cells. Hydrolysate W significantly (P < 0.05) increased the IFN-γ reducing capacity of the snack-bar. Addition of fractionated hydrolysate W < 3 kDa and W < 5 kDa to yogurt also reduced IL-2 production to a greater extent than the unfortified yogurt (P < 0.05).

Alcohol income and health: a complicated but desirable mix

The aim of this thesis is to examine if a difference exists in income for different categories of drinkers in Ireland using the 2007 Slán data set. The possible impact of alcohol consumption on health status and health care utilisation is also examined. Potential endogeneity and selection bias is accounted for throughout. Endogeneity is where an independent variable included in the model is determined within the context of the model (Chenhall and Moers, 2007). An endogenous relationship between income and alcohol and between health and alcohol is accounted for by the use of separate income equations and separate health status equations for each category of drinker similar to what was done in previous studies into the effects of alcohol on earnings (Hamilton and Hamilton, 1997; Barrett, 2002). Sample selection bias arises when a sector selection is non-random due to individuals choosing a particular sector because of their personal characteristics (Heckman, 1979; Zhang, 2004). In relation to alcohol consumption, selection bias may arise as people may select into a particular drinker group due to the fact that they know that by doing so it will not have a negative effect on their income or health (Hamilton and Hamilton, 1997; Di Pietro and Pedace, 2008; Barrett, 2002). Selection bias of alcohol consumption is accounted for by using the Multinomial Logit OLS Two Step Estimate as proposed by Lee (1982), which is an extension of the Heckman Probit OLS Two Step Estimate. Alcohol status as an ordered variable is examined and possible methods of estimation accounting for this ordinality while also accounting for selection bias are looked at. Limited Information Methods and Full Information Methods of estimation of simultaneous equations are assessed and compared. Findings show that in Ireland moderate drinkers have a higher income compared with abstainers or heavy drinkers. Some studies such as Barrett (2002) argue that this is as a consequence of alcohol improving ones health, which in turn can influence ones productivity which may ultimately be reflected in earnings, due to the fact that previous studies have found that moderate levels of alcohol consumption are beneficial towards ones health status. This study goes on to examine the relationship between health status and alcohol consumption and whether the correlation between income and the consumption of alcohol is similar in terms of sign and magnitude to the correlation between health status and the consumption of alcohol. Results indicate that moderate drinkers have a higher income than non or heavy drinkers, with the weekly household income of moderate drinkers being €660.10, non drinkers being €546.75 and heavy drinkers being €449.99. Moderate Drinkers also report having a better health status than non drinkers and a slightly better health status than heavy drinkers. More non-drinkers report poor health than either moderate or heavy drinkers. As part of the analysis into the effect of alcohol consumption on income and on health status, the relationship between other socio economic variables such as gender, age, education among others, with income, health and alcohol status is examined.

Broadening public input into science policy decision making: can the democratic model for science communication influence scientific, innovation and technological trajectories?

This PhD thesis investigates the potential use of science communication models to engage a broader swathe of actors in decision making in relation to scientific and technological innovation in order to address possible democratic deficits in science and technology policy-making. A four-pronged research approach has been employed to examine different representations of the public(s) and different modes of engagement. The first case study investigates whether patient-groups could represent an alternative needs-driven approach to biomedical and health sciences R & D. This is followed by enquiry into the potential for Science Shops to represent a bottom-up approach to promote research and development of local relevance. The barriers and opportunities for the involvement of scientific researchers in science communication are next investigated via a national survey which is comparable to a similar survey conducted in the UK. The final case study investigates to what extent opposition or support regarding nanotechnology (as an emerging technology) is reflected amongst the YouTube user community and the findings are considered in the context of how support or opposition to new or emerging technologies can be addressed using conflict resolution based approaches to manage potential conflict trajectories. The research indicates that the majority of communication exercises of relevance to science policy and planning take the form of a one-way flow of information with little or no facility for public feedback. This thesis proposes that a more bottom-up approach to research and technology would help broaden acceptability and accountability for decisions made relating to new or existing technological trajectories. This approach could be better integrated with and complementary to government, institutional, e.g. university, and research funding agencies activities and help ensure that public needs and issues are better addressed directly by the research community. Such approaches could also facilitate empowerment of societal stakeholders regarding scientific literacy and agenda-setting. One-way information relays could be adapted to facilitate feedback from representative groups e.g. Non-governmental organisations or Civil Society Organisations (such as patient groups) in order to enhance the functioning and socio-economic relevance of knowledge-based societies to the betterment of human livelihoods.

Immune and stress factors in the pathophysiology of the mdx mouse model of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) is a fatal multi-system neuromuscular disease caused by loss of dystrophin. The loss of dystrophin from membranes of contractile muscle cells and the dysregulation of the DAPC, induces chronic inflammation due to tissue necrosis and eventual replacement with collagen which weakens muscular force and strength. Dystrophin deficiency may cause under-diagnosed features of DMD include mood disorders such as depression and anxiety and dysfunction of the gastrointestinal tract. The first study in the thesis examined mood in the dystrophin-deficient mdx mouse model of DMD and examined the effects of the tri-cyclic antidepressant, amitriptyline on behaviours. Amitriptyline had anti-depressant and anxiolytic effects in the mdx mice possibly through effects on stress factors such as corticotrophin-releasing factor (CRF). This antidepressant also reduced skeletal muscle inflammation and caused a reduction in circulating interleukin (IL)-6 levels. In the second and third studies, we specifically blocked IL-6 signalling and used Urocortin 2, CRFR2 agonist to investigate their potential as therapeutic targets in mdx mice pathophysiology. Isometric and isotonic contractile properties of the diaphragm, were compared in mdx mice treated with anti IL-6 receptor antibodies (anti IL-6R) and/or Urocortin 2. Deficits in force production, work and power detected in mdx mice were improved with treatment. In study three I investigated contractile properties in gastrointestinal smooth muscle. As compared to wild type mice, mdx mice had slower faecal transit times, shorter colons with thickened muscle layers and increased contractile activity in response to recombinant IL-6. Blocking IL-6 signalling resulted in an increase in colon length, normalised faecal output times and a reduction in IL-6-evoked contractile activity. The findings from these studies indicate that for both diaphragm and gastrointestinal function in a dystrophin-deficient model, targeting of IL-6 and CRFR2 signalling has beneficial therapeutic effects.

Baseline health-related quality-of-life data as prognostic factors in a phase III multicentre study of women with metastatic breast cancer.

The potential value of baseline health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) and clinical factors in predicting prognosis was examined using data from an international randomised phase III trial which compared doxorubicin and paclitaxel with doxorubicin and cylophosphamide as first line chemotherapy in 275 women with metastatic breast cancer. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 and the related breast module (QLQ-BR23) were used to assess baseline HRQOL data. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used for both univariate and multivariate analyses of survival. In the univariate analyses, performance status (P<0.001) and number of sites involved (P=0.001) were the most important clinical prognostic factors. The HRQOL variables at baseline most strongly associated with longer survival were better appetite, physical and role functioning, as well as less fatigue (P<0.001). The final multivariate model retained performance status (P<0.001) and appetite loss (P=0.005) as the variables best predicting survival. Substantial loss of appetite was the only independent HRQOL factor predicting poor survival and was strongly correlated (/r/>0.5) with fatigue, role and physical functioning. In addition to known clinical factors, appetite loss appears to be a significant prognostic factor for survival in women with metastatic breast cancer. However, the mechanism underlying this association remains to be precisely defined in future studies.

Gait and behavior in an IL1β-mediated model of rat knee arthritis and effects of an IL1 antagonist.

Interleukin-1 beta (IL1β) is a proinflammatory cytokine that mediates arthritic pathologies. Our objectives were to evaluate pain and limb dysfunction resulting from IL1β over-expression in the rat knee and to investigate the ability of local IL1 receptor antagonist (IL1Ra) delivery to reverse-associated pathology. IL1β over-expression was induced in the right knees of 30 Wistar rats via intra-articular injection of rat fibroblasts retrovirally infected with human IL1β cDNA. A subset of animals received a 30 µl intra-articular injection of saline or human IL1Ra on day 1 after cell delivery (0.65 µg/µl hIL1Ra, n = 7 per group). Joint swelling, gait, and sensitivity were investigated over 1 week. On day 8, animals were sacrificed and joints were collected for histological evaluation. Joint inflammation and elevated levels of endogenous IL1β were observed in knees receiving IL1β-infected fibroblasts. Asymmetric gaits favoring the affected limb and heightened mechanical sensitivity (allodynia) reflected a unilateral pathology. Histopathology revealed cartilage loss on the femoral groove and condyle of affected joints. Intra-articular IL1Ra injection failed to restore gait and sensitivity to preoperative levels and did not reduce cartilage degeneration observed in histopathology. Joint swelling and degeneration subsequent to IL1β over-expression is associated limb hypersensitivity and gait compensation. Intra-articular IL1Ra delivery did not result in marked improvement for this model; this may be driven by rapid clearance of administered IL1Ra from the joint space. These results motivate work to further investigate the behavioral consequences of monoarticular arthritis and sustained release drug delivery strategies for the joint space.

The impact of shame on health-related quality of life among HIV-positive adults with a history of childhood sexual abuse.

Childhood sexual abuse is prevalent among people living with HIV, and the experience of shame is a common consequence of childhood sexual abuse and HIV infection. This study examined the role of shame in health-related quality of life among HIV-positive adults who have experienced childhood sexual abuse. Data from 247 HIV-infected adults with a history of childhood sexual abuse were analyzed. Hierarchical linear regression was conducted to assess the impact of shame regarding both sexual abuse and HIV infection, while controlling for demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors. In bivariate analyses, shame regarding sexual abuse and HIV infection were each negatively associated with health-related quality of life and its components (physical well-being, function and global well-being, emotional and social well-being, and cognitive functioning). After controlling for demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors, HIV-related, but not sexual abuse-related, shame remained a significant predictor of reduced health-related quality of life, explaining up to 10% of the variance in multivariable models for overall health-related quality of life, emotional, function and global, and social well-being and cognitive functioning over and above that of other variables entered into the model. Additionally, HIV symptoms, perceived stress, and perceived availability of social support were associated with health-related quality of life in multivariable models. Shame is an important and modifiable predictor of health-related quality of life in HIV-positive populations, and medical and mental health providers serving HIV-infected populations should be aware of the importance of shame and its impact on the well-being of their patients.

Serotonin synthesis, release and reuptake in terminals: a mathematical model.

BACKGROUND: Serotonin is a neurotransmitter that has been linked to a wide variety of behaviors including feeding and body-weight regulation, social hierarchies, aggression and suicidality, obsessive compulsive disorder, alcoholism, anxiety, and affective disorders. Full understanding of serotonergic systems in the central nervous system involves genomics, neurochemistry, electrophysiology, and behavior. Though associations have been found between functions at these different levels, in most cases the causal mechanisms are unknown. The scientific issues are daunting but important for human health because of the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and other pharmacological agents to treat disorders in the serotonergic signaling system. METHODS: We construct a mathematical model of serotonin synthesis, release, and reuptake in a single serotonergic neuron terminal. The model includes the effects of autoreceptors, the transport of tryptophan into the terminal, and the metabolism of serotonin, as well as the dependence of release on the firing rate. The model is based on real physiology determined experimentally and is compared to experimental data. RESULTS: We compare the variations in serotonin and dopamine synthesis due to meals and find that dopamine synthesis is insensitive to the availability of tyrosine but serotonin synthesis is sensitive to the availability of tryptophan. We conduct in silico experiments on the clearance of extracellular serotonin, normally and in the presence of fluoxetine, and compare to experimental data. We study the effects of various polymorphisms in the genes for the serotonin transporter and for tryptophan hydroxylase on synthesis, release, and reuptake. We find that, because of the homeostatic feedback mechanisms of the autoreceptors, the polymorphisms have smaller effects than one expects. We compute the expected steady concentrations of serotonin transporter knockout mice and compare to experimental data. Finally, we study how the properties of the the serotonin transporter and the autoreceptors give rise to the time courses of extracellular serotonin in various projection regions after a dose of fluoxetine. CONCLUSIONS: Serotonergic systems must respond robustly to important biological signals, while at the same time maintaining homeostasis in the face of normal biological fluctuations in inputs, expression levels, and firing rates. This is accomplished through the cooperative effect of many different homeostatic mechanisms including special properties of the serotonin transporters and the serotonin autoreceptors. Many difficult questions remain in order to fully understand how serotonin biochemistry affects serotonin electrophysiology and vice versa, and how both are changed in the presence of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Mathematical models are useful tools for investigating some of these questions.

Incorporating grape seed antioxidants into a functional food model

Gemstone Team IMMUNE (Innovative Medicines for Maladies Utilizing Nutraceutical Enhancements)

Explanatory Model for the Use of Traditional Medicines in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Introduction: Traditional medicines are one of the most important means of achieving total health care coverage globally, and their importance in Tanzania extends beyond the impoverished rural areas. Their use remains high even in urban settings among the educated middle and upper classes. They are a critical component healthcare in Tanzania, but they also can have harmful side effects. Therefore we sought to understand the decision-making and reasoning processes by building an explanatory model for the use of traditional medicines in Tanzania.

Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study between December 2013 and June 2014 in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. Using purposive sampling methods, we conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) and in-depth interviews of key informants, and the qualitative data were analyzed using an inductive Framework Method. A structured survey was created, piloted, and then administered it to a random sample of adults. We reported upon the reliability and validity of the structured survey, and we used triangulation from multiple sources to synthesize the qualitative and quantitative data.

Results: A total of five FGDs composed of 59 participants and 27 in-depth interviews were conducted in total. 16 of the in-depth interviews were with self-described traditional practitioners or herbal vendors. We identified five major thematic categories that relate to the decision to use traditional medicines in Kilimanjaro: healthcare delivery, disease understanding, credibility of the traditional practices, health status, and strong cultural beliefs.

A total of 473 participants (24.1% male) completed the structured survey. The most common reasons for taking traditional medicines were that they are more affordable (14%, 12.0-16.0), failure of hospital medicines (13%, 11.1-15.0), they work better (12%, 10.7-14.4), they are easier

to obtain (11%, 9.48-13.1), they are found naturally or free (8%, 6.56-9.68), hospital medicines have too many chemical (8%, 6.33-9.40), and they have fewer side effects (8%, 6.25-9.30). The most common uses of traditional medicines were for symptomatic conditions (42%), chronic diseases (14%), reproductive problems (11%), and malaria and febrile illnesses (10%). Participants currently taking hospital medicines for chronic conditions were nearly twice as likely to report traditional medicines usage in the past year (RR 1.97, p=0.05).

Conclusions: We built broad explanatory model for the use of traditional medicines in Kilimanjaro. The use of traditional medicines is not limited to rural or low socioeconomic populations and concurrent use of traditional medicines and biomedicine is high with frequent ethnomedical doctor shopping. Our model provides a working framework for understanding the complex interactions between biomedicine and traditional medicine. Future disease management and treatment programs will benefit from this understanding, and it can lead to synergistic policies with more effective implementation.

Patient beliefs and behaviors about genomic risk for type 2 diabetes: Implications for prevention

Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2015.Type 2 diabetes is a major health burden in the United States, and population trends suggest this burden will increase. High interest in, and increased availability of, testing for genetic risk of type 2 diabetes presents a new opportunity for reducing type 2 diabetes risk for many patients; however, to date, there is little evidence that genetic testing positively affects type 2 diabetes prevention. Genetic information may not fit patients illness representations, which may reduce the chances of risk-reducing behavior changes. The present study aimed to examine illness representations in a clinical sample who are at risk for type 2 diabetes and interested in genetic testing. The authors used the Common Sense Model to analyze survey responses of 409 patients with type 2 diabetes risk factors. Patients were interested in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes risk and believed in its importance. Most patients believed that genetic factors are important to developing type 2 diabetes (67%), that diet and exercise are effective in preventing type 2 diabetes (95%), and that lifestyle changes are more effective than drugs (86%). Belief in genetic causality was not related to poorer self-reported health behaviors. These results suggest that patients interest in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes might produce a teachable moment that clinicians can use to counsel behavior change.

The IGNITE network: a model for genomic medicine implementation and research.

BACKGROUND: Patients, clinicians, researchers and payers are seeking to understand the value of using genomic information (as reflected by genotyping, sequencing, family history or other data) to inform clinical decision-making. However, challenges exist to widespread clinical implementation of genomic medicine, a prerequisite for developing evidence of its real-world utility. METHODS: To address these challenges, the National Institutes of Health-funded IGNITE (Implementing GeNomics In pracTicE; www.ignite-genomics.org ) Network, comprised of six projects and a coordinating center, was established in 2013 to support the development, investigation and dissemination of genomic medicine practice models that seamlessly integrate genomic data into the electronic health record and that deploy tools for point of care decision making. IGNITE site projects are aligned in their purpose of testing these models, but individual projects vary in scope and design, including exploring genetic markers for disease risk prediction and prevention, developing tools for using family history data, incorporating pharmacogenomic data into clinical care, refining disease diagnosis using sequence-based mutation discovery, and creating novel educational approaches. RESULTS: This paper describes the IGNITE Network and member projects, including network structure, collaborative initiatives, clinical decision support strategies, methods for return of genomic test results, and educational initiatives for patients and providers. Clinical and outcomes data from individual sites and network-wide projects are anticipated to begin being published over the next few years. CONCLUSIONS: The IGNITE Network is an innovative series of projects and pilot demonstrations aiming to enhance translation of validated actionable genomic information into clinical settings and develop and use measures of outcome in response to genome-based clinical interventions using a pragmatic framework to provide early data and proofs of concept on the utility of these interventions. Through these efforts and collaboration with other stakeholders, IGNITE is poised to have a significant impact on the acceleration of genomic information into medical practice.

Trade unions, civil society organisations and health reforms

This article provides an analysis of resistance to neoliberalism and commodification in the public healthcare sector as seen from a trade union perspective. It uses recent research on social-movement unionism and new labour internationalism to structure a series of case studies examining resistance to different dimensions of healthcare commodification in four countries. The range of alliances trade unions are making do not fit tidily into one model, but give insights into the movement elements of trade unionism. This dimension must be strengthened, but can also be in tension with collective bargaining and other institutional processes. How to constantly reconcile these different positions is the future challenge facing trade unions.

Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.