Solving the coastal eutrophication problem by large scale seaweed cultivation

Eutrophication is becoming a serious problem in coastal waters in many parts of the world. It induces the phytoplankton blooms including 'Red Tides', followed by heavy economic losses to extensive aquaculture area. Some cultivated seaweeds have very high productivity and could absorb large quantities of N, P, CO2, produce large amount of O-2 and have excellent effect on decreasing eutrophication. The author believes that seaweed cultivation in large scale should be a good solution to the eutrophication problem in coastal waters. To put this idea into practice, four conditions should be fulfilled: (a) Large-scale cultivation could be conducted within the region experiencing eutrophication. (b) Fundamental scientific and technological problems for cultivation should have been solved. (c) Cultivation should not impose any harmful ecological effects. (d) Cultivation must be economically feasible and profitable. In northern China, large-scale cultivation of Laminaria japonica Aresch. has been encouraged for years to balance the negative effects from scallop cultivation. Preliminary research in recent years has shown that Gracilaria lemaneiformis (Bory) Daws. and Porphyra haitanensis Chang et Zheng are the two best candidates for this purpose along the Chinese southeast to southern coast from Fujian to Guangdong, Guangxi and Hong Kong. Gracilaria tenuistipitata var. liui Chang et Xia is promising for use in pond culture condition with shrimps and fish.

香港近海水体光学特性分析及色素浓度反演模式研究

香港近海大约1800平方公里，海岸带水体与旅游娱乐、水产养殖、工业用冷却水源、废水排放以及航运等密切相关。香港近海水体成分复杂，海域东部为半封闭海湾，叶绿素浓度较高，较易发生赤潮；海域西部属于河口环境，是珠江入海区域。由于水体光学特性受多种因素影响，了解海域水质特征并发展适合于海域的生物光学算法，对香港近海水质生态环境保护及海域的综合开发利用是非常必要的。针对本研究海域，本文主要进行水体光学特性分析及色素浓度反演模式研究，希望对水下光学分析及反演算法发展有所贡献。 根据2001年3月－5月在香港临近海域现场调查取得的实测资料，本文对该海域水体吸收光谱进行分析，讨论了总悬浮物浓度TSM，叶绿素a浓度与总颗粒物吸收光谱、浮游植物色素吸收光谱及非色素颗粒吸收光谱之间的系列关系；开发了该海域叶绿素a浓度与色素吸收系数aph(λ)的经验模型，且具有良好的相关性；拟合出黄色物质和非色素颗粒吸收光谱斜率经验值，经验证效果良好。 此外，本文分别用剖面数据外推方法及水体光谱模拟方法完成对水下表面遥感反射率光谱的推导。将外推结果与模拟结果进行比较，模拟光谱效果较好，但在绝对数量值上模拟值较外推值稍低。 水体组分反演模式方面，本文建立了反演低浓度区域叶绿素a浓度的半分析算法，在研究区域反演结果与实测值相比平均相对误差约在45%以内；利用Lee提出的准分析算法模式进行水体总悬浮物吸收系数的反演试验，试验结果与实测值相比有较大误差，误差主要来源于缺少实测散射数据，难以得到适合该海区的散射模型；最后对OC2和OC4经验算法在该海域进行验证，由于有限的数据集，还难以将算法区域化。

Potential P limitation leads to excess N in the pearl river estuarine coastal plume

There is excess nitrate (NO3) in the Pearl River coastal plume in the southern waters of Hong Kong in summer. We hypothesize that phosphorus (P) limitation controls the utilization of excess NO3 due to the high N:P ratio in the Pearl River. To test this hypothesis, we conducted two 1-day cruises on July 13 and 19, 2000 to examine the response of the phytoplankton to P additions with respect to changes in biomass, uptake of nutrients and nutrient uptake ratios using a batch incubation of natural water samples collected from the Pearl River estuary and adjacent coastal waters. At a station (E1, salinity =5) in the Pearl River estuary, the N/P ratio at the surface was 46:1, (64 muM DIN: 1.3 muM PO4) and decreased to 24:1 (12 muM DIN: 0.5 muM PO4) downstream at a station (Stn 26, salinity =26) in the coastal plume south of Hong Kong. Without a P addition, NO3 in the water samples collected at E1 could not be depleted during a 9 day incubation (similar to20 muM NO3 remaining). With a P addition, NO3 disappeared completely on day 6 with the depletion of the added PO4 (2-3 muM). This was also true for a station, E4 (salinity= 15) further downstream, but within the estuary. At Stn 26, in the coastal plume south of Hong Kong, NO3 (similar to11.5 muM) was eventually depleted without the addition of PO4, but it took 8 days instead of 5 days for Stn E4. The uptake ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to PO4, without a P addition was 51:1, 43:1 and 46:1 for Stns E1, E4 and 26, respectively. With a P addition, the DIN/PO4 uptake ratio decreased to 20:1, 14:1 and 12:1, respectively, for the 3 stations. These results clearly indicate potential P limitation to utilization of NO3 in the Pearl River estuary, resulting in excess NO3 in waters of the coastal plume downstream of the estuary, some of which would eventually be transported offshore. High uptake ratios of N:P without a P addition (43N:1P) suggest that phytoplankton have a nitrogen uptake capacity in excess of the Redfield ratio of 16N: 1P by 2.5-3 times. The value of 2.5-3 times was likely a maximum that should have contained a contribution of P released from desorption of P from sediments or from regeneration by zooplankton grazing and bacterial activity during the incubation of natural water samples. Without a P addition, however, phytoplankton biomass did not increase. This means that P turnover rates or regeneration may allow phytoplankton to take up additional N in excess of the Redfield ratio and store it, but without increasing the algal biomass. Therefore, high ambient N:P ratios in excess of the Redfield ratio do indicate potential P limitation to phytoplankton biomass in this estuarine coastal ecosystem. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A recent shellfish toxin investigation in China

A shellfish toxin investigation along the Chinese coast has recently been conducted using both HPLC and mouse assay methods. The results showed that DSP was widely distributed in different shellfish species in China. 26 out of 89 samples had DTX1 (dinophysistoxin-1) or OA (okadaic acid) but the DSP content in most shellfish samples did not reach the regulatory limit for human consumption adopted in many countries (20 mu g/100 g soft tissue). PSP was also found in 5 out of 96 samples along the coast. One sample, Chlamys nobilis from Hong Kong contained high levels of PSP (320 mu g STX equivalent/100 g soft tissue), compared to the regulatory limit (80 mu g STX equivalent/100 g soft tissue). After the recent outbreak of red tide in Hong Kong waters, three further shellfish samples were collected within 40 days to investigate the impacts of this event, It was shown that high levels of PSP continued to exist in Hong Kong waters. This report provides the first report of DSP and PSP distribution along the Chinese coast. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved.

Is inorganic nutrient enrichment a driving force for the formation of red tides? A case study of the dinoflagellate Scrippsiella trochoidea in an embayment

Red tides (high biomass phytoplankton blooms) have frequently occurred in Hong Kong waters, but most red tides occurred in waters which are not very eutrophic. For example, Port Shelter, a semi-enclosed bay in the northeast of Hong Kong, is one of hot spots for red tides. Concentrations of ambient inorganic nutrients (e.g. N, P), are not high enough to form the high biomass of chlorophyll a (chl a) in a red tide when chl a is converted to its particulate organic nutrient (N) (which should equal the inorganic nutrient, N). When a red tide of the dinoflagellate Scrippsiella trochoidea occurred in the bay, we found that the red tide patch along the shore had a high cell density of 15,000 cells ml(-1), and high chl a (56 mu g l(-1)), and pH reached 8.6 at the surface (8.2 at the bottom), indicating active photosynthesis in situ. Ambient inorganic nutrients (NO3, PO4, SiO4, and NH4) were all low in the waters and deep waters surrounding the red tide patch, suggesting that the nutrients were not high enough to support the high chl a >50 mu g l(-1) in the red tide. Nutrient addition experiments showed that the addition of all of the inorganic nutrients to a non-red-tide water sample containing low concentrations of Scrippsiella trochoidea did not produce cell density of Scrippsiella trochoidea as high as in the red tide patch, suggesting that nutrients were not an initializing factor for this red tide. During the incubation of the red tide water sample without any nutrient addition, the phytoplankton biomass decreased gradually over 9 days. However, with a N addition, the phytoplankton biomass increased steadily until day 7, which suggested that nitrogen addition was able to sustain the high biomass of the red tide for a week with and without nutrients. In contrast, the red tide in the bay disappeared on the sampling day when the wind direction changed. These results indicated that initiation, maintenance and disappearance of the dinoflagellate Scrippsiella trochoidea red tide in the bay were not directly driven by changes in nutrients. Therefore, how nutrients are linked to the formation of red tides in coastal waters need to be further examined, particularly in relation to dissolved organic nutrients. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Bopyridae (Crustacea: Isopoda) parasitic on thalassinideans (Crustacea: Decapoda) from China

Eight species among six genera of bopyrid isopods (representing the subfamilies Pseudionmae and loninae) infesting thalassinideans from China are reported. Of these, four species are new to science: Gyge.fujianensis n. sp., Progebiophilits elongatus n. sp., Upogebione bidigitatus n. sp., and Procepon liuruiyui n. sp., infesting Upogebia major (de Haan), Nihonotrypaea japonica Ortmann, Upogebia carinicauda (Stimpson), and Austinogebia wuhsienweni (Yu). One species, lone cornuta Bate, 1864, is recorded for the first time from Chinese waters and from a new host. Pseudione longicauda Shiino, 1937, Gyge ovalis (Shiino, 1939), and Progebiophilus sinicus Markham, 1982, previously known from Hong Kong or Taiwan, are recorded for the first time from mainland China, extending their range north.

Classification of jinjiang oysters Crassostrea rivularis (Gould, 1861) from China, based on morphology and phylogenetic analysis

The jinjiang oyster Crassostrea rivularis [Gould, 1861. Descriptions of Shells collected in the North Pacific Exploring Expedition under Captains Ringgold and Rodgers. Proc. Boston Soc. Nat. Hist. 8 (April) 33-40] is one of the most important and best-known oysters in China. Based on the color of its flesh, two forms of C rivularis are recognized and referred to as the "white meat" and 11 red meat" oysters. The classification of white and red forms of this species has been a subject of confusion and debate in China. To clarify the taxonomic status of the two forms of C. rivularis, we collected and analyzed oysters from five locations along China's coast using both morphological characters and DNA sequences from mitochondrial 16S rRNA and cytochrome oxidase 1, and the nuclear 28S rRNA genes. Oysters were classified as white or red forms according to their morphological characteristics and then subjected to DNA sequencing. Both morphological and DNA sequence data suggest that the red and white oysters are two separate species. Phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences obtained in this study and existing sequences of reference species show that the red oyster is the same species as C. ariakensis Wakiya [1929. Japanese food oysters. Jpn. J. Zool. 2, 359-367.], albeit the red oysters from north and south China are genetically distinctive. The white oyster is the same species as a newly described species from Hong Kong, C. hongkongensis Lam and Morton [2003. Mitochondrial DNA and identification of a new species of Crassostrea (Bivalvia: Ostreidae) cultured for centuries in the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong, China. Aqua. 228, 1-13]. Although the name C. rivularis has seniority over C. ariakensis and C. hongkongensis, the original description of Ostrea rivularis by Gould [1861] does not fit shell characteristics of either the red or the white oysters. We propose that the name of C. rivularis Gould [1861] should be suspended, the red oyster should take the name C. ariakensis, and the white oyster should take the name C. hongkongensis. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

滑坡泥石流信息遥感获取与空间预测

On the issue of geological hazard evaluation（GHE）, taking remote sensing and GIS systems as experimental environment, assisting with some programming development, this thesis combines multi-knowledges of geo-hazard mechanism, statistic learning, remote sensing (RS), high-spectral recognition, spatial analysis, digital photogrammetry as well as mineralogy, and selects geo-hazard samples from Hong Kong and Three Parallel River region as experimental data, to study two kinds of core questions of GHE, geo-hazard information acquiring and evaluation model. In the aspect of landslide information acquiring by RS, three detailed topics are presented, image enhance for visual interpretation, automatic recognition of landslide as well as quantitative mineral mapping. As to the evaluation model, the latest and powerful data mining method, support vector machine (SVM), is introduced to GHE field, and a serious of comparing experiments are carried out to verify its feasibility and efficiency. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method to forecast the distribution of landslides if rainfall in future is known baseing on historical rainfall and corresponding landslide susceptibility map. The details are as following: (a) Remote sensing image enhancing methods for geo-hazard visual interpretation. The effect of visual interpretation is determined by RS data and image enhancing method, for which the most effective and regular technique is image merge between high-spatial image and multi-spectral image, but there are few researches concerning the merging methods of geo-hazard recognition. By the comparing experimental of six mainstream merging methods and combination of different remote sensing data source, this thesis presents merits of each method ,and qualitatively analyzes the effect of spatial resolution, spectral resolution and time phase on merging image. (b) Automatic recognition of shallow landslide by RS image. The inventory of landslide is the base of landslide forecast and landslide study. If persistent collecting of landslide events, updating the geo-hazard inventory in time, and promoting prediction model incessantly, the accuracy of forecast would be boosted step by step. RS technique is a feasible method to obtain landslide information, which is determined by the feature of geo-hazard distribution. An automatic hierarchical approach is proposed to identify shallow landslides in vegetable region by the combination of multi-spectral RS imagery and DEM derivatives, and the experiment is also drilled to inspect its efficiency. (c) Hazard-causing factors obtaining. Accurate environmental factors are the key to analyze and predict the risk of regional geological hazard. As to predict huge debris flow, the main challenge is still to determine the startup material and its volume in debris flow source region. Exerting the merits of various RS technique, this thesis presents the methods to obtain two important hazard-causing factors, DEM and alteration mineral, and through spatial analysis, finds the relationship between hydrothermal clay alteration minerals and geo-hazards in the arid-hot valleys of Three Parallel Rivers region. (d) Applying support vector machine (SVM) to landslide susceptibility mapping. Introduce the latest and powerful statistical learning theory, SVM, to RGHE. SVM that proved an efficient statistic learning method can deal with two-class and one-class samples, with feature avoiding produce ‘pseudo’ samples. 55 years historical samples in a natural terrain of Hong Kong are used to assess this method, whose susceptibility maps obtained by one-class SVM and two-class SVM are compared to that obtained by logistic regression method. It can conclude that two-class SVM possesses better prediction efficiency than logistic regression and one-class SVM. However, one-class SVM, only requires failed cases, has an advantage over the other two methods as only "failed" case information is usually available in landslide susceptibility mapping. (e) Predicting the distribution of rainfall-induced landslides by time-series analysis. Rainfall is the most dominating factor to bring in landslides. More than 90% losing and casualty by landslides is introduced by rainfall, so predicting landslide sites under certain rainfall is an important geological evaluating issue. With full considering the contribution of stable factors (landslide susceptibility map) and dynamic factors (rainfall), the time-series linear regression analysis between rainfall and landslide risk mapis presented, and experiments based on true samples prove that this method is perfect in natural region of Hong Kong. The following 4 practicable or original findings are obtained: 1) The RS ways to enhance geo-hazards image, automatic recognize shallow landslides, obtain DEM and mineral are studied, and the detailed operating steps are given through examples. The conclusion is practical strongly. 2) The explorative researching about relationship between geo-hazards and alteration mineral in arid-hot valley of Jinshajiang river is presented. Based on standard USGS mineral spectrum, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration mineral is mapped by SAM method. Through statistic analysis between debris flows and hazard-causing factors, the strong correlation between debris flows and clay minerals is found and validated. 3) Applying SVM theory (especially one-class SVM theory) to the landslide susceptibility mapping and system evaluation for its performance is also carried out, which proves that advantages of SVM in this field. 4) Establishing time-serial prediction method for rainfall induced landslide distribution. In a natural study area, the distribution of landslides induced by a storm is predicted successfully under a real maximum 24h rainfall based on the regression between 4 historical storms and corresponding landslides.

释光测年实验室的建立与沉积物释光测年技术研究

The main research projects reported in this paper are the establishment of a luminescence (OSL/TL) dating laboratory in The Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS, and studies on OSL dating technique and protocol of sediments from North China. These projects have been suggested in order to fit in with the needs of research developments in environmental changes, in particular the aridity and desertification in North China. A new luminescence dating laboratory in which there are a Rise TL/OSL-DA-15B/C reader with Sr-90 beta source, a set of Little More Tape 9022 alpha and beta irradiators, three set of Daybreak 583 intelligent alpha counters and sample preparation system has been set up in the Institute in June 2001. The courses of the establishment of a new laboratory involved a series of technical works, besides making a suitable choice of the equipment, as follows: installing and testing TL/OSL reader, calibrating the dose rate of the beta and alpha sources in the irradiators with the standard sources, testing and calibrating the count rates of the thick source alpha counting in the alpha counters with a standard sample, and then dating of the know age samples to check and examine the OSL/TL dating system. All data obtained from above calibrations and tests show that the established OSL/TL system, including the used equipment in it, can be used to determine age of the geological and archaeological samples with an error of equivalent dose (De) of less than 5%. The OSL dates of several sediment samples obtained from the system are good agreement with those from the OSL dating laboratory in Hong Kong University and ~(14)C dates within 1 - 2 standard deviations. The studies on OSL dating technique and protocol of sediment samples being in progress involve the De determinations with single aliquot regeneration (SAR) (Murray and Wintle, 2000) of the coarse grain quartz from sand dune samples and comparison of the De determinations obtained from SAR with those measured by using multiple aliquot regeneration of loess fine grains. The preliminary results from these research works are shown as follows. The very low natural equivalent dose (De) of about 0.012 - 0.03 Gy, corresponding age of less than 10 years, for BLSL (blue light stimulated luminescence) of the coarse grain quartz from modern sand dune samples in Horqin sand fields has been determined with both the SAR and multiple aliquot regeneration (MAR) techniques. This imply that the BLSL signal zeroing of the quartz could be reached before burying of the sand in Horqin sand fields. The De values and ages of the coarse grain quartz measured with SAR protocol are in good agreement with those obtained from multiple aliquot technique for the modern sand dune samples, but the errors of De from the MAR is greater than those from the SAR. This may imply that the higher precision of age determination for younger sand dune samples could be achieved with the SAR of coarse grain quartz. The MAR combining with "Australian Slide method" may be a perfect choice for De measurements of loess fine grain samples on the basis of analysis of De values obtained from the SAR and from the MAR. The former can be employed to obtain a reliable age estimate of loess sample as older as approximately SO ka BR There is a great difference between De determinations from the (post-IR) OSL of the SAR (Roberts and Wintle, 2001) and those from independent or expected estimates for the older samples. However, the age estimates obtained from the (post-IR) OSL of the SAR are mostly closed to the independent age determinations for the younger (age less than 10 ka) fine grain samples. It may be suggested that the (post-IR) OSL of the SAR protocol of the fine grain fraction would be a suitable choice to dating of the younger samples, but may be unsuitable for the older samples.

花岗岩风化土微观结构及其工程地质特性研究

Saprolite is the residual soil resulted from completely weathered or highly weathered granite and with corestones of parent rock. It is widely distributed in Hong Kong. Slope instability usually happens in this layer of residual soil and thus it is very important to study the engineering geological properties of Saprolite. Due to the relic granitic texture, the deformation and strength characteristics of Saprolite are very different from normal residual soils. In order to investigate the effects of the special microstructure on soil deformation and strength, a series of physical, chemical and mechanical tests were conducted on Saprolite at Kowloon, Hong Kong. The tests include chemical analysis, particle size analysis, mineral composition analysis, mercury injection, consolidation test, direct shear test, triaxial shear test, optical analysis, SEM & TEM analysis, and triaxial shear tests under real-time CT monitoring.Based on the testing results, intensity and degree of weathering were classified, factors affecting and controlling the deformation and strength of Saprolite were identified, and the interaction between those factors were analyzed.The major parameters describing soil microstructure were introduced mainly based on optical thin section analysis results. These parameters are of importance and physical meaning to describe particle shape, particle size distribution (PSD), and for numerical modeling of soil microstructure. A few parameters to depict particle geometry were proposed or improved. These parameters can be used to regenerate the particle shape and its distribution. Fractal dimension of particle shape was proposed to describe irregularity of particle shapes and capacity of space filling quantitatively. And the effect of fractal dimension of particle shape on soil strength was analyzed. At the same time, structural coefficient - a combined parameter which can quantify the overall microstructure of rock or soil was introduced to study Saprolite and the results are very positive. The study emphasized on the fractal characteristics of PSD and pore structure by applying fractal theory and method. With the results from thin section analysis and mercury injection, it was shown that at least two fractal dimensions Dfl(DB) and Df2 (Dw), exist for both PSD and pore structure. The reasons and physical meanings behind multi-fractal dimensions were analyzed. The fractal dimensions were used to calculate the formation depth and weathering rate of granite at Kowloon. As practical applications, correlations and mathematical models for fractal dimensions and engineering properties of soil were established. The correlation between fractal dimensions and mechanical properties of soil shows that the internal friction angle is mainly governed by Dfl 9 corresponding to coarse grain components, while the cohesion depends on Df2 , corresponding to fine grain components. The correlations between the fractal dimension, friction angle and cohesion are positive linear.Fractal models of PSD and pore size distribution were derived theoretically. Fragmentation mechanism of grains was also analyzed from the viewpoint of fractal. A simple function was derived to define the theoretical relationship between the water characteristic curve (WCC) and fractal dimension, based on a number of classical WCC models. This relationship provides a new analytical tool and research method for hydraulic properties in porous media and solute transportation. It also endues fractal dimensions with new physical meanings and facilitates applications of fractal dimensions in water retention characteristics, ground water movement, and environmental engineering.Based on the conclusions from the fractal characteristics of Saprolite, size effect on strength was expressed by fractal dimension. This function is in complete agreement with classical Weibull model and a simple function was derived to represent the relationship between them.In this thesis, the phenomenon of multi-fractal dimensions was theoretically analyzed and verified with WCC and saprolite PSD results, it was then concluded that multi-fractal can describe the characteristics of one object more accurately, compared to single fractal dimension. The multi-fractal of saprolite reflects its structural heterogeneity and changeable stress environment during the evolution history.

Iraq and world order: a Turkish perspective

G?l, Ayla. 'Iraq and world order: a Turkish perspective', in: 'The Iraq Crisis and World Order: Structural, Institutional and Normative Challenges', (Eds) Thakur, R., Sidhu, W. P. S., United Nations University Press, Hong Kong , pp.114-133, 2006 RAE2008

Empirical Evidence on Relationships between Ex Ante Innovation Pursuit and Post-M&A Performance in the Vietnamese M&A Industry, 2005-2012

This research aims to communicate new results of empirical investigations to learn about the relationship between determination of controlling an acquired firm’s capital, assets and brand versus its capability of innovation and ex post performance of the rising Vietnamese M&A industry in the 2005-2012 period. The analysis employs a categorical data sample, consisting of 212 M&A cases reported by various information sources, and performs a number of logistic regressions with significant results as follows. Firstly, the overall relationship between pre-M&A pursuit’s determination on acquiring resources and performance of the post-M&A performance is found significant. There exist profound effects of a ‘size matters’ strategy in M&A ex post performance. When there is an overwhelming ‘resources acquiring’ strategy, the innovation factor’s explanatory power becomes negligible. Secondly, for negative performance of post-M&A operations, the emphasis on both capital base and asset size, and the brand value at the time of the M&A pursuit is the major explanation in the post-M&A period. So does the absence of innovation as a goal in the pre-M&A period. These two insights together are useful in careful M&A planning. Lastly, expensive pre-M&A expenditures tend to adversely affect the post-M&A performance. As a general conclusion, this study shows that innovation can be an important factor to pursue in M&A transitions, together with the need to emphasize and find capable and willing human capital, rather than a capital base (equity or debt) and existing values of the acquired brands.

The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.