Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Detection of coronary stenoses with contrast enhanced, three-dimensional free breathing coronary MR angiography using the gadolinium-based intravascular contrast agent gadocoletic acid (B-22956).

PURPOSE: To determine the diagnostic value of the intravascular contrast agent gadocoletic acid (B-22956) in three-dimensional, free breathing coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for stenosis detection in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease. METHODS: Eighteen patients underwent three-dimensional, free breathing coronary MRA of the left and right coronary system before and after intravenous application of a single dose of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) using three different dose regimens (group A 0.050 mmol/kg; group B 0.075 mmol/kg; group C 0.100 mmol/kg). Precontrast scanning followed a coronary MRA standard non-contrast T2 preparation/turbo-gradient echo sequence (T2Prep); for postcontrast scanning an inversion-recovery gradient echo sequence was used (real-time navigator correction for both scans). In pre- and postcontrast scans quantitative analysis of coronary MRA data was performed to determine the number of visible side branches, vessel length and vessel sharpness of each of the three coronary arteries (LAD, LCX, RCA). The number of assessable coronary artery segments was determined to calculate sensitivity and specificity for detection of stenosis > or = 50% on a segment-to-segment basis (16-segment-model) in pre- and postcontrast scans with x-ray coronary angiography as the standard of reference. RESULTS: Dose group B (0.075 mmol/kg) was preferable with regard to improvement of MR angiographic parameters: in postcontrast scans all MR angiographic parameters increased significantly except for the number of visible side branches of the left circumflex artery. In addition, assessability of coronary artery segments significantly improved postcontrast in this dose group (67 versus 88%, p < 0.01). Diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy) was 83, 77 and 78% for precontrast and 86, 95 and 94% for postcontrast scans. CONCLUSIONS: The use of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) results in an improvement of MR angiographic parameters, asssessability of coronary segments and detection of coronary stenoses > or = 50%.

EORTC Radiation Oncology Group quality assurance platform: establishment of a digital central review facility.

OBJECTIVE: Quality assurance (QA) in clinical trials is essential to ensure treatment is safely and effectively delivered. As QA requirements have increased in complexity in parallel with evolution of radiation therapy (RT) delivery, a need to facilitate digital data exchange emerged. Our objective is to present the platform developed for the integration and standardization of QART activities across all EORTC trials involving RT. METHODS: The following essential requirements were identified: secure and easy access without on-site software installation; integration within the existing EORTC clinical remote data capture system; and the ability to both customize the platform to specific studies and adapt to future needs. After retrospective testing within several clinical trials, the platform was introduced in phases to participating sites and QART study reviewers. RESULTS: The resulting QA platform, integrating RT analysis software installed at EORTC Headquarters, permits timely, secure, and fully digital central DICOM-RT based data review. Participating sites submit data through a standard secure upload webpage. Supplemental information is submitted in parallel through web-based forms. An internal quality check by the QART office verifies data consistency, formatting, and anonymization. QART reviewers have remote access through a terminal server. Reviewers evaluate submissions for protocol compliance through an online evaluation matrix. Comments are collected by the coordinating centre and institutions are informed of the results. CONCLUSIONS: This web-based central review platform facilitates rapid, extensive, and prospective QART review. This reduces the risk that trial outcomes are compromised through inadequate radiotherapy and facilitates correlation of results with clinical outcomes.

Family-based affirmative action? Subversion and resilience strategies of gay father families

The present doctoral dissertation is aimed at analyzing how and with what consequences gay father families and their children’s schools negotiate possible differences in the construction of family and gender at home and in the families’ social milieus. This objective fits in with the broader goal of researching how family-school interactons are influenced by the social context such as hegemonic masculinity (Connell, 2002). The thesis is based on qualitative fieldwork carried out with 18 nonheterosexual parent families in Spain, comprising 30 interviews with 44 people. The principal participant group were 14 de novo (adoptive and surrogacy) gay father families with resident preadolescent children. The findings revealed that all the de novo families assumed open communication strategies at school with inclusive consequences: apart from incidental questions and reactions of surprise, the children did not suffer homophobic bullying. The analisis showed that the necessary condition for inclusion was not the open communication but rather illocutionary orientation (Habermas, 1984; Soler & Flecha, 2010), understood as the parents’ sensitivity to the attitudes of their children and schools. The schools received the families in an inclusive manner, which, however, was only receptive and not proactive, therefore some of the families (reconstituted ones), coerced by the social context, got excluded. Gender relations at home were predominantly androgynous, and outside home predominantly traditional, yet the children negotiated this difference with inclusive consequences. They participated in hegemonic collective practices, thus confirming the thesis on the similarity between homo- and heterosexual-parent families (Golombok, 2006). Consistently, also the families’ identity politics was “assimilationist” and non-queer. Admittedly, the analisis showed that such a politics was increased by social expectations. Still, the findings suggest that educational and other family policies should draw on broad agendas of gender and family diversity rather than on the politics of difference and the unique status of LGB families.

Preliminary Experience in Treatment of Papillary and Macular Retinoblastoma: Evaluation of Local Control and Local Complications After Treatment with Linear Accelerator-Based Stereotactic Radiotherapy with Micromultileaf Collimator as Second-Line or Salvage Treatment after chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: To determine the local control and complication rates for children with papillary and/or macular retinoblastoma progressing after chemotherapy and undergoing stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) with a micromultileaf collimator. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 2004 and 2008, 11 children (15 eyes) with macular and/or papillary retinoblastoma were treated with SRT. The mean age was 19 months (range, 2-111). Of the 15 eyes, 7, 6, and 2 were classified as International Classification of Intraocular Retinoblastoma Group B, C, and E, respectively. The delivered dose of SRT was 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions using a dedicated micromultileaf collimator linear accelerator. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 20 months (range, 13-39). Local control was achieved in 13 eyes (87%). The actuarial 1- and 2-year local control rates were both 82%. SRT was well tolerated. Late adverse events were reported in 4 patients. Of the 4 patients, 2 had developed focal microangiopathy 20 months after SRT; 1 had developed a transient recurrence of retinal detachment; and 1 had developed bilateral cataracts. No optic neuropathy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Linear accelerator-based SRT for papillary and/or macular retinoblastoma in children resulted in excellent tumor control rates with acceptable toxicity. Additional research regarding SRT and its intrinsic organ-at-risk sparing capability is justified in the framework of prospective trials.

Neuroendocrine Tumors (NETs): A population-based study of incidence and survival in Girona province, 1994-2004

Els tumors neuroendocrins (TNEs) són un grup de neoplàsies poc freqüents i heterogènies i amb un ampli espectre d’agressivitat. Hi ha molt poca informació epidemiològica a nivell mundial, l’objectiu d’aquest estudi ha estat el de reportar-ne les dades a la província de Girona. Hem inclòs tots els codis de la ICD-O3 que codifiquen un TNE, període 1994-2002. Hem identificat 698 tumors. Es reporten les dades tant de la casuística com les taxes d’incidència i supervivència de cada TNE per separat. Els resultats són consistents amb les publicacions europees. El fet d’haver reportat la incidència i la supervivència dels TNEs a Girona contribueix a un millor coneixement d’aquestes neoplàsies.

Molecular Modeling Approaches for Determining Gene Function: application to a Putative Poly-A Binding Protein from Leishmania amazonensis (LaPABP)

The great expansion in the number of genome sequencing projects has revealed the importance of computational methods to speed up the characterization of unknown genes. These studies have been improved by the use of three dimensional information from the predicted proteins generated by molecular modeling techniques. In this work, we disclose the structure-function relationship of a gene product from Leishmania amazonensis by applying molecular modeling and bioinformatics techniques. The analyzed sequence encodes a 159 aminoacids polypeptide (estimated 18 kDa) and was denoted LaPABP for its high homology with poly-A binding proteins from trypanosomatids. The domain structure, clustering analysis and a three dimensional model of LaPABP, basically obtained by homology modeling on the structure of the human poly-A binding protein, are described. Based on the analysis of the electrostatic potential mapped on the model's surface and conservation of intramolecular contacts responsible for folding stabilization we hypothesize that this protein may have less avidity to RNA than it's L. major counterpart but still account for a significant functional activity in the parasite. The model obtained will help in the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to elucidate the mechanism of gene expression in trypanosomatids and serve as a starting point for its exploration as a potential source of targets for a rational chemotherapy.

Model-based appraisal of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Northern Ireland

In 2009, the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group (SARG) at Sheffield University developed the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0 (SAPM) to appraise the potential impact of alcohol policies, including different levels of MUP, for the population of England. In 2013, SARG were commissioned by the DHSSPS and the Department for Social Development to adapt the Sheffield Model to NI in order to appraise the potential impact of a range of alcohol pricing policies. The present report represents the results of this work. Estimates from the Northern Ireland (NI) adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model - version 3 - (SAPM3) suggest: 1. Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) policies would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, alcohol related harms (including alcohol-related deaths, hospitalisations, crimes and workplace absences) and the costs associated with those harms. 2. A ban on below-cost selling (implemented as a ban on selling alcohol for below the cost of duty plus the VAT payable on that duty) would have a negligible impact on alcohol consumption or related harms. 3. A ban on price-based promotions in the off-trade, either alone or in tandem with an MUP policy would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, related harms and associated costs. 4. MUP and promotion ban policies would only have a small impact on moderate drinkers at all levels of income. Somewhat larger impacts would be experienced by increasing risk drinkers, with the most substantial effects being experienced by high risk drinkers. 5. MUP and promotion ban policies would have larger impacts on those in poverty, particularly high risk drinkers, than those not in poverty. However, those in poverty also experience larger relative gains in health and are estimated to marginally reduce their spending due to their reduced drinking under the majority of policies åÊ

Report of the Working Group on Bacterial Meningitis and Related Conditions

Meningococcal disease is a serious condition with high morbidity and significant mortality. The Department of Health and Children’s Working Group on Bacterial Meningitis and Related Conditions has monitored the epidemiology of Meningococcal disease and in 1997, in its first report, proposed strategies to prevent this infection and its complications. This report has been reviewed and updated and a second report issued in July 1999. This Report describes the epidemiology of Meningococcal disease and includes practical guidance in relation to the management of clusters and chemoprophylaxis. The Report also includes guidelines in relation to the hospital based management of suspected Meningococcal Sepsis/Meningitis and which can be adapted depending on local circumstances Download the Report here

Analyzing complex rock slope deformation at Stampa, western Norway, by integrating geomorphology, kinematics and numerical modeling

The unstable rock slope, Stampa, above the village of Flåm, Norway, shows signs of both active and postglacial gravitational deformation over an area of 11 km2. Detailed structural field mapping, annual differential Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveys, as well as geomorphic analysis of high-resolution digital elevation models based on airborne and terrestrial laser scanning indicate that slope deformation is complex and spatially variable. Numerical modeling was used to investigate the influence of former rockslide activity and to better understand the failure mechanism. Field observations, kinematic analysis and numerical modeling indicate a strong structural control of the unstable area. Based on the integration of the above analyses, we propose that the failure mechanism is dominated by (1) a toppling component, (2) subsiding bilinear wedge failure and (3) planar sliding along the foliation at the toe of the unstable slope. Using differential GNSS, 18 points were measured annually over a period of up to 6 years. Two of these points have an average yearly movement of around 10 mm/year. They are located at the frontal cliff on almost completely detached blocks with volumes smaller than 300,000 m3. Large fractures indicate deep-seated gravitational deformation of volumes reaching several 100 million m3, but the movement rates in these areas are below 2 mm/year. Two different lobes of prehistoric rock slope failures were dated with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. While the northern lobe gave an average age of 4,300 years BP, the southern one resulted in two different ages (2,400 and 12,000 years BP), which represent most likely multiple rockfall events. This reflects the currently observable deformation style with unstable blocks in the northern part in between Joasete and Furekamben and no distinct blocks but a high rockfall activity around Ramnanosi in the south. With a relative susceptibility analysis it is concluded that small collapses of blocks along the frontal cliff will be more frequent. Larger collapses of free-standing blocks along the cliff with volumes > 100,000 m3, thus large enough to reach the fjord, cannot be ruled out. A larger collapse involving several million m3 is presently considered of very low likelihood.

Perfusion ct based thrombolysis in acute ischaemic stroke

Background Despite use in clinical practice and trials of thrombolysis, a non-contrast CT is not sensitive for identifying penumbral tissue in acute stroke. This study evaluated how it compares with physiological imaging using CT perfusion.Methods 40 imaging datasets with non-contrast CT (NCCT) and perfusion CT (CTP) were retrospectively identified. 2 sets of observers (n¼6) and a neuroradiologist made a blind evaluation of the images. Inter-observer agreement was calculated for identifying ischaemic change on NCCT, and abnormalities on cerebral blood flow, time to peak and cerebral blood volume maps. A prospective cohort of 73 patients with anterior circulation cortical strokes were thrombolysed based on qualitative assessment of penumbral tissue on CTP within 3 h of stroke onset. Functional outcome was assessed at 3 months.Results Inter-rater agreement was moderate (k¼0.54) for early ischaemic change on NCCT. Perfusion maps improved this to substantial for deficit in cerebral blood volume (k¼0.67) and almost perfect for time to peak and cerebral blood flow (both k¼0.87). In the prospective arm, 58.9% of patients with cortical strokes were thrombolysed. There was no significant difference in attainment of complete recovery (p¼0.184) between the thrombolysed and nonthrombolysed group.Conclusions We demonstrate how perfusion CT aids clinical decision- making in acute stroke. Good functional outcomes from thrombolysis can be safely achieved using this physiologically informed approach.

Identification of snails within the Bulinus africanus group from East Africa by multiplex SNaPshotTManalysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms within the cytochrome oxidase subunit I

Identification of populations of Bulinus nasutus and B. globosus from East Africa is unreliable using characters of the shell. In this paper, a molecular method of identification is presented for each species based on DNA sequence variation within the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) as detected by a novel multiplexed SNaPshotTM assay. In total, snails from 7 localities from coastal Kenya were typed using this assay and variation within shell morphology was compared to reference material from Zanzibar. Four locations were found to contain B. nasutus and 2 locations were found to contain B. globosus. A mixed population containing both B. nasutus and B. globosus was found at Kinango. Morphometric variation between samples was considerable and UPGMA cluster analysis failed to differentiate species. The multiplex SNaPshotTM assay is an important development for more precise methods of identification of B. africanus group snails. The assay could be further broadened for identification of other snail intermediate host species.

SwissDock, a protein-small molecule docking web service based on EADock DSS.

Most life science processes involve, at the atomic scale, recognition between two molecules. The prediction of such interactions at the molecular level, by so-called docking software, is a non-trivial task. Docking programs have a wide range of applications ranging from protein engineering to drug design. This article presents SwissDock, a web server dedicated to the docking of small molecules on target proteins. It is based on the EADock DSS engine, combined with setup scripts for curating common problems and for preparing both the target protein and the ligand input files. An efficient Ajax/HTML interface was designed and implemented so that scientists can easily submit dockings and retrieve the predicted complexes. For automated docking tasks, a programmatic SOAP interface has been set up and template programs can be downloaded in Perl, Python and PHP. The web site also provides an access to a database of manually curated complexes, based on the Ligand Protein Database. A wiki and a forum are available to the community to promote interactions between users. The SwissDock web site is available online at http://www.swissdock.ch. We believe it constitutes a step toward generalizing the use of docking tools beyond the traditional molecular modeling community.

Interim Report of the Steering Group on the Review of the Mental Health Act 2001

Interim Report of the Steering Group on the Review of the Mental Health Act 2001 There is a commitment in the Programme for Government to review the Mental Health Act 2001. In line with this, Minister Lynch appointed a Steering Group to review the Mental Health Act 2001. Their report is now with an Expert Group. The review takes accounts of the significant changes in thinking about the delivery of mental health services that have taken place in the last ten years (including the introduction of the UN Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities (CRPD), the shift to community based services, the adoption of a recovery approach in every aspect of service delivery and the involvement of service users as partners in their own care and in the development of the service). Click here to download PDF 471kb

Two new Culicoides of the paraensis species group (Diptera:Ceratopogonidae) from the Amazonian region of Peru

Two new species of the Culicoides paraensis species group, C. diversus Felippe-Bauer and C. peruvianus Felippe-Bauer, are described and illustrated based on female specimens from Amazonian region of Peru. A systematic key, table with numerical characters of females, and distribution of species of the C. paraensis group are given.